Here it is:

 

Braves' long reign could be over

 

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By Peter Gammons

Special to ESPN.com

 

 

Feb. 8

 

 

The last time the Braves didn't finish first, Joss Stone was 3, Miguel Cabrera just 7, and Michelle Wie hadn't celebrated her first birthday. Harold Reynolds won the Gold Glove. Theo Epstein was a high school junior, Dan Quayle was the vice president. The Marlins were only an idea, and while detractors would point out that since then Florida has won twice as many world championships as Atlanta, the run has been unprecedented. So long that it's given Barry Bonds time to hit 541 home runs and Greg Maddux to win 228 games.

 

 

A tight budget has forced GM John Schuerholz to drastically reshape the Braves.

 

 

 

John Schuerholz's standard line this winter has been, "having 100-win teams doesn't seem to be getting us too far in the postseason these days -- so this year we're trying to put together a wild-card team." Point made. The last two world champions have been the wild card, the Marlins have won both their rings after finishing well behind the Braves.

 

 

Oh, there have been challenges through the years. The Giants won 103 games and took them down to the last day in Barry Bonds' first year in San Francisco, 1993, back when the Braves were in the West. The Mets made runs a couple of years, and, of course, the Expos would have beaten them in '94, only the season never ended and by the time the strike was over the next spring, 20 percent of the team was gone.

 

 

Now, for the first time since 1990, the year they drafted Chipper Jones instead of Todd Van Poppel, the Braves are not only seriously challenged, they go into spring training considered the likely runner-up to the Phillies. "We know we have our work cut out for us," says Schuerholz. "Some things are different [such as the necessity of cutting the payroll back to the $80 million range, with only 10 players making seven figures if Paul Byrd begins the season disabled]. We've lost some very good players who played exceptionally well for us over the years and were big parts of our success. But one thing we've been able to do through the years has been to adjust, and try to be creative in ways of restocking our team. We think we've done that again. We will field a representative team; remember, we were counted out last winter as well, and won 100 games.

 

 

"And," adds Schuerholz, "never underestimate Bobby Cox's ability to develop a team, especially young players. This season, his work with young players is going to be vitally important because how we end up may in a large part depend on youngsters like Adam LaRoche, Mark DeRosa, Johnny Estrada and some young pitchers. I have a great deal of confidence in those players developing and helping to make us a contending team." Again.

 

 

John Smoltz is the one constant from the '91 team and he's come to expect that Schuerholz will scour the flea markets to totally remake his setup staff every year. Sometimes, as was the case two years ago, he hits. Last year, just OK. This year? Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Almanza & we shall see. More important is whether the rotation of Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, Horacio Ramirez and John Thomson, who comes highly recommended by the Braves' scouts, can replicate some of their prime staffs of the past. Schuerholz does not discount Jaret Wright, who was throwing in the high 90s in September and will either be the fifth starter or a setup man.

 

 

Last year was an unusual Braves team in that the offense, not the pitching, was the heart of its 101 wins. They led the league in runs, homers and OPS. But Gary Sheffield, their best hitter, is gone along with his 132 RBI. Javy Lopez had a career year with 43 homers and is gone. Add in Robert Fick and Vinny Castilla, and those four players amounted to 115 homers and 397 RBI.

 

 

J.D. Drew is the centerpiece of Atlanta's offseason plans.

 

 

 

As always, Schuerholz thus has to be creative, only this time with $15 million less to spend on a roster that has several embedded, high-paid stars as a result of finishing first every year since the first Bush administration. The big move was to trade three pitchers for J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero. "If J.D. is healthy," says Schuerholz, "we have an All-Star player. And Marrero gives us someone who can play several positions, particularly catcher; we signed Eddie Perez just so Bobby wouldn't hold back Eli worried about Johnny Estrada getting hurt." Drew, of course, is an enigmatic player whose statute of limitations had run out in St. Louis. He's never knocked in as many as 74 runs. But he also has talent and in 2001 did hit .323 with 27 homers. The relaxed atmosphere of Atlanta may be one place Drew can come close to his draft buildup.

