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Miami-Dade county poll looks real good for Kerry


Flying_Mollusk
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Presidential poll may track big changes in Dade

 

 

If the latest Miami Herald poll is correct, the road to the White House no longer runs exclusively through Little Havana, it now winds its way through the streets of Wynwood and Allapattah and Homestead.

 

And if that's true, President Bush is in trouble.

 

The Herald poll shows Sen. John Kerry winning Miami-Dade County with 54.3 percent of the vote to 41.5 for Bush. Four percent are undecided.

 

Splitting those undecided voters down the middle, Kerry goes to 56 percent, Bush to 43 and Ralph Nader will end up with less than 1 percent.

 

If Kerry wins Miami-Dade County 56 to 43, then the likelihood of him winning Florida is very high. Here's why:

 

In 2000, Al Gore beat Bush by almost 40,000 votes in Miami-Dade County.

 

BIG NUMBERS

 

According to the Herald poll, done by Zogby International, Kerry is positioned to win Miami-Dade by anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 votes.

 

A margin that large in Florida's most populous county would be hard for Bush to make up across the rest of the state.

 

Now I realize if the poll's margin of error were to fall in the president's favor, Kerry would beat Bush, 53 to 46 percent (instead of 56-43). But even then, because of new voters, Kerry would still walk away with 50,000 more votes than Bush.

 

But here is why the Herald poll rings true.

 

Between 2000 and 2004, the split between Democrats and Republican is virtually the same in almost every category.

 

THE CUBAN-AMERICAN VOTE

 

In 2000, an overwhelming majority of Cuban Americans went to Bush and the latest Herald poll shows the same thing happening again.

 

In 2000, the Jewish and black votes went overwhelmingly for Gore and the latest poll has them doing the same for Kerry. Among Anglos, Kerry is ahead, but Bush has tightened the gap.

 

The one group that is radically different -- and it is why the poll makes sense -- is a shift among non-Cuban Hispanics, who are backing Kerry almost two-to-one.

 

Overall, Hispanics -- both Cubans and non-Cubans -- still support Bush, according to the Herald poll, with 62 percent saying they will vote for the president and 35 percent saying they will vote for Kerry.

 

DEMOCRATS IMPROVE

 

Nevertheless, that is a tremendous improvement for the Democrats over 2000, when 73 percent of Hispanics favored Bush and only 27 percent voted for Gore.

 

And almost all of those gains for Kerry have come from Mexicans, Salvadorans, Dominicans, Colombians and Puerto Ricans among others. Many of whom are going to be voting for the first time.

 

The raw numbers: In 2000, Bush won among all Hispanics by 135,000 votes. Based on the Herald poll, Bush's lead among Hispanics in 2004 will be closer to 95,000 votes.

 

Narrowing that gap by 40,000 votes between 2000 and 2004 is a huge accomplishment for Democrats and shows the very real impact voter registration groups such as Mi Familia are having on this year's election. In six months, Mi Familia registered 66,000 new voters in Florida, many of them here in Miami-Dade and most of them non-Cuban Hispanics.

 

The New Democrat Network, the Service Employees International Union and the Environmental Action Fund, are spending $1.6 million on ads directed at Hispanic voters, encouraging them to vote for Kerry.

 

Indeed, this election could mark the end to the disproportionate impact that Cuban-Americans have held on presidential politics for the past 25 years.

 

It has always been assumed that if a Republican captures 80 percent of the Cuban vote, they will win Florida. This is why politicians -- both Democrats and Republicans -- have catered to this Cuban-American bloc for so long on everything from the embargo with Cuba to travel and trade with the island to the wet foot/dry foot policy.

 

But in this election, President Bush could get 82 percent of the Cuban vote and still lose because of the inroads Democrats made with other Hispanics.

 

If that happens it will forever alter the perceived importance of Cuban-Americans voters.

 

 

 

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/...de/10033111.htm

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I think the assumption of Cuban-Americans voting strictly Republican is fading as well.? As time goes by, the newer generations will start to even out a little more & replace the old hardliners who always voted Republican.

603568[/snapback]

 

Actually right now the cuban-american vote in dade according to most polls is at an average of 75-25 in favor of bush, with the 2000 election being 77-23

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I think the assumption of Cuban-Americans voting strictly Republican is fading as well.? As time goes by, the newer generations will start to even out a little more & replace the old hardliners who always voted Republican.

