Is he definitely going to be a reliever and not a starter going forward?

Same story as Pappelbon. Too valuable in the pen. But - we'll see.

 

It's not the same story as Papelbon at all.

 

Papelbon was a B+ prospect. Joba Chamberlain is the second best pitching prospect in baseball at this moment, and probably has the highest upside of anyone outside Homer Bailey (ugh).

 

Is Joba is #2 ahead of Hughes, Gallardo, Lincecum, Garza, Miller, Kershaw, Morales, Adenhart, etc?

 

I don't believe that for a second... and I like Joba alot

Buchholz...

Is he definitely going to be a reliever and not a starter going forward?

Same story as Pappelbon. Too valuable in the pen. But - we'll see.

 

It's not the same story as Papelbon at all.

 

Papelbon was a B+ prospect. Joba Chamberlain is the second best pitching prospect in baseball at this moment, and probably has the highest upside of anyone outside Homer Bailey (ugh).

 

Is Joba is #2 ahead of Hughes, Gallardo, Lincecum, Garza, Miller, Kershaw, Morales, Adenhart, etc?

 

I don't believe that for a second... and I like Joba alot

Buchholz...

he was part of etc :mis2

Wait, so who is number one? I thought Hughes is/was considered no. 1, has he lost his prospect status already?

 

FWIW, and I'm only 'eh' on Project Prospect, they go:

 

1. Hughes

2. Buchholz

3. Joba

4. Kershaw

5. Bailey

Wait, so who is number one? I thought Hughes is/was considered no. 1, has he lost his prospect status already?

 

FWIW, and I'm only 'eh' on Project Prospect they go:

 

1. Hughes

2. Buchholz

3. Joba

4. Kershaw

5. Bailey

I don't think he's lost his status yet.... if he has, I guess for sure Gallardo has as well

Prospect status is 50+ ML innings and/or has been on a ML roster 45+ days.

 

Gallardo: 55 IP

A bad stint in the majors gives Bailey a boot from even consideration?

Bailey has been mentioned in almost every post in here.

Bailey has been mentioned in almost every post in here.

that's what I was thinking

Is he definitely going to be a reliever and not a starter going forward?

Same story as Pappelbon. Too valuable in the pen. But - we'll see.

 

It's not the same story as Papelbon at all.

 

Papelbon was a B+ prospect. Joba Chamberlain is the second best pitching prospect in baseball at this moment, and probably has the highest upside of anyone outside Homer Bailey (ugh).

 

Is Joba is #2 ahead of Hughes, Gallardo, Lincecum, Garza, Miller, Kershaw, Morales, Adenhart, etc?

 

I don't believe that for a second... and I like Joba alot

 

 

A bad stint in the majors gives Bailey a boot from even consideration?

 

Ramp: Why would I include those guys? They've already logged considerable MLB innings and are going to stay there. Though I would rank him above everyone that you just said not including Hughes, Gallardo and Lincecum. Kershaw is very, very close.

 

I put Buchholz as #1. He's a surefire #2 starter. Joba is right behind, but both he and Bailey have considerably higher upsides than Buchholz.

 

Junior: Bailey has had a bad year, not just a stint in the majors. I haven't checked recently, but last I had he had given up .5 BB/IP. I've also heard rumors that he has lost quite a bit of velocity as well. Checking his numbers now it appears he has LESS THAN A K per IP. That's not good. Something's not right with him. Don't let the 3.07 ERA fool you.

 

He's still an elite prospect, but he's not quite on those other guys level right now. If he fixes himself he has as high an upside as anyone.

Papelbon could not sustain his command and stuff over 7 innings,

Not true.

 

Papelbon's turn to the bullpen was not made because of an inability to start, it started because he was nearing in on his combined max IP in 2005 while in the bigs so he was sent to the pen (I expect this same type of plan to be used for Clay as they are in very similar circumstances) and then once in the bullpen, he was simply too dominant and effective to be taken out.

 

Nothing to do with this supposed inability to sustain his 'command and stuff over 7 innings'.

