I was asking some very intelligent baseball guys what they thought of the trade...Ill post more of their responses as they came in...Most of them think we were robbed hardcore.

 

Heres my post:

Posted 2:28 p.m., July 12, 2003 (#21) - Irish Marlin

 

I was hoping we would go after Benitez instead of Urbina because the deal would have cost us 2-3 marginal pitching prospects. This deal doesn't hurt the Marlins in the farm because we were deep at 1B with Stokes and Tom Merkle tearing up A ball. Remember Stokes had 40 homers last season. Hate to see Snare go because hes a lefty, but I guess he was expendable because we have Redman and D Will already in the rotation. Maybe he could have become a solid innings eater out of the pen. This move has more PR implications then on the field help I agree, but almost any average to above average reliever would have bolstered our pen....I just wish we could have picked someone less "known" and someone with more talent for what we gave up. And do we get 2 first rounders or 1 when Urbina walks in the off-season?

 

The Responses:

Posted 3:05 p.m., July 12, 2003 (#24) - Raleigh Horn

 

Irish Marlin--you'll get 2 picks if the Marlins offer him arbitration, which they almost assuredly won't. Because if they do, Urbina would likely accept and take $7.5 million weewee all the way to the bank.

 

 

Posted 5:41 p.m., July 12, 2003 (#25) - Tom N

According to BPro, Nunez and Neal have double handedly sunk the Marlins' bullpen this year. Phelps and Looper have been good. Borland seems as if he can potentially contribute. Alvarez has nice stats and was making a contribution before getting sent down. Levrault did well, really only having 2 bad outings. The fact that in one of those bad outings he gave up 6 runs in three innings to the Red Sox during the 25-8 game really shouldn't be held against him too much. Almanza is left handed. This bullpen is not great, but after excising Neal and Nunez, it's not the team's greates weakness.

 

The Marlins could really use a lefthanded power bat to give balance to a right handed lineup. The Marlins hit like the Boston Red Sox against lefties while against righthanders they hit like the Milwaukee Brewers. The problem is that it's difficult to tell where to upgrade the lineup against righthanders. As switch hitters and OBP sources, Castillo and Pierre obviously stay in the lineup. Lowell is hitting righthanders pretty well and has reverse platoon splits over the last three years, although they're not showing up this year. Gomzalez's OPS is almost identical vs. righthanders. Ivan Rodriguez, Derrek Lee and Juan Encarnacion all put up OPSes near 800 vs. righties that are heavy on the SLG. Hollandsworth, as Dan so ably pointed out, is crappy. For Cabrera, as impressive as the 463 SLG on a 204 BA is, that BA drags him down to a 281 OBP. Carl Everett's 360\600 vs. righhanded pitchers would give Florida a little balance to their lineup.

 

 

Posted 7:25 p.m., July 12, 2003 (#27) - Mike Emeigh (e-mail)

I agree with the general consensus that this deal is a long-term steal for the Rangers. I've seen all three players that the Marlins gave up on a number of occasions this year, and every one of them is IMO better than 50-50 to have a good major league career. The scary thing is that Gonzalez might be the player who is "least" likely to make waves in the majors.

 

Gonzalez reminds me a lot more of Mark Grace than of Rafael Palmeiro. He has a smooth stroke and takes a lot of pitches the other way; rarely does he turn on a ball and drive it. I think he's much more likely to be a high average/OBP guy who hits 15-20 HRs a season than he is to develop 30-35 HR power as did Palmeiro.

 

Smith reminds me a lot of Tony Gwynn in his approach at the plate. He attacks the ball with a vengenace, and can deliver line drives to any part of the park - he hits almost everything hard, and doesn't miss very often. I don't think he'll be as good as Gwynn was, but that's the type of hitter that I think he's likely to be.

 

Snare doesn't have a plus fastball, but his offspeed and (especially) his breaking stuff is outstanding, and he's demonstrated the ability to hold the other team down when he doesn't have his best stuff. On the 4th of July he faced Orlando, and was falling behind hitters all night, missing a lot with his curve, and throwing a lot of pitches. Yet he allowed only five hits, fanned eight, didn't walk anyone - and lost 1-0 on a solo HR in the 7th, his last inning. I didn't have a pitch count, but I'd guess he was around 120 pitches. I don't think he's a front-of-the-rotation guy, but I think he'll be a solid #3-#4 starter for years to come.

 

 

Posted 11:32 a.m., July 12, 2003 (#17) - Scott

If you want to be a cynic, U is a relatively cheap way for the Marlins to say to the fans "look, we added a star - the AL saves leader! we're making a run for it!" His annual salary is $6m; he has just under half of that left to be paid (maybe $2.8m?); and the Rangers are picking up part of it. If the Marlins are paying $1.4m for the rest of U2003, maybe they figure that's a reasonable price to pay to convince everyone they're in a pennant race.

 

And I thought Randomness Next to Godliness was only the motto of Dan O'Dowd.

Urbina's a B grade closer and that's not going to propel the Marlins to the front of the wild card race; it's not the 4 games back that makes it hard but the 4 teams they have to jump over to make the playoffs. And in the closer role, I'm not sure that Urbina's a better choice than Looper anymore - it's not 1998.

