His two horrid starts in June cannot be overlooked.

 

They weren't overlooked. As I stated above, he had three sporadic poor outings. These would be 2 of the 3. He then followed the two poor outings with four good outings before running into a buzz saw on July 24th. This is where I believe the arm fatigue really started to show.

 

 

For some reason you are looking for a trend to explain a poor performance.

 

Because someone earlier in the post was saying that Mitre sucked, and was using the trend of his increasing ERA to justify his suckiness. Therefore, I came up with the whole "tired arm argument" that you and I have been debating for the past four days.

 

 

 

After May he has been greatly inconsistent, which does not fall in line with this whole arm tiring argument.

 

For the THIRD time, I believe the arm tiring began around his July 24th start.

 

I'm afraid you'll have to do much better than saying "don't ya think his arm would be tired after throwing so and so innings?" You have absolutely no idea if that is a factor or not.

 

You're right. It's purely speculation. But it makes sense to me that if pitcher X's arm is only accustomed to throwing 40 innings a year, that it would become increasingly exhausted, as he accumulated more and more innings past his comfort zone.

 

His ERA increased rapidly from 2.82 to 4.02, but it wasn't until the 100 inning mark or so he began to experience trouble.

 

EXACTLY!!! I couldn't have said it better myself!!! The time his ERA started to increase rapidly was about the time he hit 100 innings. I think you're catching on!

 

I'd say it's a stretch.

 

Call it what you want, but that's my theory. :thumbup

You're right. It's purely speculation. But it makes sense to me that if pitcher X's arm is only accustomed to throwing 40 innings a year, that it would become increasingly exhausted, as he accumulated more and more innings past his comfort zone.

 

The only problem with this assessment is that you are falsely only giving his MLB innings pitched, neglecting the fact that he pitched a large # of innings in the minors. In fact, only twice in his professional career has he pitched under 131 innings, once last year and originally in his first season in 2001.

2001: 91 IP

2002: 168.2 IP

2003: 154.1 IP

2004: 154.1 IP

2005: 131 IP

2006: 52 IP

 

So you can stop using the excuse that "he is only accustomed to 40 IP a year" because honestly it holds no water whatsoever.

You're right. It's purely speculation. But it makes sense to me that if pitcher X's arm is only accustomed to throwing 40 innings a year, that it would become increasingly exhausted, as he accumulated more and more innings past his comfort zone.

 

The only problem with this assessment is that you are falsely only giving his MLB innings pitched, neglecting the fact that he pitched a large # of innings in the minors. In fact, only twice in his professional career has he pitched under 131 innings, once last year and originally in his first season in 2001.

2001: 91 IP

2002: 168.2 IP

2003: 154.1 IP

2004: 154.1 IP

2005: 131 IP

2006: 52 IP

 

So you can stop using the excuse that "he is only accustomed to 40 IP a year" because honestly it holds no water whatsoever.

Damn, we forgot that pitching in the minors is just like pitching in the Majors...damn damn damn!

You're right. It's purely speculation. But it makes sense to me that if pitcher X's arm is only accustomed to throwing 40 innings a year, that it would become increasingly exhausted, as he accumulated more and more innings past his comfort zone.

 

The only problem with this assessment is that you are falsely only giving his MLB innings pitched, neglecting the fact that he pitched a large # of innings in the minors. In fact, only twice in his professional career has he pitched under 131 innings, once last year and originally in his first season in 2001.

2001: 91 IP

2002: 168.2 IP

2003: 154.1 IP

2004: 154.1 IP

2005: 131 IP

2006: 52 IP

 

So you can stop using the excuse that "he is only accustomed to 40 IP a year" because honestly it holds no water whatsoever.

Damn, we forgot that pitching in the minors is just like pitching in the Majors...damn damn damn!

 

Bring some meat to the table with your next comeback.

 

MLB, MiLB, he is still throwing pitches and racking up innings. Deliberately only listing MLB IP and completely neglecting MiLB IP is a strong sign of a weak argument, and when you throw those arguments into the fray...well, your original argument about arm fatigue now is irrelevant because its just plain not true.

