With 46 games to go after the Marlins defeated the Giants 2-1 in a great pitching performance from Josh Beckett, the Florida Marlins have a great chance to win the Wild Card. However, they are not the only ones. Philadelphia, Washington, New-York, and the current Wild-Card leader, Houston all can say they are still "in it". It is very easy to say that Houston has a huge advantage in this race, not only with their great pitching, but the factor that helps them the most is the fact that the top 4 teams in the Wild Card chasing the Astros are all in the strong NL-East. Torward the end of the season, these 4 strong teams play each other numerous times and could very well take each other out of the race without Houston having to play great ball. Let's take a look at these teams and their remaining schedule rated by how I think these teams will finish the season in the Wild Card race.

 

(1)Florida - Call it homerism, favoritism, or whatver, but I truly believe the Marlins will win the Wild Card now that they are healthy. Like the Astros, the Marlins offer a "big-three" trio of Willis, Beckett, and Burnett. The Marlins also offer a good, but sometimes unconsistent pitcher in Brian Moehler and an up and coming star in Jason Vargas. The Florida Marlin's Bullpen will either do a great job denying a win, or lead the other team by their hand in an easy win. Todd Jones has been stellar for the Fish, and Villone looks to be a good addition. Mota, Mecir, Alfonseca, Messenger, and pretty much any other member of the bullpen are inconsistent to say the least, but could be decent enough to allow the Marlins to get to the playoffs.

 

If the Fish win the Wild Card this year, it will mean that the offense finally played the way they should. With arguably the second best lineup in the NL with JP, Castillo and the big bats of Cabrera and Delgado, the Marlins can score when everyone is on the same page. One thing that has killed the Marlins this year has been Mike Lowell who has struggled to say the least. In fact, Mike Lowell has been so bad, that its almost like the Marlins never acquired Carlos Delgado this year and they are only playing with 2 big bats, with Delgado filling in for what Lowell did last year.

 

14 of the next 20 games for the Marlins are at home against very weak NL-West teams and with almost everyone back for the Marlins, the Fish could make a strong move in the Wild Card rankings. The big series of the year will obviously be September 12-15 where the Fish play the Astros. You might even be able to make the argument that who ever wins that series could win the Wild Card.

 

The Marlins have the best balanced team of all the Wild Card contenders with solid pitching, offense, and the end part of the pen. This team should finish first in the Wild Card with Beckett and Burnett looking stronger and stronger each game of the season.

 

 

 

(2)Houston - With a rotation lead by Clemens,Oswalt, and the surprising Pettitte, the Astros are considered to be the favorite in this Wild Care race to most people. The Bullpen has been pretty good with Mike Gallo having a surprisingly good year thus far, Dan Wheeler having a 1.87 ERA in 53 Innings Pitched, and a great young closer in Brad Linge. Pitching in general is a strong point for this team, which is usually the strong point of most playoff-caliber teams.

 

Although the Astros are arguably the best Pitching team in this Wild Card Race, this team will only go as far as their hitting will go, and that is not saying a lot. Willy Taveras, who is a rookie, is leading the team in hits and sets up the entire offense. Other than Taveras, Ensberg, and maybe Biggio are the only guys who give pitchers fear. With Berkman and Lane having an honorable mention.

 

As far as schedule goes, the Astros have a medium difficulty schedule with them facing the Cardinals and the Cubs in a couple of series, and of course, a 4 game series with the Marlins. I say they finish second.

 

(3)Nationals - If the Wild Card were measured with who plays the hardest, the Nationals would probably be winning the Wild Card. Unfortunately the Nationals are like the Houston Astros, they can't produce enough runs to wins. With the Nats being dead last in the NL in hits, average, homers, RBIs, runs, Slugging, and pretty much any other important offensive stat you can think of, the Nationals tend to win with good defense and an good rotation lead by former Marlin Livan Hernandez.

 

Loaiza and John Patterson have had decent years, but not good enough years to be able to give this team a good chance to win with their bad offense. Bullpen wise Cordero has been great, but has slipped a bit in this second half.

 

Nick Johnson is their most important bat in the lineup. Castilla and Wilkerson have more homeruns, but have struggled this year getting the AVG. above .250. I liked to watch this team, but the 1-run wins are starting to catch up with the Nats, and Washington needed more during the Trading Period than Preston Willson to make a real run at the Wild Card. However, this team tends to win and will probably finish third in the Wild Card.

