October 4, 200422 yr - Appease Lowell. He's the face of the franchise and a damn good hitter. Keep him around. - Tender to Pavano, Benitez and Cordero. If any of them want to come back, fine, if not we get draft picks to help the severely depleted farm system. Re-sign Seanez and Mordecai to 1-year $400K contracts, Redmond to a 2-year $2.5M deal and Valdez for one-year at $1.5M. Harris, Fox and Manzanillo to a minor league deals. - Trade LoDuca and Encarnacion. Enc and prospect for Jose Guillen; LoDuca for prospects. If you can't get Guillen couple both for pitching and outfield / first base prospects ready to contribute if not now then very soon. - Re-sign Burnett ($4M), Beckett ($3M), Spooneybarger ($.5M) and Mota ($2M) and avoid arbitration. Reward Cabrera and Willis and raise their salaries to $500K each. - Fill in the gaps. If we can't get Guillen, go after Drew, Beltran, Sexson or Magglio. Bring in a decent lefty bat (Greg Colbrunn?) for the bench. Sign a bunch of retreads to compete with the youngsters for bench and bullpen jobs. Don't retain the services of the mediocre veterans at the end of spring training. Redmond 1.250 Burnett 4.000 Willingham 0.400 Beckett 3.000 Conine 4.750 Willis 0.500 Castillo 5.333 Valdez/? 1.500 Lowell 8.000 Wayne/Bump 0.400 Gonzalez 3.400 Mota 2.000 Cabrera 0.500 Spooneybarger 0.350 Pierre 3.400 Howard 0.400 Wilson 0.300 Seanez 0.400 Aguila 0.350 Bump/ML/STI 0.400 Mordecai 0.400 Gracesqui/LHP? 0.300 Colbrunn/LHB? 0.750 Harris/ML/STI? 0.300 Hampton&Pudge 11.000 TOTAL 53.383 w/ Beltran 65.383 w/ Drew, Sexton or Magglio 61.383 w/ Guillen 56.383
October 4, 200422 yr Author Redmond and Willingham. Willingham would hopefully pick up 400-450 at bats between catcher and first base
October 4, 200422 yr Redmond and Willingham. Willingham would hopefully pick up 400-450 at bats between catcher and first base 581664[/snapback] That will not work out...i dont think the fish will go into next season without a quality catcher,remember what happened this year...
October 4, 200422 yr Redmond and Willingham. Willingham would hopefully pick up 400-450 at bats between catcher and first base 581664[/snapback] That will not work out...i dont think the fish will go into next season without a quality catcher,remember what happened this year... 581686[/snapback] Agreed, Redmond & Willingham have proved they're not up to the task.
October 4, 200422 yr Redmond and Willingham. Willingham would hopefully pick up 400-450 at bats between catcher and first base 581664[/snapback] That will not work out...i dont think the fish will go into next season without a quality catcher,remember what happened this year... 581686[/snapback] Agreed, Redmond & Willingham have proved they're not up to the task. 581691[/snapback] You have to understand that rferry has hated LoDuca from the beginning. He hates him so much that rferry has actually CHANGED history. You see, Redmond and Willingham were tearin' it up until LoDuca came and ruined it all with his 31 RBI in 51 games.
October 4, 200422 yr Redmond and Willingham. Willingham would hopefully pick up 400-450 at bats between catcher and first base 581664[/snapback] That will not work out...i dont think the fish will go into next season without a quality catcher,remember what happened this year... 581686[/snapback] Agreed, Redmond & Willingham have proved they're not up to the task. 581691[/snapback] You have to understand that rferry has hated LoDuca from the beginning. He hates him so much that rferry has actually CHANGED history. You see, Redmond and Willingham were tearin' it up until LoDuca came and ruined it all with his 31 RBI in 51 games. 581743[/snapback] Umm I dont think he hates Loduca, its more of the fact of the trade the Marlins did. He's a stat guy just like me and we dont think hes worth over 6 million which is what hes going to recieve.
