Choi.vs.Conine-spring training,its that simple.

If we get an All Star or Veteran OF via trade or FA. Then Choi is expected to spent 2004 on AAA or Conine would be traded.

 

Conine won't be platooning or riding the pine for 3 mill. We aren't the Yankees. I know we're better than the yankees. On that point, I agree with you 100%

Choi.vs.Conine-spring training,its that simple.

That is only if Beinfest was stupid enough to give Vlad 20% of the team's available payroll.

forget about Vlad already!

forget about Vlad already!

did he sign yet? NO

 

anyway, i just dont see Choi sitting in AAA for another 2 years....

Alkazoid, you arent making an effort to see ANYONE's point but your own. Ramp has posted his theoretical payroll to get Vlad. Pretty much everyone has had some version which consisted of shipping off Lee, Castillo, Pudge, Redman, Enc - or some version whereby a couple of them are let go. This is done to free up money and grant us flexibility in order to sign Vlad.

 

That said, I have not been one of the biggest believers in that we are signing Vlad. I have been, however, one of the biggest believers in that we COULD sign Vlad. It is not beyond the realm of possiblity, which is what you propose. We have the payroll flexibility needed to work out a deal for him, and we have a market that could support our needs in filling in for departing players (like the list mentioned above). We even have the players to step in available on our own roster:

Castro for Pudge

Hooper/Medrano/Valdez or FA for Castillo

Choi/Conine for Lee

Burnett/Spot starter (Wayne? FA?) for Redman

Vlad (of course) for Enc

 

Again, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the Marlins could sign Vlad. Is it likely, probably not - but even that I am hesitant to say because of what happened last year with Pudge. And a Wild Card birth after being 10 games below .500. And us winning the World Series - over the Yankees. And McKeon being Manager of the Year. And Dontrelle Willis becoming ROY...

We would be a better team without vlad...

Alkazoid, you arent making an effort to see ANYONE's point but your own.? Ramp has posted his theoretical payroll to get Vlad.? Pretty much everyone has had some version which consisted of shipping off Lee, Castillo, Pudge, Redman, Enc - or some version whereby a couple of them are let go.? This is done to free up money and grant us flexibility in order to sign Vlad.?

 

That said, I have not been one of the biggest believers in that we are signing Vlad.? I have been, however, one of the biggest believers in that we COULD sign Vlad.? It is not beyond the realm of possiblity, which is what you propose.? We have the payroll flexibility needed to work out a deal for him, and we have a market that could support our needs in filling in for departing players (like the list mentioned above).? We even have the players to step in available on our own roster:

Castro for Pudge

Hooper/Medrano/Valdez or FA for Castillo

Choi/Conine for Lee

Burnett/Spot starter (Wayne? FA?) for Redman

Vlad (of course) for Enc

 

Again, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the Marlins could sign Vlad.? Is it likely, probably not - but even that I am hesitant to say because of what happened last year with Pudge.? And a Wild Card birth after being 10 games below .500.? And us winning the World Series - over the Yankees.? And McKeon being Manager of the Year.? And Dontrelle Willis becoming ROY...

jonnylons: you must be the most obstinate person i've encountered on this entire board. you were probably in my top 3 on another board i used to lurk on.

 

NO s*** we could afford vlad if we made a whole slew of additional cuts. i don't know who you could possibly find to argue such an obvious point with. my whole argument is that it's not prudent to make those cuts because you'd gut the entire core of the team.

 

judging from your brilliant posts, it's obvious you haven't made the slightest effort to see anyone's point of view other than your own vision of vlad, since you continue to spew the same ol' without breaking down the numbers.

 

ramp's theoretical payroll is not an accurate measure of the cuts we'll have to make, and if you can't accept that, you'll have to pardon me for laughing at your call for objectivity here. if you're going to use that as the basis for your argument, i'll stop here. as much as i'd love to outline why those examples aren't realistic, i'd rather just refer you to my post in http://www.marlinbaseball.com/forums/index...showtopic=10168 . it's post #3.

 

if you can break down a roster with realistic figures that can fit vlad in a payroll of $49 million AND you can do it without gutting the team, i'll applaud you. until then, i'll continue to call your vision imprudent and unrealistic.