Papelbon could not sustain his command and stuff over 7 innings,

Not true.

 

Papelbon's turn to the bullpen was not made because of an inability to start, it started because he was nearing in on his combined max IP in 2005 while in the bigs so he was sent to the pen (I expect this same type of plan to be used for Clay as they are in very similar circumstances) and then once in the bullpen, he was simply too dominant and effective to be taken out.

 

Nothing to do with this supposed inability to sustain his 'command and stuff over 7 innings'.

 

Not what I'm saying.

 

I know that's why he was moved to the bullpen. The reason he was not considered an elite starting pitcher prospect was because he couldn't sustain it for 7 IP. Papelbon wasn't heralded like Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey or even Francisco Liriano, and that was the reason.

 

Papelbon is hitting 97 on the gun with ease as the closer, I believe there was some doubt he could replicate that as a starter. And, hell, if he could, then the Red Sox are asshats. He needs to be pitching 200 innings a year.

 

My point is that where as Papelbon uses the bullpen to his advantage by really dialing up his stuff for that one inning, Chamberlain appears to have no noticeable difference. He still sits exactly the same as he did velocity-wise.

 

Trust, I'm taking nothing away from Papelbon. He is fantastic. But, he would not be the same as a starter. There's a reason he wasn't a top 10 prospect. He is absolutely perfect in his role and has been flat-out incredible.

Bailey has been mentioned in almost every post in here.

that's what I was thinking

Wow. I'm an idiot.

 

Move along, nothing to see here.

Is he definitely going to be a reliever and not a starter going forward?

Same story as Pappelbon. Too valuable in the pen. But - we'll see.

 

It's not the same story as Papelbon at all.

 

Papelbon was a B+ prospect. Joba Chamberlain is the second best pitching prospect in baseball at this moment, and probably has the highest upside of anyone outside Homer Bailey (ugh).

 

Is Joba is #2 ahead of Hughes, Gallardo, Lincecum, Garza, Miller, Kershaw, Morales, Adenhart, etc?

 

I don't believe that for a second... and I like Joba alot

 

 

A bad stint in the majors gives Bailey a boot from even consideration?

 

Ramp: Why would I include those guys? They've already logged considerable MLB innings and are going to stay there. Though I would rank him above everyone that you just said not including Hughes, Gallardo and Lincecum. Kershaw is very, very close.

 

I put Buchholz as #1. He's a surefire #2 starter. Joba is right behind, but both he and Bailey have considerably higher upsides than Buchholz.

 

Junior: Bailey has had a bad year, not just a stint in the majors. I haven't checked recently, but last I had he had given up .5 BB/IP. I've also heard rumors that he has lost quite a bit of velocity as well. Checking his numbers now it appears he has LESS THAN A K per IP. That's not good. Something's not right with him. Don't let the 3.07 ERA fool you.

 

He's still an elite prospect, but he's not quite on those other guys level right now. If he fixes himself he has as high an upside as anyone.

When looking at prospects, atleast for me, whoever appeared in BA at the beginning of the year is a prospect for the entire season even if they make 30 starts.

Is he definitely going to be a reliever and not a starter going forward?

Same story as Pappelbon. Too valuable in the pen. But - we'll see.

 

It's not the same story as Papelbon at all.

 

Papelbon was a B+ prospect. Joba Chamberlain is the second best pitching prospect in baseball at this moment, and probably has the highest upside of anyone outside Homer Bailey (ugh).

 

Is Joba is #2 ahead of Hughes, Gallardo, Lincecum, Garza, Miller, Kershaw, Morales, Adenhart, etc?

 

I don't believe that for a second... and I like Joba alot

 

 

A bad stint in the majors gives Bailey a boot from even consideration?

 

Ramp: Why would I include those guys? They've already logged considerable MLB innings and are going to stay there. Though I would rank him above everyone that you just said not including Hughes, Gallardo and Lincecum. Kershaw is very, very close.