 

I still dont get why Mitre is the only pitcher ever where no matter what, anything that negatively affects his stats should be forgotten. People go out of their way to leave the bad performances off and only count the good ones, manipulate stats to make it seem like hes never surpassed 40 IP in his professional career. Never seen a player of such questionable ability get such a sustained free pass from so many people.

You're right. It's purely speculation. But it makes sense to me that if pitcher X's arm is only accustomed to throwing 40 innings a year, that it would become increasingly exhausted, as he accumulated more and more innings past his comfort zone.

 

The only problem with this assessment is that you are falsely only giving his MLB innings pitched, neglecting the fact that he pitched a large # of innings in the minors. In fact, only twice in his professional career has he pitched under 131 innings, once last year and originally in his first season in 2001.

2001: 91 IP

2002: 168.2 IP

2003: 154.1 IP

2004: 154.1 IP

2005: 131 IP

2006: 52 IP

 

So you can stop using the excuse that "he is only accustomed to 40 IP a year" because honestly it holds no water whatsoever.

So in other words he has already known as many innings this season as he had total 2 seasons ago? And over 80 more innings than last season? Is it that hard to believe that he could be suffering from some sort of tired arm? Maybe there is nothing tired about it, but it isn't exactly farfetched to think so. Also, this is the first time he has been a fulltime starter in nearly 2 seasons

 

You're right. It's purely speculation. But it makes sense to me that if pitcher X's arm is only accustomed to throwing 40 innings a year, that it would become increasingly exhausted, as he accumulated more and more innings past his comfort zone.

 

The only problem with this assessment is that you are falsely only giving his MLB innings pitched, neglecting the fact that he pitched a large # of innings in the minors. In fact, only twice in his professional career has he pitched under 131 innings, once last year and originally in his first season in 2001.

2001: 91 IP

2002: 168.2 IP

2003: 154.1 IP

2004: 154.1 IP

2005: 131 IP

2006: 52 IP

 

So you can stop using the excuse that "he is only accustomed to 40 IP a year" because honestly it holds no water whatsoever.

Damn, we forgot that pitching in the minors is just like pitching in the Majors...damn damn damn!

 

Bring some meat to the table with your next comeback.

 

MLB, MiLB, he is still throwing pitches and racking up innings. Deliberately only listing MLB IP and completely neglecting MiLB IP is a strong sign of a weak argument, and when you throw those arguments into the fray...well, your original argument about arm fatigue now is irrelevant because its just plain not true.

 

I still dont get why Mitre is the only pitcher ever where no matter what, anything that negatively affects his stats should be forgotten. People go out of their way to leave the bad performances off and only count the good ones, manipulate stats to make it seem like hes never surpassed 40 IP in his professional career. Never seen a player of such questionable ability get such a sustained free pass from so many people.

 

It's nothing to do with blindly backup up Mitre. It has to do with the fact that he has been pretty good this season and because you hate him so, you believe he should be in Albuquerque by now. The fact 14 of 22 starts have been good (or better) shows that as a 26 year old with a pretty good sinkerball, he can certainly improve in the next coming seasons. He hasn't even hit his pitching peak yet. No one here believe he can be an ace by any means and it may be a bit presumptuous of me and Godfather (and whoever else) to think he can put up Derek Lowe numbers in his prime. But he can certainly be a very good #4 pitcher and an excellent back ender to any rotation.

 

I don't understand what is so bad about 14 of 22 starts going for 3 earned or less (13 of those for 2er or less). Please enlighten us all.

After 100 innings, an ERA jump from 2.82 to 4.02 attributed to large part tiring, to me, sounds like a weak assumption even if he has never pitched a full season at the major league level.

Am I the only one who thinks it's a very strong assumption?

I think you just really overrate Mitre to succeed and downplay or completely ignore pretty much anything negative Mitre does.

