Here's how it goes. Each side makes their opening argument. One side goes first. Once the other side goes, the first side may post again and defend his argument. You can only go again once the opposing side gets to speak. You've got 48 hours.

 

ONLY the competitors of this specific debate, the judges and myself may post in this thread.

 

At the end the judges will privately vote on a winner.

 

This debate ends 9:00 PM Eastern on 11/25.

 

Topic - Should the Marlins go after Vladimir Guerrero?

 

Yes - Wild Card

 

No - alkazoid

 

Either side may begin.

OK, for the record, the basis for most of my salary numbers are from Ramp's "How we get Vlad" plan.

 

The Marlins need to go after Vlad Guerrero. The three best players in Major League Baseball today are latin-american. He is one of those three players (Pujos, A-Rod).

 

If you think about how many more season ticket plans Ivan Rodriguez sold in '03, imagine this guy. He can do it all. He has the best arm in the game, and playing RF at the Pro, you need that. He is a guy that can hit .330, with 30-40 home runs and 120-130 RBI, while stealing 30-50 bases.

 

Now that we have his attributes out of the way, let's get down to what matters most here: cold hard cash.

 

Vlad is expected to get a contract around $15-17 Million a year, for around 4 to 5 years. Of all teams in baseball, you would expect Florida to be the least likely to make a bid like that, and get tied down to a big contract right? Well, that couldn't be farther from the truth.

 

Look at all the intangibles:

 

A) He is a latin-american player.

B) He does not like to be under scruttiny (sp); prefers a small market team.

C) The Marlins hope to be getting a new stadium, and signing a player of his caliber could definately help that along.

D)Has extreamely positive ties with Marlins current ownership/FO.

E) Teams will be reluctant to hand out $15 Million a year to anyone these days.

F) Can help sell tickets

G) Gives the team the best chance to win.

 

Now, of all those, the only one I believe you could argue against being a legit factor are F and G. But I'll tell you why they can't be.

 

You could say that "players don't sell tickets," but you can't ignore facts. It is a fact that the day Ivan Rodriguez signed his 1-year $9.3 Million dollar deal, the Marlins sold some 50+ season ticket packages. They would sell another 300+ over the next week. Well, that was before they were World Champions. Now the Marlins are the best baseball team in the world, and should sell tickets on that alone. But, sadly, they probably won't. Enter Vlad. If Pudge can advance ticket sales by that much, Vlad could double that number, increasing revenue (example: jerseys that would fly off the shelves like hot cakes).

 

As for G, some people may say that giving one guy a big contract restricts you from signing your other big name, impact guys. Well, wrong again. Derrek Lee will most likely be traded/non-tendered anyway, freeing up a good $5 Million there. Rodriguez walks, but his price tag stays the same due to deffered payments. You trade/non-tender Encarnacion, and you free up another $5 Million. You now have $10 Million right there. With a little snippet of Braden Looper, you free up $4 Million there, giving you a good solid $14 Million. Seeing that this is the closest you can get to latin-america, not to mention it's a small market with no pressure to perform at all (compared to every other town in the USA), and he already knows and likes everyone in this organization, it looks to me like a match made in heaven, as long as he gets his 4-year $56 Million deal (what's a $4-6 Million hometown discount when you're a guy like Guerrero, who would rather play where he is most comfortable).

 

The removal of Lee, Encarnacion, and Looper is extreamely likely to occur no matter what happens. Not re-signing Rodriguez is just as likely to occur. Sign Castillo at $5 Mill a year for 3 years (150K raise from '03), Lowell at $7 Mill a year for three years, and you have a batting order that looks like so:

 

Pierre

Castillo

Guerrero

Lowell

Cabrera

Conine

Castro

Gonzalez

 

That line-up right there, with virtually the same bullpen (with minor changes, ex: Looper gone) and the same rotation as the 2003 world champs, you're looking at an estimated $63-65 Million payroll, including payments to Hampton/Pudge. Loria has currently approved just, at least to OUR knowledge, a $60 Million payroll, but to get a franchise player such as Vlad that relates to a fan base such as this, you don't let the chance pass you by. Jeffrey would splurge a few Million for his favorite player (not to mention one of the best to ever play the game of baseball), just as he splurged this year for Urbina, Fox, Harris, ect., to give him and his franchise a better chance at repeating as Champs in '04.

