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Marlin Standout Starter Comparison


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Let's compare the incredible arms of the past to the present. I put together a list of the first (meaningful) seasons of our past studs and compared them to our studs of today. The results are extremely promising.

 

 

*Bolded items are leader of that category amongst all pitchers, past or present

*Underlined items are impressive feats

 

 

Past

 

Brad Penny (2000): Age 22, 119.2 IP, 120 hits, 60 BB, 80 K, 8 W, 7 L, 4.81 ERA

 

A.J. Burnett (2000): Age 23, 82.2 IP, 80 hits, 44 BB, 57 K, 3 W, 7 L, 4.79 ERA

 

Josh Beckett (2002): Age 22, 107.2 IP, 93 hits, 44 BB, 113 K, 6 W, 7 L, 4.10 ERA

 

Dontrelle Willis (2003): Age 21, 160.2 IP, 148 hits, 58 BB, 152 K, 14 W, 6 L, 3.38 ERA

 

Present

 

Josh Johnson (2006): Age 22, 157 IP, 136 hits, 68 BB, 133 K, 12 W, 7 L, 3.10 ERA

 

Scott Olsen (2006): Age 22, 165 IP, 143 hits, 69 BB, 150 K, 12 W, 8 L, 3.98 ERA

 

Ricky Nolasco (2006): Age 23, 130.1 IP, 143 hits, 35 BB, 88 K, 11 W, 9 L, 4.56 ERA

 

Anibal Sanchez (2006): Age 22, 102.1 IP, 77 hits, 41 BB, 65 K, 8 W, 3 L, 2.90 ERA

____________________________________________-

 

I find it really interesting they all compare. Beckett, Burnett, and Penny all had really rough starts, and now two of them are All-Stars and one would be if he could remain healthy. Beckett is the only one of these pitchers to K more batters than innings pitched.

 

It's also pretty incredible how Olsen and Johnson compare to Willis. Every stat of Scott and Josh's are nearly identical to D-Train's, except for Olsen's ERA. It makes me wonder if those two have the ability to turn into 20-game winners. It also makes me wonder if they'll have the same type of sophomore slump.

 

Any thoughts?

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There's no question in my mind this is the most developed group of young arms we've every put together.

 

HOWEVER

 

They can't touch the "potential" of Beckett/Burnett/Penny.

 

Now, what that means to you is purely subjective. After all, results are all that matter.

 

I agree that the "stuff" factor isn't even close, but like you said, results are all that matter. Glavine and Maddux never had incredible "stuff"...

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Also, because I think the sophomore slump is more explicable than mysterious:

 

Dontrelle's 2002 IP: 157.2

Dontrelle's 2003 IP: 197

 

Olsen's 2005 IP: 100 (injury shortened, 136 previous season)

Olsen's 2006 PROJECTED IP: 181

 

JJ's 2005 IP: 153

JJ's 2006 IP: 157 (Season shut-down).

 

Nolasco's 2005 IP: 161.2

Nolasco's 2006 PROJECTED IP: 138.1

 

Sanchez' 2005 IP: 136.1

Sanchez' 2006 PROJECTED IP: 185 (Minors and Majors).

 

So, to me, the only ones who don't fall into that 20 inning cushion are Sanchez and Olsen, arguably our two best starters.

 

Concerning? Yeah.

 

So...do we shut down Olsen and Sanchez?

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Furthering my concern is that Olsen and Sanchez are the two most "fragile" of the starters heading into the season.

 

So far (knock on wood) we've been incredibly fortunate with their health this season, but at some point this has to be a serious concern.

 

I can see an argument for being in the "ah hell with it, the kid gloves are off, these guys have to get used to going for 200 innings in a season" camp, and I can also see the reasoning behind being delicate with them.

 

Now, I think the front-office knows now what they're going to do in the offseason (re: spend money to try to win sooner than anticipated or stay the course) and what direction we're taking next season should play a big role in what we do now. If we're targeting winning next season, I think we should shut some of them down, if we're just staying the course, air them out, strengthen those arms.

 

Really, the difficulty of this is that Olsen and Sanchez have been healthy (again, knock on wood) so it's not as if there's an ability to shut them down easily.

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Sanchez will be a #1 starter for years to come...JJ os also a #1 type starter plus D-Train who can possibly give you another 20 W's We also have Olsen who can win 15-18 games (should have won 15 games this year) As a group they have surpassed Beckett, Penny, Burnett and Dempster in potential. I love Beckett but Sanchez maybe a better pitcher for years to come. Our rotation has 4 starter which either one or all of them can easily win around 20 games if healthy. BTW JJ is a master pitcher as such a young age. Leads us to Nolasco and I can easily say he can win 15 games as a 5th starter if you look at all rotations in MLB he is close to being the best 5th starter in MLB right now

There isn't any reason to shut down either Olsen or Sanchez. We can still have a winning record this season

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Sanchez will be a #1 starter for years to come...JJ os also a #1 type starter plus D-Train who can possibly give you another 20 W's We also have Olsen who can win 15-18 games (should have won 15 games this year) As a group they have surpassed Beckett, Penny, Burnett and Dempster in potential. I love Beckett but Sanchez maybe a better pitcher for years to come. Our rotation has 4 starter which either one or all of them can easily win around 20 games if healthy. BTW JJ is a master pitcher as such a young age. Leads us to Nolasco and I can easily say he can win 15 games as a 5th starter if you look at all rotations in MLB he is close to being the best 5th starter in MLB right now

There isn't any reason to shut down either Olsen or Sanchez. We can still have a winning record this season

 

 

Dempster! I knew I forgot somebody... The only All-Star of them all as a Marlin and I forgot him.

