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There's a method to the Marlins' Madness


Marlins2003
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Beinfest signaled (at least to me) in this morning's papers that a plan under consideration is to convert one of our young starters to the closer role if no one else rises to the occasion. If that is where he's going it would explain why Beinfest has repeatedly indicated he's adamant about not trading one the kids (or Dontrelle for that matter), he's leaving open the option of a "Schmoltz" move to the pen.

 

The quote: " 'We do have some internal options,' said Beinfest, referencing Taylor Tankersley, Jose Garcia and Randy Messenger among others. 'Adam Wainwright was a starter and there he is closing games in the World Series. ... We have good quality arms. It's just a matter of how we use them and what the need may be.' "

 

If this turns out to be the case, barring injuries, he has to believe there is enough major league ready pitching in the system, whether it be a healthy Mitre (who I think there's a reasonable chance gets traded before opening day for that young centerfielder we're looking for) or any one of a number of the kids who can be the team's fifth starter.

 

I think we can stratch Olsen off the list and possibly Sanchez as well. The moment I read his comments this morning I thought of Josh Johnson making a move to the pen ala Schmoltz.

 

This kind of move, or at least signalling this kind of move on the eve of the Winter Meetings, may be nothing more than strategy for negotiating purposes, or he may actually be contemplating it. Either way it works in our favor as we discuss trading options with other teams.

 

Brilliant Admin, brilliant!

 

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....But Wainwright never started a game in the majors yet. He was turned into a reliver at the end of 2005 and all through the winter. I dont think thats the best example he could have used. Then again, he said Randy Messenger could be an option, so maybe Admin was high.

 

While I think Josh would be an excellent closer, what a waste of his arm that would be. And all I took from this quote was that we have alot of relief prospects who are pretty close to the show, and I agree.

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I've advocated Johnson and Nolasco as closers in the past, but I think this reading was misinterpreted.

 

Remember, Tank and Garcia are "starters" so that may be generally where he's going with his comments. However, I think the gist of his comments is that you don't need a 'traditional' closer candidate to be successful. As in (read between the lines) he's not signing anyone.

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I don't know how else to interpret "Adam Wainwright was a starter and there he is closing games in the World Series" except that he's throwing out there the possibility of moving a starter into the closer role. Why do you think Swift I misinterpreted that sentence? Seems pretty clear to me.

 

As I said though, it may just be a ruse for negotiating purposes or it may be something under consideration, we don't know, but I find the timing of it excellent.

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I don't know how else to interpret "Adam Wainwright was a starter and there he is closing games in the World Series" except that he's throwing out there the possibility of moving a starter into the closer role. Why do you think Swift I misinterpreted that sentence? Seems pretty clear to me.

 

As I said though, it may just be a ruse for negotiating purposes or it may be something under consideration, we don't know, but I find the timing of it excellent.

 

Because he never mentioned JJ at all yet threw Tankersley and Garcia out there, both of whom have been/are starters.

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I don't know how else to interpret "Adam Wainwright was a starter and there he is closing games in the World Series" except that he's throwing out there the possibility of moving a starter into the closer role. Why do you think Swift I misinterpreted that sentence? Seems pretty clear to me.

 

As I said though, it may just be a ruse for negotiating purposes or it may be something under consideration, we don't know, but I find the timing of it excellent.

 

Because he never mentioned JJ at all yet threw Tankersley and Garcia out there, both of whom have been/are starters.

 

I'm not going to spend the afternoon arguing this minutia but both Tankersley and Garcia have been used exclusively at the major league level as relievers and Beinfest by his own words is referring to someone in a "starter" role. Tankersley never started a game in 2006 in Carolina, having already been converted to a reliever before the Carolina season started. I believe he was referring not just guys already in the pen but to the option of moving a starter there. Otherwise he would just been repeating himself.

 

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

And as I've said, the comment could be nothing more than a strategy for negotiating purposes.

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I don't know how else to interpret "Adam Wainwright was a starter and there he is closing games in the World Series" except that he's throwing out there the possibility of moving a starter into the closer role. Why do you think Swift I misinterpreted that sentence? Seems pretty clear to me.

 

As I said though, it may just be a ruse for negotiating purposes or it may be something under consideration, we don't know, but I find the timing of it excellent.

 

Because he never mentioned JJ at all yet threw Tankersley and Garcia out there, both of whom have been/are starters.