October 4, 200422 yr I don't want Lowell back as a #1 priority....It really needs to be Benitez as #1. He's the backbone of a shaky pen.
October 4, 200422 yr I don't want Lowell back as a #1 priority....It really needs to be Benitez as #1. He's the backbone of a shaky pen. 581827[/snapback] You have to get it to the closer for him to even matter. Not saying we can't win without Lowell but you do have to consider that we need something besides Benitez to make him even matter.
October 4, 200422 yr Author Redmond and Willingham. Willingham would hopefully pick up 400-450 at bats between catcher and first base 581664[/snapback] That will not work out...i dont think the fish will go into next season without a quality catcher,remember what happened this year... 581686[/snapback] Redmond is a solid backup and Willingham has one of the few major league ready bats in the organization. Let's just say Redmond/Willingham put together a disapointing campaign and fail to combine for a .700 OPS, that's still about where Encarnacion was this year and I don't expect him to get much better recovering from surgery. Drew/Guillen is a ridiculously huge upgrade offensively over LoDuca. You can't let one Ramon Castro incident or a disappointing June/July (which had more to do with injuries to starting pitching than Redmond/Treanor) let you lose all sense of reality. Thanks to an injury-aided All-Star appearance and Jack starting him a ton, LoDuca will be severely overvalued. I'd much rather use than six to seven million on a much better bat. It has little to do with my despise of the trade, LoDuca or 'intangibles'.
October 4, 200422 yr Redmond and Willingham. Willingham would hopefully pick up 400-450 at bats between catcher and first base 581664[/snapback] That will not work out...i dont think the fish will go into next season without a quality catcher,remember what happened this year... 581686[/snapback] Redmond is a solid backup and Willingham has one of the few major league ready bats in the organization. Let's just say Redmond/Willingham put together a disapointing campaign and fail to combine for a .700 OPS, that's still about where Encarnacion was this year and I don't expect him to get much better recovering from surgery. Drew/Guillen is a ridiculously huge upgrade offensively over LoDuca. You can't let one Ramon Castro incident or a disappointing June/July (which had more to do with injuries to starting pitching than Redmond/Treanor) let you lose all sense of reality. Thanks to an injury-aided All-Star appearance and Jack starting him a ton, LoDuca will be severely overvalued. I'd much rather use than six to seven million on a much better bat. It has little to do with my despise of the trade, LoDuca or 'intangibles'. 581847[/snapback] I agree. Redmond has been an above average back-up catcher and as a small-market team we are going to have to entrust alot of our success to our prospects and right now I think that means giving Willingham the nod next season. Just think about how much we would save. Lo Duca is going to command 6 - 7 million, I don't think people really appreciate what we have to work with. It's not much at all. Assume you keep all the pieces together for next season, we are no where better offensively than we were this season and are more than likely worse off than last season. after the season terminates everyone on the team is one year older and the likelihood of winning with retaining our core of Cabrera, Beckett, Willis, Pavano is growing slimmer. If it weren't such a PR mistake I'd try to shop Conine around, nearly 5 million for him is insane. In order to compete next season we are going to have to gamble, we don't have the resources to not do so. Gamble wisely. Let Lo Duca go and bring in Drew, that is an enormous upgrade right there and would cost perhaps 2 or 3 million more season perhaps the difference in salaries between Clement and Pavano? The difference would be made up by just getting rid of Encarnacion. Pierre Castillo Drew Cabrera Lowell Palmeiro Aguila/Conine Gonzo Willingham Bench: Cordero, Dellucci, Easley, Redmond Clement, Beckett, Burnett, Willis, Valdez Spooney, Williamson, Mota, Howard, Saenz
October 4, 200422 yr I don't want Lowell back as a #1 priority....It really needs to be Benitez as #1. He's the backbone of a shaky pen. 581827[/snapback] Amen.
