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Obama crushing Keyes in polls


Flying_Mollusk
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Interesting also to note that it could have a backfire effect with more people voting for Dems in the state and local races.

 

Voters rush past Keyes, favor Obama

Democrat even finds fans among conservatives

 

By Bob Secter

Published August 21, 2004

 

Alan Keyes said it would be an uphill climb when he agreed this month to be the emergency candidate for Illinois Republicans in the U.S. Senate race, but he may not have realized just how steep the ascent will have to be.

 

The nation's first Senate contest featuring two major party African-American candidates is beginning in lopsided fashion, with nearly two-thirds of voters indicating support for Democrat Barack Obama and less than one-quarter backing Keyes, according to a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll.

 

The poll suggests that Keyes' candidacy could hurt other Republicans in local and legislative races. Nearly three in ten voters said they were less likely to back GOP candidates because of the way party leaders went about settling on Keyes as their candidate, though 59 percent said it would make no difference.

 

Although Keyes came late to the race, a sizable number of voters said they had heard of the former presidential candidate. However, more than twice as many said they viewed him with disfavor as said they viewed him favorably, the survey found.

 

Obama has a big head start in campaigning and fundraising over Keyes, a former conservative talk show host imported from Maryland by party leaders to fill in on the ballot after primary winner Jack Ryan dropped out of the race.

 

But playing catch-up is only part of the problem faced by Keyes, according to the survey of 700 registered voters who said they were likely to cast Election Day ballots.

 

Only half of voters who identified themselves as Republicans said they approved of his selection by GOP leaders to replace Ryan. More than half of all voters said Keyes' lack of prior connection to Illinois was a handicap that would render him less capable of serving the state in Congress.

 

Independents back Obama

 

Political independents and white suburban women?constituencies considered vital to capturing victory in statewide election battles?both expressed strong preference for Obama over Keyes, the survey found. So too did black voters, who showed no signs of being swayed by Republican arguments that the selection of Keyes underscored the party's commitment to diversity.

 

Conservatives said they recruited the outspoken Keyes as someone who could eloquently make the case that Obama, a Democratic state senator from Hyde Park, was too liberal to represent the state. But the poll showed that more than half of voters said they mostly agreed with Obama's stance on issues, while less than one in five said they agreed with Keyes.

 

Even voters who described themselves as fairly conservative preferred Obama to Keyes by a margin of 49 percent to 40 percent.

 

Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect conducted the survey Aug. 13-16. It has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

 

The Illinois Senate race has generated intense national interest, both for the historic nature of the match-up between two black candidates and for the sometimes painful and stumbling spectacle that the Republican attempt to field a candidate had become.

 

Ryan, a wealthy former investment banker turned inner-city teacher, easily won the March primary over a crowded field of challengers seeking to replace Republican U.S. Senator Peter Fitzgerald, who is retiring after one term. But Ryan quit the race in June after the court-ordered release of parts of his previously sealed divorce file showed that his ex-wife had accused him of taking her to sex clubs and trying to have sex with her in front of others.

 

Keyes wasn't the first choice of party leaders to take Ryan's spot on the ballot. Or the second. Or the third. With Obama's strong showing in the Democratic primary and in later polls, a wide array of Republican political luminaries and celebrities?from former Gov. Jim Edgar to ex-Bears coach Mike Ditka?flirted with the idea of challenging the Democrat and opted not to.

 

Triumph for the far right

 

The decision finally to go with Keyes despite his lack of Illinois connections represented a victory for the party's most conservative elements, who have long argued that the Republican power structure in Illinois had become too moderate.

 

It also has turned the race into something of an intraparty experiment, as Republicans test the electoral appeal of Keyes' brand of unbending, religiously based conservatism in Illinois.

 

One telling indicator may involve abortion.

 

Keyes has made opposition to abortion a centerpiece of his campaign, forcefully decrying it as a sin and equating abortion rights advocates like Obama to slaveholders. But the survey found that only 28 percent of Illinois voters want to see restrictions on abortion tightened, while 61 percent said they either liked the status quo or thought restrictions should be loosened. The rest said they didn't know.