 

i'll leave it at that. if you really want to continue with this argument, i ask that you read that post #3 before you post. otherwise, i'll continue to believe your viewpoint is "imprudent and unrealistic" and ask that you to be less closeminded before you accuse others of having this same quality.

ramp's theoretical payroll is not an accurate measure of the cuts we'll have to make

could you go into more detail

 

if you dont mind

ramp's theoretical payroll is not an accurate measure of the cuts we'll have to make

could you go into more detail

 

if you dont mind Lowell will get more than $7 million. Castillo will get more than $4 million. Vlad will get more than $13 million and Looper will get more than $2.5 million. I'm guessing each will get at least $1 million more than in your projected payroll.

ramp's theoretical payroll is not an accurate measure of the cuts we'll have to make

could you go into more detail

 

if you dont mindfran's post notes a number of reasons why i didn't think that payroll was realistic. i had no problem with it because you never claimed it was a realistic solution for fitting vlad.

 

basically, i thought it was a "wishful thinking" scenario with every player earning far less than he should. the last column on the right didn't have realistic salaries for the players. it was also missing a 5th SP for most of the season.

 

a number of accurate salary numbers are here: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/sfl-mar...la-sports-front , although your spreadsheet actually had a column with more realistic figures.

 

i'm really just waiting for someone to post a lineup with realistic figures that fits the $49 million total, so everyone can see just how much we have to sacrifice to fit vlad. it would look a lot more like the AAA texas rangers + a-rod.

Alkazoid, you arent making an effort to see ANYONE's point but your own. Ramp has posted his theoretical payroll to get Vlad. Pretty much everyone has had some version which consisted of shipping off Lee, Castillo, Pudge, Redman, Enc - or some version whereby a couple of them are let go. This is done to free up money and grant us flexibility in order to sign Vlad.

 

That said, I have not been one of the biggest believers in that we are signing Vlad. I have been, however, one of the biggest believers in that we COULD sign Vlad. It is not beyond the realm of possiblity, which is what you propose. We have the payroll flexibility needed to work out a deal for him, and we have a market that could support our needs in filling in for departing players (like the list mentioned above). We even have the players to step in available on our own roster:

Castro for Pudge

Hooper/Medrano/Valdez or FA for Castillo

Choi/Conine for Lee

Burnett/Spot starter (Wayne? FA?) for Redman

Vlad (of course) for Enc

 

Again, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the Marlins could sign Vlad. Is it likely, probably not - but even that I am hesitant to say because of what happened last year with Pudge. And a Wild Card birth after being 10 games below .500. And us winning the World Series - over the Yankees. And McKeon being Manager of the Year. And Dontrelle Willis becoming ROY...

jonnylons: you must be the most obstinate person i've encountered on this entire board. you were probably in my top 3 on another board i used to lurk on.

 

NO s*** we could afford vlad if we made a whole slew of additional cuts. i don't know who you could possibly find to argue such an obvious point with. my whole argument is that it's not prudent to make those cuts because you'd gut the entire core of the team.

 

judging from your brilliant posts, it's obvious you haven't made the slightest effort to see anyone's point of view other than your own vision of vlad, since you continue to spew the same ol' without breaking down the numbers.

 

ramp's theoretical payroll is not an accurate measure of the cuts we'll have to make, and if you can't accept that, you'll have to pardon me for laughing at your call for objectivity here. if you're going to use that as the basis for your argument, i'll stop here. as much as i'd love to outline why those examples aren't realistic, i'd rather just refer you to my post in http://www.marlinbaseball.com/forums/index...showtopic=10168 . it's post #3.

 

if you can break down a roster with realistic figures that can fit vlad in a payroll of $49 million AND you can do it without gutting the team, i'll applaud you. until then, i'll continue to call your vision imprudent and unrealistic.

 

i'll leave it at that. if you really want to continue with this argument, i ask that you read that post #3 before you post. otherwise, i'll continue to believe your viewpoint is "imprudent and unrealistic" and ask that you to be less closeminded before you accuse others of having this same quality.