October 4, 200422 yr I love how people try to say that Willy isn't ready just from the very few at-bats he had while up here. Maybe if you did some research you would understand why me, rferry and others are so high on him. To all the Lo Duca lovers. What did Lo Duca do that makes you think that he is worth anywhere near 5-6 million. His OPS with us was a dismal .734. Only 80 points higher than Redmond's OPS this year. He was no better than Redmond defensively, so you can't argue that. Willy will at least be able to put up an .800 OPS.(I think he'll do even better.) He has a nack for getting on base, and has way more power than Lo Duca. So let's say Willy puts up an .800 OPS and Redmond matches his .660 OPS of this year, and they get equal playing time. Average those and that's a .730 OPS, matching Lo Duca's production at $5 million less. Willy is by no means Ramon Castro. Castro had not gotten consistent playing time in 3 years, and really his only asset before was his power.
October 5, 200422 yr Most of these people don't like OPS-type players either because they don't understand OPS or just don't think its important. You can't convince them that its a meaningful stat it seems. I mean hell when Choi was traded some people celebrated that he was gone not that we got LoDuca and Mota. They just wanted Choi gone because he didn't hit for a .300 average or have a gazzillion RBI's.
October 5, 200422 yr Most of these people don't like OPS-type players either because they don't understand OPS or just don't think its important. You can't convince them that its a meaningful stat it seems. I mean hell when Choi was traded some people celebrated that he was gone not that we got LoDuca and Mota. They just wanted Choi gone because he didn't hit for a .300 average or have a gazzillion RBI's. 582358[/snapback] There's no better way to evaluate a player. It includes getting on base and the ability to hit for power and extra bases. I can't explain the value of a hitter any way else. I'd like for someone to explain to me why OPS is not a useful stat.
October 5, 200422 yr Most of these people don't like OPS-type players either because they don't understand OPS or just don't think its important. You can't convince them that its a meaningful stat it seems. I mean hell when Choi was traded some people celebrated that he was gone not that we got LoDuca and Mota. They just wanted Choi gone because he didn't hit for a .300 average or have a gazzillion RBI's. 582358[/snapback] Meh. OPS works for middle of the lineup hitters. My knocks on Willy are from a catcher's standpoint.
October 5, 200422 yr Most of these people don't like OPS-type players either because they don't understand OPS or just don't think its important. You can't convince them that its a meaningful stat it seems. I mean hell when Choi was traded some people celebrated that he was gone not that we got LoDuca and Mota. They just wanted Choi gone because he didn't hit for a .300 average or have a gazzillion RBI's. 582358[/snapback] Meh. OPS works for middle of the lineup hitters. My knocks on Willy are from a catcher's standpoint. 582409[/snapback] Why whats the difference? Either way your measuring a players offensive capabilties.
October 5, 200422 yr The only time I see OPS as a fair evaluation is when you're talking about who's 3-hole hitter is the best. Personally, this saber-metric stuff is a little too much for me. When evaluating a player walks, which were previously undervalued, are now waaaaaaaay too over valued because a walk is not as good as a base hit, not by any means, when a ball is in play, crazy stuff can happen (Choi's inside the parker this year). And for all the stat heads out there, if the games were played on paper, the Phillies would be in the playoffs right now. Lo Duca is a proven catcher, our pitchers are comfortable with him calling pitches because of his knowledge of other teams (like Pudge). If he leaves, we're going to be in big trouble next year...we can't get snake-bitten twice in as many years. Is he perfect, no. Is he Pudge, no, but he's the best option available for the short-term.
October 5, 200422 yr OPS is OBP+Slugging%. The argument that walks are overvalued is not a good argument against OPS because walks are not included in slugging %. A walk is a successful at-bat no matter what way you look at it, though. Also, the argument that it only works for #3 hitters I disagree 100%, I could understand if we're talking about leadoff hitters, then I would value OBP higher than Slugging %, but give me two leadoff hitters with identical OBPs, but one guy has a much higher slugging % than the other and I'll take the guy with the higher slugging %. Every player in the lineup's job is to get on base and to create runs, and OPS is the only stat that includes all ways to get on base and create runs.
