Has anyone acknowledged that most of the runs taxed on the D-Train were after he blew his lead, c'on now, one bad outing, he had a solid one through 6. No need to trade a proven pitcher am sorry! Maybe I'll trade you for a hamburger, I AM HUNGRY!

 

 

Dude, I don't think the starter of the thread meant trade Willis because of his play, I think he meant trade Willis because this team stinks and its unfair to Dontrelle to be stuck on such a stinky team.

Let's go through this. I'm only including players with over 3 service years (arbitration eligibility) and traded between the end of the world series to mid-1998. If and when Dontrelle or Cabrera are traded or when we make our future draft picks, then we'll include Renteria and Beckett. If anyone really cares to explore the inevitable Dombrowski - Beinfest debate further, have fun [without me].

 

And what did we get?

Joe Fontenot (1998: 78-#, 66-$, 1997: 45-$), Derrek Lee (1998: 12-#, 47-$, 1997: 44-*, 3-#, 15-$), Rafael Medina (1998: 61-#, 72-$, 1997: 64-$), Preston Wilson (1998: 54-#, 70-$), Ed Yarnall (1998: 60-$), Geoff Goetz (1998: 96-$). Everyone else was unranked including a former 8th-round draft pick by the name of AJ Burnett, who came to the Marlins with just rookie league experience and had a breakout minor league season in 1998.

 

This past offseason's haul?

 

Renyal Pinto (2005: 94-&, HM-@), Mike Jacobs (2006: 42-%), Yusmeiro Petit (2006: 69-$, 33-%, 28-@, 2005: 46-$, 15-%, 22-@), Hanley Ramirez (2006: 30-$, HM-%, 36-@, 2005: 10-$, 18-@), Anibal Sanchez (2006: 40-$, 32-@, HM-%) and Gabriel Hernandez (2006: 68-@).

 

That's an equal number of ranked prospects, whether it be 1 source or 3. And the 2006 cast has overall better rankings. The 2006 return is predicted for much greater success than the 1998 haul were predicted for.

 

Throw in Livan, Renteria, 100 Sheffield AB's, Kotsay, Dunwoody, Heredia, Castillo and Gonzalez. And Cabrera, Willis, Hermida, Willingham, Johnson, Olsen and Vargas.

 

How can you seriously argue the 1998-9 teams projected to do better than this team?!?

 

 

(* John Sickels: 1998, 1997

$ Baseball America: 2006, 2005, 1998, 1997

% Baseball Prospectus: 2006, 2005

# Spring Training Magazine: 1998, 1997

@ Baseball Analysts: 2006, 2005)

Jesus Christ, you could have used a little more legible footnotes.

 

I never argued that the '98 squad was better, never. I just took issue with the suggestion that the past offseason's haul was substantially better than the '98 one.

This is from the Marlins Minor League Blog Maverickball, and I happen to agree with them:

 

"Ok the 100-loss talk in the media has inspired me. That ?98 team lost 108 games. This team has so much more potential. We?re starting off the season in much better shape not only for the future but the present as well. Fans should not mistake this team for 1998. This argument doesn?t really need to be made anyway, but I?m bored so?

 

Here we go: 1998 team vs projected 2006 team. To be fair, the ?98 team had top prospects on it as well, and in some respects I?m sure they had the same thing in mind; they?d be a team of young talented kids that could grow together and contend quickly. By the time 2003 rolled around most of these starters were gone, but nevertheless? for your enjoyment:

 

Catcher:Greg Zaun/Charles Johnson/Mike Redmond vs Josh Willingham/Miguel Olivo

The ?98 trio hit 14 homers combined. Greg Zaun (300 at-bats) and CJ (100) had batting averages of .188 and .221 respectively (yes you read that correctly, Greg Zaun had 300 at-bats and batted .188). CJ slugged .451, and Zaun slugged ?. well I shan?t repeat it for the sake of decency. Mike Redmond contributing his usual steady 100 at-bats is the only thing saving that group from complete embarrassment. Matt Treanor alone could probably beat out the ?98 group (okay that might be stretching it). He is unproven defensively but by any reasonable projection of offensive output Josh Willingham should easily top the ?98 catchers.