If by obstinate you mean 'difficult to control', then yes, I suppose I am for you. But here is my response - stay with me here:

 

Here is the original post (by Hotcorner):

According to my expert figures, I think this saves enough $$ for the Marlins to keep everyone else.

 

They could even up Pudge's offer to 7 million per year.

and raise Castillo's offer to 6 million per. Not saying they'd accept the deals, but they'd be more attractive certainly.

 

Hampton 8,000,000

Pudge 10,000,000

Juan Pierre 2,300,000

Castillo 6,000,000

Hee Sop Choi 350,000

Mike Lowell 7,000,000

 

Alex Gonzalez 2,500,000

Miguel Cabrera 300,000

Jeff Conine 3,000,000

AJ Burnett 2,500,000

Mark Redman 3,000,000

Brad Penny 3,000,000

Josh Beckett 2,100,000

Carl Pavano 2,500,000

Dontrelle Willis 375,000

Braden Looper 3,000,000

Chad Fox 500,000

Spoonybarger 300,000

Tommy Phelps 300,000

Nate Bump 300,000

Michael Tejera 300,000

Mike Redmond 1,100,000

Todd Hollandsworth 1,000,000

Mike Mordecai 300,000

Bench IF 500,000

Brian Banks 300,000

Bench OF 500,000

 

Total 61,325,000

 

 

Just some estimates, & there's still a few holes to fill. Plus they can obviously replace Hollandsworth, Redmond, etc, if they choose.

 

Correct me if you think I'm wrong on these numbers.... maybe I'm mistaken.

I'm not saying they should stick with this list, just saying they have the resources to do it if they want to.

Here is my response:

Ok, I see now. Pudge's salary this year would be $7M + $3M deferred = total $10M. Castillo is making $6M = total $16M. Call me crazy, but I think we would be better off by putting Castro in there (yes, he has to be found innocent) at roughly 300-400K. Then you let Redmond go and replace him with a cheaper backup, around 300-500K. Next, replace Castillo with minor leaguer/FA/prospect. That could be anywhere from 300K-$2M. Then, sign Vlad at about $10M this year, and increase it over the next several years (3 years total?) to get him what he wants financially. It would look something like this:

 

Pudge 10,000,000

Castillo 6,000,000

Redmd 1,100,000

total 17,100,000

 

Castro 400,000

bckup 500,000

2B 2,000,000

Vlad 10,000,000

total 12,900,000

 

Still save about $4M AND get, in my opinion, a better team. Vlad is easily the best hitter on this team - put him in the middle of the lineup. Castro could replace Pudge - and even improve in some categories of offense (more power). Find a capable backup, and there are plenty around, for catcher; could even retain Redmond if you chose. There are plenty of options for 2B out there that wont hurt our team either - trade for Roberts (O's), sign Reese, Young, or even work a deal out for Alomar (which I DONT suggest), or possibly go with Medrano/Hooper/Valdez(?). Either way, there is actually a lot of flexibility and this could get done. Remember, that is maximum figures I proposed above, and you could even use the extra money to increase Vlad's pay.

 

Another thought:

You could even trade Redman and sign a spot starter for the meantime or bring someone up out of ST (Wayne? Doubt it...but possible). That would save us even more money and not kill this team. So far:

 

Pudge

Castillo

Lee

Encarnacion

Redman (?)

all gone

 

None would be irreplaceable, in fact, I would think the only one that makes baseball sense to keep is Lee. Everyone else we could find a replacement for.

 

Then some objections:

 

Farmer Fran:

why the obssesion with Vlad? The last move basicaly set the table for keeping the OF as Status Quo (Conine, Pierre, Cabrera). Unless we decide to go ahead and trade Lowell.

 

 

Why change a proven winning combination? With all those moves you suggest, it is pretty much a brand new team.

 

FreshFish:

That's what I've been saying for the past month. Keep this team together. We didn't win with high priced superstars. We won with pitching and defense.

 

Let's just say we sign Vlad to a 6 year $15 million contract. What are we going to do when our staff is due to get the big bucks, because you know they will, they're that good. With Vlad's huge contract on our payroll our chance of signing them is slim to none. Keep the team together, we know it's capable of winning, why risk our future with Vlad?