October 5, 200422 yr OPS is OBP+Slugging%. The argument that walks are overvalued is not a good argument against OPS because walks are not included in slugging %. A walk is a successful at-bat no matter what way you look at it, though. Also, the argument that it only works for #3 hitters I disagree 100%, I could understand if we're talking about leadoff hitters, then I would value OBP higher than Slugging %, but give me two leadoff hitters with identical OBPs, but one guy has a much higher slugging % than the other and I'll take the guy with the higher slugging %. Every player in the lineup's job is to get on base and to create runs, and OPS is the only stat that includes all ways to get on base and create runs. 582429[/snapback] Walks are part of OBP, so it absolutely counts. And come on, the only ones with slugging and on-base who truly affect how the team performs are the middle of the lineup guys. For a leadoff man, the only evaluator that really matters is batting average and OBP. And just FYI, the player who had the highest OPS on our team the last two years was everyone's favorite goat Derrek Lee, and he lead in 2000 as well. OPS is overvalued, I'm not saying it's a bad stat, it does help differentiate similar players, but to make it the one stat that determines a player's value is crazy.
October 5, 200422 yr OPS is OBP+Slugging%.? The argument that walks are overvalued is not a good argument against OPS because walks are not included in slugging %.? A walk is a successful at-bat no matter what way you look at it, though. Also, the argument that it only works for #3 hitters I disagree 100%, I could understand if we're talking about leadoff hitters, then I would value OBP higher than Slugging %, but give me two leadoff hitters with identical OBPs, but one guy has a much higher slugging % than the other and I'll take the guy with the higher slugging %.? Every player in the lineup's job is to get on base and to create runs, and OPS is the only stat that includes all ways to get on base and create runs. 582429[/snapback] Walks are part of OBP, so it absolutely counts. And come on, the only ones with slugging and on-base who truly affect how the team performs are the middle of the lineup guys. For a leadoff man, the only evaluator that really matters is batting average and OBP. And just FYI, the player who had the highest OPS on our team the last two years was everyone's favorite goat Derrek Lee, and he lead in 2000 as well. OPS is overvalued, I'm not saying it's a bad stat, it does help differentiate similar players, but to make it the one stat that determines a player's value is crazy. 582435[/snapback] Derrek Lee is a fine player. One reason I didn't mind the trade though because I knew Choi wouldn't be much of a drop off, and at $8 million less. Then of course we traded him too. :banghead and by saying that the only evaluator that matters for a leadoff man is OBP and batting average, you are basically saying that it wouldn't matter to you whether JP got on base with a single or a double or triple. Obviously you'd rather see him get an extra base hit. I've yet to have someone explain to me why OPS isn't important for guys hitting 6-7-8 either yet.
October 5, 200422 yr OPS is OBP+Slugging%.? The argument that walks are overvalued is not a good argument against OPS because walks are not included in slugging %.? A walk is a successful at-bat no matter what way you look at it, though. Also, the argument that it only works for #3 hitters I disagree 100%, I could understand if we're talking about leadoff hitters, then I would value OBP higher than Slugging %, but give me two leadoff hitters with identical OBPs, but one guy has a much higher slugging % than the other and I'll take the guy with the higher slugging %.? Every player in the lineup's job is to get on base and to create runs, and OPS is the only stat that includes all ways to get on base and create runs. 582429[/snapback] Walks are part of OBP, so it absolutely counts. And come on, the only ones with slugging and on-base who truly affect how the team performs are the middle of the lineup guys. For a leadoff man, the only evaluator that really matters is batting average and OBP. And just FYI, the player who had the highest OPS on our team the last two years was everyone's favorite goat Derrek Lee, and he lead in 2000 as well. OPS is overvalued, I'm not saying it's a bad stat, it does help differentiate similar players, but to make it the one stat that determines a player's value is crazy. 