March 7, 200620 yr It?s a little later than usual, but here is this year?s Top 150 Prospects column. In order to be eligible, players must have fewer than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have spent fewer than 45 non-September days on an active roster. One note: the writeups included for the first 100 players are essentially unchanged from the team top-10 lists. If you want to take a look at the writeups for some of the other players, head to the archives. 2. Jeremy Hermida - OF Marlins - DOB: 01/30/84 - ETA: Now Previous rankings: 2004 #90, mid-2004 #47, 2005 #20, mid-2005 #8 .293/.457/.518, 18 HR, 63 RBI, 89/111 K/BB, 23 SB in 386 AB for Double-A Carolina .293/.383/.634, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 12/6 K/BB, 2 SB in 41 AB for Florida He would have gotten the nod anyway, but with Andy Marte gone, Hermida is the clear choice as the National League?s best prospect. The 2002 first-round pick may never contend for batting crowns or home run titles, but he?ll have Bobby Abreu-type seasons while playing right field for the Marlins. His patience will result in .400+ OBPs to go along with .290 batting averages, and he may peak at somewhere around 30 homers per year in his prime. The plan is for him to open this year as a regular, and he?ll probably end it as the Marlins? No. 3 hitter. 31. Yusmeiro Petit - RHP Marlins - DOB: 11/22/84 - ETA: June 2006 Previous rankings: mid-2004 #142, 2005 #28, mid-2005 #25 9-3, 2.91 ERA, 90 H, 130/18 K/BB in 117 2/3 IP for Double-A Binghamton 0-3, 9.20 ERA, 24 H, 14/6 K/BB in 14 2/3 IP for Triple-A Norfolk That Petit relies more on deception and command than velocity is going to leave many skeptical until he actually gets the job done in the majors. With the trade from the Mets to the Marlins, it?s more likely that he?ll receive his first opportunity this year. Petit spots his 88-91 mph fastball, slider and changeup with precision and does a superb job of hiding the ball, giving hitters less time to react. Maybe quality left-handed hitters will have some luck against him, but he should be effective enough against righties to settle in as a third starter. 52. Anibal Sanchez - RHP Marlins - DOB: 02/27/84 - ETA: July 2007 Previous rankings: mid-2005 #35 6-1, 2.40 ERA, 53 H, 95/24 K/BB in 78 2/3 IP for Single-A Wilmington 3-5, 3.45 ERA, 53 H, 63/16 K/BB in 57 1/3 IP for Double-A Portland Before a rough finish to his season, Sanchez looked liked just as good of a prospect as either of Boston?s other young studs, Jon Lester or Jonathan Papelbon. He came down with a sore elbow at the end, an especially big concern given that he missed 2003 following nerve transposition surgery and had been babied ever since. Sanchez often works in the mid-90s and both his curveball and changeup are potential plus pitches. As a result, he probably has the highest upside of any of the Marlins? young arms. Fortunately, it looks like the team now has the pitching depth to continue to proceed slowly with him. It?d be for the best if he doesn?t see the majors this year. 53. Scott Olsen - LHP Marlins - DOB: 01/12/84 - ETA: June 2006 Previous rankings: mid-2004 #120, 2005 #54, mid-2005 (in majors) 6-4, 3.92 ERA, 75 H, 94/27 K/BB in 80 1/3 IP for Double-A Carolina 1-1, 3.98 ERA, 21 H, 21/10 K/BB in 20 1/3 IP for Florida Olsen, the Marlins? top pitching prospect a year ago, debuted last June and did a nice job in a month in the majors before returning to Double-A on July 22. He was diagnosed with elbow inflammation shortly thereafter and didn?t pitch again. Eventually, it was determined that he had a bone spur that didn?t require surgery. With a 91-94 mph fastball, a quality slider and a serviceable changeup, Olsen resembles a future third starter. He might even be a No. 2 if his command continues to improve. The injury has cut into his ranking a bit, but he?s expected to be fine to contend for a rotation spot this spring. 100. Gaby Hernandez - RHP Marlins - DOB: 05/21/86 - ETA: July 2007 Previous rankings: mid-2005 #69 6-1, 2.43 ERA, 59 H, 99/30 K/BB in 92 2/3 IP for low Single-A Hagerstown 2-5, 5.74 ERA, 48 H, 32/10 K/BB in 42 1/3 IP for Single-A St. Lucie Until hitting a speed bump in the Florida State League, Hernandez had been dominant since the Mets picked him out of a Florida high school in the third round of the 2004 draft. The Marlins acquired him for Paul Lo Duca and figure to put him back in high-A ball this year. Hernandez doesn?t have enormous upside, but he is a better bet to make it than most pitchers his age. He throws in the low-90s with movement, and both his curveball and changeup look like major league pitches. He?ll probably move quickly for a high school product. If he remains healthy, a debut not long after his 21st birthday is a possibility. 113. Josh Willingham - C-OF Marlins - DOB: 02/17/79 - ETA: Now Previous rankings: 2005 #123, mid-2005 (in majors) 119. Josh Johnson - RHP Marlins - DOB: 01/31/84 - ETA: Now Previous rankings: none 126. Ricky Nolasco - RHP Marlins - DOB: 12/13/82 - ETA: Aug. 2006 Previous rankings: none 139. Jason Stokes - 1B Marlins - DOB: 01/23/82 - ETA: April 2007 Previous rankings: mid-2002 #27, 2003 #19, mid-2003 #13, 2004 #24, mid-2004 #27, 2005 #49, mid-2005 #87 150. Mike Jacobs - 1B Marlins - DOB: 10/30/80 - ETA: Now Previous rankings: none Below are approximations of where some of the ineligible players would have ranked: 65. Jason Vargas - LHP Marlins http://www.rotoworld.com/content/story.asp...B&storyid=20102 LT Stokes at 139 ahead of Jacobs is pretty surprising, IMO.
