hurricane center?

000

WTNT44 KNHC 291508

TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

 

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS

...AND 29/0938Z QUIKSCAT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THE LARGE

NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 730 NMI EAST OF

BERMUDA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO BE

CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...THE 26TH NAMED STORM OF THE

APPARENTLY NEVER ENDING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON BLEND OF 40-KT QUIKSCAT WINDS IN THE

NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND A 29/0800Z 996.0 MB...EQUAL TO APPROXIMATELY

55 KT... PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 41543 THAT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 90

NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07 KT. EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO

MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AROUND THE

SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE

CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN AND NORTHEASTWARD AS A

DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE

EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD AND BEGINS TO TURN EPSILON

BACK TOWARD THE EAST. BY 96 HOURS... EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO

ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR

POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL

CONSENSUS.

 

EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER 25C SSTS... WHICH IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM

ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH A

BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... THE

LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF

SLOW DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. AS SUCH... INTENSIFICATION IS

EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER THAN USUAL. HOWEVER... IF THE DEEP CONVECTION

CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AROUND THE CENTER... THEN MORE AND

EARLIER STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR THAN WHAT IS FORECAST. THE

OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS

HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 29/1500Z 31.6N 50.4W 40 KT

12HR VT 30/0000Z 31.7N 51.7W 50 KT

24HR VT 30/1200Z 31.8N 53.4W 55 KT

36HR VT 01/0000Z 32.0N 54.3W 60 KT

48HR VT 01/1200Z 32.7N 53.7W 60 KT

72HR VT 02/1200Z 33.5N 51.0W 55 KT

96HR VT 03/1200Z 35.0N 45.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 04/1200Z 37.0N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

You got to be kidding me :confused

I was dying to see if we actually got to Epsilon........and it we have....scarily a day before Hurricane season ends....don't people notice that there's something wrong here with our environment!!!!!!!!

Thankfully this storm poses no threat to the US.

 

And as I said before, I wouldn't be surprised if the hurricane season extended into December this year.

They sure weren't kidding about being in this period of "heightened activity" with no end in sight for what, another 20-30 years?

Don't these storms know their season ends Thursday?

I hope they go to the Hebrew alphabet after they run out of Greek letters.

I hope they go to the Hebrew alphabet after they run out of Greek letters.

 

My uncle said the same thing

I was dying to see if we actually got to Epsilon........and it we have....scarily a day before Hurricane season ends....don't people notice that there's something wrong here with our environment!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

 

the number i'm not overly worried about.

 

 

 

but the strength is a direct coorelation as far as I'm concerned.

I think Max Mayfield has said that the number of Hurricanes being created the last several years is not directly related to any enviromental problems, but a natural cycle that happens every few years or so in which its slow for 10-20 years and then busy the next 10-20 years.

 

 

Andrew took place in a slow period in the cycle and now we are dealing with the busy period. Atleast thats what I think... :whistle

ya the number isnt directly related to global warming. only the intensity.

ya the number isnt directly related to global warming. only the intensity.

Not even intensity is related. At least not yet.

ya cause all the extreme weather we have seen in this world recently is completely natural.

Since you guys are on this topic I thought you might find this article from the Sunday Miami Herald interesting. It's quite long so I bolded the section relevant to the topic.

 

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/front/13263338.htm

 

HURRICANE SEASON

 

Years of intense storms likely

 

The official hurricane season is almost over, but the long-term crisis is just beginning, and more storms will threaten South Florida.

 

BY MARTIN MERZER

 

mmerzer@herald.com

 

OK, we're trapped in a period of intense hurricane activity. We accept that now.

But no one is going to like the answers to two key questions that have sobering implications for people and businesses in Florida:

 

Did the deadly and destructive hurricane season that officially ends Wednesday mark the terrifying peak of this hyperactivity? And, more specifically, will these things keep hitting Florida?

 

The answers: Probably not, and almost certainly.

 

''You better learn what good shutters are and you better learn what a good house is and you better learn how to deal with hurricanes,'' said Stanley Goldenberg, a South Florida-based scientist who four years ago coauthored a pioneering -- and prophetic -- report on the upswing in hurricane activity.

 

``Why do you think the University of Miami's teams are called the Hurricanes? It's because that was normal for Florida, and now these conditions have returned. People shouldn't be scratching their heads.''

 

The 2001 report by Goldenberg and other experts documented the start of a two- to three-decade period of heightened hurricane activity after 24 relatively inactive seasons. It concluded:

 

POTENTIAL LOSSES

``Increased occurrence combined with dramatic coastal population increases during the recent lull add up to a potential for massive economic loss. In addition, there remains a potential for catastrophic loss of life in an incomplete evacuation ahead of a rapidly intensifying system.''

 

And this is just part of the 2005 scorecard:

A record 25 tropical storms in the Atlantic basin this year.

A record 13 hurricanes that grew out of those storms.

A record three top-rank Category 5 hurricanes.

The first time forecasters ran out of regular storm names.

The first tropical storm to hit Portugal -- ever.

Four hurricanes that struck or brushed Florida, adding to the four that smashed into the state in 2004.

 

And, more painfully, one of the worst natural disasters ever to ravage the United States -- Hurricane Katrina's drowning of much of New Orleans and rampage through other parts of the Gulf Coast, killing more than 1,000 people.

 

Also a relatively ''weak'' hurricane -- Stan -- that killed more than 1,300 people in Central America and Mexico, and another -- Wilma -- that shocked South Floridians with its destructive ferocity.

 

''This reconfirms the conclusions we came up with in 2001,'' said Chris Landsea, a leading member of the team that produced the groundbreaking study, published in Science, a prestigious, peer-reviewed journal. ``The upswing started in 1995, but the big impact on the U.S. and especially Florida didn't begin until last year.''

