February 10, 200620 yr Beyondtheboxscore.com did a piece on the Fish of 2006(projections) compared to 2005. Lots of numbers there, so alot of you are going to get upset and throw a fit, but it's good reading nonetheless. I want to apologize all day long for the horrible title to this post. Seriously, I am sorry. The Florida Marlins had more turnover than any other team in the majors this offseason, trading away Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, Guillermo Mota, Paul Lo Duca, Juan Pierre, and Carlos Delgado while letting Juan Encarnacion, A.J. Burnett and others walk via free agency. They replaced basically all of these players with prospects or cheap free agent signings, with the exception of a few positions where they have prospects or farmhands to fill in. Let's take a look at the production they received in 2005 from each position in the lineup, and then compare that to the projected figures of the newcomers using PECOTA's projected AVG/OBP/SLG as well as two new statistics I've been working on. The first of these is pNRAA, or positional Net Runs Above Average. I finally made the positional adjustment that some people have been asking for, with help from Richard Wade, and it should certainly help to make NRAA more accurate. I of course will be keeping track of raw NRAA as well, beause that certainly has its own uses and I would be crazy not to. The second really is not a new statistic at all, but I figured out how to calculate NRAA based off of PECOTA projections once an extra formula or two were figured out to translate certain stats. This will be useful in determining the projected NRAA of minor leaguers, which the Marlins are certainly full of in 2006. The first line is 2005's production, and the second line is the PECOTA projection. I will use the pNRAA/Games Played version of NRAA in order to assess cumulative value from that position. On to the rosters... 2005 Catcher: Paul Lo Duca .284/.334/.380; 1.02 pNRAA/GP 2006 Catcher: Josh Willingham .257/.361/.439; 13.87 pNRAA/GP This is a position where I think the Marlins actually improved, thanks to Willingham's bat. His glove is a liability according to Rate2, as he is projected to land somewhere around 94, which is -6 runs above average per 100 games played defensively. Lo Duca does not have the bat of Young Joshua though, so glove or no, this is an upgrade. If he can't handle defensive duties behind the plate, there is a gaping hole in left field for the Marlins he can fill, although that certainly diminishes his accomplishments somewhat. Catcher's average EqA in 2005 was .244, while average EqA in left was .272; a large difference which Willingham's .289 projected EqA would better work with behind the plate. 2005 First Base: Carlos Delgado .301/.399/.582; 18.35 pNRAA/GP 2006 First Base: Mike Jacobs .265/.324/.491; -14.10 pNRAA/GP I think it was obvious there would be some decline moving from Delgado to Mike Jacobs, but this is a serious hit if the projection rings true. The good news is that Jacobs may platoon with Wes Helms, who is a lefty masher, which Jacobs is not. A straight switch from Delgado to Jacobs would not be something to look forward to, but the addition of say, Mike Helms or Wes Jacobs is much more appealing, although still not Delgado. Then again, how many Delgado's are there in the league? 2005 Second Base: Luis Castillo .301/.391/.374; 19.0 pNRAA/GP 2006 Second Base: Pokey Reese .214/.277/.294; -1.64 pNRAA/GP You might be asking yourself, "How is it possible that he is only a run and a half below average if he can't slug over .300? Well, as always with Reese, he is expected to have superior defense, better than Luis Castillo. Two issues: in many fewer games (Reese...injured? Noooooooo!) and with that above batting line, which I will retype simply because it bears repeating: .214/.277/.294. The dropoff in production at second base is substantial thanks to Castillo have more positionally adjusted value than Carlos Delgado. Something tells me the Twins problems at second base are over for a few years. 2005 Third Base: Mike Lowell .236/.298/.360; -1.09 pNRAA/GP 2006 Third Base: Miguel Cabrera .305/.378/.553; 37.0 pNRAA/GP With Cabrera returning to his natural position, and Mike Lowell leaving the team, the Marlins improve at third base drastically, installing a legitimate MVP candidate at a somewhat average position in baseball. Of course, Cabrera moving to third base means that left field will be patrolled by Eric Reed, but we'll get there soon enough. 