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Cliff-Notes on the AJ Saga


TSwift25
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OK, I've been actively searching and gathering all the information I can, so for anyone not wanting to wade knee deep in all that's on here, here's the low-down, with some potentially new info:

 

1) According to just about every major source, the Marlins-O's deal is dead, and the only way it appears it'll be rescued is if Angelos decides to take on Lowell's deal. Without that, the O's have no better than the third best offer on the table for AJ.

 

2) The newest "frontrunner" is a three way with the Red Sox and Twins...however, the Red Sox vehemently deny anything to do with this, there is a rumor that won't go away about Mueller and Millar going to Minnesota, but that one to one swap is only focused on bringing Romero to Boston, so that has little to nothing to do with the Marlins, at least for the moment.

 

3) According to Jayson Stark, the Marlins really like the package that the White Sox have put together, however, it remains to be seen if the White Sox will simply take AJ on as a rent a player. Bottom line, don't expect the White Sox to make a hard push for AJ if Schmidt becomes available because Schmidt is under contract for '06.

 

Finally, if you want to listen to a few of the north east guys like Olney and Stark, the Marlins may end up just hanging on to AJ if they can come out of this road trip in good shape, considering they're underwhelmed by the offers out there, and the fact that AJ won't bring payroll relief in the form of shedding Lowell's contract.

 

Also, this is from a really convoluted source (so take it as only a very unsubstantiated rumor) but it appears that another reason that this has slowed to a glacial pace is that Loria and Beinfest are actually exploring AJ's signability.

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Good news. I say keep the team intact and let them get in their groove. Lowell is getting out of his slump, trading him now would be a shame because we wouldn't get anything near what he is worth. By the end of the year he'll have a much higher average, and will be worth much more in eventual trades. IMHO.

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Also, this is from a really convoluted source (so take it as only a very unsubstantiated rumor) but it appears that another reason that this has slowed to a glacial pace is that Loria and Beinfest are actually exploring AJ's signability.

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Great post up until this part. TSwift you've been adamant all season that A.J. should re-signed and the responsibility is on Loria/Beinfest to do so to the point that you continually ignore that Loria/Beinfest offered Burnett a long term deal this winter. So excuse me if I question your 'source' on this matter.

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Guest Juanky

Also, this is from a really convoluted source (so take it as only a very unsubstantiated rumor) but it appears that another reason that this has slowed to a glacial pace is that Loria and Beinfest are actually exploring AJ's signability.

And that, my friends, is the best possible deal we could make.

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Also, this is from a really convoluted source (so take it as only a very unsubstantiated rumor) but it appears that another reason that this has slowed to a glacial pace is that Loria and Beinfest are actually exploring AJ's signability.

And that, my friends, is the best possible deal we could make.

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IF, the big "if" we can sweep in SF, and both Washington and Atlantic were to fizzle this weekend, thus bringing us within 3 games of the NL East, I would agree.

 

But that's a big IF, and with the trading deadline approaching, it's move him now or let him go after the season. Once the trading deadline passes, any leverage, however small, the Marlins have with Burnett evaporates.

 

Since the chances are remote that all the pieces necessary will fall into place, I can't see how we accomplish the task, or afford him in 2006 and beyond. But the $$$ thing is not my problem as a fan, it's the FO that has to deal with that issue. If they think they can do it, I'm not adverse.

 

On the otherhand, someone has to ask the question, do you we really want AJ Burnett beyond whatever he contributes to the 2005 season? If either Vargas or Olsen (it would be too good to be true that they can both step up and immediately become front line ML starters) there may be less need for a $10 million a year, multi-year pitcher, and thusly more $$$ for other needs.

 

Gee, I guess I'm conflicted. :mischief2

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Latest info:

 

The only team that will make a trade WITHOUT signing him to an extension is the Red Sox (Blue Jays, White Sox, Tigers and Orioles remain interested, but only with an extension).

 

Fun facts regarding the Red Sox:

 

Bad blood between Henry and Loria mean that "friendly" negotiations are unlikely. Also, the whole Millar fiasco has left a bad taste with the Marlins FO regarding dealing with the Red Sox.

