With all the Presidential debates completed, who do you think will win the election? Think outside the box, politics aside and regardless who you are voting for. Can you make a fair assessment?

 

 

I think Kerry will win.

Reasons:

1. 1st debate very damaging to President Bush. I don't think he recovered enought

2. I have to say that the Kerry campain has done a good job about pointing out Bush's administration apparent weaknesses.

3. Gas prices going up lately (does not help Bush at all)

4. Iraq Iraq and Iraq

 

I think Kerry will win with a 4% margin on the popular vote.

 

btw, I'll be voting for Bush and I hope that I'm death wrong.

I just dont see the country electing such a liberal person as Kerry. I believe Bush will win, I believe that it will be close, not because people like Kerry its because there is anti Bush feeling, but for the most part I feel Bush has the election won. Bush will have 4 more years.

I think Kerry will probably win.

It all depends. If the surge in registered voters for dems does end up having an effect, then Kerry. If it doesnt and Bush's call to his base has an effect, then Bush. If the undecideds are bigger than Bush realizes, then Kerry. I still think it boils down to winning two of three states:Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

I agree, if Bush wins 2 out of those 3, then it's his election to lose, but if he dosent, I give Kerry a 95% chance of winning

Although it's far from a certainty, I'd have to say Bush.

 

I don't think Kerry has capitalized and gained a lot of traction on domestic issues, or at least not enough.

 

The lack of significant and definitive pro-Kerry changes in the polls after his clear victory(ies) in the debates also serves as a harbringer that despite his best efforts, he just hasn't turned the corner.

Though I don't like it, I gotta go with Bush. When you break the electoral college down, things still look much more favorable from his position, neverminding that he's had a terrible few weeks.

 

 

[crossing my fingers that things turn out otherwise]

I think this race will depend on first-time voters and young voters. Polls are saying about 50%-55% of college students say they will be voting and another 5% say they are thinking about it. I heard it on NPR and too lazy to try and find an article. Of course numbers like these show a big boost in college student intrest and I think the race will depend on that demographic. I think people who voted for Gore in 2000 will vote for Kerry and those who voted for Bush will still vote Bush, generally. I don't think many people changed sides. So I think thise whole election hinges on new voters.

I gotta go with Bush.? When you break the electoral college down, things still look much more favorable from his position591829[/snapback]

dingdingding we have a winner

Nader carries Wisconsion :o

I believe Kerry runs off with it, tallying almost 300 electoral votes at 55% of the popular vote.

 

But God do I hope I'm wrong.

I believe Kerry runs off with it, tallying almost 300 electoral votes at 55% of the popular vote.

 

But God do I hope I'm wrong.

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Well, you are.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a HUGE Bush supporter/volunteer.

 

Just, I've never seen or read about such hatred for a current president.

I believe Kerry runs off with it, tallying almost 300 electoral votes at 55% of the popular vote.

 

But God do I hope I'm wrong.

591857[/snapback]

Well, you are.

591865[/snapback]

 

The fact that you're taking this so seriously as to attack someone's opinion on the voted outcome of the unwashed masses is sad on so many levels...

 

That being said, I'm saying Kerry just because of the fact that IN MOST CASES the Nader factor has been almost eliminated (imagine no Nader in the last election, hmmmm?).

Don't get me wrong, I'm a HUGE Bush supporter/volunteer.

 

Just, I've never seen or read about such hatred for a current president.

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Were you around any decent republican from the years 1992-2000 inclusive?

 

Turnabout is fair play, as far as I'm concerned. We hated that hillbilly, white-trash, pilandering, intern stalking, lying piece of scum Clinton, and that thing that he calls his wife, too.

 

Now it's the Dems turn to hate the president.

Though I don't like it, I gotta go with Bush. When you break the electoral college down, things still look much more favorable from his position, neverminding that he's had a terrible few weeks.

 

 

[crossing my fingers that things turn out otherwise]

591829[/snapback]

 

Ohio and Florida are still tossups and could go either way. Pennsylvania is sliding Kerry. All the tossup midwest states are too except Wisconsin. Im not sure where this comes from?

 

www.race2004.net. Click the states for polls within them. A lot of them are within the margin of error.

I think this race will depend on first-time voters and young voters. Polls are saying about 50%-55% of college students say they will be voting and another 5% say they are thinking about it. I heard it on NPR and too lazy to try and find an article. Of course numbers like these show a big boost in college student intrest and I think the race will depend on that demographic. I think people who voted for Gore in 2000 will vote for Kerry and those who voted for Bush will still vote Bush, generally. I don't think many people changed sides. So I think thise whole election hinges on new voters.

591840[/snapback]

 

You'd be very surprised.