2005 Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez .264/.319/.368; -10.59 pNRAA/GP 2006 Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez .258/.313/.367; -11.49 pNRAA/GP Nothing really lost or gained here, especially since I see Hanley Ramirez's projection as somewhat pessimistic. I don't necessarily see him hitting any better than shown in his projection, but I expect him to possibly field better than projected, which could add another point or two into his pNRAA. By the way, a side note on pNRAA here: Since the league average EqA for each position will most likely differ in 2006 from the 2005 figures, I'll adjust these figures later to see how accurate they were when the season is over and I revisit the projections we have done. Back to Hanley and Gonzalez. Without making a trade, these two shortstop switched teams, and I expect Gonzalez to have the better season in 2006. Hanley will most likely be a better player in the future (if the attitude problems he is known to have are adjusted properly) but to be honest, I'd rather have Dustin Pedroia at short than Hanley in the long run. Apparently, so does Boston. 2005 Left Field: Miguel Cabrera .323/.385/.561; 25.0 pNRAA/GP 2006 Left Field: Eric Reed .246/.290/.335; -17.82 pNRAA/GP This is the one position that does not look that good at all if the projections come true. It is not just PECOTA that thinks poorly of Eric Reed; ZiPS sees him hitting .246/.293/.303, and his high end PECOTA projection is only .278/.326/.394, which would still be a great deal below Cabrera's 2005, coming in at -3.04 pNRAA/GP; still below average. Of course, "replacing" Cabrera's production in the lineup was not going to be easy for anyone, unless Josh Willingham is moved from catcher. Even then, there will still most likely be a difference in value. The good news on Reed is that he seems to be a fine defensive player, better than Cabrera who was basically average, but without the ability to hit the ball well. If he is able to reach his 90th percentile PECOTA projection, which is entirely possible (that is why it is part of the projection) then the Marlins can deal with the transition, given some of the improvement in other areas. If he hits his weighted mean...well, I guess we will see what it is like to have two guys who hit like Pokey on the team. 2005 Center Field: Juan Pierre .276/.326/.354; -4.49 pNRAA/GP 2006 Center Field: Chris Aguila .255/.318/.410; -2.36 pNRAA/GP Well look at that. The Marlins actually look like they will improve in center in 2006 by playing Chris Aguila. By the way, his 75th percentile projection has him a tad above league average at a .262 EqA, while his 90th percentile stands at .286. If he were able to do either of those, or somewhere in between, it would be a serious boost, considering Pierre was below average as a hitter and a centerfielder last year, both offensively and defensively. I have a good feeling about Aguila; it may be the other projections I have seen: ZiPS: .272/.333/.433 Bill James: .288/.339/.438 PECOTA seems to think that he will hit for a lower average, which accounts for the difference in On-Base and Slugging as well. If Aguila plays a full season he should amass the value of an average player or possibly better if everything goes well. I seem to have more faith in him than I do Eric Reed...I can't quite put my finger on it yet, but the feeling is there. 2005 Right Field: Juan Encarnacion .287/.349/.447; -3.64 pNRAA/GP 2006 Right Field: Jeremy Hermida .257/.361/.439; 3.10 pNRAA/GP The reason that Hermida and Encarnacion's pNRAA is so low is due to the fact that the average EqA for 2005 in right field was .274, the second highest among non-DH position players. Finishing at the top was first base, where the average was a whopping .284, or .002 higher than top prosect Jeremy Hermida's projected EqA for 2006. I think we can expect Hermida to perform better than projected in 2006, while we can expect Encarnacion to possibly regress somewhat from his 2005. Encarncion regressing doesn't hurt or help the Marlins in the upcoming season, but I figured I would mention it while I have you here. Now to be honest, I do not think I can simply add up pNRAA to get a single run value for the team. That said, I'm doing it anyways. The 2005 Marlins positional starters accounted for 43.56 pNRAA total; the 2006 projected lineup comes out to 6.56 pNRAA. If we account for Wes Helms and Mike Jacobs as one player, assuming Jacobs gets, lets say, 75% of the starts at first base, then the new number is most likely closer to 10 pNRAA/GP. That figure is much closer to league average than previous, and with the pitching staff looking to be mostly patchworked together, Florida is in for a long season. The good news is that it is a long season with a long list of prospects to workout. The future is bright in Miami; just not the immediate future.