 

However, it appears that J.C. Romero is the Red Sox #1 target right now.

 

Oh, and RFerry, you have every right to voice an opinion, but what I'm simply presenting here is a collection of all that I've heard...sheesh.

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Guest FishFanInPA

Here's what i'm concerned about.....All this AJ s*** is preventing them from making a deal if they are actually buyers....What happens if we get back in the race and want to pick up pieces to win....who do we deal?? Where do we go???

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Here's what i'm concerned about.....All this AJ s*** is preventing them from making a deal if they are actually buyers....What happens if we get back in the race and want to pick up pieces to win....who do we deal?? Where do we go???

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Wonderful question.

 

According to Olney, the Marlins are only really dead-set on shedding Lowell's contract to retool for this year so they can shake up the roster and make a run.

 

However, assuming Lowell remains untradeable, I think our most tradeable piece is Yorman Bazardo, but he won't exactly bring a huge bounty in return...

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Guest FishFanInPA

Here's what i'm concerned about.....All this AJ s*** is preventing them from making a deal if they are actually buyers....What happens if we get back in the race and want to pick up pieces to win....who do we deal?? Where do we go???

869604[/snapback]

 

Wonderful question.

 

According to Olney, the Marlins are only really dead-set on shedding Lowell's contract to retool for this year so they can shake up the roster and make a run.

 

However, assuming Lowell remains untradeable, I think our most tradeable piece is Yorman Bazardo, but he won't exactly bring a huge bounty in return...

869615[/snapback]

 

That's ridiculous then.....We need pieces to win...

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Here's what i'm concerned about.....All this AJ s*** is preventing them from making a deal if they are actually buyers....What happens if we get back in the race and want to pick up pieces to win....who do we deal?? Where do we go???

869604[/snapback]

 

Wonderful question.

 

According to Olney, the Marlins are only really dead-set on shedding Lowell's contract to retool for this year so they can shake up the roster and make a run.

 

However, assuming Lowell remains untradeable, I think our most tradeable piece is Yorman Bazardo, but he won't exactly bring a huge bounty in return...

869615[/snapback]

 

That's ridiculous then.....We need pieces to win...

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Problem is, it's a seller's market, and the fact that there are so many teams "on the fence" make it difficult. Look, in a lot of ways, teams in our position are letting the market dictate whether they're "in" or "out." The Phillies will give up Wagner if they're overwhelmed, same with the Astros with Pettitte, and just about any team in the NL West aside from the Padres have no untouchables on their 25 man rosters if the offer's right, problem is, there aren't any offers, or the asking price for some desireable pieces is unrealistically high.

 

The other problem is that there hasn't been a big deal to go through yet other than the Urbina trade, and that was only dealing with players on the major league roster, and it was a deal of need. Until the market sets itself, there won't be any deal made, and the Marlins certainly don't want to make the first deal when AJ is the biggest name being thrown around.

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You know, sooooo many people just ASSUME that the Marlins are gonna trade AJ. I really feel strongly that IF the Marlins start to play well and the Nats continue to fall, a very likely scenario with us playing the sub-.500 Giants, the Marlins WON'T trade Aj. The only reason why the Marlins are considering trading AJ is because they are unsure of the team's future this season. Sure it is VERY unlikely that the Marlins will be able to re-sign AJ, but the Fish are only gonna give away AJ if they feel they don't have a legitimate chance at going to the post season.

 

I guess my point is this, if the Marlins were 15 games over .500 and had a good lead in the NL East, which is where they should be, they wouldn't think at all about trading AJ because he would help in the post season. If the Marlins start a 6-7 game winning streak in the next couple of series and start to make a push, I wouldn't be surprised if AJ finishes this season in Teal.

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but what I'm simply presenting here is a collection of all that I've heard...sheesh.

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It's that time of the year that we have to be a little more skeptical about what we here. You have to admit your post is highly peculiar since it draws on the popular feelings among Marlins fans. It's like last night when Nats fans were saying the reason Livan was upset was because Bud & MLB hadn't sold the team yet.

