December 24, 201015 yr Who cares who's in center and left field? Mike Stanton runs 120 MPH. Any pop up in the outfield and he's going to record the out. Wow. Wow. ALL wrong, Dim... ... He runs 140. With a bad ankle Sitting down. Well if he's sitting down, the bad ankle doesn't factor into anything.
December 26, 201015 yr I haven't done a comparative analysis of Nolasco's BB%, HR%, Flyball%, etc with respect to the rest of the league, but I'm not satisfied yet that he's much better than he was in 2009-2010. I don't know if you know it, but F(ielding) I(ndependent) P(itching) is a stat that attempts to do just that. Over the last three years, his FIP is exceptionally static: 3.77, 3.35, 3.86. He's also a guy who will give up home runs and XBH, so that may fluctuate, but his skillset represents a pitcher that is better than what he has been. Whether it will neutralize is another question, but there's plenty of reasons to think he can be a sub-4.00 era pitcher. I do know of it. I suppose I'm more or less acknowledging that those numbers are static, but this in turn implies to me that his 2008 ERA (his only sub 4 season) seems like an outlier. Nolasco's FIP numbers are actually pretty good overall, because he has some very respectable strikeout rates and walk rates. As a result of this, his FIP puts him with some of the better pitchers in the league, most of whom are consistently putting up sub-4.00 ERAs. It seems to me that on the surface, FIP might not be the bast correlation with ERA. In Nolasco's case, hidden within the respectable FIP, is an exceptionally high HR rate. The K and BB rates seem to mask this. If you compare Nolasco's HR/9 and HR/FB rates to the rest of the qualifying starters, Nolasco is on the same tier with a lot of the more mediocre guys. Starters with his home run rates seem to be more or less 4.50 ERA types, with a small number of exceptions (there are some though). What this seems to tell me is that his home run problems are difficult to overcome (after all, his BB and K rates are respectable) and that he might be forever destined to be a 4.00+ ERA pitcher.
December 26, 201015 yr Who cares who's in center and left field? Mike Stanton runs 120 MPH. Any pop up in the outfield and he's going to record the out. Wow. Wow. ALL wrong, Dim... ... He runs 140. With a bad ankle Sitting down. Well if he's sitting down, the bad ankle doesn't factor into anything. He still uses his feet to run. Running without your feet would be impossible. God, what do you think he is?
December 27, 201015 yr Well if he's sitting down, the bad ankle doesn't factor into anything. He still uses his feet to run. Running without your feet would be impossible. God, what do you think he is? :whistle
December 27, 201015 yr The problem with Nolasco is he's a lot worse out of the stretch. Last 3 years: No one on base: 6.64 K/BB (24.9% K, 3.7% BB), .244/.275/.418/.693 OPS, .293 BABIP Men on: 2.67 K/BB (19.4% K, 7.3% BB), .275/.320/.452/.773 OPS, .317 BABIP Twice as many hitters walk when there's someone on compared to bases empty, and he's a lot more hittable as shown by the 24 point increase in BABIP. Certainly pitchers pitch worse when runners are on compared to when they're not (League average 2.51 K/BB with bases empty, 1.84 with someone on), but not to that extent. You have to wonder if the Marlins would be better off saying "f*** players stealing against us, you're a beast from the windup, do it 100% of the time" Helps explain that why when Ricky is on, he pitches some of the best games in Marlins' history (Cuz no one gets on). And when he's off, he explodes.
December 27, 201015 yr The problem with Nolasco is he's a lot worse out of the stretch. Last 3 years: No one on base: 6.64 K/BB (24.9% K, 3.7% BB), .244/.275/.418/.693 OPS, .293 BABIP Men on: 2.67 K/BB (19.4% K, 7.3% BB), .275/.320/.452/.773 OPS, .317 BABIP Twice as many hitters walk when there's someone on compared to bases empty, and he's a lot more hittable as shown by the 24 point increase in BABIP. Certainly pitchers pitch worse when runners are on compared to when they're not (League average 2.51 K/BB with bases empty, 1.84 with someone on), but not to that extent. You have to wonder if the Marlins would be better off saying "f*** players stealing against us, you're a beast from the windup, do it 100% of the time" Helps explain that why when Ricky is on, he pitches some of the best games in Marlins' history (Cuz no one gets on). And when he's off, he explodes. Do you think there is merit in my assumption that pitchers with Nolasco's HR/9 will have difficulty keeping an ERA under 4.00?
December 27, 201015 yr You're lucky I'm bored haha From 2005-2010, here's SP with a ~4 FIP and a +/- .05 HR/9 from Ricky's (so 1.18-1.28, Nolasco at a 3.91 FIP in that time frame) (Order is from lowest HR/9 to highest if that means anything, I'm just going strait up the list) Scott Baker: 4.04 FIP, 4.32 ERA Javier Vazquez: 3.89 FIP, 4.25 ERA Aaron Harang, 4.15 FIP, 4.02 ERA James Shields: 4.03 FIP, 4.25 ERA Curt Shilling: 3.81 FIP, 4.30 ERA Ricky Nolasco: 3.91 FIP, 4.45 ERA Brett Myers: 4.1 FIP, 3.91 ERA So only two of seven had a lower ERA than FIP, and one of them (Myers) had some RP time so you could argue he shouldn't even be on the list. On average, ERA was 0.38 points higher for the other five. As a whole, the group averaged a FIP of 3.99 and ERA of 4.21. So yeah, there is something to it. Also, the opposite end of huge FIPs, same floor HR/9 but no ceiling, but low ERA Bronson Arroyo: 4.06 ERA, 4.50 FIP Jeremy Guthrie: 4.15 ERA, 4.72 FIP Ted Lilly: 4.00 ERA, 4.38 FIP (1.36 HR/9) Brad Radke: 4.17 ERA, 4.54 FIP (1.41 HR/9)
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