In a strange sort of way, Mike Lowell is giving Derrick Lee one last chance to prove he belongs on the Florida Marlins.

 

I've come to the conclusion that the reason Lee hasn't been traded yet is the front office, no doubt monitoring Lowell's injury on a daily basis, have concluded they can't risk losing both Lowell and Lee's bat simultaneously.

 

My guess is they're hoping Lee can step it up and start hitting as he's historically done in the 2nd half. He won't be traded, assuming he's traded at all, until Mike returns and is 100% or the team falls out of contention.

 

Surely the FO would have liked to have moved Lee by now but an injured Mike Lowell and a slumping Gonzo have given him a chance to resurrect himself. Last night's homerun was only his second since April at PPS. Step it up or step away, those are his choices.

 

For the FO its a win/win or at least making the best of a bad (Lowell) situation. If he does well in the next couple of weeks his trade value goes through the roof, if he doesn't it will smooth the way for trading him now and not having to face arbitration with him for 2004. It's inconceivable to me that the Marlins would ever decline arbitration and set him free without substantial compensation.

 

I still believe, given a healthy Lowell, Lee is gone by July 31st. Barring intervention by McKeon on his behalf with the FO, Lee, who has more trade value potential for The Fish than any other player save Brad Penny, looks to be the first guy moved to upgrade the club for a wildcard run.

 

It's inconceivable they would trade away starting pitching right now. Today's game is vital for the Marlins. Things are starting to click. Everyone will be watching to see if Brad can bring some of that fire (and the curveball) we saw in his last appearance to this one.

 

But the big thing to watch for today and Sunday is how well Derrick Lee performs when the team needs his bat the most. The next two days. That's what he has, the next two days.

 

Maybe Lee will step it up at the plate. I sure hope so.

that's all well & good Marlins2003, but it's arguable who they can trade Lee for that will actually upgrade the team. Say what you will about Lee (and I often do) but he does usually have a hot 2nd half. And the guy does have a lot of power. Does a trade for Conine (for example) really upgrade the team? It would work for a lot of reasons, but as far as giving the team a better shot for the wild card, tough to say. He does look like he might be starting to heat up. If so I'd be content with them playing through the stretch with him & trying to deal him in the offseason if needed.

Good perspective. Also, agreed with HotCorner response. What (who?) do we need for Lee to make a run for it? Lee is entering his traditional second-half rally and is worth (what?) a run a game defensively? Sad about this whole Spooney situation. We were counting on him.

i agree HC

For one, Marlins2003 you do know we can trade D-Lee AFTER this season BEFORE we have to offer arbitration, correct? We still "own" the rights to him. And if anyone will be traded to make a run it would probably be Castillo, although I see some irony in trading your best players to make a run. That won't happen.

Good perspective. Also, agreed with HotCorner response. What (who?) do we need for Lee to make a run for it? Lee is entering his traditional second-half rally and is worth (what?) a run a game defensively? Sad about this whole Spooney situation. We were counting on him.

Some of what you and Hot say I agree with completely, some I don't.

 

What do we need? I say pitching, pitching and more pitching. That's what pennant races and the playoffs rely on, pitching. Trading a Penny for another starter, that's a lateral move.

 

There's no guarantees in making a trade, who knows what will befall us ten minutes from now, nevermind in September? You trade from your strengths, thats how we got Mark Redman, Dave had to trade his best pitcher to get what he needed to start and turn the club around. Derrick Lee, especially a "hot" Derrick Lee, is a very marketable commodity to a team (hopefully in the AL) looking to shake things up at their end.

 

I'm not going to bore you with my mega-deal trade with the Orioles theory. You all know it. It's about pitching first and Conine playing first second. Not Ponson but Johnson.

 

Do I think Lee's defense is worth a run a game? No. Is he a gem at first? Yes. Does he traditionally heat up in the second half? Yes. Can the Marlins afford a $7 million arbitration award for 2004? No. Do you want to break up your middle infield guys who turn so many doubleplays? Absolutely not. Do you want to trade a Brad Penny in a lateral move? No. Who's left of value? Derrick Lee.

i truly think DLee saves atleast 1 run a game

 

-this coming from a dlee hater

Marlins2003, I don't see at all why you would want to trade Lee, maybe our hottest second half player, when we A) are in a playoff hunt B) don't have to! We can always wait until after the season to trade Lee. We would trade him to another team, and they would offer him arbitration.

 

Do you see?

i truly think DLee saves atleast 1 run a game

 

-this coming from a dlee hater

I don't hate the guy, actually its the opposite. But the bottomline is we will need to clear his salary before next season and I think (and you are totally within your rights to disagree or have a different perspective) now is the time. Last time I checked Admin Beinfest hasn't called seeking my advice so I'm just one more fan speculating, trying to connect the dots.