 

You continuously bring up that 14 of his 22 starts have been good or better, but leave out that 8 of those 14 happened in April and May, as opposed to post-May which is the timeframe everyone is talking about. Since June 1st, he has made 14 starts and given up 4 or more ER in 7 of the 14(5 or more in 6 of the 14), obviously nowhere near the ratio that your skewed seasons worth would tend to suggest.

After 100 innings, an ERA jump from 2.82 to 4.02 attributed to large part tiring, to me, sounds like a weak assumption even if he has never pitched a full season at the major league level.

Am I the only one who thinks it's a very strong assumption?

 

Strong assumption, sure? But I think it's impact is overstated.

I think you just really overrate Mitre to succeed and downplay or completely ignore pretty much anything negative Mitre does.

 

You continuously bring up that 14 of his 22 starts have been good or better, but leave out that 8 of those 14 happened in April and May, as opposed to post-May which is the timeframe everyone is talking about. Since June 1st, he has made 14 starts and given up 4 or more ER in 7 of the 14(5 or more in 6 of the 14), obviously nowhere near the ratio that your skewed seasons worth would tend to suggest.

Actually, 7 of the 14 were in April/May

 

so he's had 7 real good start since, and 7 crap ones... sounds like the season of a #4 pitcher

 

at age 26, with a good sinker, I see no reason why he can't improve

Let me ask something. Do you consider Jason Marquis anything more than a 5th starter?

Let me ask something. Do you consider Jason Marquis anything more than a 5th starter?

He's a solid #4

Well, IMO he has a (much)better sinker than Mitre and his overall repertoire, while not great, is probably superior as well.

 

IIRC Marquis always profiled higher as well. Either way, they are essentially the same pitcher.

 

So Marquis is a #4 yet Mitre is a good #3 to you, I find that interesting.

Well, IMO he has a (much)better sinker than Mitre and his overall repertoire, while not great, is probably superior as well.

 

IIRC Marquis always profiled higher as well. Either way, they are essentially the same pitcher.

 

So Marquis is a #4 yet Mitre is a good #3 to you, I find that interesting.

 

 

The difference is that Jason Marquis will be 30 next year and is coming off of a season in which his ERA was over 6. I'd say that limits any potential you have of being considered a #3 starter in your career. While Mitre is only 26 and has a solid 4.02 ERA in his first full season in the Majors while also being slowed down by nagging injuries.

 

They do have a similar repertoire though, so give me the younger guy(by 3years)with better numbers this year.

Well, IMO he has a (much)better sinker than Mitre and his overall repertoire, while not great, is probably superior as well.

 

IIRC Marquis always profiled higher as well. Either way, they are essentially the same pitcher.

 

So Marquis is a #4 yet Mitre is a good #3 to you, I find that interesting.

 

 

The difference is that Jason Marquis will be 30 next year and is coming off of a season in which his ERA was over 6. I'd say that limits any potential you have of being considered a #3 starter in your career. While Mitre is only 26 and has a solid 4.02 ERA in his first full season in the Majors while also being slowed down by nagging injuries.

 

They do have a similar repertoire though, so give me the younger guy(by 3years)with better numbers this year.

ding.

Well, this settles it. I just got off the phone with Sergio. He said that his arm did, indeed, start to wear out around the 24th of July. He also said he has had discussions with the FO and they pretty much told him he was going to be the #2 starter in the rotation next season, so they could split up the two lefties in Willis and Olsen. Thread closed.

 

:shifty

Well, this settles it. I just got off the phone with Sergio. He said that his arm did, indeed, start to wear out around the 24th of July. He also said he has had discussions with the FO and they pretty much told him he was going to be the #2 starter in the rotation next season, so they could split up the two lefties in Willis and Olsen. Thread closed.

 

:shifty

all the work you just did trying to defend Mitre was just thrown out the window with this gem

 

:confused

That's alright. No worries friend. Besides, I am tired of explaining and re-explaining. I felt like I was trying to teach Calculus to a class of 1st graders.