February 10, 200620 yr I don't agree with some of those projections. I think Hermida and Willingham will both hit for higher averages, and I'm not so sure Aguila will be that productive. I'm also pretty sure it'll be Willingham in left with Olivo in center, and Reed/Aguila will fight for center. Either way, it is a pretty interesting article to read. I'd like to read more on the process of where they got these numbers from if you have the info, Rampino.
February 10, 200620 yr I disagree, and I'm not insulting the author because he is doing this with the team as presently constitued. However: Eric Reed will not start for this team. I'm convinced they get Gathright at some point (regardless of who they trade for him) or some cheap veteran OF. Beinfest is not a moron and will not throw Reed out there. He knows they need another OF that can play, and hit at the top of the order. Aguila will become this super sub getting 350-400 AB between all three OF positions. More likely, compared to 2005 numbers: Willingham/Aguila over Lowell is a big upgrade. Olivo/Willingham over LoDuca is a moderate, maybe big, upgrade. Hermida over Encarnacion is a moderate upgrade. Gathright or (FA outfielder like Terrance Long)/Aguila is a wash with Pierre, maybe a moderate upgrade. Cabrera is the same. Hanley is a wash with Alex. Jacobs/Helms from Delgado is a moderate, maybe big, downgrade Clusterf*** at 2B is a big downgrade from Castillo AND Easley, who was not in the article The improvements over Lowell, LoDuca, and Encarnacion should render dowgrades at 2B and 1B to minor at absolute worst. They really aren't losing any power from last year's club, and it's spread out much better in the lineup. If we assume Cabrera hits 35; Hermida, Willingham, and Jacobs 20 each; Olivo, Helms and Aguila 20 combined; and 12 from the middle infield (all modest totals), that's zero power loss from last year. The only thing they are really missing is some of Delgado and Castillos OBP. I don't know if we can expect huge .370+ OBP years from Hermida, Willingham, or Jacobs, or .330+ years from Hanley, Olivo, Uggla/Pokey which could fix this situation, but I think this offense is going to be very comparable at year's end to last year's club. Spreading out the power is going help a lot because the 05' team was very hit or miss. They either scored a ton, or nothing, and it was usually Cabrera or Delgado igniting it when they did.
February 10, 200620 yr I would trade for Gathright and sign Long to play LF. The line-up needs pumped up a little. I would try to get Nick Green from Tampa too. Because if Ramirez isn't ready and starts in the minors....the line-up could get ugly fast.
February 10, 200620 yr I would trade for Gathright and sign Long to play LF. The line-up needs pumped up a little. I would try to get Nick Green from Tampa too. Because if Ramirez isn't ready and starts in the minors....the line-up could get ugly fast. Those three guys really fix up the depth chart for 2006 and makes the lineup and bench pretty solid.
February 10, 200620 yr So this is projecting we'll be about league average? Last year's team may have had a +43, but it sure didn't translate into wins. As the author mentioned, the pitching staff will be cobbled together and likely will be a huge liability.
February 11, 200620 yr Author I would trade for Gathright and sign Long to play LF. The line-up needs pumped up a little. I would try to get Nick Green from Tampa too. Because if Ramirez isn't ready and starts in the minors....the line-up could get ugly fast. Terence Long is complete garbage(no offense to Terence, his boo, his momma, his 3 kids, his nephews, his aunties, and his lady on the side)
February 11, 200620 yr I would trade for Gathright and sign Long to play LF. The line-up needs pumped up a little. I would try to get Nick Green from Tampa too. Because if Ramirez isn't ready and starts in the minors....the line-up could get ugly fast. Terence Long is complete garbage(no offense to Terence, his boo, his momma, his 3 kids, his nephews, his aunties, and his lady on the side) Let's see. Terrence Long hit .311 with runners in scoring position last year. He's much better than Chris Aguila.
February 11, 200620 yr Let's see. Terrence Long hit .311 with runners in scoring position last year. He's much better than Chris Aguila. Cool. Anything better than that?
February 11, 200620 yr If Terrence Long were worth signing someone would have signed him already. There's 29 othe teams out there competing for free agents, heck in the last two weeks the Nationals have signed anyone with a pulse. Besides that he isn't going to add anything to the chances of the Marlins contending in '06. Everyone except perhaps Chum (who will find any excuse to bash and bash and bash) understands this season is focused on developing the players in hand, and building the nucleus of a team for seasons to come. Next thing you know he'll be suggesting the Marlins sign Jose Lima as well.
