Current Standings:

 

Division - 7.0 Back

Wild Card - 5.5 Back

 

Our Remaining Opponents:

 

NYM, SD, ATL, @WSH, @NYM, WSH, @STL, @CIN, PHI, NYM, @ATL

 

We face the Mets and Nats quite a few times each, which is good news for us given the Mets injury situation and our historical record against the Nats (hopefully the earlier sweep by them was a once-off). The final series against Philly and Atlanta will be ridiculously crucial.

 

(Please note: The below predictions / analysis is dependent on us keeping to win at a decent percentage)

 

 

Our Biggest Competitors For Division - Philly:

 

They face San Fran a few more times which could help us. They also face the Nats, Mets and Braves quite a few more times. The fact that they have 6 games coming up against the Braves helps us, as there are 3 possible outcomes:

 

- Braves beat up Philly: Will allow us to gain big ground on them in the NL East.

- Philly beat up Braves: Will effectively eliminate the Braves from the pennant race.

- Teams split series: Will allow us to gain ground on Philly / distance ourselves from the Braves.

 

 

I haven't broken down the Braves potential here because I think we hold our own destiny with them considering we play 6 more games, it's up to us to put them out of the race imo.

 

 

Our Biggest Competitors For Wildcard - Colorado:

 

They have a ridiculously easy schedule, facing the Mets, Padres and D'Backs multiple times. They also have 6 more games remaining against San Fran. We can only hope for one of them choking or splitting the series.

 

Our Biggest Competitors For Wildcard - San Francisco:

 

They have a much tougher schedule, lining up against the Dodgers several more times, Philly, Cubs and Brewers.

 

 

So in my opinion, if things keep pace at the rate they currently are, I think the Rockies are by far our biggest competition, especially with the schedule they have. I don't see the Giants keeping in the race.

 

But... I also think we may have a bigger chance at winning the Division, based on the schedule. We can control our own destiny so to speak, over the Braves ... and pending we get a little bit of help, Philly could always choke. I just don't see us catching the Rockies with the form they're in and the schedule.

 

Thoughts?

 

(By the way I'm not saying we will win one or the other, just saying which do you think we have MORE of a chance with)

The wildcard.

The Phillies are a very good team, while I think the Rockies are overachieving right now. Aaron Cook is on the DL, and I'm predicting that Marquis cools down sooner or later.

I don't see us catching the Phillies. They are just too good. I mean, it's not impossible, but I just don't see it happening.

 

The WC is our way to the playoffs. Now, I wouldn't be suprised to see the Rockies winning the division, putting the Dodgers as the WC leaders. And that could help us because the Dodgers are not playing well. If the Dodgers continue to struggle, I think we can pass them as the WC leaders.

The WC is our way to the playoffs. Now, I wouldn't be suprised to see the Rockies winning the division, putting the Dodgers as the WC leaders. And that could help us because the Dodgers are not playing well. If the Dodgers continue to struggle, I think we can pass them as the WC leaders.

 

 

This is a good point and something I didn't think of in my first post. The Rockies are only 2 games behind the division lead now. The only problem is that the Dodgers also have a VERY easy schedule with lots of games remaining against the D'Backs, Padres, Pirates and Nationals.

The WC is our way to the playoffs. Now, I wouldn't be suprised to see the Rockies winning the division, putting the Dodgers as the WC leaders. And that could help us because the Dodgers are not playing well. If the Dodgers continue to struggle, I think we can pass them as the WC leaders.

 

 

This is a good point and something I didn't think of in my first post. The Rockies are only 2 games behind the division lead now. The only problem is that the Dodgers also have a VERY easy schedule with lots of games remaining against the D'Backs, Padres, Pirates and Nationals.

 

 

Sometimes those turn out to be the dangerous teams.

Sometimes those turn out to be the dangerous teams.

 

Absolutely. There's always a huge randomness factor on both an individual player and team level. Reversion to the mean and all that.

 

My opinion a couple of months ago was that our better chance was in the division and it still is because we play division rivals many more times and it's where you control your own destiny.

 

But, no matter what, there's always the coin-flip aspect to any and all games, so you never know.

The Fish have a better chance of catching the wildcard, right now the Rox are overachieving, and even if they stay this ridiculously hot the Dodgers are very cold right now, so we might end up chasing the Dodgers and not the Rockies, either way i would like them to win the division, but that will eventually happen.

I like to think we have a better shot against the division because we still have 6 games left against the phillies while we no longer play the rockies.

I think it's about the same but unless the starting pitching improves by a lot I don't like our chances. The hitting will slow down as a .360 babip this month is unsustainable.

I think it's about the same but unless the starting pitching improves by a lot I don't like our chances. The hitting will slow down as a .360 babip this month is unsustainable.

 

 

LIES!!!!!!!!

The wildcard.

The Phillies are a very good team, while I think the Rockies are overachieving right now. Aaron Cook is on the DL, and I'm predicting that Marquis cools down sooner or later.

 

Basically this.

 

I think the odds are significantly higher that Colorado will melt down or at least play mediocre than Philly will do the same. Philly is just a far better team, especially in the pitching department. Obviously they have a gaping hole at closer, where Lidge is light years worse than he was last season.