 

Plus, I figure Sergio's still got to walk the walk himself. My defending him on here isn't going to affect that.

Well, this settles it. I just got off the phone with Sergio. He said that his arm did, indeed, start to wear out around the 24th of July. He also said he has had discussions with the FO and they pretty much told him he was going to be the #2 starter in the rotation next season, so they could split up the two lefties in Willis and Olsen. Thread closed.

 

:shifty

 

What does he think of Spike?

That's alright. No worries friend. Besides, I am tired of explaining and re-explaining. I felt like I was trying to teach Calculus to a class of 1st graders.

 

Plus, I figure Sergio's still got to walk the walk himself. My defending him on here isn't going to affect that.

 

Im still getting a chuckle out of your "hes only used to throwing 40 ip a year" excuse that has no relevance or fact to it whatsoever.

 

I still reiterate I DO NOT HATE HIM! Once again, just never seen a pitcher with such questionable ability get such a free pass. Thats what I personally dont understand.

Maybe Mitre cant count then I guess.

That's alright. No worries friend. Besides, I am tired of explaining and re-explaining. I felt like I was trying to teach Calculus to a class of 1st graders.

 

Plus, I figure Sergio's still got to walk the walk himself. My defending him on here isn't going to affect that.

 

Im still getting a chuckle out of your "hes only used to throwing 40 ip a year" excuse that has no relevance or fact to it whatsoever.

 

I still reiterate I DO NOT HATE HIM! Once again, just never seen a pitcher with such questionable ability get such a free pass. Thats what I personally dont understand.

 

2006 GCL Marlins 1.0 IP

2006 Florida Marlins 41.0 IP

 

41.0 + 1.0 = 42.0 IP

 

42.0 IP in a season + an arm injury = his arm was only used for 42 IP.

 

Don't know how else to spell it out to you. I suppose I could try crayons, or maybe sculpting it out of Play-Doh.

That's alright. No worries friend. Besides, I am tired of explaining and re-explaining. I felt like I was trying to teach Calculus to a class of 1st graders.

 

Plus, I figure Sergio's still got to walk the walk himself. My defending him on here isn't going to affect that.

 

Im still getting a chuckle out of your "hes only used to throwing 40 ip a year" excuse that has no relevance or fact to it whatsoever.

 

I still reiterate I DO NOT HATE HIM! Once again, just never seen a pitcher with such questionable ability get such a free pass. Thats what I personally dont understand.

not sure what free pass he is getting, but whatever

That's alright. No worries friend. Besides, I am tired of explaining and re-explaining. I felt like I was trying to teach Calculus to a class of 1st graders.

 

Plus, I figure Sergio's still got to walk the walk himself. My defending him on here isn't going to affect that.

 

Im still getting a chuckle out of your "hes only used to throwing 40 ip a year" excuse that has no relevance or fact to it whatsoever.

 

I still reiterate I DO NOT HATE HIM! Once again, just never seen a pitcher with such questionable ability get such a free pass. Thats what I personally dont understand.

 

2006 GCL Marlins 1.0 IP

2006 Florida Marlins 41.0 IP

 

41.0 + 1.0 = 42.0 IP

 

42.0 IP in a season + an arm injury = his arm was only used for 42 IP.

 

Don't know how else to spell it out to you. I suppose I could try crayons, or maybe sculpting it out of Play-Doh.

 

He threw 97 ip in 01, and 130+ from 02-05. So again, your argument holds no weight whatsover.

That's alright. No worries friend. Besides, I am tired of explaining and re-explaining. I felt like I was trying to teach Calculus to a class of 1st graders.

 

Plus, I figure Sergio's still got to walk the walk himself. My defending him on here isn't going to affect that.

 

Im still getting a chuckle out of your "hes only used to throwing 40 ip a year" excuse that has no relevance or fact to it whatsoever.

 

I still reiterate I DO NOT HATE HIM! Once again, just never seen a pitcher with such questionable ability get such a free pass. Thats what I personally dont understand.