582435[/snapback] Derrek Lee is a fine player. One reason I didn't mind the trade though because I knew Choi wouldn't be much of a drop off, and at $8 million less. Then of course we traded him too. :banghead and by saying that the only evaluator that matters for a leadoff man is OBP and batting average, you are basically saying that it wouldn't matter to you whether JP got on base with a single or a double or triple. Obviously you'd rather see him get an extra base hit. I've yet to have someone explain to me why OPS isn't important for guys hitting 6-7-8 either yet. 582439[/snapback] It's important but not applicable. With a stat like OPS, you want to quantify "how valuable" that middle of the lineup bat is. Most of the time you hear OPS is when you're trying to figure out who had a statistically better season when there are so many identical or close statistics. Simply put, you know that whoever is hitting 3-5 for your team is going to drive in runs, hit some home-runs and get on base, you just want to know "how much" he's doing. With the lower lineup guys, your expectations are a little lower, the statistics that drive a player more towards the bottom of the lineup are RBI (because when a lower lineup guy has a lot of RBI, you can say that he does cash in on limited opportunity) and OPS really doesn't become super relevant. If you 7-hole hitter is putting up a .900 OPS, you know he'd be the 5 hole hitter for a lot of inferior teams. Pretty much, the only time an OPS becomes important for lower lineup guys is if you're the Yankees or Cardinals. Other than that, OPS finds itself limited to the MVP race and the debate over who should hit third and who should hit fourth.
October 5, 200422 yr OPS is OBP+Slugging%.? The argument that walks are overvalued is not a good argument against OPS because walks are not included in slugging %.? A walk is a successful at-bat no matter what way you look at it, though. Also, the argument that it only works for #3 hitters I disagree 100%, I could understand if we're talking about leadoff hitters, then I would value OBP higher than Slugging %, but give me two leadoff hitters with identical OBPs, but one guy has a much higher slugging % than the other and I'll take the guy with the higher slugging %.? Every player in the lineup's job is to get on base and to create runs, and OPS is the only stat that includes all ways to get on base and create runs. 582429[/snapback] Walks are part of OBP, so it absolutely counts. And come on, the only ones with slugging and on-base who truly affect how the team performs are the middle of the lineup guys. For a leadoff man, the only evaluator that really matters is batting average and OBP. And just FYI, the player who had the highest OPS on our team the last two years was everyone's favorite goat Derrek Lee, and he lead in 2000 as well. OPS is overvalued, I'm not saying it's a bad stat, it does help differentiate similar players, but to make it the one stat that determines a player's value is crazy. 582435[/snapback] Derrek Lee is a fine player. One reason I didn't mind the trade though because I knew Choi wouldn't be much of a drop off, and at $8 million less. Then of course we traded him too. :banghead and by saying that the only evaluator that matters for a leadoff man is OBP and batting average, you are basically saying that it wouldn't matter to you whether JP got on base with a single or a double or triple. Obviously you'd rather see him get an extra base hit. I've yet to have someone explain to me why OPS isn't important for guys hitting 6-7-8 either yet. 582439[/snapback] It's important but not applicable. With a stat like OPS, you want to quantify "how valuable" that middle of the lineup bat is. Most of the time you hear OPS is when you're trying to figure out who had a statistically better season when there are so many identical or close statistics. Simply put, you know that whoever is hitting 3-5 for your team is going to drive in runs, hit some home-runs and get on base, you just want to know "how much" he's doing. With the lower lineup guys, your expectations are a little lower, the statistics that drive a player more towards the bottom of the lineup are RBI (because when a lower lineup guy has a lot of RBI, you can say that he does cash in on limited opportunity) and OPS really doesn't become super relevant. If you 7-hole hitter is putting up a .900 OPS, you know he'd be the 5 hole hitter for a lot of inferior teams. Pretty much, the only time an OPS becomes important for lower lineup guys is if you're the Yankees or Cardinals. Other than that, OPS finds itself limited to the MVP race and the debate over who should hit third and who should hit fourth. 582450[/snapback] I don't think I'm following. Are you trying to say that OPS is not important to 6-7-8 hitters just because their not as good of hitters as the 3-5 hitters? That really doesn't make any sense. That's like saying the 1-5 hitters are the only hitters that matter in a lineup. Successful teams get production throughout the lineup. As we have seen this year, having a weak tail end of the lineup can kill a team. 6-7-8 hitters are just as important as 1-5 hitters. Another point no one on the marlins had a .900 OPS. The highest was .879 by Cabrera.