I think this race will depend on first-time voters and young voters.? Polls are saying about 50%-55% of college students say they will be voting and another 5% say they are thinking about it.? I heard it on NPR and too lazy to try and find an article.? Of course numbers like these show a big boost in college student intrest and I think the race will depend on that demographic.? I think people who voted for Gore in 2000? will vote for Kerry and those who voted for Bush will still vote Bush, generally.? I don't think many people changed sides.? So I think thise whole election hinges on new voters.

591840[/snapback]

 

You'd be very surprised.

592482[/snapback]

 

We hear this mantra every four years, especially from the DNC. Oh, the young are really mobilized this time and are going to vote in record numbers. So are the minorities, etc....

 

If any of this were even remotely true the Dems would never lose a race for president. Here's a hint, the poor and young don't vote en masse. I'd have an easier time beleiving them if they said the women's vote was really going to come out en masse for an 1800's election.

Well, a large chunk of the folks I know voted for Bush in 2000 are dissatisfied with him and are changing their vote to Kerry/Edwards.

 

I know I've thought about it, but am going with Bush.

I think this race will depend on first-time voters and young voters.? Polls are saying about 50%-55% of college students say they will be voting and another 5% say they are thinking about it.? I heard it on NPR and too lazy to try and find an article.? Of course numbers like these show a big boost in college student intrest and I think the race will depend on that demographic.? I think people who voted for Gore in 2000? will vote for Kerry and those who voted for Bush will still vote Bush, generally.? I don't think many people changed sides.? So I think thise whole election hinges on new voters.

591840[/snapback]

 

You'd be very surprised.

592482[/snapback]

 

We hear this mantra every four years, especially from the DNC. Oh, the young are really mobilized this time and are going to vote in record numbers. So are the minorities, etc....

 

If any of this were even remotely true the Dems would never lose a race for president. Here's a hint, the poor and young don't vote en masse. I'd have an easier time beleiving them if they said the women's vote was really going to come out en masse for an 1800's election.

592491[/snapback]

 

The reason Bush had a good enough lead over Gore by many pundits going into Nov 2nd 2000 was that a lot of people predicted blacks would come out around 12%. John Zogby predicted they would be around 18% and because of this, Gore would win the popular vote. Zogby was right.

 

Its not necessarily an issue of making a massive different but rather whether it is good enough to be the difference. As you attest, minorities and students dont vote en masse. So they have more room for growth than say conservative Republicans. If this thing is tied with both sides maximizing their base in polarization, these underpreforming groups and their slight pickup could be key.

I think this race will depend on first-time voters and young voters.? Polls are saying about 50%-55% of college students say they will be voting and another 5% say they are thinking about it.? I heard it on NPR and too lazy to try and find an article.? Of course numbers like these show a big boost in college student intrest and I think the race will depend on that demographic.? I think people who voted for Gore in 2000? will vote for Kerry and those who voted for Bush will still vote Bush, generally.? I don't think many people changed sides.? So I think thise whole election hinges on new voters.

591840[/snapback]

 

You'd be very surprised.

592482[/snapback]

 

We hear this mantra every four years, especially from the DNC. Oh, the young are really mobilized this time and are going to vote in record numbers. So are the minorities, etc....

 

If any of this were even remotely true the Dems would never lose a race for president. Here's a hint, the poor and young don't vote en masse. I'd have an easier time beleiving them if they said the women's vote was really going to come out en masse for an 1800's election.

592491[/snapback]

 

The reason Bush had a good enough lead over Gore by many pundits going into Nov 2nd 2000 was that a lot of people predicted blacks would come out around 12%. John Zogby predicted they would be around 18% and because of this, Gore would win the popular vote. Zogby was right.

 

Its not necessarily an issue of making a massive different but rather whether it is good enough to be the difference. As you attest, minorities and students dont vote en masse. So they have more room for growth than say conservative Republicans. If this thing is tied with both sides maximizing their base in polarization, these underpreforming groups and their slight pickup could be key.

592505[/snapback]

 

I'll give you your point as valid since you saw mine in the same light.

Florida will be Bush.

 

Iowa is dead even.. and I mean dead even.

 

Minnesota and Ohio are very very close.

A big part of me is starting to think that I shouldn't care who wins as long as there is a clear winner.

 

I'm thinking the damage/benefit (depending upon your political slant) of either candidate winning pales in comparison to the damage of another questionable election.

 

I'm no wild eyed conspiracist, nor a wacked-out political naysayer, but sometimes I shudder when I think about how close this (or any democracy) is to at least partial collapse should things get a little wild on election night.

Some say that whoever loses will see their party shaken up badly. Could the next four years mark a turning point in US history?

9/11 was the absolute turning point but the aftermath is still undetermined...some of it at least.