Edge: 2006

 

First Base: Derek Lee vs Mike Jacobs

Remember this is the 1998 version of Derek Lee we?re comparing? the one who lost his job a year later to Kevin Millar. Lee was Baseball America?s #47 prospect going into the season and did hit 17 home runs, but he managed just .233/.318/.414 at the plate. Mike Jacobs just hit 11 homers in less than a quarter of the at-bats Lee had that year, while batting .310/.375/710. I don?t expect him to keep up that pace obviously, but I do expect at least 17 homers while batting better than .233. Derek didn?t really hit his stride until he was 25, two years later. Jacobs is already 25 and while he?s behind defensively, he may be a bit further along than DLee was at this stage. (Ryan Jackson also logged some time at 1B and had similar stats. If Wes Helms platoons with Jacobs this only increases the ?06 lead, as he?s historically been great against left-handed pitching.)

Edge: 2006

 

Second Base: Craig Counsell/Luis Castillo vs Dan Uggla

This wasn?t the Luis Castillo you kids remember. This one hit .203. Craig Counsell actually had the majority of at-bats & hit .250. They combined for a whopping 5 homers and miniscule slugging %. The comparison?s a tougher one though, since the ?98 guys were leadoff-types & weren?t expected to produce runs, whereas Dan Uggla will hit in the back of the order somewhere and hack away. He?ll outslug the ?98 group, but Counsell knew how to take walks & get on base. Uggla may also have some defensive issues, where Counsell was pretty steady. We?ll call it even.

Edge: Even

 

Shortstop: Edgar Renteria vs Hanley Ramirez

If Hanley can match the .282 average Edgar put up I?ll be thrilled. But Renteria hit just 3 homers and 18 doubles over a full season of at-bats. That ain?t much. That?s Luis Castillo-type slugging numbers. And this isn?t your father?s National League anymore when light-hitting Ozzie Smith shortstops were the norm. Based on what we?ve seen from Hanley, he?s bound to surpass the 1998 version of Edgar in home runs and slugging. He?ll bat leadoff to begin with, so it?s his on-base ability that may be most scrutinized. Hanley Ramirez has a higher ceiling and is a higher prospect than Ramirez ever was. Edgar was an All-Star in ?98 so I?ll give him the benefit of the doubt but I?m being generous. (Also since we haven?t had an extended look at Hanley defensively).

Edge: Even

 

Third Base: Todd Zeile/Kevin Orie/Bobby Bonilla vs Miguel Cabrera

Next.

Edge: 2006

 

Left Field: Cliff Floyd vs Chris Aguila

Finally! A win for the ?98 bunch! Floyd actually had an entirely healthy season that year & put up?. well, good numbers at least, .282/.337/.481 with 22 homers. Chris Aguila won?t match that output, however he?ll be less surly.

Edge: 1998

 

Center Field: Todd Dunwoody vs Reggie Abercrombie

Ah, the long awaited coming out party for Todd Dunwoody. BA?s #87 prospect went out and hit .251/.292/.380, with 5 homers. Okay they can?t all turn out to be stars. If Reggie Abercrombie swings at every single pitch the entire season he?ll run into more than 5 homers just by accident. Even if he can?t manage to hit .250 his power should produce better slugging numbers. If he can?t hit at all, they?ll move Aguila to center & he?ll outhit Dunwoody too. Take away pinch-hitting over the past 2 years and Chris is a pretty solid hitter.

Edge: 2006

 

Right Field: Mark Kotsay vs Jeremy Hermida

Kotsay actually was a bright spot for that team. He was Baseball America?s #12 overall prospect going into the season, so the Hermida comparison is pretty apt. The .279 average was nice for a rookie, but it?s the moneyball stats where Hermida should best him. Kotsay had a .318 on-base % and slugged .403. Hermida will walk a ton and almost certainly will hit more than 11 homers.

Edge: 2006

 

Starting Rotation: Hernandez/Meadows/Sanchez/Larkin/Medina/Dempster/Ojala vs Willis/Moehler/Vargas/Johnson/Mitre/Olsen

 

The 1998 rotation was essentially all rookies. Livan was coming off the world series MVP, but he wasn?t near what Dontrelle is right now. After that it?s (brace yourselves) Brian Meadows, Jesus Sanchez, Andy Larkin, Rafael Medina, Ryan Dempster and Kurt Ojala vs Jason Vargas, Josh Johnson, Sergio Mitre, and Scott Olson. Throw in Brian Moehler who?s coming off a season as good as anyone had in ?98. Now to be fair, a couple of the ?98 guys (Medina in particular at #72) were top 100 prospects as well. Sanchez and Ojala pitched well enough but ultimately didn?t last in the league, the rest of them had disastrous seasons. Jason Vargas comes in with about as much experience as Livan did, and has shown he can pitch up here. With Olsen, Johnson, Nolasco, Petit, Mitre, and possibly Annibal Sanchez all likely to get starts, you?re talking about 4 of BA?s top 100 prospects, plus 2 others who are highly regarded in their own right, all in competition for two rotation spots. I like those odds. I?m going with the ?06 bunch, where they?re better at the top and overall have the deeper, more talented group of young arms.