 

If Jeffrey Loria wants to push toward a new home for the Marlins, and another ring for his other hand, he will get Vlad Guerrero. It's that simple.

Vladimir Guerrero is clearly a phenomenal baseball player. Among all active players in baseball with at least 1,000 career at-bats, Guerrero is tied for fourth in batting average (.323) and ranks fifth in slugging (.588) (http://www.nypost.com/sports/4270.htm). He is an adept base-stealer and a speedy base-runner, and he also has a powerful throwing arm. To top it all off, Vladimir Guerrero is only 27 years old. It's not difficult to see why Guerrero is universally considered to be the premier free agent in this year's free agent class.

 

Personally, I would love to see Guerrero playing for the team for which I root. Unfortunately, I happen to root for the Marlins--a team whose payroll is projected to balloon to $88 million in 2004 should the roster stay intact. General Manager Admin Beinfest must coordinate the difficult task of trimming nearly $30 million worth of fat to reach a projected figure of $60 million. Indeed, in virtually all of baseball, the Marlins are unsurpassed in the amount of projected payroll they must trim this offseason. This, in large part, is due to the front office's unwillingness to sign players to long-term contracts; as of today, we have only two players officially contracted through 2004 while a whole slew await arbitration and a number face free agency.

 

Considering that Admin Beinfest has more payroll trimming to do than almost any other GM in baseball, it is pretty clear that the most counterproductive act he could commit would be to sign a big-name, big-salary free agent such as Vladimir Guerrero.

 

For the Marlins, signing Guerrero requires more than just sacrificing a few players. If you were an Orioles fan, for example, you might ask yourself, "Which players should we give up so we can afford to sign Guerrero?" The Orioles are looking to expand payroll for next year, and they don't have a ballooning, arbitration-ridden, contract-lacking roster to worry about. The question is not so easy to pose for a Marlins fan. The Marlins must make nearly $30 million worth of cuts this offseason to keep payroll from expanding to a projected $88 million in 2004; essentially, one-third of next year's projected salary must be slashed. This will undoubtedly cost the Marlins some key players. To add Guerrero for $17 million would necessitate even more substantial player cuts. A Marlins fan might ask himself, "is it possible to make these cuts without gutting the entire core of the team?" Is it really worth it?

 

Note, also, that Beinfest is anticipated to have not more than $60 million for payroll in 2004. Deduct the $8 million that would go to Atlanta's Mike Hampton and the $3 million that would go to Pudge's deferred 2003 contract, and the Marlins actually only have $49 million to work with. Guerrero's salary would constitute more than one-third of the meager amount we have available for player salaries. How on Earth could this team keep its core together if it already has significant cutting to do?

 

It is not realistic to expect the Marlins to remain competitive after the cuts necessary to accommodate Vlad. In 2003, our five starting pitchers made less than half of what one Vladimir Guerrero is projected to make in 2004. How much must this team sacrifice to reel in Vlad? Again, is his offensive contribution really worth what it will cost a team full of young players?

 

Wildcard, I appreciate that you described how the Marlins can afford Guerrero in their lineup, but I must vehemently disagree with your final number crunching. It appears that you used Ramp's payroll worksheet partly as the basis of your argument that we can afford Guerrero. I must point out, however, that the vast majority of the numbers in his "my idea" scenario are horribly unrealistic. It is unrealistic to expect most players on a team to each make $0.5-1.5 million less than they are expected to make. It is unrealistic to have only four starting pitchers. It is unrealistic to expect most of your bullpen to subsist on league minimum salaries. Ramp, himself, pointed out that his scenario is not intended to be wholly realistic and is more "wishful thinking" than anything else.