 

(4)Philadelphia - Those darn Phillies won't go away even though you look at their team and wonder why they have been so good. The Phillies are pretty much the polar opposite of the Astros. Good Hitting and No Pitching. The top 3 pitchers in the Phillies "Pitching Rotation" have an ERA above 4.30. The bullpen, which was thought to be a strong part of the team going into the season hasn't been lights out either. Other than Wagner, most of the Bullpen ERAs are above 4.00 and give up a lot of leads in the latter part of games. This is probably the biggest reason why the Phillies won't win the Wild Card.

 

If by any weird chance the Phillies win the Wild Card, it will be due to their hitting. The young Ryan Howard has made Phillies fans forget about that Thome guy and Philadelphia has a nice lineup that include Rollins, Abreu ,Burrell, Utley, and Howard. No doubt their Philadelphia version of Coors Field that they call Citizens Bank Park help their hitting. However, what will probably kill the Phillies is that 12 of the last 15 games in the regular season for the Philladelphia Phillies, mostly against the strong NL East, is on the road. Philladelphia is 5 games under .500 on the road and don't have the pitching to get them the Wild Card. I think they finish 4th in the Wild Card.

 

(5)Mets - Although the Mets official quote for this year is "Next Year is Now", the Mets and their easy spending attitude will have to wait another year to see some post season action. With outfielders running into each other, highly over paid players, and a pitching rotation that only has Pedro to offer, the Mets still need to add some pitching and hitting depth to their roster.

 

Although the Mets are just 6th in the NL in team ERA, right behind Florida, the Mets dont have the consistent pitching or hitting to consider themselves play off contenders. The Mets still need to learn that you need 8 GOOD guys in the field/lineup to be good, not 2 or 3, and FIVE good guys in the rotation to be good, not 1. Where can a player who puts up slightly better Juan Encarncion-like career numbers get a 119 million dollar contract, which is also the gross national product of the Falkland Islands?? The METS of course!!! The Mets in the future need to stop over paying players, and start to spread out all that money they spend on 3 or 4 players instead of just 1 or 2. The schedule doesn't favor the Mets either with a tough 10 game stretch on the road where they have to face Atlanta, St Louis, and Florida, arguably the top three teams in the NL. "Next Year is Next Year" for the Mets and they still need some more pieces to go to the playoffs. What a surprise, the Mets finish last on another list....

 

Wow longest post I think I have ever written!! Tell me what you guys think about this, opinions are encouraged!!!!

wow... great post... a look at the schedule shows we play every team in the wild card chase in September!! That's sick.

 

Next 14 games: teams under .500 (SF, SD, LA, Mil, Chi)

Final 32 games: teams over .500 (StL, NY, Was, Phl, Hou, Atl)

 

I think they probably have to go 10-4 in the next 14 games against the weaker teams, and then somehow pull off 20-12 in the final 32 games against the better competition. That's .750 baseball, that's tough, but that's what it's gonna take to get to 90 wins.

I really hate to admit it but I think The Phillies are going to win the wild card...their finally realizing the talent they have had for the past three years...watch out if Bell and Lieberthal begin to produce

I really hate to admit it but I think The Phillies are going to win the wild card...their finally realizing the talent they have had for the past three years...watch out if Bell and Lieberthal begin to produce

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I doubt you hate to admit it, I think you are just finally showing your true colors. I am just kidding, you might be right, although the poster has a point about not playing very many games in that launching pad they call home. It's really still a crap shoot right now.

I was just trying to get a response to you, I went back and edited my first post. August is tough, because the month itself is a giant momentum killer for us, first 4 games in August and last 3 games in August are against the Cardinals, making it hard to start and end the month with much momentum.

I don't understand the no pitching comment.....AJ, Dontrelle and Josh would have high ERA's in that park....

 

Myers is an ace, Padilla's been great lately, Lieber and Lidle are inconsistent but when you have a pen like that you don't need your SP's goin more then 6.

Post edited.

Well, I am not a Mets fan, but it sounds like you are. The only other time I've heard that song is while watching Seinfeld. And whats with the big pitcure of a KKK member?