 

 

With no remaining money, Schuerholz has turned to his farm system. DeRosa has been a useful utility infielder and now gets his chance at third as an exceptional athlete (NFL teams were interested in the former Penn quarterback) who has worked hard to increase his strength. DeRosa has come through the farm system and had a big winter in Puerto Rico. Estrada, who was obtained in the Kevin Millwood salary move the previous winter, gets his chance.

 

 

In contrast, the Phillies have gone through their growing pains. Jimmy Rollins is now 25 and knows he cannot hit the ball in the air too often. Marlon Byrd has had a season to develop. Pat Burrell has hit rock bottom. Brett Myers now has 44 starts and 265 innings of major-league experience.

 

 

It seems that Phillies GM Ed Wade has accomplished what the Indians, Mariners and Giants accomplished (and the Tigers, Pirates and Brewers did not) -- namely, put together a potential World Series team in time to open a new ballpark. Philadelphia is potentially a great baseball town that for too long sat fourth in the city, and through trades, the farm system and the fact that the Mike Arbuckle School has developed so many good young pitchers is the reason they had the inventory to go get Billy Wagner and Eric Milton.

 

 

If, indeed, Admin Bowa's passion was an impediment to their success last season, then the leash will not be too long. But Lou Piniella's passion was once considered an impediment, and he's one of the best managers of his time, and there were a lot of major-league development issues with the Phillies that now should be outgrown.

 

 

Kevin Millwood accepted the Phillies' arbitration offer.

 

 

 

In Millwood, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, Myers and Milton, they have a solid rotation closed by Wagner. They could win without David Bell. Chase Utley is a potential 20-homer second baseman and Placido Polanco can play third. But they are better with Bell at third and Polanco playing a gold-glove level second base. They have an All-Star catcher in Mike Lieberthal. They also have the classic slugger and enthusiast in Jim Thome. ... Burrell is a big key and he is already in Clearwater trying to erase the memory of going from .282 with 37 homers to .209 with 21. He is a key because they need him between Thome and Bobby Abreu to break up the left-handed hitters.

 

 

Philadelphia is the gathering storm, but the Marlins have their second post-strike World Series ring. They also weren't the fluke some made them out to be, for while so much was made out of Jack McKeon and the little kids with speed and defense, the 2003 Marlins had a ton of talent with both the speed and defense from Juan Pierre right down the middle to Ivan Rodriguez along with the emergence of Miguel Cabrera as well as veterans like Mike Lowell and Derrek Lee. The farcical Rodriguez sweepstakes is a separate issue, and obviously Lee, Juan Encarnacion, Ugueth Urbina and Mark Redman had to be moved for payroll reasons.

 

 

But if Cabrera is, indeed, Albert Pujols II, and if Hee Seop Choi hits 20-25 homers, then the Marlins have a chance to compete because of their pitching. There are those who believe that the reason Florida has twice as many rings as the Braves in this run is because October is Power Pitching Month; the Phish had it in '97 starring Kevin Brown, and they certainly had it last October.

 

 

Granted, Josh Beckett has 17 major-league wins, but we have seen what he can do if healthy and over a season that would be a 17-20 game winner who can dominate good teams. Brad Penny and Carl Pavano grew up, and Dontrelle Willis was the catalyst to the season. If A.J. Burnett, who has the best stuff of them all and is a potential 20-game winner when healthy, takes it easy and makes it back in June, then a Beckett-Penny-Pavano-Burnett-Willis rotation can be in overdrive come September. Of course, there are the ballpark issues that could cloud things, but don't ignore good young power arms.

 

 

The Expos were in a virtual tie for the wild card before their final you-can't-go-home-again stand in San Juan, and the rest was forgettable. They lost Vladimir Guerrero. They had to trade their best pitcher, Javier Vazquez. But there is good news: 1) The playing surfaces in Montreal and San Juan have been improved, and 2) they don't play in San Juan after the All-Star break.

 

 

Omar Minaya has tried to create a deeper team by trading for Nick Johnson and Juan Rivera and signing Carl Everett and Tony Batista. Frank Robinson has managed this team through a treacherous, thin path for two years, and how far they can go with the adversity, conflicts of interest and uncertainty is to be determined.