 

The main issue I have, however, with your lineup is that it sacrifices very little, and in the end, you claim that it satisfies the requirements for "an estimated $63-65 Million payroll, including payments to Hampton/Pudge." If that were the case, I would concede this argument to you immediately. Allow me to comment on your projected lineup:

 

Pierre

Castillo

Guerrero

Lowell

Cabrera

Conine

Castro

Gonzalez

 

That line-up right there, with virtually the same bullpen (with minor changes, ex: Looper gone) and the same rotation as the 2003 world champs, you're looking at an estimated $63-65 Million payroll, including payments to Hampton/Pudge.

Not quite. If we assume that next year's payroll is $60mil, and we subtract $8mil in Hampton money and $3mil in Pudge deferred money, we are left with $49mil to work with. If I use Ramp's projected 2004 figures for the batting lineup you laid out here, it would look like this:

 

Pierre 2.3mil

Castillo 7.5mil

Guerrero 17mil

Lowell 8mil

Cabrera 0.3mil

Conine 3mil

Castro 0.4mil

Gonzalez 3mil

= 41.5 mil to your eight starting position players

 

This leaves $7.5 million TOTAL to finance your ENTIRE starting rotation, your ENTIRE bullpen, and your ENTIRE bench. Explain to me how a team that spends $7.5mil NET on these most vital components can manage to be successful?

 

This would essentially make it impossible to keep "the same rotation as the 2003 world champs" and "virtually the same bullpen (with minor changes, ex: Looper gone)." Remember that our great pitching is what got us to the World Series this year. Would you sacrifice this to pick up Vlad? Peter Gammons lists a number of specifics regarding projected arbitration numbers for several of our starting pitchers, and I have listed some of those projected figures below. If we indeed keep the same starting rotation, we would have:

 

Mark Redman 3.75mil

Brad Penny 3.5mil

AJ Burnett 3.5mil

Josh Beckett 2.1mil

Carl Pavano 3.5mil

Dontrelle Willis 0.375mil

= 16.725 mil to have "the same rotation as the 2003 world champs"

 

Thus, so far, our salary total is at 41.5 mil + 16.725 mil + 8 mil (Hampton) + 3 mil (Pudge deferred) = 69.225 mil. Of course, we haven't even gotten to the bullpen or bench, yet.

 

You also suggest that we can keep "virtually the same bullpen" (minus Looper). Urbina alone should add another 5mil to the pot (thus moving our total to $74mil). If you scrape together a complete bullpen AND a complete bench to this supposed wonder team, the salary should EASILY approach $85 million. Perhaps the Braves can manage that, but certainly not the Marlins. Your "estimated $63-65 Million payroll" figure is laughable. If you wish to use that as the corner piece of your argument, you will have to provide specifics.

 

I'm not arguing that the $49 million we have to work with CAN'T accommodate Vladimir Guerrero. That is certainly possible. What I take exception to is your assertion that we can keep together a competitive 1-8, starting rotation, bullpen, bench, AND sign Vladimir Guerrero. At some point you must concede that, in order to sign Guerrero, the Marlins must sacrifice some of their best players. It is not possible for us to keep our entire starting rotation, our entire bullpen, Mike Lowell, Luis Castillo, AND sign Vladimir Guerrero. If you want your argument to have any credibility, you ought to be realistic.

 

As for G, some people may say that giving one guy a big contract restricts you from signing your other big name, impact guys. Well, wrong again. Derrek Lee will most likely be traded/non-tendered anyway, freeing up a good $5 Million there. Rodriguez walks, but his price tag stays the same due to deffered payments. You trade/non-tender Encarnacion, and you free up another $5 Million. You now have $10 Million right there. With a little snippet of Braden Looper, you free up $4 Million there, giving you a good solid $14 Million.