Edge: 2006

 

I?m not going to get into the bullpens. Matt Mantei had a good season closing in ?98 but otherwise it was a pretty mixed bag. If you?re going to tell me the ?98 team was better because of the bullpen, we probably shouldn?t even be having the conversation. Let?s just call it even and move on.

 

So even being rather kind to the ?98 team at a couple of positions (2B and SS where I think the new players will be better offensively), the 2006 team should be much better. The ?06 staff should be better as well. I don?t know how many games improved from 106 losses they?ll be, but my guess is it won?t be close. I?ll throw out 72-90."

Maverick?

 

The hell does that guy know? :whistle

lol, that's one of my posts.

 

I's famous.

 

 

I wouldn't put too much stock into that, I was bored at work one day.

lol, that's my own post & I think it sucks.

 

 

You're maverick?

Two are regarded as the best talent evaluators in the baseball media, another two are well-respected articles of the baseball media while the other is a highly-respected blogger with a focus on scouting.

 

My point is that 1998 didn't. It brought the best that could be requested at that time.

lol, that's my own post & I think it sucks.

 

 

You're maverick?

I am.

 

and Hotcorner did that piece though

lol, that's my own post & I think it sucks.

 

 

You're maverick?

 

No, he's hotcorner.

lol, that's my own post & I think it sucks.

 

 

You're maverick?

I am.

 

and Hotcorner did that piece though

 

Oh, ok. Love that site.

 

 

 

lol, that's my own post & I think it sucks.

 

 

You're maverick?

 

No, he's hotcorner.

 

Ah, I see. And Who's on first, right? :blink:

& I was just backing up my prediction that the 06 team would be better than the 98 one. Substantially better? That remains to be seen, but I definitely think we have more pieces suitable for building a winner.

& I was just backing up my prediction that the 06 team would be better than the 98 one. Substantially better? That remains to be seen, but I definitely think we have more pieces suitable for building a winner.

 

 

I actually agree with your prediction. I think 72 wins is entirely within the realm of possibility.

lol, that's my own post & I think it sucks.

 

You're maverick?

I am.

and Hotcorner did that piece though

Oh, ok. Love that site.

 

:o thanks :hat

:o thanks :hat

 

 

I've just started exploring the seedy underworld of marlins fan sites, but I've liked your site for a while. The top 30 prospects thing was good.

:o thanks :hat

 

 

I've just started exploring the seedy underworld of marlins fan sites, but I've liked your site for a while. The top 30 prospects thing was good.

 

Well at least you won't have too many sites to visit :lol

 

 

& I was just backing up my prediction that the 06 team would be better than the 98 one. Substantially better? That remains to be seen, but I definitely think we have more pieces suitable for building a winner.

 

 

I actually agree with your prediction. I think 72 wins is entirely within the realm of possibility.

 

After watching them for a month, and seen the regression of the last week, I don't see how any of you can say they'll win anywhere near 72. I once believed that too, but now think no more than 35-40.

:o thanks :hat

 

 

I've just started exploring the seedy underworld of marlins fan sites, but I've liked your site for a while. The top 30 prospects thing was good.

 

Well at least you won't have too many sites to visit :lol

WTF!?! I can think of a half-dozen good Marlins blogs and forums off the top of my head

After watching them for a month, and seen the regression of the last week, I don't see how any of you can say they'll win anywhere near 72. I once believed that too, but now think no more than 35-40.

 

 

I think 65 is the minimum. Too much talent for them not to play at least .500 ball once they stop the stupid mistakes.

WTF!?! I can think of a half-dozen good Marlins blogs and forums off the top of my head

 

 

And probably 3 times that many for the Atlanta Braves, St Louis Cardinals and even the Cincinnati Reds.

7.1 IP 8ER...........it's OK to trade him now

 

You are in IDIOT

 

Yea, lets trade for more rooks that you can yell at and say suck and can complain about too right? I mean who really wants a former runner up of the Cy Young award and former 22 game winner on their team? You people need to STOP blaming the players, the point is they are young and are competeing on a NEW level much faster and much more aggresive from they normally play. Many of you may say it's a level right after AAA, but this level has veterans that know where to pitch you and veterans that know how to hit you HARD. I know everyone is mad and P-o'ed but did you really think we would even dance with 500 from begining to end? We just have to be patient and hope they get it together by the end of the season.