And my response:

We are not going to sign Vlad to a 6 year deal @ $15M per. We dont believe in long term deals like that - look around at this roster. No one is signed past 2005. 3 years tops per player I think. Vlad will get the same - if he gets a deal it will be deferred anticipating a stadium is built.

 

We deal all those guys I mentioned away because we have capable replacements to step in for cheaper. So if this teams philosophy is winning with pitching and defense, tell me how my proposal effects that? If you are as astute as you believe, you would notice that it only increases our resources of keeping the core of this team together - Beckett, Burnett, Penny, Willis, Cabrera and Lowell.

1% chance Vlad will sign with the Fish.Acquiring Choi made Fish future plans more obvious.Choi will be 1b and Conine will play OF.

1% chance Vlad will sign with the Fish.Acquiring Choi made Fish future plans more obvious.Choi will be 1b and Conine will play OF.

alright, fine. i'll concede you 1%, jonny.

In response to my previous post, there are some modifications:

 

You would let go:

Pudge save $7M (not $10M)

Castillo $6M

Redmond $1.1M

Redman $3M

Enc (non-tender/trade, already accounted for)

Savings = $17.1M

 

Replace with:

Castro $.4M

2B (FA/Prospect) $2M

Backup $.5M

Spot Starter/Prospect/FA $1M

Vlad $13M

Total = $16.9M

 

I corrected Pudge's totals (accounting for the deferred) and raised Vlad's yearly pay up $3M. Still saving about 200K and that is projecting the replacements at maximum spending. May save another $1M if worked out right. And we still meet our payroll requirement - or at least HotCorner's projection. Let me know what you think...

1% chance Vlad will sign with the Fish.Acquiring Choi made Fish future plans more obvious.Choi will be 1b and Conine will play OF.

alright, fine. i'll concede you 1%, jonny. Umm...minus said that, not me, alky.

1% chance Vlad will sign with the Fish.Acquiring Choi made Fish future plans more obvious.Choi will be 1b and Conine will play OF.

alright, fine. i'll concede you 1%, jonny. Umm...minus said that, not me, alky. you think? :o

 

In response to my previous post, there are some modifications:

 

You would let go:

Pudge save $7M (not $10M)

Castillo $6M

Redmond $1.1M

Redman $3M

Enc (non-tender/trade, already accounted for)

Savings = $17.1M

 

Replace with:

Castro $.4M

2B (FA/Prospect) $2M

Backup $.5M

Spot Starter/Prospect/FA $1M

Vlad $13M

Total = $16.9M

 

I corrected Pudge's totals (accounting for the deferred) and raised Vlad's yearly pay up $3M.? Still saving about 200K and that is projecting the replacements at maximum spending.? May save another $1M if worked out right.? And we still meet our payroll requirement - or at least HotCorner's projection.? Let me know what you think...

So what the point of you dream numbers if the team already said they are close to resigning Lowell and Castillo.I can't stop you from dreaming so dream about your Vlad Fantasy ..

In response to my previous post, there are some modifications:

 

You would let go:

Pudge save $7M (not $10M)

Castillo $6M

Redmond $1.1M

Redman $3M

Enc (non-tender/trade, already accounted for)

Savings = $17.1M

 

Replace with:

Castro $.4M

2B (FA/Prospect) $2M

Backup $.5M

Spot Starter/Prospect/FA $1M

Vlad $13M

Total = $16.9M

 

I corrected Pudge's totals (accounting for the deferred) and raised Vlad's yearly pay up $3M. Still saving about 200K and that is projecting the replacements at maximum spending. May save another $1M if worked out right. And we still meet our payroll requirement - or at least HotCorner's projection. Let me know what you think...

the "savings" = "replace with" argument is so severely flawed because you're forgetting that a number of players would have to be cut just to hit $49mil--WITHOUT vlad. the takeaway/giveaway doesn't account for the big picture.

 

if you can post a roster with realistic salaries then i'll tell you what i think. but right now you're just regurgitating ramp's worksheet but this time claiming it hits our payroll mark.