October 5, 200422 yr OPS is OBP+Slugging%.? The argument that walks are overvalued is not a good argument against OPS because walks are not included in slugging %.? A walk is a successful at-bat no matter what way you look at it, though. Also, the argument that it only works for #3 hitters I disagree 100%, I could understand if we're talking about leadoff hitters, then I would value OBP higher than Slugging %, but give me two leadoff hitters with identical OBPs, but one guy has a much higher slugging % than the other and I'll take the guy with the higher slugging %.? Every player in the lineup's job is to get on base and to create runs, and OPS is the only stat that includes all ways to get on base and create runs. 582429[/snapback] Walks are part of OBP, so it absolutely counts. And come on, the only ones with slugging and on-base who truly affect how the team performs are the middle of the lineup guys. For a leadoff man, the only evaluator that really matters is batting average and OBP. And just FYI, the player who had the highest OPS on our team the last two years was everyone's favorite goat Derrek Lee, and he lead in 2000 as well. OPS is overvalued, I'm not saying it's a bad stat, it does help differentiate similar players, but to make it the one stat that determines a player's value is crazy. 582435[/snapback] Derrek Lee is a fine player. One reason I didn't mind the trade though because I knew Choi wouldn't be much of a drop off, and at $8 million less. Then of course we traded him too. :banghead and by saying that the only evaluator that matters for a leadoff man is OBP and batting average, you are basically saying that it wouldn't matter to you whether JP got on base with a single or a double or triple. Obviously you'd rather see him get an extra base hit. I've yet to have someone explain to me why OPS isn't important for guys hitting 6-7-8 either yet. 582439[/snapback] It's important but not applicable. With a stat like OPS, you want to quantify "how valuable" that middle of the lineup bat is. Most of the time you hear OPS is when you're trying to figure out who had a statistically better season when there are so many identical or close statistics. Simply put, you know that whoever is hitting 3-5 for your team is going to drive in runs, hit some home-runs and get on base, you just want to know "how much" he's doing. With the lower lineup guys, your expectations are a little lower, the statistics that drive a player more towards the bottom of the lineup are RBI (because when a lower lineup guy has a lot of RBI, you can say that he does cash in on limited opportunity) and OPS really doesn't become super relevant. If you 7-hole hitter is putting up a .900 OPS, you know he'd be the 5 hole hitter for a lot of inferior teams. Pretty much, the only time an OPS becomes important for lower lineup guys is if you're the Yankees or Cardinals. Other than that, OPS finds itself limited to the MVP race and the debate over who should hit third and who should hit fourth. 582450[/snapback] I don't think I'm following. Are you trying to say that OPS is not important to 6-7-8 hitters just because their not as good of hitters as the 3-5 hitters? That really doesn't make any sense. That's like saying the 1-5 hitters are the only hitters that matter in a lineup. Successful teams get production throughout the lineup. As we have seen this year, having a weak tail end of the lineup can kill a team. 6-7-8 hitters are just as important as 1-5 hitters. Another point no one on the marlins had a .900 OPS. The highest was .879 by Cabrera. 582456[/snapback] What I'm saying is that different things are expected from different points in the lineup. Is a leadoff hitter a failure because he doesn't hit 30 HR's? No, because that's not expected from him. You seem to think that OPS is an applicable stat to everyone in the lineup, but go look at the top 30 OPS leaders this year, they'd all be batting anywhere from 3-5 in the lineup. And look at the OPS leaders for our team. Cabrera, Lowell...our 3 and 4 hitters.
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.