 

I put Buchholz as #1. He's a surefire #2 starter. Joba is right behind, but both he and Bailey have considerably higher upsides than Buchholz.

 

Junior: Bailey has had a bad year, not just a stint in the majors. I haven't checked recently, but last I had he had given up .5 BB/IP. I've also heard rumors that he has lost quite a bit of velocity as well. Checking his numbers now it appears he has LESS THAN A K per IP. That's not good. Something's not right with him. Don't let the 3.07 ERA fool you.

 

He's still an elite prospect, but he's not quite on those other guys level right now. If he fixes himself he has as high an upside as anyone.

When looking at prospects, atleast for me, whoever appeared in BA at the beginning of the year is a prospect for the entire season even if they make 30 starts.

 

I gotcha. In that case, Chamberlain would not be my #2 prospect.

Papelbon could not sustain his command and stuff over 7 innings,

Not true.

 

Papelbon's turn to the bullpen was not made because of an inability to start, it started because he was nearing in on his combined max IP in 2005 while in the bigs so he was sent to the pen (I expect this same type of plan to be used for Clay as they are in very similar circumstances) and then once in the bullpen, he was simply too dominant and effective to be taken out.

 

Nothing to do with this supposed inability to sustain his 'command and stuff over 7 innings'.

 

Not what I'm saying.

 

I know that's why he was moved to the bullpen. The reason he was not considered an elite starting pitcher prospect was because he couldn't sustain it for 7 IP. Papelbon wasn't heralded like Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey or even Francisco Liriano, and that was the reason.

 

Papelbon is hitting 97 on the gun with ease as the closer, I believe there was some doubt he could replicate that as a starter. And, hell, if he could, then the Red Sox are asshats. He needs to be pitching 200 innings a year.

 

My point is that where as Papelbon uses the bullpen to his advantage by really dialing up his stuff for that one inning, Chamberlain appears to have no noticeable difference. He still sits exactly the same as he did velocity-wise.

 

Trust, I'm taking nothing away from Papelbon. He is fantastic. But, he would not be the same as a starter. There's a reason he wasn't a top 10 prospect. He is absolutely perfect in his role and has been flat-out incredible.

Point taken, I get what you mean.

 

That said, with that logic applied; wouldn't Joba only averaging ~ >6 IP per start in his first year of pro ball something of a concern (not insinuating anything either way) when it comes to him being a definite starter?

Papelbon could not sustain his command and stuff over 7 innings,

Not true.

 

Papelbon's turn to the bullpen was not made because of an inability to start, it started because he was nearing in on his combined max IP in 2005 while in the bigs so he was sent to the pen (I expect this same type of plan to be used for Clay as they are in very similar circumstances) and then once in the bullpen, he was simply too dominant and effective to be taken out.

 

Nothing to do with this supposed inability to sustain his 'command and stuff over 7 innings'.

 

Not what I'm saying.

 

I know that's why he was moved to the bullpen. The reason he was not considered an elite starting pitcher prospect was because he couldn't sustain it for 7 IP. Papelbon wasn't heralded like Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey or even Francisco Liriano, and that was the reason.

 

Papelbon is hitting 97 on the gun with ease as the closer, I believe there was some doubt he could replicate that as a starter. And, hell, if he could, then the Red Sox are asshats. He needs to be pitching 200 innings a year.

 

My point is that where as Papelbon uses the bullpen to his advantage by really dialing up his stuff for that one inning, Chamberlain appears to have no noticeable difference. He still sits exactly the same as he did velocity-wise.

 

Trust, I'm taking nothing away from Papelbon. He is fantastic. But, he would not be the same as a starter. There's a reason he wasn't a top 10 prospect. He is absolutely perfect in his role and has been flat-out incredible.

Point taken, I get what you mean.

 

That said, with that logic applied; wouldn't Joba only averaging ~ >6 IP per start in his first year of pro ball something of a concern (not insinuating anything either way) when it comes to him being a definite starter?

