August 13, 200719 yr ok. Over the course of this season, he's been 15% better than the average player. His OBP is 95 points higher than his average. He has 10 home runs in 256 at bats. Oh and he's 23. There you go again comparing Hermida with a grouping that includes pitchers and catchers. You do him a disservice when you pull that stunt because you don't need to do it to show his bat in a good light.
August 13, 200719 yr Oh and he's 23. Yes, because age means everything in todays game. Yes, it does. A 23 year old who can post above average OPS is only going to continue to improve. If he was 27 and doing the same thing, people wouldn't be nearly as optimistic. He's 40th in OPS among ML OFers and his defense is horrendous. He still has yet to justify all the hype he came into 06 with. Ok, he's young and still has plenty of time, whatever. The point is that it takes more than a month to be able to say that "he has arrived" So he'd be a starting outfielder on every single team, and he's in the top 3rd of outfielders (and probably closer to top 25% of all outfielders with as much playing time) despite basically doing an extended Spring Training throughout May and much of June. Hermida is much closer to the player he's been in July and August than the player he was in May or June. ok. Over the course of this season, he's been 15% better than the average player. His OBP is 95 points higher than his average. He has 10 home runs in 256 at bats. Oh and he's 23. There you go again comparing Hermida with a grouping that includes pitchers and catchers. You do him a disservice when you pull that stunt because you don't need to do it to show his bat in a good light. Then is it not also unfair for judge him against first basemen and DH's, who are historically more offensively inclined than RFers? (For the record, pitchers are removed from OPS+) Why do you pick on catchers when SS and 2B are just as unproductive. It is absolutely fair to compare a player to all of the regular hitters in baseball, as they all have the same job when up to the plate: create runs. Hermida does this at a rate that is 15% better than the average hitter in major league baseball, pitcher's excluded. I understand the offensive expectations are lessened for C, SS, and 2B, but they are still everyday hitters. If it is unfair to compare a RFer to a C then it is just as unfair to compare him to a 1B or DH. In fact, the average RF is about as close to the average 1B as he is to the average C. And even say, Hermida is about average for RF, which means that he is incredible valuable, as baseball production does not follow a bell curve, where average is in the middle. Average is much closer to the top of the spectrum, because of how few players are capable of posting average numbers. There are far more who are below average than above average, which makes average productions incredibly valuable. And Hermida's only going to get better.
August 13, 200719 yr He's 40th in OPS among ML OFers and his defense is horrendous. He still has yet to justify all the hype he came into 06 with. Ok, he's young and still has plenty of time, whatever. The point is that it takes more than a month to be able to say that "he has arrived" Yet one typically has to look to first ballot hall of fame players with better age 23 performance. There is nothing wrong with Jeremy Hermida that playing time will not fix. As long as nobody tried to make him more aggressive (like last season) we are going to have a reliable .850+ OPS left-handed hitter playing in a park that is death on lefties. Tony Gwynn wasn't a reliable .800 OPS player until his 30s, by that time he wasn't a reliable everyday player, he routinely missed 20-40 games every year. I think you're way off on that. Just guessing but I think there must be somewhere around 20 position players in MLB right now who were better at 23 than Hermida is right now adn I doubt all these guys will be first ballot hall of famers. Maybe not first ballot guys (though there is a lot of candidates here), but these are elite players and Hermida may surpass some of these guys' age 23 OPS performance. Miguel Cabrera Hanley Ramirez Albert Pujols Jose Reyes Grady Sizemore Ken Griffey, Jr. Alex Rodriguez Jim Thome Barry Bonds Scott Rolen David Wright Manny Ramirez He's 23. Most players, even future hall-of-fame guys, are not major league starting position players (much less good hitting ones) at age 23, and Hermida is a good hitting starting position player. The Marlins have several very special young hitters, and Hermida is one of them. This team will have an outstanding offense for as long as this core is maintained.
August 13, 200719 yr So since Hermida sucks after to sucky months (May and June), why isn't he good after too good months (July and August)? And before you bring up that August isn't over yet and things can change...he only played 7 more games in May then has has so far in August (17 and 10). He has sucked since last season, just since you asked, not just because of the first 2 months of this season. His career OPS is still below 800, and his defense is still bad. Him hitting good is a good thing, and maybe it will work out and he will be this really good player. But as of right now, calling him comparable to first ballot HoFers is crazy. I'd like to see him actually play a whole season and keep up an OPS around or over 850 before I think any of that hype back when was justified
August 13, 200719 yr So since Hermida sucks after to sucky months (May and June), why isn't he good after too good months (July and August)? And before you bring up that August isn't over yet and things can change...he only played 7 more games in May then has has so far in August (17 and 10). He has sucked since last season, just since you asked, not just because of the first 2 months of this season. His career OPS is still below 800, and his defense is still bad. Him hitting good is a good thing, and maybe it will work out and he will be this really good player. But as of right now, calling him comparable to first ballot HoFers is crazy. I'd like to see him actually play a whole season and keep up an OPS around or over 850 before I think any of that hype back when was justified Very few players post OPS of .850 at the age of 23. Like, it's super rare.
