He's not really showed many signs of slowing down - you'd have thought pitchers would have adjusted to him somewhat and be getting better results but you really have to like what this guy is doing.  It's a shame that neither Ng nor Bendix had him up earlier as he's already 25 years old. 

It's too early to tell but do we think he'll end up being more valuable than Arraez was for us? X also brings the speed to the bases which is a perk as he can steal bags for you. It's a shame we never got to see a team with Xavier-Luis batting at the top of the lineup regularly as that could arguably be as good or a better combo than JP and Castillo were. 

Anyway, in a season of misery you really have to like what we've seen from him in particular. He can work a count and actually take a WALK, he gets loads of hits, he steals bags with a good success rate.  So i fully expect our hitting coaches to work with him in the offseason and tweak his swing for "M0Re p0wER" and totally wreck his game by start of next season. 

Eh, he has a .410 BABIP and a 51.9 percent ground ball rate. Obviously his ridiculous speed helps him leg out some of those ground balls into base hits, so he'll probably always be a high BABIP guy, but a regression is probably coming.

Don't get me wrong: I like him a lot, and he could end up being someone who steals 50 bases a year, but I think it's way too early for this. His walk rate is definitely encouraging, though.

1 hour ago, Valid said:

Eh, he has a .410 BABIP and a 51.9 percent ground ball rate. Obviously his ridiculous speed helps him leg out some of those ground balls into base hits, so he'll probably always be a high BABIP guy, but a regression is probably coming.

Don't get me wrong: I like him a lot, and he could end up being someone who steals 50 bases a year, but I think it's way too early for this. His walk rate is definitely encouraging, though.

If he can steal 50+ bags with an obp% north of 350 he should be a very useful guy going forward.  I'm at work and don't want to go digging up Arraez babip rate last year but if someone wants to post it I'd appreciate it and will give you an updoot.

To Valid’s point, if you drop his BABIP down to .333 (which is already really good, eg Arraez is at .338 in his career; those that are .350+ are generally HoF players) than his average would drop roughly ~60 points. This would drop is OBP roughly ~60 points and his SLG roughly ~60 points (assuming each hit lost is a single; percentages also don’t work exactly like this but just back of the napkin math) for a .120 OPS drop.

This drops his slash line down to .285/.370/.365/.735. Which is still really good with his defense and speed. To the point he might be “better” overall than Arraez if Arraez is a DH going forward. But hit tool wise I would definitely put Arraez a good level above Edwards 

I would also expect his BB% to drop too once he cools down; it’s very hard for players without power (especially sub-.100 ISO) to maintain a high BB% as pitchers will just attack the zone more. After all, what are you going to do, hit a single? But would also mean a lower K%, more balls in play, and more hits. Will be interesting to see how all that plays out 

12 hours ago, Nny said:

To Valid’s point, if you drop his BABIP down to .333 (which is already really good, eg Arraez is at .338 in his career; those that are .350+ are generally HoF players) than his average would drop roughly ~60 points. This would drop is OBP roughly ~60 points and his SLG roughly ~60 points (assuming each hit lost is a single; percentages also don’t work exactly like this but just back of the napkin math) for a .120 OPS drop.

This drops his slash line down to .285/.370/.365/.735. Which is still really good with his defense and speed. To the point he might be “better” overall than Arraez if Arraez is a DH going forward. But hit tool wise I would definitely put Arraez a good level above Edwards 

I would also expect his BB% to drop too once he cools down; it’s very hard for players without power (especially sub-.100 ISO) to maintain a high BB% as pitchers will just attack the zone more. After all, what are you going to do, hit a single? But would also mean a lower K%, more balls in play, and more hits. Will be interesting to see how all that plays out 

I looked up a couple leadoff hitters with little power ( Ichiro Suzuki & Luis Castillo) wether their walks went up or down and noticed that both players increased their walk rate the more they played within their prime.  I think as long as a contact hitter can steal bases (that is the key) the mentality of a pitcher is try to get a good pitch over with discretion.  However, both Suzuki & Castillo at the down turn of their careers wasn’t able to draw walks because they weren’t a threat to steal bases so yeah, pitchers of course would be more aggressive.  However, with the new rules, stealing a base is darn near automatic so in this case pitchers may factor that in unlike the days of Castillo.  So maybe now, it just becomes a question of how good is that bat of his. 

7 hours ago, Nicebeinghere said:

I looked up a couple leadoff hitters with little power ( Ichiro Suzuki & Luis Castillo) wether their walks went up or down and noticed that both players increased their walk rate the more they played within their prime.  I think as long as a contact hitter can steal bases (that is the key) the mentality of a pitcher is try to get a good pitch over with discretion.  However, both Suzuki & Castillo at the down turn of their careers wasn’t able to draw walks because they weren’t a threat to steal bases so yeah, pitchers of course would be more aggressive.  However, with the new rules, stealing a base is darn near automatic so in this case pitchers may factor that in unlike the days of Castillo.  So maybe now, it just becomes a question of how good is that bat of his. 

The walks are still the most encouraging signs imo as it's also not like he has any protection in that lineup so pitchers can be as aggressive as they want and he's still getting his walks and hits.

9 hours ago, hovertical said:

The walks are still the most encouraging signs imo as it's also not like he has any protection in that lineup so pitchers can be as aggressive as they want and he's still getting his walks and hits.

The signs are encouraging.  Generally, I think you must establish contact first, then the walks can come.  The hard part is being able to draw those walks when it’s time like you said. Edwards thus far is handling that well.  Obviously, players who don’t strike out often and can draw walks will be far more consistent (less slumps) and their hits & walks each year go up because you can’t pitch around or go through them.   I don’t disagree that a better lineup doesn’t help, but Ichiro & Castillo players of that nature will always produce.  Adrián González at petco park with no help had these numbers in a 5 yr stretch on average HR 34/ RBI 105/ BB 90.  That’s crazy in to my point if a you can draw walks and hit for contact, most pitchers or lineups don’t really matter. 
 

Edited August 21, 20241 yr by Nicebeinghere

He's a Daddy Dix piece from the Rays organization, hell yes he's better than anyone