 

Chamberlain, as with most prospects, is on a strict pitch count. If he gets anywhere near 100 pitches he gets yanked. He only averages 6 IP start because he uses a lot of pitches per batter. If you look at his K/9 rates, they're absolutely ridiculous. I think he's at something like 15 K/9 for the year. While that's all fine and dandy because it looks nice, that means he's throwing an awful lot of pitches. It really doesn't have anything to do with his stuff deteriorating. In fact, in his last AAA start (I believe it was his last) he was hitting 97 on the gun in the 7th inning.

 

The concern is that he throws a lot of pitches, almost missing too many bats, instead of letting them put the ball in play. You'll also see later in the year the top-tier prospects start getting shut down early. The organizations will only let them throw 5 IP per start so that they don't reach their inning cap.

 

I'm not 100% certain I'm reading you post correctly though.

His progression/style/minor league development reminds me a lot of Joel Zumaya.

The difference between the two is that Zumaya has an "awfully exertive" delivery according to various scouting reports and has a trouble repeating it as he gets tired (deep into games). Chamberlain is the opposite of this. His delivery is very smooth and he nearly hits triple digits late into his starts. Zumaya has slightly worse control, but a slightly better fastball (about 2-3 MPH when both are relievers). Chamberlain also has a better third pitch, which is usually the key when it comes to the 2nd-4th turns through a lineup.

 

Zumaya is a more effective reliever, whereas Chamberlain is a more effective starter.

 

They do have similarities though.

Interesting. That type of thing is where I'd defer to the actual Yankee fan since you follow him.

 

Thanks for the info.

The difference between the two is that Zumaya has an "awfully exertive" delivery according to various scouting reports and has a trouble repeating it as he gets tired (deep into games). Chamberlain is the opposite of this. His delivery is very smooth and he nearly hits triple digits late into his starts. Zumaya has slightly worse control, but a slightly better fastball (about 2-3 MPH when both are relievers). Chamberlain also has a better third pitch, which is usually the key when it comes to the 2nd-4th turns through a lineup.

 

Zumaya is a more effective reliever, whereas Chamberlain is a more effective starter.

Rivera [a former SS, btw] was also brought up as a starter throwing 96-97 MPH. He had his cutter, two seamer, four seamer, and a slider. He had a couple of decent starts and a couple of mediocre starts [5-3 5+ ERA]. The Yankees put him in the pen to set up Wetteland and found lightening in a bottle. When Wetteland left in '97, the obvious decision was to move Mo into the closer role and the rest of his fabled success is history.

 

I understand what the Yankee plans were for him HOWEVER - what does Chamberlain throw? 96-97 MPH? His pitches are what? Fastball and slider? What's he doing now? Setting up a Mariano Rivera that could very well retire? It doesn't really matter that Torre thinks he'll only bring Chamberlain in to start an inning or Cashman thinks Chamberlain will be a #3 or #4 starter - if his value remains in the setup role or develops into the closer role, that's where he is going to be.

 

The Yankees have a lot of young talent [Hughes, Clippard, et all] being developed and always have the pocketbook to bring in another starter if needed. You can't teach a guy how to close a game, though.

 

Also, for the record, the Yankees officially say he is going to be a starter, right? Yet, in late July they moved him to the pen down in Scranton. What does that tell you?

How long will they keep him in the pen though? I see Rivera signing a 3-year contract in the off-season and more than likely being his usual effectiveness through the duration of that deal.

 

Would they really leave Joba as his set-up man for that long? Mo only set-up for Wetteland in '96 and then took over the reigns.

 

If you retain Rivera (I'd be stunned if this doesn't happen) then it becomes a question of 'where is Joba more valuable, as a high leverage reliever in non-save situations or as a 3/4/5 starter'?. The latter which he hasn't shown he'd be able to do well at the ML level.

 

It's definitely a Papelbon-esque situation in my book.

Joba's effectiveness isn't as good if the team isn't winning. Would you rather him getting his own lead or preserving others? I don't know but i think he'd be better off as a starter.