 

 

 

Here's what i'm concerned about.....All this AJ s*** is preventing them from making a deal if they are actually buyers....What happens if we get back in the race and want to pick up pieces to win....who do we deal?? Where do we go???

869604[/snapback]

We are buyers. These trade proposals you are hearing/reading are Beinfest's attempt to pick up pieces to win. Disagree all you want with the return we'd be getting or even the thought of trading A.J., but Beinfest's intentions are clear. We are buyers, it just so happens one of our best tradable assets happens to be a player key to our success. I'm surprised how many have not picked up on it. Just last year Beinfest traded a very good starter and a productive firstbaseman for pieces to supplement a contender. Not every single trade is about one team forcing on this year and the other next year. There are rare trades where two contenders will trade with eachother for immediate help. This is one of those rare occurences.

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We are buyers. These trade proposals you are hearing/reading are Beinfest's attempt to pick up pieces to win. Disagree all you want with the return we'd be getting or even the thought of trading A.J., but Beinfest's intentions are clear. We are buyers, it just so happens one of our best tradable assets happens to be a player key to our success. I'm surprised how many have not picked up on it. Just last year Beinfest traded a very good starter and a productive firstbaseman for pieces to supplement a contender. Not every single trade is about one team forcing on this year and the other next year. There are rare trades where two contenders will trade with eachother for immediate help. This is one of those rare occurences.

869714[/snapback]

 

Hard to call the O's trade "immediate help" for the Marlins...

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julio adds strength to our bullpen and kline does as well against lefties. Now, I dont think either are truly that "useful". But, I think Beinfest sees it the other way. Penn is a tradable asset as is Bigbie. That is why he is getting the parts to move them around some more again.

 

I concur that this is taking too long into the peak trading times. That if we do not hurry and get this domino to fall then all of the others will not happen and it might be too late. The fact is the marlins can not wait till moments before the deadline to move AJ, if they are gonna. If they do that then they will not get what they are looking for if they wish to contend this year.

 

If they were pure sellers then they would be waiting for as long as possible before the deals can be reached.

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We are buyers. These trade proposals you are hearing/reading are Beinfest's attempt to pick up pieces to win. Disagree all you want with the return we'd be getting or even the thought of trading A.J., but Beinfest's intentions are clear. We are buyers, it just so happens one of our best tradable assets happens to be a player key to our success. I'm surprised how many have not picked up on it. Just last year Beinfest traded a very good starter and a productive firstbaseman for pieces to supplement a contender. Not every single trade is about one team forcing on this year and the other next year. There are rare trades where two contenders will trade with eachother for immediate help. This is one of those rare occurences.

869714[/snapback]

 

Hard to call the O's trade "immediate help" for the Marlins...

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You don't trade for a platoon player and reliever if you don't think they can help right now.

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You know, sooooo many people just ASSUME that the Marlins are gonna trade AJ. I really feel strongly that IF the Marlins start to play well and the Nats continue to fall, a very likely scenario with us playing the sub-.500 Giants, the Marlins WON'T trade Aj. The only reason why the Marlins are considering trading AJ is because they are unsure of the team's future this season. Sure it is VERY unlikely that the Marlins will be able to re-sign AJ, but the Fish are only gonna give away AJ if they feel they don't have a legitimate chance at going to the post season.

 

I guess my point is this, if the Marlins were 15 games over .500 and had a good lead in the NL East, which is where they should be, they wouldn't think at all about trading AJ because he would help in the post season. If the Marlins start a 6-7 game winning streak in the next couple of series and start to make a push, I wouldn't be surprised if AJ finishes this season in Teal.

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Good post, although you're guilty yourself of assuming that the Marlins are even considering moving AJ. They probably are, and I'm sure many clubs have called asking about AJ, but do we really know what's going on in Beinfest's mind. Just about everything we think we know is rumor. For all we know the real negotiations might have the Marlins moving one of their pitching prospects for a top reliever and or a big bat.I would say that IMO moving AJ at this point means giving up on winning it all THIS YEAR. There is no deal that you can make that would replace having Beckett-AJ-Willis as 1-2-3 in the playoffs THIS YEAR. I personally feel that the Marlins have only a 25% chance of making the postseason(with AJ). I'd rather take that chance, and the 2 draft picks, then give up the chance, and have to wait another 2-3 years at least until we had as strong a pitching staff. For while I think our chances of making the playoffs are only 25%, I think if we did make the playoffs, we would be the favorite(with AJ).