 

 

Finally, there are the Mets. The fact that the Wilpons eschewed the sexy moves that satisfy The Back Pages is a start, because there were no Mo Vaughn-Roger Cedeno moves. They're trying to save Mike Piazza's legs by moving him to first. They're trying to build a speed-and-defense team with Mike Cameron, Kaz Matsui and Jose Reyes that can compliment -- rather than discourage -- pitchers like Tom Glavine, Al Leiter and Steve Trachsel. Are they going to finish first? No, but instead of throwing money at names and ending up deeper in debt, they are reconstructing with ideas of what they want to be.

 

 

Ideally, they'd like to be the Braves. Easier said than done. Ask Schuerholz.

 

Atlanta Braves

2003 finish: 101-61, first place by 10 games. Lost to Chicago in NLDS.

 

Offseason transactions: Traded RHPs Jason Marquis and Adam Wainwright and LH reliever Ray King to St. Louis for OF J.D. Drew and C-OF Eli Marrero. ... Signed free agents RHP John Thomson, RHP Antonio Alfonseca, LHP Armando Almanza, C Eddie Perez, OF-3B Russell Branyan. ... Lost free agents RHP Greg Maddux, 3B Vinny Castilla, C Javy Lopez, 1B Robert Fick, OF Gary Sheffield, C Henry Blanco, RHP Shane Reynolds, RH reliever Roberto Hernandez.

 

Rookies and other strangers: 1B Adam LaRoche (.290, 20 homers, Double-A, Triple-A). ... C Johnny Estrada (.328, 10, Triple-A). ... RHP Bubba Nelson (8-11, Double-A, Triple-A). ... LHP Andy Pratt (7-10, Triple-A). ... By midseason watch 3B Andy Marte (.285, 16, Class A).

 

Significant 2003 statistics: Outscored opponents by a remarkable 222 runs, and led the division in on-base (.349) and slugging (.475), the latter by 54 points. ... They hit 235 homers, 69 more than the next club; unfortunately, the players who hit 119 of those 235 homers are gone. ... Their pitching had a 4.10 ERA, but while the starters were pretty good (74-39), 27 of those wins have left. ... The bullpen was 27-22, 3.98 with 51 for 71 in save opportunities, but John Smoltz had his 45 saves. ... Defense was a problem: a division-worst 121 errors and 77 unearned runs.

 

Major spring training questions: Can Jaret Wright, Jung Bong or Bubba Nelson take the fifth spot behind Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, Horacio Ramirez and John Thomson? ... Can Alfonseca and Almanza settle down their power stuff with Leo Mazzone, and if Wright goes to the bullpen, will he be throwing 96-98 mph again? ... Is LaRoche ready after an outstanding winter? ... Can Mark DeRosa take third base regularly? ... Is Estrada ready to catch every day?

 

2004 team song: "Your Love is like Las Vegas"

 

Florida Marlins

2003 finish: 91-71, second place (-10), defeated San Francisco and Chicago in the playoffs, the Yankees to win the World Series.

 

Offseason transactions: Traded 1B Derrek Lee to the Cubs for 1B Hee Seop Choi and RHP Mike Nannini. ... Traded OF Juan Encarnacion to Los Angeles for OF Travis Ezi. ... Traded LHP Mark Redman to Oakland for RHP Mike Neu and LHP Billy Murphy. ... Re-signed free agent 2B Luis Castilla. ... Signed free agents 1B Wilfredo Cordero and LHP Darren Oliver. ... Lost free agents C Pudge Rodriguez, RHP Braden Looper, LHP Armando Almanza, OF Todd Hollandsworth, INF Andy Fox and RHP Rick Helling.

 

Rookies and other strangers: RHP Blaine Neal (3-2, 2.32, Triple-A) ... RHP Justin Wayne (4-12, Triple-A) ... INF Kevin Hooper (.266, Triple-A).

 

Significant 2003 statistics: They only outscored their opponents by 59 runs, but in the first half of the season they had several blowout losses, such as the night in Fenway Park when they allowed 14 runs in the first inning. ... They were a free-swinging (.333 OBP, .421 SLG) team in a pitchers' park and ran (150 steals, a poor 74 caught stealing). ... Their staff ERA ended up being 4.04 and while the starters (67-54, 3.91) appear average, they emerged at the end, and the bullpen that Admin Beinfest put together on the fly ended with 36 saves in 50 opportunities. ... They built the team on defense and ended up with the fewest errors in the division, 78, and the fewest unearned runs, 44.

