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Paul LoDuca


CapeFish
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As you all know, I am a baseball fan who looks at patterns and niches in the a player or team's behavior in order to predict what will happen to them in the future. Well, I am going to look at LoDuca's numbers after the All Star Break in his career.

 

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS??

Pre All Star?? 322 1203 148 377 74 4 36 166 89 95 5 8 .313 .368 .471 .840??

Post All-Star?? 266 928 121 235 48 0 21 109 66 65 3 7 .253 .309 .373 .682

 

 

Now that is a huge difference, but look at the schedule of the Los Angeles Dodgers in those time periods.

Past Dodgers Skeds

Current 2004 Sked

 

Here is LoDuca's numbers against different teams.

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS??

vs.BAL?? 6 23 2 6 2 0 0 1 1 3 1 0 .261 .292 .348 .639??

vs.BOS?? 5 20 2 4 1 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 .200 .238 .250 .488??

vs.ANA?? 25 95 8 24 3 1 5 21 8 6 0 0 .253 .308 .463 .771??

vs.CWS?? 3 11 1 4 0 0 1 2 0 3 0 0 .364 .364 .636 1.000??

vs.CLE?? 3 13 0 4 2 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 .308 .400 .462 .862??

vs.DET?? 3 13 1 3 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 .231 .231 .231 .462??

vs.KC?? 3 12 2 5 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 .417 .417 .750 1.167??

vs.MIL?? 25 94 17 32 6 0 3 11 4 9 1 0 .340 .374 .500 .874??

vs.NYY?? 2 8 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 .375 .375 .500 .875??

vs.OAK?? 4 17 1 5 1 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 .294 .368 .529 .898??

vs.SEA?? 3 9 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 .222 .273 .222 .495??

vs.TEX?? 4 18 1 7 2 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 .389 .400 .500 .900??

vs.TOR?? 6 22 2 6 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 .273 .333 .318 .652??

vs.ATL 21 78 7 22 4 0 1 8 11 3 1 1 .282 .374 .372 .745

vs.CHC?? 17 63 7 20 4 0 0 8 4 9 0 1 .317 .368 .381 .749??

vs.CIN?? 18 72 5 16 4 0 2 8 2 5 0 0 .222 .253 .361 .614??

vs.HOU?? 25 85 15 24 7 0 3 12 12 5 1 1 .282 .390 .471 .861??

vs.MON 17 63 11 24 5 0 2 13 6 3 0 0 .381 .437 .556 .992

vs.NYM 21 78 7 19 2 0 1 2 2 10 0 1 .244 .268 .308 .576

vs.PHI 29 93 8 23 3 0 2 6 5 9 1 1 .247 .297 .344 .641

vs.PIT?? 23 85 12 22 4 0 1 7 5 4 0 2 .259 .315 .341 .656??

vs.STL?? 24 79 11 24 1 0 1 6 7 12 0 0 .304 .375 .354 .729??

vs.SD?? 61 231 25 71 17 0 7 32 15 19 1 1 .307 .357 .472 .829??

vs.SF?? 66 249 38 69 16 1 9 33 14 13 1 1 .277 .316 .458 .774??

vs.COL?? 74 255 42 80 16 0 11 42 19 11 0 2 .314 .362 .506 .868??

vs.FLA 19 66 10 19 1 0 1 13 6 2 0 1 .288 .360 .348 .708

vs.ARI?? 78 266 32 69 15 0 6 33 27 25 1 2 .259 .340 .383 .723??

vs.TB?? 3 13 1 5 2 1 0 5 0 0 0 0 .385 .385 .692 1.077

 

 

Further, let's explore his hitting in different ballparks

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS??

Camden Yards?? 3 12 2 4 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 .333 .385 .417 .801??

Fenway Park?? 3 12 1 3 1 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 .250 .308 .333 .641??

Edison Field?? 12 45 5 12 2 0 4 13 5 3 0 0 .267 .340 .578 .918??

