A lot of you have been concerned about Ricky Nolasco this year. His 6.63 ERA would suggest that he has been downright awful, but really, he hasn't been all that bad. I was looking over some stats, and I noticed that he has a FIP of 4.08.

 

FIP, for those of you who don't know, stands for Fielding-Independent Pitching. FIP basically tells you what a pitcher's ERA would be if he were pitching in front of league-average defense. Ricky's FIP is over 2.5 runs higher than his ERA--a significant margin. What does this tell us? 2 things.

 

1) Nolasco has been really unlucky

 

2) The Marlins defense has been bad, at least when Ricky is pitching.

 

Also, to shed further light on Nolasco's misfortunes, his BABIP is asstoundingly high at .380.

 

BABIP is Batting Average on Balls in Play. The average BABIP for a pitcher is about .300, so Ricky's .380 means he has been really unlucky and is not getting much help from his defense.

 

So, don't worry about Ricky. He's not pitching great, but he's not pitching as poorly as one might assume. The bad luck will level itself out, and he will start to put up better numbers. He'll be just fine.

Ricky has not delivered the ball with the confidence that he is going to need in order to succeed.

two things

 

1) with the massive amount of XBH hits Ricky gives up, he'll always be above his FIP

 

2) his BABIP is not unlucky, and his defense is not letting him down. Based off his LD rates, his expected BABIP would be .402, and he's at .380

 

He's not making quality strikes right now. He's too scared of giving up walks, so he ends up throwing 0-2 fastballs right down the middle of the plate. This should not continue because he is not this bad of a pitcher, but it's not because he's been unlucky.

If Ricky stops throwing 0-2 pitches (or whenever he is ahead in the count) over the plate all the time and gets the hitter to expand the strike zone and chase after pitches, then I think he will be fine

So high LD%, high BABIP mean no fluke... Any type of average LD%, high BABIP tells you fluke right?

So high LD%, high BABIP mean no fluke... Any type of average LD%, high BABIP tells you fluke right?

 

Yeah. General rule of thumb is, add .120 to LD% (i.e. Ricky's is 28.2%, .282+.120=.402). There's better ways to get a better expected BABIP, but we're talking about an improvement of a few points, +.120 LD% is quick and easy and "good enough" for this.

 

however it's also about sustainability.

 

The average LD% for a pitch is normally around 18-19%

 

For example, let's say a guy has a 10% LD rate. So his BABIP of .220 isn't lucky. But it's unlikely that his LD% will be able to be that low throughout the entire season, because he's facing the best hitters in the world. For a pitcher to able to sustain a 10% LD rate against MLB hitters, it means that he has to transend into a new level of talent. Gregg Maddux was only pumping out 17% LD rates in his prime to give an example that even "all time greats" aren't much better than the average mark in that field.

 

Likewise, a high LD% rate is not sustainable. Either because of a player just plain isn't that bad and has had a rough few starts (but not "lucky" or "unlucky", just didn't pitch well, sh*t happens), or because he's not a MLB quality pitcher. If you have a high LD rate against...either it goes down, or your out of the league. Ricky has a track record, and so his high LD rate shouldn't be sustainable because of his talent and it should go down.

Ugg...I'm in the military and I HATE HATE HATE abbreviations...wtf does LD% stand for please?

Line Drive percent, or percent of balls that fall in fair territory that are line drives (out of the three options of ground ball [GB], fly ball [GB], and then line drive [LD]).

Line Drive percent, or percent of balls that fall in fair territory that are line drives (out of the three options of ground ball [GB], fly ball [GB], and then line drive [LD]).

 

Heh...Line drive...duh :banghead

 

(FB for fly ball, btw xP Typo)

two things

 

1) with the massive amount of XBH hits Ricky gives up, he'll always be above his FIP

 

2) his BABIP is not unlucky, and his defense is not letting him down. Based off his LD rates, his expected BABIP would be .402, and he's at .380

 

He's not making quality strikes right now. He's too scared of giving up walks, so he ends up throwing 0-2 fastballs right down the middle of the plate. This should not continue because he is not this bad of a pitcher, but it's not because he's been unlucky.

 

Bingo. It's not just 0-2 fastballs, though. That hanging curveball to Derrek Lee comes to mind as well.

two things

 

1) with the massive amount of XBH hits Ricky gives up, he'll always be above his FIP

 

2) his BABIP is not unlucky, and his defense is not letting him down. Based off his LD rates, his expected BABIP would be .402, and he's at .380

 

He's not making quality strikes right now. He's too scared of giving up walks, so he ends up throwing 0-2 fastballs right down the middle of the plate. This should not continue because he is not this bad of a pitcher, but it's not because he's been unlucky.