 

Major spring training questions: How close is A.J. Burnett to being ready, and can Darren Oliver fill his spot until he's back in the rotation? Presuming, as they do, that Armando Benitez is the answer at the end now that he's in a culture in which he's more comfortable, can Chad Fox, Nate Bump, Michael Tejera, Mike Neu, et al get to him? Is Hee Seop Choi able to play every day, with occasional rest for Wilfredo Cordero?

 

2004 team song: "Evening of the Best Day of My Life"

 

Philadelphia Phillies

2003 finish: 86-76, 3rd place (-15).

 

Offseason transactions: Traded RHPs Brandon Duckworth, Taylor Buchholz and Ezequiel Astacio to Houston for LH reliever Billy Wagner. ... Traded RHP Carlos Silva, INF Nick Punto and RHP Bobby Korecky to Minnesota for LHP Eric Milton. ... Signed free agent RHPs Tim Worrell and Roberto Hernandez. ... Lost free agent RHPs Terry Adams, Mike Williams and Jose Mesa. ... LHP Dan Plesac retired.

 

Rookies and other strangers: RHP Ryan Madson (12-8, Triple-A) if there are injuries. ... LHP Bud Smith another year off surgery.

 

Significant 2003 statistics: They outscored opponents by 94 runs -- 35 more than the Marlins -- and finished five games behind Florida. ... Their .343 on-base and .419 slugging were both better than Florida, but somehow some things didn't add up, and that includes the off seasons by Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins. ... Their pitching was good enough (4.04 staff ERA) and the starters were 63-56, 4.20. ... The bullpen was inconsistent: the 23-20, 3.72 was a credit to very good handling, but the lack of a big-time closer made the 33-for-51 numbers off. ... The David Bell injury hurt the defense, which made 97 errors but allowed fewer unearned runs (49) than any team in the division save the Marlins.

 

Major spring training questions: The addition of Wagner and Milton give them one of the four best closers in the game and a solid left-handed starter -- which with Randy Wolf gives them two lefties in the rotation. They believe that 1-through-11 their pitching is set. ... So the big questions this spring are Burrell's comeback, Bell's health, the improvement Jimmy Rollins made working with Tony Gwynn and the expected improvement of both Marlon Byrd and Bobby Abreu, who can play better than he did last season. ... A lot of the attention will be focused on Admin Bowa, and he reportedly is on a short leash. But with a team that is expected to win, with the new park and enthusiasm, he deserves every opportunity to prove that it was the players, not Admin, who were responsible for the disappointment last season.

 

2004 team song: "Stairway to Heaven"

 

Montreal Expos

2003 finish: 83-79, fourth place (-18).

 

Offseason transactions: Traded RHP Javier Vazquez to the Yankees for 1B Nick Johnson, OF Juan Rivera and LHP Randy Choate. ... Lost free agent OF Vladimir Guerrero. ... Also lost free agents 1B Wilfredo Cordero, INF Todd Zeile, 3B Fernando Tatis and RHP Orlando Hernandez. ... Signed free agents OF Carl Everett, 3B Tony Batista and C Greg Zaun. ... Traded Michael Barrett to Oakland. ... Traded LHP Scott Stewart to Cleveland for OF Ryan Church and INF Maicer Isturiz.

 

Rookies and other strangers: OF Terrmel Sledge (.324, 22, 92, Triple-A). ... RH reliever Chad Cordero (1-0, 2.05, Class A after being No. 1 pick in June). ... LHP Chad Bentz (1-4, 2.55, 16 saves, Double-A) -- a good story in that, similar to Jim Abbott, a birth deformity cost him the use of his right hand. He throws and fields with his left hand and is a very good prospect. ... OF Valentino Pascucci (.281, 15, Triple-A). ... OF Matt Cepicky (.301, 7, Triple-A). ... RHP Seung Song (12-4, Double-A, Triple-A).