You are missing the reason WHY we are forced to slash salary here. The whole point of cutting payroll in our case is to keep next year's figure from ballooning to $90million. We don't just get rid of Lee, Enc, and Looper, freeing up "a good solid $14 Million", and then turn around and devote those same savings and then-some to signing Guerrero. We wouldn't dare free up $17 million in payroll just to spend that amount on signing Guerrero; that would defeat the purpose of avoiding next year's projected $88million mark.

 

I will make a few more comments regarding your reasons to sign Guerrero.

A) He is a latin-american player.

The fact that a player is Hispanic is NOT a reason for the Marlins to sign him. Hispanic baseball players are a dime a dozen. The vast majority of them would cost us less than $17 million. And your assertion that he will give us a "hometown discount" is completely off base. Just because the man is Hispanic does not mean that he would want to give the Miami Marlins a huge "hometown" discount. Your point is akin to saying that Shaquille O'Neal would give the Harlem Globetrotters a hometown discount since he's black.

 

B) He does not like to be under scruttiny (sp); prefers a small market team.

Guerrero's personal preferences have no bearing on whether or not it is smart for us to sign him. He has already allegedly turned down a $17 million offer to return to the Expos in 2004. Just because he might not want to be a Yankee does not mean that he wants to be a Marlin, and it certainly isn't a reason for us to sign him.

 

C) The Marlins hope to be getting a new stadium, and signing a player of his caliber could definately help that along.

The Marlins have already secured all possible money from the local government. How could being in more debt because of Guerrero possibly help the Marlins to pay their portion of the stadium construction costs?

 

D)Has extreamely positive ties with Marlins current ownership/FO.

Guerrero's primary "positive tie" to the Marlins is his relationship with Marlins vice president of international relations Fred Ferreira. Ferreira was the scout who initially signed him. Ferreira is also heavily anticipated to leave the Marlins during this offseason, and it is believed that he will go to the Mets.

 

 

E) Teams will be reluctant to hand out $15 Million a year to anyone these days.

Your most counterproductive point. If many teams don't want to pay $15 million a year to anyone, a team that is forced to get rid of so many of its star players in the name of payroll should be the LAST team to even consider tacking on another $15 million. Be realistic! Do you want a Texas Rangers situation all over again?

 

F) Can help sell tickets

This point is particularly weak. Pudge Rodriguez has been baseball's premier catcher over a career that rivals the entire Marlins organization in age. Yes, he was seen as very well received by Miami's huge Puerto Rican community. There is no question that Vladimir Guerrero, a Dominican, should help sell some tickets in markets like South Florida and the northeast. The question is, would those ticket sales help justify his gargantuan salary? It's pretty clear that fans in South Florida like to see a winner. Pudge did little for ticket sales over the course of the regular season. Don't you think we would sell more tickets if our team was winning?

 

G) Gives the team the best chance to win.

I think I've explained pretty thoroughly that we must sacrifice A LOT just to pick up Guerrero's offensive contributions. Our 5 starting pitchers last year made less than half of what Guerrero will make in 2004. Do you really want to lose Castillo, Lowell, and several pitchers to pick up one Vladimir Guerrero (who, by the way, isn't guaranteed to hit 40 home runs in a pitchers' park)? Do you really think we'll win more games that way?

 

 

I have one important question for you, Wildcard:

 

Your 1-8 lineup of Pierre, Castillo, Guerrero, Lowell, Cabrera, Conine, Castro, and Gonzalez is an excellent one and should keep the team offensively viable. Using the figures from the "projected payroll 2004" column in Ramp's spreadsheet, the total for those eight players is $41.5 million (the number is approximately the same if you use Gammons' figures.). Given that the Marlins have 60 ? 8 ? 3 = $49 million in player salaries to work with for 2004, how would you spend the remaining $7.5 million on the rotation, bullpen, and bench? Please list specifics, including which pitchers you would keep, which you would cut, and how much they would be paid. (If it's too difficult, you can try crunching the numbers with an available $10 million instead of $7.5 million.)

I'm done.

