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Baseball Prospectus- Marlins 11.2% to win WC


TheDon
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Baseball Prospectus update to win Wild Card

 

Padres 30.3% to win

 

Phillies 19.6%

 

Marlins 11.2%

 

Reds 9%

 

Giants 8.5%

 

 

 

The Marlins are doing an incredible job of winning games (the 5-0 comback was sick) but the reality is that the Padres are going to have to lose some ballgames. This is the time of year when a loss by the Padres for example can be as big as a win by the Marlins (I know.....Captain Obvious to the rescue).

 

 

My point is.........the "Marlins just need to win their games" theory is flawed during September to an extent.

 

 

Win a freakin game Colorado. :thumbup

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How do they figure that? We're playing better than anybody in baseball, we're only a couple games back and they have us at like 1 in 10?

Going by their standards a team not named the Padres, Phillies, Marlins, Reds or Giants has twice as high a chance as the Fish do at winning the Wild Card.

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How do they figure that? We're playing better than anybody in baseball, we're only a couple games back and they have us at like 1 in 10?

Going by their standards a team not named the Padres, Phillies, Marlins, Reds or Giants has twice as high a chance as the Fish do at winning the Wild Card.

 

 

 

 

 

No not really.

 

 

go visit the site @ baseballprospectus.com and you'll see how they have it set up

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Baseball Prospectus update to win Wild Card

 

Padres 30.3% to win

 

Phillies 19.6%

 

Marlins 11.2%

 

Reds 9%

 

Giants 8.5%

 

 

 

The Marlins are doing an incredible job of winning games (the 5-0 comback was sick) but the reality is that the Padres are going to have to lose some ballgames. This is the time of year when a loss by the Padres for example can be as big as a win by the Marlins (I know.....Captain Obvious to the rescue).

 

 

My point is.........the "Marlins just need to win their games" theory is flawed during September to an extent.

Win a freakin game Colorado. :thumbup

 

 

The Padres still have 3 vs SF, 3 vs Cincy, 4 vs LA, 6 vs AZ, and 3 vs StL. They will lose some games. The best thing that can happen in my opinion is if they are still close to LA for the division when they play each other. Giving LA reason to play their regulars. As much as the Dodgers hurt us earlier, they just might be able to help us with the Padres. That is assuming that we can win our games, especially against the Phillies.

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Like the Red Queen in Alice in Wonderland said: ?You have to run faster and faster to stay in the same place.? She could've been talking about The Marlins. They go on crazy win streaks and pull off great comebacks and are still stuck 2 games out.

 

 

Yes, but how far back were we two weeks ago? Patience my friend. There is still plenty of time to make up two games. The good thing is that the leaders (Reds) were in a free fall when we went on our streak. Thus me made up ground quickly. The Padres are now the leaders, and they are playing well so far. I don't expect that to continue however. I think they will lose some games. I'm more concerned with us winning our games. We have won so much lately and over come such a huge defecit, that odds are we can't keep winning at this pace. But, this team has defied the odds so many times already this season that I am very optimistic. Keep in mind we are not going to win out all our games. The key is not to go on any prolonged losing streak. Just keep winning and everything else will take care of itself.

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Of all the remaining teams The Marlins have the hardest schedule remaining. Also, The Marlins and Phillies both have their chances lessened because they are playing each other so many times.

 

But what if The Marlins were playing San Diego 10 more times? They could burn each other out (go 5-5) and The Phils could scoot ahead. The schedule is the schedule and we have to live with it.

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Like the Red Queen in Alice in Wonderland said: ?You have to run faster and faster to stay in the same place.? She could've been talking about The Marlins. They go on crazy win streaks and pull off great comebacks and are still stuck 2 games out.

 

 

Yes, but how far back were we two weeks ago? Patience my friend. There is still plenty of time to make up two games. The good thing is that the leaders (Reds) were in a free fall when we went on our streak. Thus me made up ground quickly. The Padres are now the leaders, and they are playing well so far. I don't expect that to continue however. I think they will lose some games. I'm more concerned with us winning our games. We have won so much lately and over come such a huge defecit, that odds are we can't keep winning at this pace. But, this team has defied the odds so many times already this season that I am very optimistic. Keep in mind we are not going to win out all our games. The key is not to go on any prolonged losing streak. Just keep winning and everything else will take care of itself.

Patience? Of course. My own prediction (when we were 5.5 games out) was that we wouldn't catch San Diego (2nd at the time) until after September 10 and Cincy until the end of September when we played them. So we're actually ahead of schedule.

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The Padres will lose some games. The Marlins, however, I hope will not.

 

At the end of the games last night:

Padres 29.6, Phillies 18.2, Dodgers 12.6, Marlins 12.2, Reds 9.9, Giants 8.7, Astros 3.7, Braves 1.7, Diamondbacks 0.4, Rockies 0.3, Mets & Nationals & Brewers

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we're gonna have to play well against the padres. we got to catch up with them, and hopefully start a nice losing streak for them.

 

We don't have any more games against them.

oops. I was thinking of the phillies. hopefully someone can sink the pads.

LA or St.luis probably

hopefully albert "winnie the" pujols can work his magic against them :thumbup

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