February 11, 200620 yr There's not too much left out there. At least you don't have to give anything up for Long, he bats left-handed and can hit near the top or in the middle of the order. I see signing him as a no-lose situation. You can leave Willingham at catcher that way. Chris Aguila is 27, and isn't a part of the future......so what's your point? Why is Pokey Reese gonna play.....smart guy?
February 11, 200620 yr Reese is 32 and turns 33 in mid-season. He hasn't hit over .222 in three seasons.
February 11, 200620 yr I would trade for Gathright and sign Long to play LF. The line-up needs pumped up a little. I would try to get Nick Green from Tampa too. Because if Ramirez isn't ready and starts in the minors....the line-up could get ugly fast. Terence Long is complete garbage(no offense to Terence, his boo, his momma, his 3 kids, his nephews, his aunties, and his lady on the side) Let's see. Terrence Long hit .311 with runners in scoring position last year. He's much better than Chris Aguila. LOL wtf is that? Similar example: Mike Lowell eats black beans and rice.
February 11, 200620 yr Allright, here it goes......... Career: Aguila .236 AVG., .632 OPS Long .270 AVG., .725 OPS The last two years Long has hit .279, .295. Is that better?
February 11, 200620 yr If Terrence Long were worth signing someone would have signed him already. There's 29 othe teams out there competing for free agents, heck in the last two weeks the Nationals have signed anyone with a pulse. Besides that he isn't going to add anything to the chances of the Marlins contending in '06. Everyone except perhaps Chum (who will find any excuse to bash and bash and bash) understands this season is focused on developing the players in hand, and building the nucleus of a team for seasons to come. Next thing you know he'll be suggesting the Marlins sign Jose Lima as well. Who said a signing like Long would make them contenders? What it will do is not hand the starting job in the OF to Aguila, Reed, or Abercrombie, all low-ceiling prospects, and give the Marlins atleast 1 OF on their roster with significant MLB experience. I know you like Aguila but they have no contingency plan if he hits .230/.280/.320, which is a very real possibility. Atleast a guy like Long can give you a decent average and a close to league average OBP out of CF if need be. A good case scenario for Aguila's development is he BECOMES Terrence Long (.279/.321/.378). Why not get the original for a minor league invite. I bet Long thinks he can win a starting spot on this club and will do it. And let's say Aguila does match Long's production from 2005. Great! We have a nice bench OF for a few years, and for 2006 we have a decent low-cost L/R platoon for one of the OF spots and a solid bench bat that gives the Marlins a fighting chance of winning some extra ball games. If not, atleast you have Terrence Long in center and you can regroup for 2007 knowing you gave Aguila an honest shot. It seems like you, and many others on this board, are content at letting the entire triple aaa team have their shot in the bigs and for the team to lose 100+ games. Because who cares about trying to win! We are just trying to rebuild for later. That is such a terrible attitude. For one, all the kids are going to play regardless if they bring in 2-3 more veterans to build depth. Everyone is going to get 300+ AB at minimum and show if they have what it takes to be part of this team's future. Guys like Pokey and Long would not steal all the AB from young guys, unless the young guys are absolutely atrocious. Throwing the kids out their to consistently lose is not going encourage their development, and that is exactly what happens if your 6-7-8 is Uggla, Aguila, and Reed, and the top backups are Amezaga, Abercrombie, and Cepicky. Adding some low cost pieces like a Long, (or a pokey, a herges, a moehler), is absolutely critical to the Marlins being able to field a competant baseball team. They can be horrible if they do nothing, or they can atleast have a solid fighting chance for 70, bringing in a Long or Hildago or Alex Sanchez into the CF mix, trading for a Gathright/Green like chum wants, or getting some more bodies into the bullpen or middle infield. Building depth is a good thing, and they can do it at virtually no cost. I personally understand Chum's frustration, because I cannot fathom them fielding a team with this current 25 man roster. All I can hope for is that Beinfest has a secret plan and brings in a few more bodies during spring training through trades, other team's camp cuts, or whats left of current street FA to create more competition. I think he made a huge mistake not going after some other low-cost veterans in the middle infield, like royce clayton, frank menechino, or brent abernathy who all signed minor league deals, and all three would catapult immediatly onto the Marlins depth chart and allow the club to start Hanley in double AA. Big mistake. Honestly, I'm not completely defending that guy because I think chum is as bitter as they come, but am I "bashing and bashing and bashing" the organization also if I have warranted concerns over the makeup of the roster or the whole 'not getting more position player prospects back in the trades' argument? I'm hoping for the best also and that Aguila, Uggla, Hanley all have surprise seasons; Hermida, Willingham, and Jacobs all break out quickly; Resop and Bowyer turn into Donnelly and Shields or Turnbow and Wise; and Olsen, Petit, and Nolasco all immediatly take over rotation spots; but that all isn't going to happen and it is flat out irresponsible for the front office to hang the team, and Girardi, out to dry by not bringing in more depth. Like I said, I hope Beinfest has a plan and fixes some of these problems, because he has missed out on a lot of cheap veterans who could have seriously helped this club. That is very frustrating to me. The clock is ticking.