 

And even among the group of voters who wanted more restrictions on abortion, 42 percent said they supported the election of Obama compared with 45 percent who favored Keyes. The rest said they were undecided or would vote for another candidate.

 

So far, the survey shows, Keyes' ideological appeal is narrow. Voters who described themselves as very conservative favored him over Obama by a 55 percent to 36 percent margin. But that group accounted for only 13 percent of those surveyed.

 

Seven in 10 voters surveyed described themselves as either fairly conservative or moderate, and Obama was the choice of both groups. Fairly conservative voters said they favored him over Keyes by a 49 percent to 40 percent margin, while 76 percent of moderates backed Obama compared with just 10 percent for Keyes.

 

Though blacks are a traditional Democratic constituency, GOP leaders were hoping that the selection of Keyes could help them make inroads into that community. But black crowds cheered Obama and widely jeered Keyes as they marched in the annual Bud Billiken Day parade on the South Side recently, and the poll indicates that the reactions were hardly a fluke.

 

Ninety-six percent of black voters said they backed the election of Obama and 90 percent said they held a favorable opinion of the Democrat. By contrast, only 3 percent of black voters said they viewed Keyes favorably, while 65 percent did not view him favorably and 24 percent had no opinion.

 

Despite the controversy that led Ryan to drop off the ballot, black voters still had a far higher opinion of him than Keyes, with 25 percent saying they viewed the former GOP candidate favorably.

 

Though the survey showed Obama jumping out to a commanding lead of 65 percent to 24 percent over Keyes among all voters, it also showed that Ryan, had he stayed on the ballot, might have done a little better?though not much.

 

Support for Ryan persists

 

Asked about a theoretical match-up between Obama and Ryan, 60 percent of voters said they would back the Democrat while 31 percent supported Ryan. A similar Tribune/WGN-TV survey in May, when Ryan was still a candidate, showed that he was the choice of 30 percent of voters at the time, with Obama backed by 52 percent.

 

Indeed, 56 percent of voters said Ryan should not have dropped out of the race, while 31 percent said his departure was appropriate.

 

Keyes' lack of connection to Illinois has left him open to charges of carpetbagging, but he has sought to turn that around by suggesting that the state's political system is so chronically corrupt that only an outsider like him could avoid the taint.

 

Voters, however, clearly have qualms, with 55 percent saying his lack of prior residence in the state makes him less capable of serving as an Illinois senator. Only 37 percent said it made no difference.

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You gotta respect what Keyes is doing. He's running for the republicans knowing it's practically a lost cause. :notworthy

 

I really don't see what is so exicting about Obama. The media is making him seem like the best candidate ever. The Democrats will probably promote him to the point where he can be president, because of his blackness.

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You gotta respect what Keyes is doing. He's running for the republicans knowing it's practically a lost cause. :notworthy

 

I really don't see what is so exicting about Obama. The media is making him seem like the best candidate ever. The Democrats will probably promote him to the point where he can be president, because of his blackness.

521039[/snapback]

 

The guys a great speaker and has great charisma.

 

That I know.

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Guest markotsay7

Obama does have a great talent for speaking and has that sort of aura about him. As conservative as I am, I do like Obama.

 

That being said, I love Alan Keyes. If he ran for President I'd vote for him in a heartbeat.

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I hope you guys realize that Keyes "flip-flopped" on his criticism of Hillary Clinton, when she moved to New York so that she could run for a Senate seat there. When that happened, he was strongly opposed to the idea of a candidate doing such a thing, but now he's doing the EXACT SAME THING by running for the senate seat in Illinois.

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I hope you guys realize that Keyes "flip-flopped" on his criticism of Hillary Clinton, when she moved to New York so that she could run for a Senate seat there. When that happened, he was strongly opposed to the idea of a candidate doing such a thing, but now he's doing the EXACT SAME THING by running for the senate seat in Illinois.

522047[/snapback]

Do you see me caring a bit about Keyes?