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Good post, although you're guilty yourself of assuming that the Marlins are even considering moving AJ. They probably are, and I'm sure many clubs have called asking about AJ, but do we really know what's going on in Beinfest's mind. Just about everything we think we know is rumor. For all we know the real negotiations might have the Marlins moving one of their pitching prospects for a top reliever and or a big bat.I would say that IMO moving AJ at this point means giving up on winning it all THIS YEAR. There is no deal that you can make that would replace having Beckett-AJ-Willis as 1-2-3 in the playoffs THIS YEAR. I personally feel that the Marlins have only a 25% chance of making the postseason(with AJ). I'd rather take that chance, and the 2 draft picks, then give up the chance, and have to wait another 2-3 years at least until we had as strong a pitching staff. For while I think our chances of making the playoffs are only 25%, I think if we did make the playoffs, we would be the favorite(with AJ).

870022[/snapback]

Pay attention. By all accounts he's trying to add a solid starter if not from the A.J trade than from another trade.

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Good post, although you're guilty yourself of assuming that the Marlins are even considering moving AJ. They probably are, and I'm sure many clubs have called asking about AJ, but do we really know what's going on in Beinfest's mind. Just about everything we think we know is rumor. For all we know the real negotiations might have the Marlins moving one of their pitching prospects for a top reliever and or a big bat.I would say that IMO moving AJ at this point means giving up on winning it all THIS YEAR. There is no deal that you can make that would replace having Beckett-AJ-Willis as 1-2-3 in the playoffs THIS YEAR. I personally feel that the Marlins have only a 25% chance of making the postseason(with AJ). I'd rather take that chance, and the 2 draft picks, then give up the chance, and have to wait another 2-3 years at least until we had as strong a pitching staff. For while I think our chances of making the playoffs are only 25%, I think if we did make the playoffs, we would be the favorite(with AJ).

870022[/snapback]

Pay attention. By all accounts he's trying to add a solid starter if not from the A.J trade than from another trade.

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I had noticed that particular rumor. None of the solid starters who have been rumored impress me, and unless AJ agrees to a new contract no team is givng up a starter that can come close to AJ. No thank you. I prefer to stick with Beckett-Burnett-Willis as 1-2-3 if we make the playoffs.

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Good post, although you're guilty yourself of assuming that the Marlins are even considering moving AJ. They probably are, and I'm sure many clubs have called asking about AJ, but do we really know what's going on in Beinfest's mind. Just about everything we think we know is rumor. For all we know the real negotiations might have the Marlins moving one of their pitching prospects for a top reliever and or a big bat.I would say that IMO moving AJ at this point means giving up on winning it all THIS YEAR. There is no deal that you can make that would replace having Beckett-AJ-Willis as 1-2-3 in the playoffs THIS YEAR. I personally feel that the Marlins have only a 25% chance of making the postseason(with AJ). I'd rather take that chance, and the 2 draft picks, then give up the chance, and have to wait another 2-3 years at least until we had as strong a pitching staff. For while I think our chances of making the playoffs are only 25%, I think if we did make the playoffs, we would be the favorite(with AJ).

870022[/snapback]

Pay attention. By all accounts he's trying to add a solid starter if not from the A.J trade than from another trade.

870107[/snapback]

I had noticed that particular rumor. None of the solid starters who have been rumored impress me, and unless AJ agrees to a new contract no team is givng up a starter that can come close to AJ. No thank you. I prefer to stick with Beckett-Burnett-Willis as 1-2-3 if we make the playoffs.

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I agree. I was not at all impressed with the rumors of who we were getting in return if we traded AJ, especially the O's deal. The Marlins are in a extremely tough position because Aj isn't just any normal pitcher. You really can't trade AJ and get a better pitcher in return, because AJ is one of the best around. I think the Marlins will look like sellers no matter who they get in return because Aj is that good.

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