 

Gonzalez is though to be the player with star potential, the other two being likely future role players. Hitting .216 with 1 homer in 6 weeks in Albuquerque is truly hideous, but Gonzalez still has time and the Rangers won't need to rush him up. But even if they're not highly considered, Snare and Smith have shown flashes at times.

 

Easy thumbs-up for the Rangers on this one. I'll give John Hart a lot of credit for once - he's usually on the other side in trades like this.

 

I won't mention that Kevin Millar has been 2 wins or so better than Todd Hollandsworth this year, half the current difference in the wild card race. Nope, not a word.

 

Posted 11:43 p.m., July 11, 2003 (#1) - Darren

This trade is just brutal. As you note, Gonzalez does not need to be successful at AAA yet to be a very good prospect. He's 21 this year, and I think it would do him some good to really have some sustained success at a level right now.

 

Smith looks like he could be a averagish player or more if things break right. Same for Snare.

I wonder if they'll throw Snare in the rotation to see if he sticks.

 

 

 

Posted 7:29 p.m., July 12, 2003 (#28) - Mike Emeigh (e-mail)

Smith did break the hamate bone in his hand earlier this year, and missed about a month and a half. All of the games I saw him, with the exception of one, were after the injury, and he was smoking the ball each time, so I suspect he's pretty well healed.

 

 

 

 

Pretty interesting stuff...seems we might not get any picks at all because hes arbitration eligible...only way we get anything for him is if we fall out and trade him to a contender. Some of these guys are scouts, so you cant jsut right off their opinions on the trade.

Intresting, I dont think the giving up Adrian Gonzalez hurted us we already have Stokes....I hope Urbina turns out well because we were really suppose to go after Benitez.

I hope Urbina turns out well because we were really suppose to go after Benitez.

Actually we were really supposed to go after Urbina before we were supposed to get Benitez...

Intresting, I dont think the giving up Adrian Gonzalez hurted us we already have Stokes....I hope Urbina turns out well because we were really suppose to go after Benitez.

yup like u metion we have alot of future 1B in the farm ...

 

 

BTW : Urbina was on the Marlins mind b-4 Benitez

Now we have a nice combo like Houston.

I fail to see how Urbina is a 'B grade' reliever. he had 40 plus saves 2 times since 1999 (1999, 2002. 2000 was injured, 2001 was traded from Mon to Bos, his role changed then to setup man as well.) Urbina was certainly on pace to get 40+ saves this year - with the Rangers! So that could have been 3 seasons of 40+ with 3 different teams...I fail to see how this guy is not worth acquiring.

 

The other thing these opinions dont seem to grasp is that we have killed any flexibility in dealing Urbina or Benitez to other teams in 3 team deals. We also blocked the acquisition of Urbina to one of our 4 competitors in the WC race. Not to mention that the Yankees had targeted Urbina, which shows you this guy is worth going after.

 

Also, we dealt away depth in our farm system for a player to win now with. Our bullpen is much, much better now than it was. We only had to deal 3 marginal prospects. Sure, Gonzalez is still young and a former first rounder, but he does not project to be all that great when he does finally arrive - and we can always get a line-drive hitting 1B if A Gon does pan out. Stokes has more upside than A Gon, and I think A Gon's best value was in bait for a trade.

 

And finally, what is with this obsession over a left handed power hitter?! There really isnt any available!. Our hitting is markedly weaker against righties (.292 vs. lefties, .254 vs. righties) so I undertand why we need a lefty power hitter. But it seems like everyone wants a lefty power hitter, almost as much as they want pitching. We needed to fill both holes, and a left handed power hitter is going to have about as much effect on a game as Urbina would if you consider amount of ABs vs. appearances.

Posted 11:51 p.m., July 12, 2003 (#30) - Jason

From what I've read, it seems the Marlins were almost desperate to trade Gonzalez. Clearly they feel Jason Stokes is the long term answer at first base. This begs the question of why were the Marlins so desperate to make a trade? A fair number of teams would keep their depth until such a time as they received fair market value. The only fair-hearted conclusion is that the Marlins felt that Gonzalez' value was at his highest now, that he was never going to be a major league quality player. Whether this assessment is true remains to be seen, as on the surface it seems they did not get good value for him.

 

The darker side of this is that Jeffrey Loria is up to his old Angel of Death antics. Remember Loria and Co. signed Lee Stevens and Graeme Lloyd in 2000, while trading for Hideki Irabu in an attempt to "invest in the team to win now" at the cost of Ted Lilly and Brad Fullmer - superior players all around. This was followed by a couple of losing seasons in which Loria basically packed it in, saying "Well, we tried and received no support, so what's the use in trying?"

 

Personally, I doubt this is the case, preferring to think that it's merely a misguided effort to shore up a team whose greatest perceived weakness is it's bully. But, the food for thought is there, and it's worth noting that the man in charge has a history of this sort of thing.

Listening to WWCN-AM/Miracle Radio I heard the game as the Hammerheads played the Miracle, and I believe that Stokes had the big hit to tie the game.

Cool...I read somewhere the game was suspended...so they are finishing the game you are listening to and then starting today's game...

Hammerheads beat Miracle 6-5 I believe in extras. Today's game coming up, let me find the online radio link for those interested.

Fort Myers Miracle Listen Live Link

http://www.miraclebaseball.com

 

Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

"invest in the team to win now" at the cost of Ted Lilly and Brad Fullmer - superior players all around.

HA!!!!!!

 

:w00t

Thanks for link..

oops