 

At the time they wrote the report, Goldenberg and Landsea worked for the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Research Division on Virginia Key.

Goldenberg still works there; Landsea recently transferred to the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.

 

Here is what they and other experts say about our current, perilous situation:

 

HURRICANE FORMATION

The hyperactivity we've seen in recent years is likely to continue for some time, possibly another 20 or more years.

 

The reason: Large-scale shifts in global climatology do not flip-flop quickly.

Most scientists believe the ''switch'' that turbocharged the hurricane engine in recent years was a combination of supportive wind patterns and the cyclical return of elevated sea-surface temperatures across a key swath of the Atlantic -- a rise of less than one degree, but enough to pump high-octane fuel into developing storms.

 

Landsea said the switch doesn't flick very often -- in terms of human time scales -- but when it does, it has dramatic effects.

 

''When you look at the cycles, it's usually busy or quiet,'' he said. ``It doesn't seem to phase gradually.''

But that doesn't mean that every year within this period will be bizarrely active.

 

Every now and then, something will come along to temporarily diminish hurricane production. One example: El Nio, the intermittent weather phenomenon that produces warmer-than-normal water in the Pacific, which in turn creates crosswinds that can suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

 

At the same time, scientists are less impressed than most people by the raw number of recent storms. They prefer a statistical standard -- the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index -- that measures the strength and duration of all storms over each season.

 

Even by that measure, the 2005 season has been awful. It produced more than 2 times the overall activity of an average season.

 

GLOBAL WARMING

There may be plenty to worry about concerning global warming, but its contribution to hurricane formation or intensity remains unclear.

 

Earlier this year, noted researcher Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology published a report that asserted a statistical link between global warming and a rise in the accumulated power of hurricanes during the past 30 years, with a particularly steep increase since 1995.

 

But Landsea, Goldenberg and some other experts dispute Emanuel's statistical procedures and his conclusions.

 

''No credible observational evidence is available or likely will be available in the next few decades which will be able to directly associate global temperature change to changes in global tropical cyclone frequency and intensity,'' prominent hurricane forecaster William Gray of Colorado State University wrote in a rebuttal to Emanuel's study.

 

Landsea and Goldenberg say global warming may add just a fractional contribution to our hurricane problems.

 

''People like to embrace global warming because it gives them a scapegoat,'' Goldenberg said. 'They say, `This is not normal. It's some kind of weird thing that's all the government's fault,' instead of saying, 'Hey, guys, this is normal. We're stuck in the hurricanes' path, and that's just the way it is.'

 

''When you talk about 'stuck in the hurricanes' path,'' you're talking about Florida.

 

Not only were more bullets available in the form of more storms, but atmospheric steering currents shifted to our disadvantage, more frequently pointing the gun at Florida and the Gulf Coast.

 

Most at fault: a high-pressure system generally based in the Atlantic -- known as the Bermuda High -- that has been meandering in a way unfriendly to Florida. Hurricanes, which are low-pressure systems, are often steered by stronger high-pressure systems.

 

These phenomena defy long-term prediction, but they also tend to persist.

''If the past is a key to the future as regards steering, it seems like certain steering patterns have hung around for several years to a decade,'' Goldenberg said.We hate to bring this up, but during the last period of heightened activity, Miami-Dade absorbed strikes or brushes by 17 hurricanes between 1926 and 1965, one every two or three years. Many of those storms also affected Broward County.

The implications for South Floridians are obvious.

 

''Having two hurricanes, Katrina and Wilma, strike Miami [and Broward] in one year is a rare event,'' Landsea said. ``We won't be seeing that kind of impact every year, but a fact of life is that you have to decide for yourself if the increased risks are worth it.

 

``To me, living in South Florida is great 99 percent of the time. Well, maybe 98 percent of the time.''

Goldenberg also lives in South Florida. His family almost died when his house was destroyed by Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

 

`FACT IS FACT'

''I don't like what I'm saying,'' he said. ``I don't necessarily enjoy going through hurricanes, but fact is fact.''

And now, with the official season ending but the long-term crisis still at an early stage, he and other experts sympathize with those who lost their lives to hurricanes in New Orleans, Biloxi and elsewhere, including South Florida.

 

''What's it going to take to educate people that a hurricane is a very, very dangerous event, and if you take it seriously and respond appropriately, you can do a lot to protect your life and property?'' Goldenberg said.

``But if you take it lightly, you can be in for a rude awakening -- or not awaken at all.''

Hurricane

Just amazing. Will this season ever end......or just somehow morph into Hurricane Season 2006? There's still plenty of warm water in the Caribbean.

It'll weaken, but it's turning back south again....possibly roundabout and head West, or is it just goin to die out there?

ttiwwp

What does ttiwwp mean? And ya, that sh*t is turning around for us.

 

WE WAS TRICKSIED!

I mean seriously....I wanted to wait a bit, and this is probably premature, but I've been following the advisories for the past two days. This b*tch is turning right back around and going toward the SouthWest....

 

 

It says it'll be a depression, but it wasn't even supposed to be a hurricane for this long. I know this is very premature, as I stated above, but I find it fascinating that this system is holding on and making one last charge (or so it seems).

ttiwwp=this thread is worthless without pics

Haha, NOAA had this to say in what they say is the final advisory:

 

000

WTNT34 KNHC 081429

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 37

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM AST THU DEC 08 2005

 

...EPSILON WEAKENING RAPIDLY...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

...IT IS ABOUT TIME...

 

 

I've been following the storm for about a week....They kept saying it would weaken, but it remained a hurricane until this morning/last last night. I'm sure whoever kept writing that got an earful from his colleagues.