 

I myself am completely against getting Vlad, and I agree with every word Alkazoid just said. I just can't argue against any of that.

 

Next...

ah come on, that's no fun. at least put up a rebuttal.

 

i don't think you need to convince anybody that we should get vlad; rather, all you need to do is put up a good, sound argument

i don't think you need to convince anybody that we should get vlad; rather, all you need to do is put up a good, sound argument

I know that's all I need to do, but I don't think it's possible at this point. I'm just not behind it.

 

It's a useless arguement. Lost cause.

and people said my topics and DT's matching were bad, at least our efforts had some reasonable arguments. For the record, this was not one of my topics.

i'll sub for ya WC... :shifty

Go right ahead.

 

I'm sorry, but I'd rather forfeit than waste my time writing meanlingless drivel, and waste all your time reading it.

 

Maybe a few writers at the Herald should follow my example.

and people said my topics and DT's matching were bad, at least our efforts had some reasonable arguments. For the record, this was not one of my topics.

 

Well if your the one who made the space coast stadium debate, then well your topics arent too good

 

And no its not me being a sore loser, Bigg Hugg and many others agreed with me that the topic was dumb.

and people said my topics and DT's matching were bad, at least our efforts had some reasonable arguments. For the record, this was not one of my topics.

um.....

 

 

this topic would be great if one of the debaters would put up any type of real arguement.

 

 

for every 1 person in favor of that space coast stadium topic there were 50 who said it sucked.

 

 

yes Cape, your topics are platinum.

LOOK HERE PEOPLE.....

 

 

I HAVE WARNED PEOPLE BEFORE, LET ME MAKE ONE FINAL WARNING.

 

 

IF YOU ARE NOT A JUDGE OR DEBATOR DO NOT POST UNTIL AFTER THE DEBATES ARE DONE....NO MATTER WHAT.

 

 

IF YOU DO FEEL THE NEED TO POST.....THEN I WILL FEEL THE NEED TO SUSPEND YOUR ACCOUNT FOR SOME PERIOD OF TIME.

 

 

thank you.

Go right ahead.

 

I'm sorry, but I'd rather forfeit than waste my time writing meanlingless drivel, and waste all your time reading it.

 

Maybe a few writers at the Herald should follow my example.

Shut up Josh...

 

Go Cry or whatever the hell you want to but you didn't need to take a spot in the debates. Instead you took a spot from someone and then when you didn't get your way you quit.

Shut up Josh...

 

Go Cry or whatever the hell you want to but you didn't need to take a spot in the debates. Instead you took a spot from someone and then when you didn't get your way you quit.

Shut up Rune...

 

I took up a spot, and I won my way into the second round. I don't feel that it is right to try and defend something I'm not behind. I did it in the first round because I thought it could be done, but IMO it's just rediculous to get Vlad Guerrero, and I don't want to debate against something I agree on.

 

Look, I don't want to sit here and write mindless crap for the hell of it. It would be wasting your time and mine.

i debated against something i didnt believe in

 

so what

 

GROW A PAIR

Josh for the record......

 

 

 

Are you even aware of how debates really work?

i debated against something i didnt believe in

And lost. I knew I was going to lose this debate directly after I read his response to my post. I can't argue against that.

 

I'm sorry for wasting everyones time with this, but I could have wasted even more time by responding.

Hotcorner, feel free to pick up the argument.

For those who say my previous topic was dumb, I admit it was. But it was something you could easily find facts and on, quickly form an opinion/argument and debate on right? It was also something that wouldn't tear everyone apart. The topics are put in as suggestions and the powers of the board are the ones who select and match them. I just made a suggestion, TD said who should debate and they were matched.

 

Sorry if it stunk, but that tells you how quickly the well of ideas ran out for some that I had to come forth with topics.

alkazoid is the winner.

 

Anyone may now reply to this topic.

Wow this one sucked, Wild Card you shouldn't have given up so easily, I find many of these salvos entertaining. Oh well hopefully the judges pick a better topic next time. :unsure :