Jacobs Field?? 3 13 0 4 2 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 .308 .400 .462 .862??

County Stadium?? 2 8 2 2 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 .250 .250 .625 .875??

Network Associates?? 3 13 1 3 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 .231 .333 .462 .795??

Arlington?? 1 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .200 .200 .200 .400??

SkyDome?? 3 12 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .250 .250 .333 .583??

Wrigley Field?? 5 22 3 7 1 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 .318 .348 .364 .711??

Cinergy Field?? 3 10 1 3 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 .300 .300 .700 1.000??

Astrodome?? 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 .000 .143 .000 .143??

Dodger Stadium?? 297 1044 127 307 61 3 27 127 68 80 4 6 .294 .342 .436 .777??

Olympic Stadium 6 23 1 8 2 0 0 5 3 1 0 0 .348 .407 .435 .842

Shea Stadium 7 26 4 8 0 0 1 1 0 5 0 0 .308 .333 .423 .756

Veterans Stadium?? 14 49 4 10 1 0 1 5 4 7 1 0 .204 .273 .286 .558??

Busch Stadium?? 13 40 7 14 1 0 1 4 6 5 0 0 .350 .458 .450 .908??

Qualcomm Stadium?? 26 102 10 30 10 0 5 16 7 9 0 1 .294 .354 .539 .893??

3 Com Park?? 3 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .125 .125 .125 .250??

Coors Field?? 37 135 24 37 5 0 7 24 9 5 0 0 .274 .322 .467 .789??

Pro Player Stadium 13 48 7 13 1 0 0 11 6 1 0 1 .271 .357 .292 .649

Turner Field 12 48 2 15 3 0 0 4 7 3 0 1 .313 .400 .375 .775

Bank One Ballpark?? 42 138 20 36 9 0 4 15 17 11 0 2 .261 .354 .413 .767??

Tropicana Field?? 3 13 1 5 2 1 0 5 0 0 0 0 .385 .385 .692 1.077??

Pacific Bell Park?? 29 115 17 37 10 0 2 13 5 6 1 0 .322 .358 .461 .819??

Minute Maid Park?? 11 39 9 9 3 0 0 4 5 2 1 0 .231 .333 .308 .641??

Comerica Park?? 3 13 1 3 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 .231 .231 .231 .462??

Miller Park?? 9 39 6 12 2 0 1 4 2 4 0 0 .308 .341 .436 .777??

PNC Park?? 14 56 11 15 3 0 1 4 4 2 0 2 .268 .339 .375 .714??

Great American?? 3 13 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 .077 .143 .077 .220??

Citizens Bank Park 3 12 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 .333 .385 .333 .718

PETCO Park?? 3 12 1 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 .417 .385 .417 .801

 

 

Looking at the Marlins, they will mostly play the Expos, Braves, Mets, and Phillies from here until the end of the regular season. Well Lo Duca bats .381 against Montreal, .282 against Atlanta, .247 against Philadelphia, and .244 against the Mets. Now remember he has limited play against them, but not too shabby.

 

I think his numbers after the Break will change because of the change in the schedule of opponents he will play. I know many will scream lunacy and say what am I smoking, but this theory has been tested well with the Phillies against us. Some people you can own and some you cannot. Lo Duca is very inconsistent against the other NL and AL divisions, but the NL East seems to be somewhat level considering over his career the Braves, Mets, and Phillies have seen some excellent teams.

 

BTW, he a .288 career batter against the Marlins.

 

Source: Yahoo! Sports

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He seems to hit pretty well in the West Coast ballparks as well. I'm not sure that changing where he plays is going to change his 2nd half numbers. The difference is pretty drastic.

485632[/snapback]

I think it does. going from near sea level (LA, SD, and SF) to Denver takes alot out of anyone. The Dodgers make more trips to Denver in the second half and it takes alot out of anyone. Look at Benitez, he couldn't take pitching a mile high at Coors. He got altitude sickness. Just ask JP where is it easier to play? Miami and any the NL East cities or Denver? Atlanta isn't too high to bother, but high enough where the ball travels.