603568[/snapback]

 

Actually right now the cuban-american vote in dade according to most polls is at an average of 75-25 in favor of bush, with the 2000 election being 77-23

603715[/snapback]

 

 

The article suggests its the slight change among Cuban Americans. But the big boost for Kerry seems to be all the newer immigrant non-Cuban hispanic groups .

 

 

I am not surprised. Didn't Gore win in Dade in 2000? At least according to a graph I saw recently said he did.

 

He did win Dade but he won it by around 40,000 votes. Add that 40k difference to the wins in Palm Beach and other dem counties. But then Bush cuts into that with every other county in the state which are much smaller but all together are able to offset. This artice is suggesting that the polls show Kerry winning it by 90-100k which makes it virtually impossible for Bush to offset with the other parts of the state. Even if one gives Bush the benefit of the margin of error, its sitll 50k. That 10k could be huge in an already tight state.

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Apparently, this is where those dems are:

 

the road to the White House no longer runs exclusively through Little Havana, it now winds its way through the streets of Wynwood and Allapattah and Homestead.

 

:thumbup

603738[/snapback]

 

Damm it! Homestead is too far for me.... Where the hell is Allapattah??? :blink:

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Apparently, this is where those dems are:

 

the road to the White House no longer runs exclusively through Little Havana, it now winds its way through the streets of Wynwood and Allapattah and Homestead.

 

:thumbup

603738[/snapback]

 

Damm it! Homestead is too far for me.... Where the hell is Allapattah??? :blink:

603740[/snapback]

Near the Airport around NW 22nd Ave and NW 17th Ave, North of the Airport Expressway...

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Hispanics have some interesting views on politics. When I was NYC this summer I met Hispanics from all sorts of different countries and each one of them seemed to hold a different take on things. On a cab ride from Yonkers to Grand Central the cabbi (from Mexico) talked about how Bush was the devil (literally) and that evil spirits told him things. He gave me the impression that if I supported Bush that he would throw me out of the cab! Luckily I agreed with him (that Bush is bad, not the devil part :) ) and no bodily harm came my way. I then befriended some younger people at a bar around Times Square and the first question I was asked (after I said I was from FL) is if I was a Bush supporter. After I replied I was not they said good because if I was they woulda kicked me out of the bar! Then I met some other people from Puerto Rico who told me that the Democrats had a great conspiracy to turn the US into a communist state and that if I voted for Kerry the world would end. They also told me that Mexicans were the laziest people on earth. Needless to say the people of NYC are entertaining as hell.

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One of the stupidest things ever done in the history of the world was creating this nebulous ethnic group known as 'hispanics'. I have my arguments about the need for grouping in general but i will not go into those. The problem is hispanics from nicaragua and peru are a different ethnic group. Same as the ones from cuba comapred to those in argentina. The ethnic group hispanic is compromised of about 100 different ethnic groups. Same way 'white' or 'caucasion' is used to refer to germans, americans, brits, frenchies, and even italian. These groupings are stupid, especially the hispanics one

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I've been wondering about this. If people feel it's OK to call African-Americans "black" then why do these same people refer to Latinos as Hispanics or Latinos and not brown people? And I never hear anyone referring to an Asian as a "yellow" person. Just curious.

603849[/snapback]

 

IMO all that stuff is stupid, im hispanic but im not brown, im as white as some 'whites'. In my opinion all of these groupings add to the culture of inequality and racism. Why cant everyone living in the US (who is a citizen or resident) just be referred to as an American or better yet as an individual. Over all else John johnson is not black, nor american he is John Johnson

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I've been wondering about this. If people feel it's OK to call African-Americans "black" then why do these same people refer to Latinos as Hispanics or Latinos and not brown people? And I never hear anyone referring to an Asian as a "yellow" person. Just curious.

603849[/snapback]

 

Because not all of us are brown or tan. My mom is blonde and has light eyes and she's Cuban.

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that poll sucks.

 

cuban american vote will be split 60 - 40 this election, 70 - 30 at worst.

 

lots of cubans upset by bush's new laws on cuba.