February 11, 200620 yr Lou, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. Aguila may or may not hit. The fact is no one knows and anyone who says definitively he'll fail is a fool. But if you look at his minor league stats, when he had a chance to play everyday, he tore the freakin' cover off the ball (2003 AA .320, 2004 AAA .312, 2005 AAA .355) and he's going into spring training with a chance to show what he can do. I'm willing to withhold judgement until we see how he performs. The same goes for any number of other young players. I'm not adverse to trading for a Gathright if the deal is right and the need is there but three weeks before spring training starts, it's inconceivable that Long, who made almost $5,000,000 last season is going to come here or anywhere else at the major league minimum or anything approaching it (or sign a minor league deal for even less money) when he could go to Japan and make close to what he made last season. That's the fatal flaw in Chum's argument (the $$$) which isn't really an argument but rather an excuse to keep on bashing the organization in virtually every post in every thread. He's a tired broken record repeating his uneducated and deceitful hate daily. He isn't frustrated, he's enjoying himself emmensely spreading his poison every chance he gets. Then of course is the issue of Long being a perrenial malcontent which is why the A's couldn't get rid of him fast enough is an example what Girardi doesn't need. BTW, I'm not suggesting that it doesn't matter if this teams wins alot of games in 2006, rather what's important is that the team start to find itself and prepare for the future. One misplaced rationalization for bringing in Long is the Reese signing but one has nothing to do with the other. Reese's value is his flexibility at either middle infield position or off the bench, Long on the otherhand only retards the growth of young positional players (who most of us have never seen play either enough to make an intelligent comment on, or at all) without being a significant upgrade with a high price tag and lots of baggage. Early on in this process I was in favor of bringing in a core group of veterans like Grudz, Gaffinino and others but I've seen the light. Girardi wants a young group of players he can mold into something that has the possibility of sticking together through the end of the decade. Mid-thirties veterans with a bad attitude just plain don't fit in. As for the clock ticking as you put it, the clock doesn't start for aother 17 days.
February 11, 200620 yr Lou, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. That's fair enough, but I'd like to address a few points and defend my position better then chum who likes to arbitrarily say "he sucks. we need to get X." Long is just a type of player, an example, rather then THE ONE GUY I want. (sidenote, Long is currently unemployed and needs a job. He would accept a minor league invite under $1 mil with the AB the Marlins can provide). You know I wanted Davanon as a super 4th OF, but obviously that day has passed. I have confidence in Aguila to be that 4th OF, and those stats you list are true, but a lot of it occured in the PCL which tends to over-inflate production. I just don't think he can start 150 games, and right now he is because his competition is Reed, and he flat out sucks. At minimum, my overall point with the OF is, they need to bring in another guy that can log 400 AB at a minimum. Like you said, we don't know if Aguila will hit, but right now he HAS to play. And that's very dangerous. My best case scenario is getting Gathright - splitting Aguila half the time in LF when Willingham is at C or out of the lineup and spotting for Joey and Jeremy in the OF. That's the best for the team and utilization of those players imo. Everyone gets lots of AB and can prove they belong. I hope it happens. They are young enough as is. I just think they need to add another 2-3 guys; an OF, a middle infielder so Hanley can go back to AA/AAA for half a year, or a bullpen arm, to really have a nice mix of veteran/youngsters. Vets: Cabrera, Pokey, Helms, Olivo, another OF, another MI, Willis, Borowski, Moehler, Mitre, Herges, Bump Young: Jacobs, Willingham, Hermida, Aguila, Uggla, Amezaga, Olsen, Petit, Bowyer, Resop, Messenger, Kensing And it's not like Cabrera, Olivo, Mitre, and another OF/MI would necessarily be considered "old." I don't think bringing in another OF, even if its a vet LF and not Gathright, retards the growth of anybody. They are all going to log a lot of AB. It might seem 'oh just getting Reed and Hanley off the team' is really not THAT big of a deal, but if we assume they are starters atleast 2/3rds of the the time right now, which they pretty much are right now, that is like 700-750 AB. I'd like to see those AB going to guys who can hit, even a little bit like Long or Clayton type baseball players. It gives the club a better chance of winning and competing right now, and does not hurt longterm projections on anyone. I think a HUGELY important thing is to let Hanley play everyday in AA/AAA for a few months, and get a callup after break if he improves off his 2005 numbers. Reed just needs the whole year in minors and learn how to walk and work the count a little bit.