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I like the deal overall, ive said it before. And LoDuca was someone ive always wanted in black'nteal but I am scared that we wont resign these guys. If Beinfest were to guanrentee these guys for atleast 2 years, not counting this year, the deal would be the best deal of the year. However, if theyre just rentals, and we bow out early in the playoff assuming we make it, then we loose, but thats baseball. It's a gamble. Look at the Phillies, on paper they should be the best team in the NL East...well well well. Theyre not. And The Braves are currently. But with these new guys, i think we can take them down. But WE MUST resign this, my heart will not be broken 98 style again.

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He seems to hit pretty well in the West Coast ballparks as well.? I'm not sure that changing where he plays is going to change his 2nd half numbers.? The difference is pretty drastic.

485632[/snapback]

I think it does. going from near sea level (LA, SD, and SF) to Denver takes alot out of anyone. The Dodgers make more trips to Denver in the second half and it takes alot out of anyone. Look at Benitez, he couldn't take pitching a mile high at Coors. He got altitude sickness. Just ask JP where is it easier to play? Miami and any the NL East cities or Denver? Atlanta isn't too high to bother, but high enough where the ball travels.

485638[/snapback]

 

So, does this happen to every player in LA, SD, SF, and ARI or just LoDuca?

 

I'm not even sure how you're using his old numbers to prove your point. I see what you're saying, though I have no idea where it's coming from, and I have no idea how the numbers play into this.

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He seems to hit pretty well in the West Coast ballparks as well.? I'm not sure that changing where he plays is going to change his 2nd half numbers.? The difference is pretty drastic.

485632[/snapback]

I think it does. going from near sea level (LA, SD, and SF) to Denver takes alot out of anyone. The Dodgers make more trips to Denver in the second half and it takes alot out of anyone. Look at Benitez, he couldn't take pitching a mile high at Coors. He got altitude sickness. Just ask JP where is it easier to play? Miami and any the NL East cities or Denver? Atlanta isn't too high to bother, but high enough where the ball travels.

485638[/snapback]

 

So, does this happen to every player in LA, SD, SF, and ARI or just LoDuca?

 

I'm not even sure how you're using his old numbers to prove your point. I see what you're saying, though I have no idea where it's coming from, and I have no idea how the numbers play into this.

485673[/snapback]

Do all of those team's players play catcher? That is the most physically taxing position in all of baseball.

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So, he'll only wear down playing catcher if he has to travel to Denver, but otherwise he'll be fine?

 

I don't mean to be a bastard about this, but you're spinning quite a tale at this point.

485699[/snapback]

Not as much as he would with the Dodgers. Down here he will of course wear out, but not as big a drop in his numbers should be expected as in past years.

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He seems to hit pretty well in the West Coast ballparks as well.? I'm not sure that changing where he plays is going to change his 2nd half numbers.? The difference is pretty drastic.

485632[/snapback]

I think it does. going from near sea level (LA, SD, and SF) to Denver takes alot out of anyone. The Dodgers make more trips to Denver in the second half and it takes alot out of anyone. Look at Benitez, he couldn't take pitching a mile high at Coors. He got altitude sickness. Just ask JP where is it easier to play? Miami and any the NL East cities or Denver? Atlanta isn't too high to bother, but high enough where the ball travels.

485638[/snapback]

You're reaching.

He was in Denver for 10 days out of a 180+ day season.

 

DC gets very humid in the summer time, and South Florida's weather is just intolerable when I visit.

The west's weather is pretty stagnant year-round. In the NL East LoDuca will be facing much more drastic changes in the weather. Cold one September day in Montreal. Wet, then humid, then bitter cold the next in Philly. Humid and hot as heck in Atlanta. It'll be a b*tch.

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