August 13, 200719 yr bobbob, I didn't know pitchers were removed from OPS+. I think it's more relevant to compare RFs to a pool that includes only his peers than to a pool that includes the lighter hitting positions. If Jeremy was stinking it up I could see the need to blurry things up by comparing him to catchers, SS and 2B to make him look good but you don't need to do that to make him look good. Out of the 32 RFs with the most PAs Jeremy ranks 17th in OPS. That's good enough for a 23 year old. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/battin...nd=a&pos=rf
August 13, 200719 yr So since Hermida sucks after to sucky months (May and June), why isn't he good after too good months (July and August)? And before you bring up that August isn't over yet and things can change...he only played 7 more games in May then has has so far in August (17 and 10). He has sucked since last season, just since you asked, not just because of the first 2 months of this season. His career OPS is still below 800, and his defense is still bad. Him hitting good is a good thing, and maybe it will work out and he will be this really good player. But as of right now, calling him comparable to first ballot HoFers is crazy. I'd like to see him actually play a whole season and keep up an OPS around or over 850 before I think any of that hype back when was justified Very few players post OPS of .850 at the age of 23. Like, it's super rare. Shutup idiot. To quote myself from a while back: Tony Gwynn at the age of 23: .727 Craig Biggio, 23: .737 Paul O'Neill, 23: 2 major league at bats Ryan Howard, 23: No major league at bats David Ortiz, 23: no hits in 20 ML at bats Travis Hafner, 23: No ML At bats Michael Young, 23: 2 ML At bats Johnny Damon, 23: .723 in 472 At Bats Carlos Delgado, 23: .609 in 91 At bats Matt Holliday, 23: No ML At bats Ryne Sandberg, 23: .667 Moises Alou, 23: 4 hits in 20 ML At bats Jason Bay, 23: No ML At Bats Because of their struggles at the age of 23, none of these players were capable of being productive in the majors. And Polo, that was my point with the whole bell curve thing. He's worse than 16 other RFers, but if you include all right fielders (including guys who have only had a couple of at bats and then sent back down) he's been better than probably 50 or 60 of them, even though his statistics have only been "average" for the position.
August 13, 200719 yr So since Hermida sucks after to sucky months (May and June), why isn't he good after too good months (July and August)? And before you bring up that August isn't over yet and things can change...he only played 7 more games in May then has has so far in August (17 and 10). He has sucked since last season, just since you asked, not just because of the first 2 months of this season. His career OPS is still below 800, and his defense is still bad. Him hitting good is a good thing, and maybe it will work out and he will be this really good player. But as of right now, calling him comparable to first ballot HoFers is crazy. I'd like to see him actually play a whole season and keep up an OPS around or over 850 before I think any of that hype back when was justified Very few players post OPS of .850 at the age of 23. Like, it's super rare. Exactly, kinda. Hermida isn't there yet, and it is annoying when people act like he is. And ignore his defense. I know RF is not a big defense position, but it isn't ok to have someone out there who dives on a ball he can't reach and turns a single into triple which becomes the go ahead run in a game we lose. Look at the difference when Cody is out there, actually making catches on the run and making good throws that actually result in outs. Cody BTW, at the ripe old age of 25, has a 954 OPS this season.
August 13, 200719 yr So since Hermida sucks after to sucky months (May and June), why isn't he good after too good months (July and August)? And before you bring up that August isn't over yet and things can change...he only played 7 more games in May then has has so far in August (17 and 10). He has sucked since last season, just since you asked, not just because of the first 2 months of this season. His career OPS is still below 800, and his defense is still bad. Him hitting good is a good thing, and maybe it will work out and he will be this really good player. But as of right now, calling him comparable to first ballot HoFers is crazy. I'd like to see him actually play a whole season and keep up an OPS around or over 850 before I think any of that hype back when was justified Very few players post OPS of .850 at the age of 23. Like, it's super rare. Exactly, kinda. Hermida isn't there yet, and it is annoying when people act like he is. And ignore his defense. I know RF is not a big defense position, but it isn't ok to have someone out there who dives on a ball he can't reach and turns a single into triple which becomes the go ahead run in a game we lose. Look at the difference when Cody is out there, actually making catches on the run and making good throws that actually result in outs. Cody BTW, at the ripe old age of 25, has a 954 OPS this season. Cody also faces 80% lefties, who he mashes. Unfortunately he can't hit righties for sh*t, so thats a pretty crappy comparison. Also, Hermida's OPS has been trending upwards for the past 50 games or so. If it continues, he very well may be one of the few 23 year olds who post an .850 OPS. You cannot discount his first 2 months or his last 2 months, you have to take them as a whole, and as a whole, he's most certainly 9/10 of the way there, if he isn't "there" yet.