I'm not going to ruin this thread so I'll start another one.

Anyway, hopefully the fire Beckett showed tonight will rub off on everyone else. Probably no pitcher that's funner to watch when they are pissed off and or fired up. Big Tex being pissed/fired up=unhittable. You were right about Padilla FFIPA, Padilla has been extremely decent as of late. I went and looked at his game log and must say I was suprised. I'd say replacing Thome with Howard and letting Utley take a fulltime starting role bolstered that team. As for the Nationals, well they are just an odd team, to get as many victories as they have with the holes they have in their offense. Houston lost to the Pirates tonight, with Lidge blowing it and even after Clemens pitched on heck of a game, maybe that will stunt their progress. But their big 3 is as good as anybodys, and Backe is certainly capable if needed to start in a long series The Mets, like the poster said, have Pedro and an overachieving Kris Benson, after that their pitching is garbage, and their offense and defense took a hit with the loss of Cameron and Beltran. As for us, we are getting into a stretch of games with teams under .500 and are getting 3 of our 4 big bats in Lo Duca, Delgado, and Enc back just in time. So I'd say we have as good a chance as anybody. Now lets Git R Dun.

Nice post.

 

However the only team that has really shown they will play to their potential is Houston.

 

For the Marlins to win the wildcard, particularly considering the tough road ahead, they will have to play better than they have all season. Possible, yes....will it happen? - Your guess is as good as mine.

yes we can do it

I don't understand the no pitching comment.....AJ, Dontrelle and Josh would have high ERA's in that park....

 

Myers is an ace, Padilla's been great lately, Lieber and Lidle are inconsistent but when you have a pen like that you don't need your SP's goin more then 6.

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Sorry but AJ, Willis, and Josh WOULD NOT have high ERAs in any park.

 

They can pitch anywhere.

I don't understand the no pitching comment.....AJ, Dontrelle and Josh would have high ERA's in that park....

 

Myers is an ace, Padilla's been great lately, Lieber and Lidle are inconsistent but when you have a pen like that you don't need your SP's goin more then 6.

901500[/snapback]

 

 

Sorry but AJ, Willis, and Josh WOULD NOT have high ERAs in any park.

 

They can pitch anywhere.

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Not in Colorado

 

Or San Francisco

 

Or Atlanta

 

:plain

I don't understand the no pitching comment.....AJ, Dontrelle and Josh would have high ERA's in that park....

 

Myers is an ace, Padilla's been great lately, Lieber and Lidle are inconsistent but when you have a pen like that you don't need your SP's goin more then 6.

901500[/snapback]

 

 

Sorry but AJ, Willis, and Josh WOULD NOT have high ERAs in any park.

 

They can pitch anywhere.

901585[/snapback]

 

Really??? Then Josh would be better then .500......Dontrelle would be 16-0 and never lose in SF and AJ wouldnt be so damn inconsistent.

I don't understand the no pitching comment.....AJ, Dontrelle and Josh would have high ERA's in that park....

 

Myers is an ace, Padilla's been great lately, Lieber and Lidle are inconsistent but when you have a pen like that you don't need your SP's goin more then 6.

901500[/snapback]

 

 

Sorry but AJ, Willis, and Josh WOULD NOT have high ERAs in any park.

 

They can pitch anywhere.

901585[/snapback]

 

Really??? Then Josh would be better then .500......Dontrelle would be 16-0 and never lose in SF and AJ wouldnt be so damn inconsistent.

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Well Josh is 11 and 6 this year so he is above .500, expecting a young guy like Dontrelle to go 16-0 is impossible to ask, and for once, Aj has shown some consistency this year going 10-6, and hasn't allowed more than 3 runs per start in his last 5 starts.

 

Myers with his 3.46 ERA is decent but not a true ACE. Sure, he is the Ace of the Phillies, but that isn't saying much with their rotation. As far as the Bullpen, other than Billy Wagner and Aaron Fultz, the Phillies Bullpen has been underperforming, especially since they were thought to have one of the best in the NL.

 

As I said in my post to start this thread, the Phillies play 12 of their last 15 games of the season on the road!!!! Mostly against NL East teams! If the Phillies are still around by then, they surely will be out of the race after that tough road trip.