 

2006 GCL Marlins 1.0 IP

2006 Florida Marlins 41.0 IP

 

41.0 + 1.0 = 42.0 IP

 

42.0 IP in a season + an arm injury = his arm was only used for 42 IP.

 

Don't know how else to spell it out to you. I suppose I could try crayons, or maybe sculpting it out of Play-Doh.

 

He threw 97 ip in 01, and 130+ from 02-05. So again, your argument holds no weight whatsover.

We're talking 2 years ago that he threw 131 innings. Last year he he threw all of 41. And those 131 innings from 2005 were both as a starter and a reliever. This is the first year he has gone this far as a pure starter.

 

I think an argument that he could be getting tired because of the amount of innings he has gone this year, as opposed to last year holds plenty of weight. I don't see why it wouldn't. Talking about what he did 2 years ago doesn't hold any weight.

That's alright. No worries friend. Besides, I am tired of explaining and re-explaining. I felt like I was trying to teach Calculus to a class of 1st graders.

 

Plus, I figure Sergio's still got to walk the walk himself. My defending him on here isn't going to affect that.

 

Im still getting a chuckle out of your "hes only used to throwing 40 ip a year" excuse that has no relevance or fact to it whatsoever.

 

I still reiterate I DO NOT HATE HIM! Once again, just never seen a pitcher with such questionable ability get such a free pass. Thats what I personally dont understand.

 

2006 GCL Marlins 1.0 IP

2006 Florida Marlins 41.0 IP

 

41.0 + 1.0 = 42.0 IP

 

42.0 IP in a season + an arm injury = his arm was only used for 42 IP.

 

Don't know how else to spell it out to you. I suppose I could try crayons, or maybe sculpting it out of Play-Doh.

 

He threw 97 ip in 01, and 130+ from 02-05. So again, your argument holds no weight whatsover.

We're talking 2 years ago that he threw 131 innings. Last year he he threw all of 41. And those 131 innings from 2005 were both as a starter and a reliever. This is the first year he has gone this far as a pure starter.

 

I think an argument that he could be getting tired because of the amount of innings he has gone this year, as opposed to last year holds plenty of weight. I don't see why it wouldn't. Talking about what he did 2 years ago doesn't hold any weight.

 

Its where I degree. Being accustomed to something means its the norm, its the routine. Mitre has thrown under 100 IP twice and under 90 IP only once in his career, last year. He cant be accustomed to that.

 

You cant just totally write off such a drastic drop off in performance because of it either, especially since May ended...hes essentially pitching to his career norms(including last year).

 

People seem unwilling to even consider that this is just the pitcher Mitre is...guy with mediocre stuff that will get slammed just as often or more often than he pitches well. Its been that way his entire career. You say "well the Cubs mishandled him", well...hes pitching exactly that same way again this year. Theres a reason he was projected as a 5th starter/middle reliever at best.

 

Even I have contemplated that what we saw through May could be the real Mitre, although he has really hammered home that that just isnt the case. My words didnt do it, he did it all by himself.

 

The reason I say he gets a free pass is because every single Mitre supporter will make up excuse after excuse(i.e., deliberately leaving off MiLB IP to say that hes never pitched more than 40 IP in his career) and will try to tell people to not even pay attention to his bad games...they dont matter to the supporters, only his good games should be recognized. Thats why Mitre gets a free pass.

 

Hes not a talented pitcher. If his sinker isnt working, hes going to get destroyed. Yet he has been given more benefit of the doubt and coddling from certain members of this board than any other pitcher I have ever seen. And the relatively small # of posters that hold Mitre in high esteem(Ramp, Godfather, Sgleason or whatever...probably a few others) just cant understand why SOME people just dont hold their lofty views of Sergio Mitre. And considering him a 3rd starter is a lofty view, as besides sporadic un-sustained stretches, he has never shown that to be the case.

 

BTW Ramp, thinks for the advice. I did the interview with Jay Voss yesterday. Went pretty well.