August 13, 200719 yr Cody also faces 80% lefties, who he mashes. Unfortunately he can't hit righties for sh*t, so thats a pretty crappy comparison. Also, Hermida's OPS has been trending upwards for the past 50 games or so. If it continues, he very well may be one of the few 23 year olds who post an .850 OPS. You cannot discount his first 2 months or his last 2 months, you have to take them as a whole, and as a whole, he's most certainly 9/10 of the way there, if he isn't "there" yet. Actually Cody has more than 50% of his ABs this season against RHP (I'm not arguing that Cody's numbers aren't way better vs LHP, just stating a fact). Not that it matters much either, but Hermida has about 73% of his ABs vs RHP. And again, there's also that pesky defense issue, which does matter to some of us, because while a good defender may not save too many runs, a really bad one sure can allow a bunch on line drives.
August 13, 200719 yr Author Guess who hit 190 with a 250 OBP and a 260 SLG% over 100 ABs in June of 2006? Our SS (The best in the league) - Hanley Ramirez. Because clearly you can pick out one month selectively to prove the quality of a player. That's only fair, right? Seriously, Hermida needs to put together more than a month of quality hitting before you can tell "us haters" that you told us so. One month isn't even 20% of a season. GJ missing the point :thumbup Same to you One month doesn't prove anything on it's own. Players get hot and players get into slumps. ok. Over the course of this season, he's been 15% better than the average player. His OBP is 95 points higher than his average. He has 10 home runs in 256 at bats. Oh and he's 23. He's 40th in OPS among ML OFers and his defense is horrendous. He still has yet to justify all the hype he came into 06 with. Ok, he's young and still has plenty of time, whatever. The point is that it takes more than a month to be able to say that "he has arrived" He is getting there, he is playing much better and is becoming a solid contributor to the ballclub. We hope this is growth and not just a good month
August 13, 200719 yr Cody also faces 80% lefties, who he mashes. Unfortunately he can't hit righties for sh*t, so thats a pretty crappy comparison. Also, Hermida's OPS has been trending upwards for the past 50 games or so. If it continues, he very well may be one of the few 23 year olds who post an .850 OPS. You cannot discount his first 2 months or his last 2 months, you have to take them as a whole, and as a whole, he's most certainly 9/10 of the way there, if he isn't "there" yet. Actually Cody has more than 50% of his ABs this season against RHP (I'm not arguing that Cody's numbers aren't way better vs LHP, just stating a fact). Not that it matters much either, but Hermida has about 73% of his ABs vs RHP. And again, there's also that pesky defense issue, which does matter to some of us, because while a good defender may not save too many runs, a really bad one sure can allow a bunch on line drives. Outfield defense isn't really all that important. The difference between Cody and Jeremy over the course of a full season (assuming they both played every inning of a 162 game season) is probably no more than 10-15 runs.
August 13, 200719 yr So since Hermida sucks after to sucky months (May and June), why isn't he good after too good months (July and August)? And before you bring up that August isn't over yet and things can change...he only played 7 more games in May then has has so far in August (17 and 10). He has sucked since last season, just since you asked, not just because of the first 2 months of this season. His career OPS is still below 800, and his defense is still bad. Him hitting good is a good thing, and maybe it will work out and he will be this really good player. But as of right now, calling him comparable to first ballot HoFers is crazy. I'd like to see him actually play a whole season and keep up an OPS around or over 850 before I think any of that hype back when was justified Very few players post OPS of .850 at the age of 23. Like, it's super rare. Shutup idiot. To quote myself from a while back: Tony Gwynn at the age of 23: .727 Craig Biggio, 23: .737 Paul O'Neill, 23: 2 major league at bats Ryan Howard, 23: No major league at bats David Ortiz, 23: no hits in 20 ML at bats Travis Hafner, 23: No ML At bats Michael Young, 23: 2 ML At bats Johnny Damon, 23: .723 in 472 At Bats Carlos Delgado, 23: .609 in 91 At bats Matt Holliday, 23: No ML At bats Ryne Sandberg, 23: .667 Moises Alou, 23: 4 hits in 20 ML At bats Jason Bay, 23: No ML At Bats Wow, how scary-good is Cabs, then? OPS: 2004 (age 20-21) .878 2005 (age 21-22) .946 2006 (age 22-23) .998 2007 (age 23-24) 1.024!!!