 

also, the 77 % they got in 2000 was heavily influenced by elian, not such an influence this time around.

603857[/snapback]

 

this isnt accurate b/c the problem is a lot of the cubans that are upset with the travel laws are not citizens they're residents and dont vote anyway. Most eligible cuban voters will still vote bush, so still 70-30 at worst

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that poll sucks.

 

cuban american vote will be split 60 - 40 this election, 70 - 30 at worst.

 

lots of cubans upset by bush's new laws on cuba.

 

also, the 77 % they got in 2000 was heavily influenced by elian, not such an influence this time around.

603857[/snapback]

 

this isnt accurate b/c the problem is a lot of the cubans that are upset with the travel laws are not citizens they're residents and dont vote anyway. Most eligible cuban voters will still vote bush, so still 70-30 at worst

603858[/snapback]

 

disagree on that one.

 

 

a great deal of the cubans that disagree with the laws came between el mariel (1980) and los balseros (1994) so we are talking about people who have lived in this country for at least 10 years, and many of them didn't care about voting before, but are really upset now.

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that poll sucks.

 

cuban american vote will be split 60 - 40 this election, 70 - 30 at worst.

 

lots of cubans upset by bush's new laws on cuba.

 

also, the 77 % they got in 2000 was heavily influenced by elian, not such an influence this time around.

603857[/snapback]

 

this isnt accurate b/c the problem is a lot of the cubans that are upset with the travel laws are not citizens they're residents and dont vote anyway. Most eligible cuban voters will still vote bush, so still 70-30 at worst

603858[/snapback]

 

disagree on that one.

 

 

a great deal of the cubans that disagree with the laws came between el mariel (1980) and los balseros (1994) so we are talking about people who have lived in this country for at least 10 years, and many of them didn't care about voting before, but are really upset now.

603860[/snapback]

 

 

The thing is i dont think most of the marielitos are upset by this law, if anything maybe some of the balseros are and some of the 21st century arrivals.

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that poll sucks.

 

cuban american vote will be split 60 - 40 this election, 70 - 30 at worst.

 

lots of cubans upset by bush's new laws on cuba.

 

also, the 77 % they got in 2000 was heavily influenced by elian, not such an influence this time around.

603857[/snapback]

 

this isnt accurate b/c the problem is a lot of the cubans that are upset with the travel laws are not citizens they're residents and dont vote anyway. Most eligible cuban voters will still vote bush, so still 70-30 at worst

603858[/snapback]

 

disagree on that one.

 

 

a great deal of the cubans that disagree with the laws came between el mariel (1980) and los balseros (1994) so we are talking about people who have lived in this country for at least 10 years, and many of them didn't care about voting before, but are really upset now.

603860[/snapback]

 

 

The thing is i dont think most of the marielitos are upset by this law, if anything maybe some of the balseros are and some of the 21st century arrivals.

603868[/snapback]

 

 

will see on election day. but i'm afraid i'm right.

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that poll sucks.

 

cuban american vote will be split 60 - 40 this election, 70 - 30 at worst.

 

lots of cubans upset by bush's new laws on cuba.

 

also, the 77 % they got in 2000 was heavily influenced by elian, not such an influence this time around.

603857[/snapback]

 

this isnt accurate b/c the problem is a lot of the cubans that are upset with the travel laws are not citizens they're residents and dont vote anyway. Most eligible cuban voters will still vote bush, so still 70-30 at worst

603858[/snapback]

 

disagree on that one.

 

 

a great deal of the cubans that disagree with the laws came between el mariel (1980) and los balseros (1994) so we are talking about people who have lived in this country for at least 10 years, and many of them didn't care about voting before, but are really upset now.

603860[/snapback]

 

 

The thing is i dont think most of the marielitos are upset by this law, if anything maybe some of the balseros are and some of the 21st century arrivals.

603868[/snapback]

 

 

will see on election day. but i'm afraid i'm right.

603872[/snapback]

 

lets hope ur wrong

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The article suggests its the slight change among Cuban Americans. But the big boost for Kerry seems to be all the newer immigrant non-Cuban hispanic groups .

 

 

This isn't any different from the way it has always been. The only Hispanic group that is staunchly Republican in this country are the Cubans. All others are largely Democrats.

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