 

As for saving a run a game, I might be more agreeable to a run a week. I'd give you 25 runs a year without thinking twice but to say he saves 162 runs a year is just (in my mind) silly. It's a long, long way from first to home, alot of things can happen to a runner.

Marlins2003, why break up the team when you don't have to? If we trade Lee it basically screws us and any chance at the playoffs. We want to trade FOR players, not trade them AWAY, remember? And for the third time, we can still trade him in the off-season, before we have to offer him arbitration, so the team getting him has to offer it to him...

Marlins2003, why break up the team when you don't have to? If we trade Lee it basically screws us and any chance at the playoffs. We want to trade FOR players, not trade them AWAY, remember? And for the third time, we can still trade him in the off-season, before we have to offer him arbitration, so the team getting him has to offer it to him...

"Break up the team"?

 

Moving one starting player to pick up pitching in the heat of a wildcard race is hardly breaking up the team. In fact I believe he's the one guy we can trade and come out ahead by trading. But again, your opinion is just as valid as mine, I accept that.

 

As for trading him now versus in the post-season, I think his value is greater now, with a season and half remaining, than one season remaining. It has to blending his salary for 2003 with 2004, making next years price more palatable. It also gives the other team a longer chance to determine whether to sign him longterm or not.

 

I think the Marlins can win without Derrick Lee, you don't. If they keep him for the entire season and we're in the playoffs, like you, I'm one happy guy. If they trade him and get some more pitching that takes us to the same place, I'm sure you'd agree it was a good deal.

 

There's plenty of room here for good ideas, yours mine and everyone elses. That's what makes this such a great message board.

Do we really need more pitching, being one of the best pitching teams in baseball? And if we do, at the expense of our second best power hitter, now our best seeeing that Lowell is out? I don't think so. We have a great rotation. We have a solid enough bullpen, and a very good one when Spooney comes back. And I don't think his value will decrease if we wait 'till the off-season to trade him, seeing that he's a numbers player and in the off-season that's all teams really look at when acquiring players-- their numbers. Lee will have great numbers at the end of the season, if anything increasing his value.

I guess at this point we should agree to disagree.

 

I think the part of my post concerning not knowing what may happen down the line is kinda being glossed over. Who knows if Josh can pitch every five days? Who knows who might slip and twist an ankle in their tv room? You really want Tejara starting an important game in September?

 

Stockpiling pitching is critically important for contenders (and we are one !!!) this time of year.

 

As for Lee's value, it is at its highest RIGHT NOW. Like an expiring stock option, the days before he can declare for free agency are declining. His relative value as a hitter and defensive first baseman have to increase faster than his limited time before free agency erodes his value for him to be worth more in the offseason than he is now. Right now he has approximately 235 games games before free agency, at the end of the season that number is down to 162. This is just Economics 101.

I just have one question. How come you believe we should trade DLee now, and not Luis Castillo, who becomes a free agent at the end of the season? I mean, you talk about DLee's trade value...Castillo's trade value becomes nil once July 31st rolls around.

maybe because he thinks we may resign Luis?

maybe because he thinks we may resign Luis?

 

So we should keep Castillo, who may (or may not) resign in the offseason, but trade Lee now, even though there's just about a 100% chance he can be traded in the offseason?

im not arguing with you here, i was just thinking of reason why he would write that...

 

in fact, i dont want to breakup the infield

I just have one question. How come you believe we should trade DLee now, and not Luis Castillo, who becomes a free agent at the end of the season? I mean, you talk about DLee's trade value...Castillo's trade value becomes nil once July 31st rolls around.

Well yes, you and Ramp have it right, as far as what I'm thinking. I assume that most regs here know my thnking on specific players, maybe I'm assuming too much. Here goes:

 

1. Luis IS a free agent next year to be sure. Luis is a perrenial .300 hitter, a great guy to have in the #2 spot, a veteran, but a guy who has slowed since his hip surgery. His whole family, mother, relatives, etc. live here.

 

2. His marketability has decreased with his absense of speed.

 

3. I think the Marlins sign him for about $5.5 per for two years. Remember Florida has no state income taxes so they have a leg up over other teams in state that do.

 

4. The last thing the Marlins want to do is break up their doubleplay combo during a playoff run. Up the middle, Pudge, Gonzo and Luis, we are pretty strong. You don't mess with success.

 

That's my Castillo theory. And I still think D Lee is the one guy you can afford to trade that gives you the oportunity to upgrade the club.

 

Who knows? I'm just presenting my thoughts. Take them or leave them, its up to you.