Vlad will not sign for less than 5 years.

Vlad will not sign for less than 5 years.

arguable

In response to my previous post, there are some modifications:

 

You would let go:

Pudge save $7M (not $10M)

Castillo $6M

Redmond $1.1M

Redman $3M

Enc (non-tender/trade, already accounted for)

Savings = $17.1M

 

Replace with:

Castro $.4M

2B (FA/Prospect) $2M

Backup $.5M

Spot Starter/Prospect/FA $1M

Vlad $13M

Total = $16.9M

 

I corrected Pudge's totals (accounting for the deferred) and raised Vlad's yearly pay up $3M.? Still saving about 200K and that is projecting the replacements at maximum spending.? May save another $1M if worked out right.? And we still meet our payroll requirement - or at least HotCorner's projection.? Let me know what you think...

the "savings" = "replace with" argument is so severely flawed because you're forgetting that a number of players would have to be cut just to hit $49mil--WITHOUT vlad. the takeaway/giveaway doesn't account for the big picture.

 

if you can post a roster with realistic salaries then i'll tell you what i think. but right now you're just regurgitating ramp's worksheet but this time claiming it hits our payroll mark. Allright, here we go:

 

Hampton 8,000,000

Pudge 3,000,000

Juan Pierre 2,300,000

2B (replacement for Castillo) 2,000,000*

Hee Sop Choi 350,000

Mike Lowell 7,000,000

Alex Gonzalez 2,500,000

Miguel Cabrera 300,000

Jeff Conine 3,000,000

 

AJ Burnett 2,500,000

Spot starter (for Mark Redman) 1,000,000

Brad Penny 3,000,000

Josh Beckett 2,100,000

Carl Pavano 2,500,000

Dontrelle Willis 375,000

Braden Looper?

Chad Fox 1,000,000

Spoonybarger 300,000

Tommy Phelps 300,000

Nate Bump 300,000

Michael Tejera 300,000

Backup C (for Mike Redmond) 500,000

Mike Mordecai 300,000

Bench IF 500,000

Brian Banks 300,000

Bench OF 500,000

 

Total 44,225,000

 

Savings $15,775,000

 

Of this, you have to squeeze Looper - if you want him - or find a cheaper replacement. The 2B replacement does not have to reach $2M, could be lower, but could save another $1-1.5 at most.

 

Signing Vlad @ $10M - 13M could be worked out, defer money over the next 2-3 years with a stipulation around the stadium deal (if done, 2005).

 

This would hit $60M on the mark. There is no telling whether or not if this is a hard and fast cap or if Loria frees up some extra money to get extras. Either way, you have to lose Pudge, Castillo, Enc, Redman, Redmond to make this happen. Now, you will probably want to argue what the core of this team is...

jonnylons: Thank you for posting that payroll. I appreciate it. For the most part, you're only over by about $5M, but it's the most realistic example I've seen so far, so I'll comment on it below.

 

Now I'll make a few modifications and total it up. Most of the more realistic figures i'm using are from http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/sfl-mar...la-sports-front although the numbers in ramp's spreadsheet are about the same, too.

 

Also, since the objective here is to make a realistic payroll for Vlad rather than a "wishful thinking" one, we have to account for the fact that the 4 yr-62.75 mil offer by the angels is less than what he will actually be making. Also, in all likelihood, Vlad's contract will not be for less than five years. Backloading payroll by deferring a lot of salary might sound reasonable, but it begs the questions "how many cuts will we make in 2005?," "how many more in 2006?" "then in 2007?" "in 2008?" and so on. David Samson projects that we will begin playing in our new park in 2007, which is probably an optimistic estimate, but I'll use it anyways.