March 7, 200620 yr you skipped someone... 39. Hanley Ramirez - SS Marlins - DOB: 12/23/83 - ETA: Now Previous rankings: 2003 #27, mid-2003 #33, 2004 #48, mid-2004 #88, 2005 #26, mid-2005 #24 .271/.335/.385, 6 HR, 52 RBI, 62/39 K/BB, 26 SB in 465 AB for Double-A Portland .000/.000/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 2 AB for Boston There?s still no questioning Ramirez?s ability, but since the Red Sox figured he was at least a couple of years away from becoming an above average regular, they were willing to part with him in order to land Josh Beckett. Now that he?s a Marlin, he?ll have every opportunity to win a starting job this spring, though that could be about the worst thing for his development. Ramirez has excellent bat speed and a decent approach, but he?s not ready to hit in the majors. All he could manage in Double-A last year was a 720 OPS. He?s also not going to be a plus defender right away, although he should be in time. At minimum, a year in Triple-A would seem to be appropriate.
March 7, 200620 yr Author Dammit, I saw that when I first read it too. Shoulda picked up on Shadez not being on there. :confused
March 7, 200620 yr PECOTA likes Stokes about the same as Jacobs also, so I'm not surprised. Stokes comes with a red flag though because of injury issues. First Basemen Prospects Player WARP Upside Comb 1. Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL (22) 18.5 224.1 409.6 2. Mike Jacobs, 1B, FLO (25) 16.0 129.3 288.9 3. Jason Stokes, 1B, FLO (24) 14.8 123.0 270.6 4. Justin Huber, 1B, KCA (23) 15.2 117.1 269.3 5. Ryan Garko, 1B, CLE (25) 14.9 108.2 257.2 6. Conor Jackson, 1B, ARI (24) 15.2 94.2 246.2 7. Daric Barton, 1B, OAK (20) 13.6 103.4 239.1 8. Kendry Morales, 1B, LAA (23) 12.1 113.0 233.6 9. Ryan Shealy, 1B, COL (26) 12.8 91.5 219.7 10. Wesley Bankston, 1B, TBA (22) 11.4 67.8 181.3 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4765
March 7, 200620 yr Author PECOTA likes Stokes about the same as Jacobs also, so I'm not surprised. Stokes comes with a red flag though because of injury issues. First Basemen Prospects Player WARP Upside Comb 1. Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL (22) 18.5 224.1 409.6 2. Mike Jacobs, 1B, FLO (25) 16.0 129.3 288.9 3. Jason Stokes, 1B, FLO (24) 14.8 123.0 270.6 4. Justin Huber, 1B, KCA (23) 15.2 117.1 269.3 5. Ryan Garko, 1B, CLE (25) 14.9 108.2 257.2 6. Conor Jackson, 1B, ARI (24) 15.2 94.2 246.2 7. Daric Barton, 1B, OAK (20) 13.6 103.4 239.1 8. Kendry Morales, 1B, LAA (23) 12.1 113.0 233.6 9. Ryan Shealy, 1B, COL (26) 12.8 91.5 219.7 10. Wesley Bankston, 1B, TBA (22) 11.4 67.8 181.3 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4765 Yuh, I remember reading that too. The main reason I'm surprised that he's ahead of Jacobs (and even in the top 150) is the aforementioned injury issues. If Stokes' health can be guaranteed I don't see many problems with his rating.
March 7, 200620 yr Where can you find batting splits for minor league numbers? I'm wondering if Stokes could be a nice platoon player. My guess now is that he'll get his homeruns, possibly 25-30 per year. On the flip he'll strike out 130+ times, hit sub .250, and won't walk all that much. All his value will come from LT. Still not a bad piece to have...and we can always hope that he'll hit 270+.
March 7, 200620 yr www.thebaseballcube.com has minor league stats for their careers, though I don't think they have detailed splits ie against lefties etc.
March 7, 200620 yr Where can you find batting splits for minor league numbers? I'm wondering if Stokes could be a nice platoon player. My guess now is that he'll get his homeruns, possibly 25-30 per year. On the flip he'll strike out 130+ times, hit sub .250, and won't walk all that much. All his value will come from LT. Still not a bad piece to have...and we can always hope that he'll hit 270+. Baseball Prospectus in 2-3 years. I think Stokes should start the year in the minors, even if he has a wicked spring, to develop in AA/AAA a little back from his injury. He just needs some guarenteed playing time, which the big league squad can't offer. We have no need to rush him with Jacobs/Helms.
March 7, 200620 yr Where can you find batting splits for minor league numbers? I'm wondering if Stokes could be a nice platoon player. My guess now is that he'll get his homeruns, possibly 25-30 per year. On the flip he'll strike out 130+ times, hit sub .250, and won't walk all that much. All his value will come from LT. Still not a bad piece to have...and we can always hope that he'll hit 270+. Baseball Prospectus in 2-3 years. I think Stokes should start the year in the minors, even if he has a wicked spring, to develop in AA/AAA a little back from his injury. He just needs some guarenteed playing time, which the big league squad can't offer. We have no need to rush him with Jacobs/Helms. I agree. I meant in a farther down the ride type of timeline.
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