Lets go to next year right now...

 

If the yankees do decide to keep Joba In the Bullpen, what is that going to do with their Starting rotation?

 

1. Wang

2. Phillips

3. Moose (injury concern)

4. Pettite (usually a valuable innings eater)

5. ?????

 

possibilities for the fifth starting spot include, All the yankees rookies who have been rocked this year (Igawa, Karstens, ect. or FA pitcher. Something tells me that george will not let this happen. Either Joba is going to be the fifth starter, Zambrano is going to sign with them (has he signed his extension with cubs yet?) or there will be a big deal including one of the big prospects. I just dont see the yankees letting them selves go through the same type of Rotation problems they had last year.

The difference between the two is that Zumaya has an "awfully exertive" delivery according to various scouting reports and has a trouble repeating it as he gets tired (deep into games). Chamberlain is the opposite of this. His delivery is very smooth and he nearly hits triple digits late into his starts. Zumaya has slightly worse control, but a slightly better fastball (about 2-3 MPH when both are relievers). Chamberlain also has a better third pitch, which is usually the key when it comes to the 2nd-4th turns through a lineup.

 

Zumaya is a more effective reliever, whereas Chamberlain is a more effective starter.

Rivera [a former SS, btw] was also brought up as a starter throwing 96-97 MPH. He had his cutter, two seamer, four seamer, and a slider. He had a couple of decent starts and a couple of mediocre starts [5-3 5+ ERA]. The Yankees put him in the pen to set up Wetteland and found lightening in a bottle. When Wetteland left in '97, the obvious decision was to move Mo into the closer role and the rest of his fabled success is history.

Rivera was not nearly as heralded a prospect as Joba Chamberlain. Chamberlain is at another level. What happens to failed starting pitchers? They go to the bullpen. See: Eric Gagne and Mariano Rivera. Look, it's not like there's no precedent here. Johan Santana turned out fine last I checked.

 

I understand what the Yankee plans were for him HOWEVER - what does Chamberlain throw? 96-97 MPH? His pitches are what? Fastball and slider? What's he doing now? Setting up a Mariano Rivera that could very well retire? It doesn't really matter that Torre thinks he'll only bring Chamberlain in to start an inning or Cashman thinks Chamberlain will be a #3 or #4 starter - if his value remains in the setup role or develops into the closer role, that's where he is going to be.

 

What has more value: someone pitching to a 3 ERA as a starter or someone who pitches to a 2 ERA as a closer? It's a simple answer.

 

Chamberlain IS NOT a 3 or 4 starter. He is an ACE. Period.

 

I will offer one caveat, the ONLY WAY Chamberlain remains in the bullpen is if Mariano Rivera is not a Yankee next year.

 

The Yankees have a lot of young talent [Hughes, Clippard, et all] being developed and always have the pocketbook to bring in another starter if needed. You can't teach a guy how to close a game, though.

 

Also, for the record, the Yankees officially say he is going to be a starter, right? Yet, in late July they moved him to the pen down in Scranton. What does that tell you?

 

They moved him to the bullpen to get SOME use out of him before he reached his innings cap.

 

And let's nip the Papelbon comparison right now. Papelbon never got close to Joba Chamberlains prospect ranking.

I don't know how you can say with any certainty after one season of pro ball in multiple levels that Chamberlain is an ace without even pitching a single major league game. I know that's the nature of projections, but that seems silly to use as definitive point.

 

I don't know why you are so adverse to the Papelbon comparison:

 

 

 

You make it sound like Pap was some fringe prospect. He was a stud when his call-up came and he was always highly regarded. He dominated at every level in the minors for a longer time then Joba and they both have similar stats at the levels, high K totals, low BB totals, consistently low ERAs that improved, consistent WHIP numbers.

 

Now Joba might project better because of age, arsenal, etc. but their on the field numbers are more than just comparable and they both were groomed a bit in AAA to come out of the pen for the big club. I'm not saying Joba is definitely going to stay in the pen but both situations seem very similar in my mind.