 

here is your payroll with a few modifications (pay raises, arbitration, castro, conine) to make it more realistic:

 

Pudge Rodriguez 3,000,000

Mike Hampton 8,000,000

Total deferred payments 11,000,000

 

Ramon Castro 375,000

Juan Pierre 2,300,000

2B replacement 2,000,000

Hee Seop Choi 350,000

Mike Lowell 8,000,000

Vlad Guerrero 15,000,000

Alex Gonzalez 3,100,000

Miguel Cabrera 400,000

Jeff Conine 3,000,000 - goes

Total position players 34,525,000

 

AJ Burnett 3,000,000

Starter spot 1,000,000

Brad Penny 3,000,000

Josh Beckett 2,300,000

Carl Pavano 2,500,000

Dontrelle Willis 375,000

Total SP 12,175,000

 

Braden Looper 3,000,000 - goes

Chad Fox 1,000,000

Tim Spooneybarger 350,000

Tommy Phelps 305,000

Nate Bump 300,000

Michael Tejera 400,000

Total bullpen 5,355,000

 

Backup C 500,000

Mike Mordecai 500,000

Bench IF 500,000

Brian Banks 375,000

Bench OF 500,000

Total bench 2,375,000

 

Total 1: 65,430,000

 

 

subtract Conine

Total 2: 62,430,000

 

 

subtract Looper and add cheap replacement for $500,000

Total 3: 59,930,000

 

With deferred money, this roster would be even worse in 2005, 2006, etc.

 

You'd have to get rid of contracted Jeff Conine somehow to accommodate the addition of another position player (Vlad). You could move him to the bench, but $3M is too much for a bench player, so I'll assume we managed to dump him.

 

I also cut Looper and added a cheap replacement closer for $500,000. If you'd prefer, you can knock off Penny and find a really cheap replacement starter.

 

In the end, this is more or less the sort of team we'd have in 2004 if we were to accommodate Vlad and hit our payroll mark.

 

That bullpen would probably be the worst in the league. Our best reliever would be Fox, and our closer would probably be pretty bad. The bench would also be the worst in the league. Also, finding random $300,000-$500,000 replacements for all those positions is not exactly easy and we'd probably have to rely heavily on minor leaguers (like the Rangers). Calling the Marlins a AAA team + Vlad might not be entirely accurate, but the team would be pretty bad nonetheless.

 

From last year, we would've lost Pudge, Castillo, Lee, Enc, Conine, Redman, Hollandsworth, Urbina, Looper, Redmond, and a few more bench/relief, and we'd be replacing them with Choi, Vlad, and a slew of cheap replacement players and/or minor leaguers. Obviously most of these cuts were already necessary, but you must admit that a number of these moves (castillo, conine, redman, looper, redmond) were done just to accommodate Vlad.

 

The $15M figure for Vlad assumes that some of his contract ($17M/yr?) is backloaded in the subsequent years of his contract. That means we'd lose more players in 2005, even more in 2006, and so on, while replacing them with cheap replacements. If you'd rather backload more of his contract, the team won't be as bad in 2004, but it'll be even worse in subsequent years. You'd just be delaying the inevitable to a higher degree.

 

Also note that if we move into the new ballpark in 2007 as Samson projects, the revenues from that season won't be available for payroll until the 2008 season.

 

One more note about deferred salaries: they work when you're making a championship run (see: Pudge, who deferred his one $10M season over 4 years), but it's an entirely different matter to defer money on a long-term contract. We are not making a championship run in 2004, so what is the point in breaking the bank for future years just so the team won't suck as badly in 2004? You realize we won't move into a new stadium until 2007, so the revenues won't be physically available for payroll until 2008.

 

In the end, I think there's a reason why most people (including you) can agree the Marlins won't go for Vlad. But I appreciate you posting the breakdown. After some modifications, now it's pretty clear what we'd lose to accommodate Guerrero.

also off the subject of the fish, it appear Sexson is on his way to LA...LoDuca???

 

Not gonna happen. The Dodgers are a pretty stupid organization, but they're not that dumb. Sexson's going to the D-Backs for prospects.

All this talk about Vlad coming to the Marlins is idiotic. If they could afford Vlad, then they could afford to keep Ivan here. Vlad is going to Baltimore, and everyone might as well get used to it. The Orioles are the only team that has the cayshe to sign him. The only teams that could really afford to sign the guy are: Baltimore, LA, and the Yankees; and LA already has Shawn Green in RF, while the Yanks are leaning toward signing Sheffield for less.