 

Bingo. It's not just 0-2 fastballs, though. That hanging curveball to Derrek Lee comes to mind as well.

Well, it's more than just one bad pitch though. I can tell you of anyone not named Greinke who's thrown a bad pitch that ended up in the seats.

A lot of you have been concerned about Ricky Nolasco this year. His 6.63 ERA would suggest that he has been downright awful, but really, he hasn't been all that bad. I was looking over some stats, and I noticed that he has a FIP of 4.08.

 

FIP, for those of you who don't know, stands for Fielding-Independent Pitching. FIP basically tells you what a pitcher's ERA would be if he were pitching in front of league-average defense. Ricky's FIP is over 2.5 runs higher than his ERA--a significant margin. What does this tell us? 2 things.

 

1) Nolasco has been really unlucky

 

2) The Marlins defense has been bad, at least when Ricky is pitching.

 

Also, to shed further light on Nolasco's misfortunes, his BABIP is asstoundingly high at .380.

 

BABIP is Batting Average on Balls in Play. The average BABIP for a pitcher is about .300, so Ricky's .380 means he has been really unlucky and is not getting much help from his defense.

 

So, don't worry about Ricky. He's not pitching great, but he's not pitching as poorly as one might assume. The bad luck will level itself out, and he will start to put up better numbers. He'll be just fine.

This "stat" telling us that Ricky has a 6.63 ERA because of bad luck is a perfect example of a case where "stats" lie.

 

I hate bad stats. They give good stats a bad name.

A lot of you have been concerned about Ricky Nolasco this year. His 6.63 ERA would suggest that he has been downright awful, but really, he hasn't been all that bad. I was looking over some stats, and I noticed that he has a FIP of 4.08.

 

FIP, for those of you who don't know, stands for Fielding-Independent Pitching. FIP basically tells you what a pitcher's ERA would be if he were pitching in front of league-average defense. Ricky's FIP is over 2.5 runs higher than his ERA--a significant margin. What does this tell us? 2 things.

 

1) Nolasco has been really unlucky

 

2) The Marlins defense has been bad, at least when Ricky is pitching.

 

Also, to shed further light on Nolasco's misfortunes, his BABIP is asstoundingly high at .380.

 

BABIP is Batting Average on Balls in Play. The average BABIP for a pitcher is about .300, so Ricky's .380 means he has been really unlucky and is not getting much help from his defense.

 

So, don't worry about Ricky. He's not pitching great, but he's not pitching as poorly as one might assume. The bad luck will level itself out, and he will start to put up better numbers. He'll be just fine.

This "stat" telling us that Ricky has a 6.63 ERA because of bad luck is a perfect example of a case where "stats" lie.

 

I hate bad stats. They give good stats a bad name.

Actually, the stats aren't lying. The stats don't actually say that he's been unlucky.

A lot of you have been concerned about Ricky Nolasco this year. His 6.63 ERA would suggest that he has been downright awful, but really, he hasn't been all that bad. I was looking over some stats, and I noticed that he has a FIP of 4.08.

 

FIP, for those of you who don't know, stands for Fielding-Independent Pitching. FIP basically tells you what a pitcher's ERA would be if he were pitching in front of league-average defense. Ricky's FIP is over 2.5 runs higher than his ERA--a significant margin. What does this tell us? 2 things.

 

1) Nolasco has been really unlucky

 

2) The Marlins defense has been bad, at least when Ricky is pitching.

 

Also, to shed further light on Nolasco's misfortunes, his BABIP is asstoundingly high at .380.

 

BABIP is Batting Average on Balls in Play. The average BABIP for a pitcher is about .300, so Ricky's .380 means he has been really unlucky and is not getting much help from his defense.

 

So, don't worry about Ricky. He's not pitching great, but he's not pitching as poorly as one might assume. The bad luck will level itself out, and he will start to put up better numbers. He'll be just fine.

This "stat" telling us that Ricky has a 6.63 ERA because of bad luck is a perfect example of a case where "stats" lie.

 

I hate bad stats. They give good stats a bad name.

Actually, the stats aren't lying. The stats don't actually say that he's been unlucky.