 

Significant 2003 statistics: They were right in the wild-card race until their final trip to Puerto Rico, and were worn out by the travel. They ended up being outscored by five runs for the season, and the offense -- 711 runs, .326 on-base, .401 slugging, 144 homers -- reflected the injury to Guerrero, as they were second worst in the division. ... Their starters were OK (56-57, 3.82) thanks to Livan Hernandez and Vazquez, but the bullpen (27-22, 4.40, 42-for-60 in save opportunities) thinned out and weakened. ... Their 102 errors helped lead to 76 unearned runs, second only to Atlanta.

 

Major spring training questions: They are counting on Johnson becoming a star at first, and Batista making a comeback around next year's free agents Orlando Cabrera and Jose Vidro. ... With Everett in left, Brad Wilkerson in center, Juan Rivera in right and Terrmel Sledge and Endy Chavez everywhere, they think the outfield is deeper despite the loss of Guerrero. ... They need Zach Day and Tony Armas to show they're healthy to go in the rotation with Livan Hernandez, Tomo Ohka and Claudio Vargas. ... And they're looking for Frank Robinson to assemble the pen. Rocky Biddle faded and there's some feeling Chad Cordero could close less than a year out of Cal-State Fullerton.

 

2004 team song: "If They Knew This was the End." (The Mendoza Line is an appropriate band here).

 

New York Mets

2003 finish: 66-95, fifth place (-34?)

 

Offseason transactions: Signed free agent SS Kaz Matsui and CF Mike Cameron. ... Also signed closer Braden Looper, OF Karim Garcia, OF Shane Spencer, INF Todd Zeile and RHP Scott Erickson. ... Traded LHP Jamie Cerda to Kansas City for RHP Shawn Sedlacek.

 

Rookies and other strangers: RH reliever Orber Moreno (7-1, 65 SO in 58 IP, Double-A, Triple-A). ... RHP Tyler Yates (3-6, Class A, Double-A, Triple-A). ... 3B-OF Victor Diaz (.352 in Double-A after deal with LA). ... LH reliever Royce Ring (3-0, 1.66, 7 saves, Double-A after deal with White Sox).

 

Significant 2003 statistics: They were dreadful offensively, 642 runs that would have been last again were it not for the Dodgers. ... They were outscored by 114 runs, and the .314 on-base and .374 slugging were pitiful. ... They hit only 124 homers and stole 70 bases. ... The starting pitching (57-64, 4.59), and top winner Steve Trachsel, Al Leiter and Tom Glavine were a combined 40-34 despite the offensive and defensive support. ... Jae Weong Seo 9-12, 3.82 was encouraging. But the starters showed signs of age, throwing only 921 innings, lowest in the division. ... The bullpen was 9-30, 4.28, 38-for-53, with Looper playing the role of Armando Benitez this season. ... They made 118 errors, but a lot of the problems came from balls that weren't touched -- Cameron caught 64 more balls than all the Mets center fielders combined.

 

Major spring training questions: Just because they are headed in the right direction in terms of going back to pitching and defense in that rice paddy known as Shea Stadium doesn't mean there aren't questions. ... Mike Piazza at first? ... Spencer and Garcia in right, unless Roger Cedeno shows up a new player? ... A fifth starter from among Aaron Heilman, Grant Roberts, Scott Erickson, et al? ... Can Looper handle New York? ... They have a long way to go, and this time they have reasonable expectations.

 

2004 team song: "The High Cost of Low Living"

pretty good article

this is still baseball's best division. You have 5 teams that could be .500 or over.

 

The Marlins, Phillies, and Mets are improved and the Braves and Expos still have enough shell to sneak out .500 seasons.

this aeticle was good I enjoyed it lets go fish

Gammons is playing catchup to the Marlins for disrespecting them last season.

 

Now all ESPN has to do is pickup as many Marlins games as they can according to their MLB contract and all is forgiven.

I also believe that this can be the best division in baseball and how we play our divisional games will decide everything. The wild card will most likely come out of the NL East again and come down to the wire

I agree. I equate this to the ACC in basketball. .500 in your division keeps you in the race, but the pressure will be on to beat up opponents outside the division.