August 13, 200719 yr He's 40th in OPS among ML OFers and his defense is horrendous. He still has yet to justify all the hype he came into 06 with. Ok, he's young and still has plenty of time, whatever. The point is that it takes more than a month to be able to say that "he has arrived" Yet one typically has to look to first ballot hall of fame players with better age 23 performance. There is nothing wrong with Jeremy Hermida that playing time will not fix. As long as nobody tried to make him more aggressive (like last season) we are going to have a reliable .850+ OPS left-handed hitter playing in a park that is death on lefties. Tony Gwynn wasn't a reliable .800 OPS player until his 30s, by that time he wasn't a reliable everyday player, he routinely missed 20-40 games every year. I think you're way off on that. Just guessing but I think there must be somewhere around 20 position players in MLB right now who were better at 23 than Hermida is right now adn I doubt all these guys will be first ballot hall of famers. Maybe not first ballot guys (though there is a lot of candidates here), but these are elite players and Hermida may surpass some of these guys' age 23 OPS performance. Miguel Cabrera Hanley Ramirez Albert Pujols Jose Reyes Grady Sizemore Ken Griffey, Jr. Alex Rodriguez Jim Thome Barry Bonds Scott Rolen David Wright Manny Ramirez He's 23. Most players, even future hall-of-fame guys, are not major league starting position players (much less good hitting ones) at age 23, and Hermida is a good hitting starting position player. The Marlins have several very special young hitters, and Hermida is one of them. This team will have an outstanding offense for as long as this core is maintained. Here are a few more.. with 4 or 5 of them it may be debatable as to whether they are / were better than Hermida at age 23 but with most of them it's not debatable. The point is that some of you make it seem as if only hall of famers are good at age 23 and taht's nonsense, in my opinion. Dustin Pedroia Robinson Cano Melky Cabrera Troy Glaus Frank Thomas B.J. Upton Gary Sheffield Jhonny Peralta Joe Mauer Justin Morneau Paul Konerko Vladimir Guerrero Garret Anderson Brian McCann Andruw Jones Jeff Francoeur Ryan Zimmerman Prince Fielder Ryan Braun Aramis Ramirez Scott Rolen Adam Dunn Luis Gonzalez James Loney Ryan Klesko
August 13, 200719 yr Here are a few more.. with 4 or 5 of them it may be debatable as to whether they are / were better than Hermida at age 23 but with most of them it's not debatable. The point is that some of you make it seem as if only hall of famers are good at age 23 and taht's nonsense, in my opinion. Dustin Pedroia Robinson Cano Melky Cabrera Troy Glaus Frank Thomas B.J. Upton Gary Sheffield Jhonny Peralta Joe Mauer Justin Morneau Paul Konerko Vladimir Guerrero Garret Anderson Brian McCann Andruw Jones Jeff Francoeur Ryan Zimmerman Prince Fielder Ryan Braun Aramis Ramirez Scott Rolen Adam Dunn Luis Gonzalez James Loney Ryan Klesko The boldfaced guys (and some that I missed) are either players that were not better at 23, are currently 23 and might not do any better than Hermida will be season's end, or pitchers. Looking at the guys that are not boldfaced... are there any of them that we wouldn't want in the lineup (if they could indeed play RF) either right now or during their prime? BTW, this is a list of players that includes a large number of HoF candidates.
August 14, 200719 yr Here are a few more.. with 4 or 5 of them it may be debatable as to whether they are / were better than Hermida at age 23 but with most of them it's not debatable. The point is that some of you make it seem as if only hall of famers are good at age 23 and taht's nonsense, in my opinion. Dustin Pedroia Robinson Cano Melky Cabrera Troy Glaus Frank Thomas B.J. Upton Gary Sheffield Jhonny Peralta Joe Mauer Justin Morneau Paul Konerko Vladimir Guerrero Garret Anderson Brian McCann Andruw Jones Jeff Francoeur Ryan Zimmerman Prince Fielder Ryan Braun Aramis Ramirez Scott Rolen Adam Dunn Luis Gonzalez James Loney Ryan Klesko The boldfaced guys (and some that I missed) are either players that were not better at 23, are currently 23 and might not do any better than Hermida will be season's end, or pitchers. Looking at the guys that are not boldfaced... are there any of them that we wouldn't want in the lineup (if they could indeed play RF) either right now or during their prime? BTW, this is a list of players that includes a large number of HoF candidates. Yeah by my count there's about 5 HOFers on that list and another couple who could be in the conversation, plus some top 5 prospects in baseball, a bunch of 40 home runs guys and a bunch of guys who had good 23 seasons and then slumped the next year. For every guy who has been better than him at 23, there are 20 or 30 guys who weren't even full time major leaguers.