Ok. The stat (FIP) didn't lie. The guy who said Ricky is having an unlucky year based on his FIP lied. It should be noted that he's not the only one who lies based on FIP. One stat guru in one of the baseball sites had an article last week saying a pitcher (forget who) was having an unlucky year because of the gap between his ERA and FIP. I guess FIP causes people to lie.

A lot of you have been concerned about Ricky Nolasco this year. His 6.63 ERA would suggest that he has been downright awful, but really, he hasn't been all that bad. I was looking over some stats, and I noticed that he has a FIP of 4.08.

 

FIP, for those of you who don't know, stands for Fielding-Independent Pitching. FIP basically tells you what a pitcher's ERA would be if he were pitching in front of league-average defense. Ricky's FIP is over 2.5 runs higher than his ERA--a significant margin. What does this tell us? 2 things.

 

1) Nolasco has been really unlucky

 

2) The Marlins defense has been bad, at least when Ricky is pitching.

 

Also, to shed further light on Nolasco's misfortunes, his BABIP is asstoundingly high at .380.

 

BABIP is Batting Average on Balls in Play. The average BABIP for a pitcher is about .300, so Ricky's .380 means he has been really unlucky and is not getting much help from his defense.

 

So, don't worry about Ricky. He's not pitching great, but he's not pitching as poorly as one might assume. The bad luck will level itself out, and he will start to put up better numbers. He'll be just fine.

This "stat" telling us that Ricky has a 6.63 ERA because of bad luck is a perfect example of a case where "stats" lie.

 

I hate bad stats. They give good stats a bad name.

Actually, the stats aren't lying. The stats don't actually say that he's been unlucky.

Ok. The stat (FIP) didn't lie. The guy who said Ricky is having an unlucky year based on his FIP lied. It should be noted that he's not the only one who lies based on FIP. One stat guru in one of the baseball sites had an article last week saying a pitcher (forget who) was having an unlucky year because of the gap between his ERA and FIP. I guess FIP causes people to lie.

Lie is a strong word. It's one thing to lie and anther thing to misread what the stat is actually saying.

A lot of you have been concerned about Ricky Nolasco this year. His 6.63 ERA would suggest that he has been downright awful, but really, he hasn't been all that bad. I was looking over some stats, and I noticed that he has a FIP of 4.08.

 

FIP, for those of you who don't know, stands for Fielding-Independent Pitching. FIP basically tells you what a pitcher's ERA would be if he were pitching in front of league-average defense. Ricky's FIP is over 2.5 runs higher than his ERA--a significant margin. What does this tell us? 2 things.

 

1) Nolasco has been really unlucky

 

2) The Marlins defense has been bad, at least when Ricky is pitching.

 

Also, to shed further light on Nolasco's misfortunes, his BABIP is asstoundingly high at .380.

 

BABIP is Batting Average on Balls in Play. The average BABIP for a pitcher is about .300, so Ricky's .380 means he has been really unlucky and is not getting much help from his defense.

 

So, don't worry about Ricky. He's not pitching great, but he's not pitching as poorly as one might assume. The bad luck will level itself out, and he will start to put up better numbers. He'll be just fine.

This "stat" telling us that Ricky has a 6.63 ERA because of bad luck is a perfect example of a case where "stats" lie.

 

I hate bad stats. They give good stats a bad name.

Actually, the stats aren't lying. The stats don't actually say that he's been unlucky.

Ok. The stat (FIP) didn't lie. The guy who said Ricky is having an unlucky year based on his FIP lied. It should be noted that he's not the only one who lies based on FIP. One stat guru in one of the baseball sites had an article last week saying a pitcher (forget who) was having an unlucky year because of the gap between his ERA and FIP. I guess FIP causes people to lie.

Lie is a strong word. It's one thing to lie and anther thing to misread what the stat is actually saying.

I originally said this was a case where "stats" lie and you went all technical on me so if you want to get technical then the guy is the one who lied by misusing the stat.

Lying generally implies that you are intentionally and knowingly misusing a stat. I don't think Puma is intentionally misleading anyone, he was posting the outcome he came to, which happens to not have been right.

Lying generally implies that you are intentionally and knowingly misusing a stat. I don't think Puma is intentionally misleading anyone, he was posting the outcome he came to, which happens to not have been right.

Exactly. I wasn't getting "technical", that's just not what lying is.

 

By your definition of lying, Poloa, I'd say that you yourself were lying about stats lying. That is unless you actually knew that and just wanted to turn this into a "stats lie" post, in which case you're lying via the actually definition of lying.