 

I think the Phillies deserve to be the favorites. They made very good moves to shore up their weakness - their bullpen. Their starters are solid, but they gave up a good one in Duckworth (but got Wagner in return). I think this team is in trouble should they have a significant injury. We lost Burnett and won the whole damn thing.

 

Speaking of, I think Burnett is juiced and ready to go. I dont think we should rush him back, but something tells me watching his team win the World Series without him didnt sit well. He is a great player, and that could have given him something to prove. Especially with all the accolades Beckett is getting.

 

I think the Mets will be better, but they dont have the pitching to be consistent in my opinion. The Expos made solid moves considering they are a decaying team and run by MLB. I cant rule the Braves out yet, they wont win 100+ games, but they will be very competitive. I do think that should they get a significant injury and that would set them back from wildcard contender to missing the playoffs. I also suspect Ortiz will have a down year. Drew is going to blow up though, he and Chipper are going to be a great offensive tandem.

 

I think this is a safe prediction:

Phillies

Marlins

Braves

Mets

Expos

 

I do think everyone could be over or around .500. Expos are pesky, the Mets just dont have the pitching. Braves lost too much and dont have the talent to replenish their pitching staff, but they will find a way to win.

 

For us, it will depend on how well our bullpen holds up - and I think the FO has got their boys - and if our starters continue to grow and stay healthy. Cant wait...

how we play our divisional games will decide everything.

Agreed. That's what it came down to last year, and we by far had the best record within the division. We always play well against Atlanta and Philly-- our biggest competitors, which is why I wonder why some are so quick to write us off.

I love the fact that we own Atlanta and Philly. That is always a good sign when you play well against your own division. Just ask the Patriots or Jets about playing the Dolphins...

Good article, and I agree that we could be in the most competitive division in baseball.

Mr. Peter also missed that we signed Armando Benitez

"...but the Marlins have their second post-strike World Series ring. They also weren't the fluke some made them out to be..."

 

That "some" would be you Peter Gammons, you of the daily "Lowell and Castillo are being traded" broken record we heard over and over for two months. loloololol

 

How the worm has turned.

yes I agree this was a good article and I like what peter had to say about the marlins he hit the nail on the head.

It is really tough to go back to back but hey anything can happen this year since we are the greatest team of them all.

We did keep the core together even though we lost greedy pudge,gold glover derek lee, the perfect juan encarnacion, rick helling and I think one or two more players.

Oh yeah urbina was a hard loss for me to but it is ok.

Burnett will be back, beckett is ready, willis, penny, pavano and the bullpen will help.

choi I am not to sure about him, Castro will do awesome, luis and mike will have another gold glove season, alex will still have his defensive skills and a better offensive year, JP another great year, cabs is the next pujols, and of course the real Mr.Marlin last but not least my favorite marlin is back for another great year..

JEFF CONINE!!! *dog barks*

Gammons is playing catchup to the Marlins for disrespecting them last season.

 

Now all ESPN has to do is pickup as many Marlins games as they can according to their MLB contract and all is forgiven.

Now, lets be fair, he gave an amazing amount of coverage to Cabrera in the weeks before his callup and after his callup. It's no secret that Gammons is Cabrera's biggest fan over at ESPN, he's been raving about him since this time last year. I'll agree that he's severely biased towards the AL East, but he does work for the Boston Globe, so he writes about what he knows.

 

I've met Gammons before, he's a great guy in person, and he does like a lot of the Marlins players, he just clearly dislikes Loria. I'm thankful for everything Loria did, but I don't really trust him either.

 

Anyways, back on topic: I think that for us to make the playoffs, we're probably going to have to win our division because the Astros and Cubs and Cardinals (Maddux?) are three strong teams and they have two doormats (Brewers and Pirates) to beat up on and bolster their win totals. The weakest team in our division is Montreal, and they're no pushover.

If we win 90 games, we will be in the thick of it again. I think the NL Central is going to be tough, but they should beat up on each other as well and it could be like last year where the Cubs had a worse record than us but won their division.

 

And on a completely unrelated topic, I just want to say I hate football and all the masterbating it causes. How many times are they going to replay the Super Bowl or show it from some 'different' perspective? Jebus, sweet sweet Jebus!!!