August 14, 200719 yr BTW, this is a list of players that includes a large number of HoF candidates. What my list and your list show is that a boat load of good players are already good by age 23. You don't have to be Miguel or a Hanley to be good at 23. In baseball terms you're no longer a baby at 23.
August 14, 200719 yr BTW, this is a list of players that includes a large number of HoF candidates. What my list and your list show is that a boat load of good players are already good by age 23. You don't have to be Miguel or a Hanley to be good at 23. In baseball terms you're no longer a baby at 23. That list represents like 25 of the 775 players in major league baseball. Or like 3 percent. Thats not a boatload by any definition. The fact of the matter is most players are not even in the majors by the age of 23.
August 14, 200719 yr BTW, this is a list of players that includes a large number of HoF candidates. What my list and your list show is that a boat load of good players are already good by age 23. You don't have to be Miguel or a Hanley to be good at 23. In baseball terms you're no longer a baby at 23. That list represents like 25 of the 775 players in major league baseball. Or like 3 percent. Thats not a boatload by any definition. The fact of the matter is most players are not even in the majors by the age of 23. The pool of players in the discussion are the good players. BTW, most good players are already good at 23.
August 14, 200719 yr BTW, this is a list of players that includes a large number of HoF candidates. What my list and your list show is that a boat load of good players are already good by age 23. You don't have to be Miguel or a Hanley to be good at 23. In baseball terms you're no longer a baby at 23. That list represents like 25 of the 775 players in major league baseball. Or like 3 percent. Thats not a boatload by any definition. The fact of the matter is most players are not even in the majors by the age of 23. The pool of players in the discussion are the good players. And I can find you a list of just as many good players who didn't do anything at 23. 23 is probably the middle ground for a good player. If you're a good player, you've probably got as good a chance to succeed at 23 as you do to fail spectacularly.
August 14, 200719 yr Hermida Still sucksssssss :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown
August 14, 200719 yr I'm still dumbbbbbbbbb :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown :thumbdown Don't be so hard on yourself, man. We all make mistakes.
August 14, 200719 yr BTW, most good players are already good at 23. That doesn't hold up under scrutiny. Perhaps, and I do mean perhaps, most GREAT players were already good at 23, but that would take more scrutiny than I want to invest. But using Hermida's .800 OPS as a standard, it doesn't hold for Craig Biggio, Tony Gwynn, Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi, Admin Walker, Jim Edmonds, Barry Larkin, David Ortiz, and Moises Alou (guys I looked at to try to find great players that were good at 23). There are maybe 30 out of 254 starting lineup players that fit the mold of "as good or better than Jeremy Hermida at age 23", that is an elite distinction right there. If he avoids future injury, Jeremy Hermida will be a reliable high-OBP LH bat with decent, but not great, power and some speed. That is a tremendously valuable player.
August 14, 200719 yr Cody also faces 80% lefties, who he mashes. Unfortunately he can't hit righties for sh*t, so thats a pretty crappy comparison. Also, Hermida's OPS has been trending upwards for the past 50 games or so. If it continues, he very well may be one of the few 23 year olds who post an .850 OPS. You cannot discount his first 2 months or his last 2 months, you have to take them as a whole, and as a whole, he's most certainly 9/10 of the way there, if he isn't "there" yet. Actually Cody has more than 50% of his ABs this season against RHP (I'm not arguing that Cody's numbers aren't way better vs LHP, just stating a fact). Not that it matters much either, but Hermida has about 73% of his ABs vs RHP. And again, there's also that pesky defense issue, which does matter to some of us, because while a good defender may not save too many runs, a really bad one sure can allow a bunch on line drives. Outfield defense isn't really all that important. The difference between Cody and Jeremy over the course of a full season (assuming they both played every inning of a 162 game season) is probably no more than 10-15 runs. When you give up a run on a stupid mistake like that in the first inning it is going to have an effect on how your team plays and how your pitcher throws that go beyond the number of runs that the mistake itself allows. when a pitcher can't have confidence in his defense he has to take on more pressure and I think it is naive to think that it doesn't have a lager effect than 10-15. And hell, if those are 10-15 game winning runs, then that is a huge deal.
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