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I hope you guys realize that Keyes "flip-flopped" on his criticism of Hillary Clinton, when she moved to New York so that she could run for a Senate seat there. When that happened, he was strongly opposed to the idea of a candidate doing such a thing, but now he's doing the EXACT SAME THING by running for the senate seat in Illinois.

522047[/snapback]

Do you see me caring a bit about Keyes?

522050[/snapback]

I'm just reminding the people who do like him.

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why would it have anything to do with his "blackness" when his opponent is also black?

 

What exactly makes any leader really popular? I dont think any state Senator is popular for their political leanings. I think it has more to do with the character and charisma. At which point you might say they are all overrated.

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Keyes didnt stand a chance since he began his campaign. He IS an excellent speaker and debater, but the obama has too much momentum especially after the dnc. obama will not run in 2008 btw. In fact if kerry/edwards win the worst thing for obama would be if they get reelected, b/c that would automatically cause edwards to run in 2012 and unless he picks obama as VP, obama wont get his chance until 1216 0r 2020, which by then will no longer have the youthful minority prodigy thing going for him.

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How the hell could you guys support Keyes? Especially you hispanics out there. And also he wants no seperation of church and state.

524918[/snapback]

 

i dont particularly support keyes, plus im not in ilinois so its irrelevant. He's big o ntraditional values does not equal he doesnt want seperation of church and state, sorry to burst your bubble. True he apparently wants less seperation, but he doesnt want to live in a theocracy either, if you;ve read any of his writings he actually is very big on freedom as well. What i like about keyes is that he isnt afraid to say what he feels is best, even if someone gets offended or it isnt PC enough

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How the hell could you guys support Keyes? Especially you hispanics out there. And also he wants no seperation of church and state.

524918[/snapback]

 

i dont particularly support keyes, plus im not in ilinois so its irrelevant. He's big o ntraditional values does not equal he doesnt want seperation of church and state, sorry to burst your bubble. True he apparently wants less seperation, but he doesnt want to live in a theocracy either, if you;ve read any of his writings he actually is very big on freedom as well. What i like about keyes is that he isnt afraid to say what he feels is best, even if someone gets offended or it isnt PC enough

525713[/snapback]

Ummm, I've read his quotes. Pray everywhere he says. That doesn't sound like not wanting a theocracy to me.

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traditional values is one thing but the role he expects Christianity to play in our societ and the fact that he wants to be an elected official suggest he would infuse more than just small influences on this nation. Yes he hasnt technically said it but for all intensive purposes, he wouldnt mind violating the seperation of church and state.

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Is Keys really as exclusive about Christianity as you claim or just willing to accept more involvment of all religions in general?

 

Yeah, Im sure Keyes wants non Judeo Christian religions like Islam and Hinduism involved. :thumbup Have you heard some of the things he has said?

 

This website is pretty good at getting people's views based on their actual quotes. Here are some views he has expressed. He mostly says God and stuff but sometimes gets explicit

 

Ten Commandments & prayer should be in schools. (Jan 2000)

We have suffered because of our abandonment of His name(Oct 2003)

Christianity best; but Declaration of Independence will do. (Aug 2004)

Moral bases come from Christianity via Declaration.(Jan 1999)

 

 

http://www.issues2000.org/Alan_Keyes.htm

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You would think that he'd be supportive of all religions, but I have yet to see it.

 

What I've seen is that he ties Christianity to the Constitution with the old "it's what our forefathers & the framers believed in" line. Thus America = Christianity.

 

I saw a debate he had with Alan Durshowitz over the role of organized religion. I have a link to the transcripts but if you can ever catch it on CSPAN or something it's a good one.

 

link

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"Rights are not self-evident. They're not unalienable. They are subject to modification just like anything else."

 

I cant believe Dershowitz just said this. If we did not have unalienable rights then speration of church and state, freedoms of speech religion and so forth are null and void. If they arent unalienable then they are put on us by govt, which means that govt is in control not the individual.

 

By the way.... alan Keyes spoke from personal experience as a christian. Not once did he imply that govt should judge only by christian values. What he was saying was that govt cannot restrict us from practicing our faith based morality. Regardless of religion

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