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9/11 Post GameS Thread


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2 hours ago, Photo-Realistic Billy said:

But that's the thing. The Marlins can easily win this trade analytically too. If all three of those guys average 3 WAR per year (i.e. play like above average starting position players; on the level of Willy Adames or Victor Robles) from 2021 through 2023 (the final year of team control for Brinson), they will have amassed 36 WAR, at 9 WAR per year.

Even with 15.9 WAR already in the bank, it will be very hard for Yelich to amass 36 WAR since being traded (an additional 20 WAR) before going into decline -- especially if we cut him off at 2022 (i.e. two more seasons), when his original contract was set to expire.

Expecially -- EXXXPECCIALLLYYY -- if the Brewers go into a franchise slump and the Marlins rebuild continues successfully, folks are going to be laughing at the Brewers (and denying they ever made fun of the Marlins) for this trade. They're paying that fella $26M in his age-36 season.

Wouldn't 2021-2023 be 3 years, so 9 WAR per year would be 27 WAR?

Also, it's very hard for me to imagine Monte Harrison being anywhere near a 3 WAR player next year.

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2 hours ago, SonOfJack said:

I started to doubt Brinson would ever provide any value, but nobody would be happier than me to be wrong. Loving his production lately. 

One of the reasons why is sucks so much that he struggled was that he is an easy guy to root for. 

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1 hour ago, mystikol87 said:

Wouldn't 2021-2023 be 3 years, so 9 WAR per year would be 27 WAR?

Also, it's very hard for me to imagine Monte Harrison being anywhere near a 3 WAR player next year.

Oh, quite right. I was initially looking at 2024 on account of the additional years of control for Harrison and Diaz. But even 27 WAR means Yelich would need to amass 11 WAR in the next two years. That ain't easy. And then the finance component puts it back in the Marlins favor.

And yes, while it may be hard to envision Harrison at present as a 3 WAR player, I encourage you to look into Javier Baez's rookie season. After 229 PA (which Harrison can't reach in the next month) and every day playing time (which Harrison won't get), Baez had a 41% K-Rate and a 54 wRC+. That ain't great.

But even before his breakout in 2018, Baez managed to put together several decent, 2.5 WAR seasons with below average offense, good defense, and great baserunning. Monte could easily follow that same path.

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