February 11, 200620 yr Lou, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. Aguila may or may not hit. The fact is no one knows and anyone who says definitively he'll fail is a fool. But if you look at his minor league stats, when he had a chance to play everyday, he tore the freakin' cover off the ball (2003 AA .320, 2004 AAA .312, 2005 AAA .355) and he's going into spring training with a chance to show what he can do. I'm willing to withhold judgement until we see how he performs. The same goes for any number of other young players. I'm not adverse to trading for a Gathright if the deal is right and the need is there but three weeks before spring training starts, it's inconceivable that Long, who made almost $5,000,000 last season is going to come here or anywhere else at the major league minimum or anything approaching it (or sign a minor league deal for even less money) when he could go to Japan and make close to what he made last season. That's the fatal flaw in Chum's argument (the $$$) which isn't really an argument but rather an excuse to keep on bashing the organization in virtually every post in every thread. He's a tired broken record repeating his uneducated and deceitful hate daily. He isn't frustrated, he's enjoying himself emmensely spreading his poison every chance he gets. Then of course is the issue of Long being a perrenial malcontent which is why the A's couldn't get rid of him fast enough is an example what Girardi doesn't need. BTW, I'm not suggesting that it doesn't matter if this teams wins alot of games in 2006, rather what's important is that the team start to find itself and prepare for the future. One misplaced rationalization for bringing in Long is the Reese signing but one has nothing to do with the other. Reese's value is his flexibility at either middle infield position or off the bench, Long on the otherhand only retards the growth of young positional players (who most of us have never seen play either enough to make an intelligent comment on, or at all) without being a significant upgrade with a high price tag and lots of baggage. Early on in this process I was in favor of bringing in a core group of veterans like Grudz, Gaffinino and others but I've seen the light. Girardi wants a young group of players he can mold into something that has the possibility of sticking together through the end of the decade. Mid-thirties veterans with a bad attitude just plain don't fit in. As for the clock ticking as you put it, the clock doesn't start for aother 17 days. Dude, I have no idea what's going on. But, when it comes to baseball, I usually agree with you 100%. And this is no exception. Your points are, well, on point. I guess I mainly disagree with you about the business side of the Marlins' operation. Otherwise, :thumbup .
February 11, 200620 yr Lou, this is what's great about hotstove. People have legitimate differing opinions. Good post. :thumbup
February 11, 200620 yr Terrance Long didn't make 5,000,000 bucks last year. He played for the Royals on the cheap just like he would for the Marlins. Long is cheap and proven, bats left-handed, and plays a position of need. I just think that when re-building you could use a few veterans to teach the young guys how to play, and to help them win some games. While it's true that Chris Aguila hasn't really got a chance, to quote AAA numbers in a hitters league is moving his ceiling up. He's regarded as a 4th or 5h OF in every magazine or scouting report I've read on-line about him......not to mention what I've seen with my own two eyes. Of course, this could all be moot if the Marlins trade for Gathright and play Willingham in left. I do have a feeling that Olivo is going to be the catcher, which is fine. The problem with just letting all kids play is if the team has trouble scoring runs......your young pitchers even with talent, wind up like AJ Burnett. Burnett no-doubt has dominant stuff, but he can't make the big pitch when he needed to and that's why he's a .500 pitcher.
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