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Further research on my part about the IP hang-over (let's not call it a sophomore slump):

 

Johan Santana:

 

2002 IP: 108.1 (23 yrs old)

2003 IP: 158.1 (24)

2004 IP: 228.0 (25)

2005 IP: 231.2 (26)

 

Andy Pettitte:

 

1995 IP: 175.0 (23; 12-9)

1996 IP: 221.0 (24; 21-8)

1997 IP: 240.1 (25; 18-7)

1998 IP: 216.0 (26; 16-11)

 

 

So, the slump is not guaranteed to just appear if that 20 inning threshold is ignored, and none of them are doing the Prior-esque 100 inning jump.

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Also, because I think the sophomore slump is more explicable than mysterious:

 

Dontrelle's 2002 IP: 157.2

Dontrelle's 2003 IP: 197

 

Olsen's 2005 IP: 100 (injury shortened, 136 previous season)

Olsen's 2006 PROJECTED IP: 181

 

JJ's 2005 IP: 153

JJ's 2006 IP: 157 (Season shut-down).

 

Nolasco's 2005 IP: 161.2

Nolasco's 2006 PROJECTED IP: 138.1

 

Sanchez' 2005 IP: 136.1

Sanchez' 2006 PROJECTED IP: 185 (Minors and Majors).

 

So, to me, the only ones who don't fall into that 20 inning cushion are Sanchez and Olsen, arguably our two best starters.

 

Concerning? Yeah.

 

So...do we shut down Olsen and Sanchez?

 

 

Great question. For their careers' sake, I would have to vote for a shutdown now that we are out of it.

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Also, because I think the sophomore slump is more explicable than mysterious:

 

Dontrelle's 2002 IP: 157.2

Dontrelle's 2003 IP: 197

 

Olsen's 2005 IP: 100 (injury shortened, 136 previous season)

Olsen's 2006 PROJECTED IP: 181

 

JJ's 2005 IP: 153

JJ's 2006 IP: 157 (Season shut-down).

 

Nolasco's 2005 IP: 161.2

Nolasco's 2006 PROJECTED IP: 138.1

 

Sanchez' 2005 IP: 136.1

Sanchez' 2006 PROJECTED IP: 185 (Minors and Majors).

 

So, to me, the only ones who don't fall into that 20 inning cushion are Sanchez and Olsen, arguably our two best starters.

 

Concerning? Yeah.

 

So...do we shut down Olsen and Sanchez?

 

 

Great question. For their careers' sake, I would have to vote for a shutdown now that we are out of it.

 

Olsen probably should be shutdown now. He said he had nothing left in the tank all game last night after the game (despite pitching strong).

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Burnett is still the most overrated. And I'd take any of our rookies this year over him. Burnett will never be better than a .500 pitcher, and he still isn't even that.

 

 

And he's still got better stuff than any pitcher in North America.

I dont know about that.. Santana is nasty

 

Of course, and I'd take him over A.J. any day in the real world. But in fantasy land where pitchers are only judged by their stuff, I will always take A.J. Burnett first. Always.

 

BTW, the experation date on that sig of yours is looooong passed. :lol

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Also, because I think the sophomore slump is more explicable than mysterious:

 

Dontrelle's 2002 IP: 157.2

Dontrelle's 2003 IP: 197

 

Olsen's 2005 IP: 100 (injury shortened, 136 previous season)

Olsen's 2006 PROJECTED IP: 181

 

JJ's 2005 IP: 153

JJ's 2006 IP: 157 (Season shut-down).

 

Nolasco's 2005 IP: 161.2

Nolasco's 2006 PROJECTED IP: 138.1

 

Sanchez' 2005 IP: 136.1

Sanchez' 2006 PROJECTED IP: 185 (Minors and Majors).

 

So, to me, the only ones who don't fall into that 20 inning cushion are Sanchez and Olsen, arguably our two best starters.

 

Concerning? Yeah.

 

So...do we shut down Olsen and Sanchez?

 

 

Great question. For their careers' sake, I would have to vote for a shutdown now that we are out of it.

 

Olsen probably should be shutdown now. He said he had nothing left in the tank all game last night after the game (despite pitching strong).

 

If he said that, please shut him down. Please.

 

To me, he's by far the biggest concern.

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