 

I'm not going to spend the afternoon arguing this minutia but both Tankersley and Garcia have been used exclusively at the major league level as relievers and Beinfest by his own words is referring to someone in a "starter" role. Tankersley never started a game in 2006 in Carolina, having already been converted to a reliever before the Carolina season started. I believe he was referring not just guys already in the pen but to the option of moving a starter there. Otherwise he would just been repeating himself.

 

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

And as I've said, the comment could be nothing more than a strategy for negotiating purposes.

 

And the person who Admin's juxtaposing our players with, Wainwright, has 0 major league starts under his belt, was only a starter in the minor leagues and hasn't been considered a starter since 2005, eerily similar to Taylor Tankersely, not Josh Johnson or Ricky Nolasco or Scott Olsen.

 

End.

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I kinda agree with Swift... I simply took his comments to mean that we have a lot of starters in the minors that can be converted to relievers (Tank, Garcia, etc...)... When you have a rotation of young pitchers, such as the Marlins.. Who have proven they have what it takes to pitch at the Major League level, I just don't see him messing with that. Josh Johnson can be a future ace in the big leagues.. Hell, he was our ace for most of the year last year. I think it would be a major waste to make him a reliever. I'm not saying he wouldn't make a great closer, and I'm not taking anything away from that role because it's obviously critical to the success of a team.. But it's hard to find quality starters, and once you have, you don't mess with it... The Marlins strength at the moment is their starting rotation.

 

But then again, what do I know... We're trying to decrypt a couple of sentences from Beinfest, which I think goes back to the point Marlins2003 was trying to make the other day. There's nothing else to talk about, so let's dissect as much as we can.... All these interpretations and theories are all objective.. Nobody is right or wrong...

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I like the idea of Nolasco as a reliever if we do keep him around, because he has a nice fastball and his breaking ball is a dominant out pitch.

 

Not sure we really need to be worrying about pen as much, though. Pinto and Tank have already filled the mold, and of course there's Carlos Martinez when he returns. Garcia is probably destined to be a reliever and we've got a couple arms in from trades.....let's not worry about signing someone anymore. If Petit can win a starting job in ST and Nolasco stays, that's a potential pen of something like Tank-Pinto-Nolasco-Owens-Gregg-Lindstrom with maybe an invite like Koplove winning a spot. I like that possible pen.

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I agree about Nolasco as a potential future reliever/closer. He was good in the pen early on (arguably better than he was as a starter). He's the #5 guy, and he seemed to "tire" at the end of the season more than anyone, with fewer innings pitched.

 

And this is one of the main reasons why I don't like the idea of shopping him around for trade if it's unnecessary. Even if someone else comes up to usurp his spot in the rotation (which some people think is inevitable), Nolasco is almost certainly going to convert to a reliever better than would other potential starting pitchers like Mitre & Petit, and we do have need of good bullpen arms.

 

Nolasco as a closer, long reliever, or spot starter would still be valuable even if we find a better guy for the rotation.

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Beinfest signaled (at least to me) in this morning's papers that a plan under consideration is to convert one of our young starters to the closer role if no one else rises to the occasion. If that is where he's going it would explain why Beinfest has repeatedly indicated he's adamant about not trading one the kids (or Dontrelle for that matter), he's leaving open the option of a "Schmoltz" move to the pen.

 

The quote: " 'We do have some internal options,' said Beinfest, referencing Taylor Tankersley, Jose Garcia and Randy Messenger among others. 'Adam Wainwright was a starter and there he is closing games in the World Series. ... We have good quality arms. It's just a matter of how we use them and what the need may be.' "

 

If this turns out to be the case, barring injuries, he has to believe there is enough major league ready pitching in the system, whether it be a healthy Mitre (who I think there's a reasonable chance gets traded before opening day for that young centerfielder we're looking for) or any one of a number of the kids who can be the team's fifth starter.

 

I think we can stratch Olsen off the list and possibly Sanchez as well. The moment I read his comments this morning I thought of Josh Johnson making a move to the pen ala Schmoltz.

 

This kind of move, or at least signalling this kind of move on the eve of the Winter Meetings, may be nothing more than strategy for negotiating purposes, or he may actually be contemplating it. Either way it works in our favor as we discuss trading options with other teams.

 

Brilliant Admin, brilliant!

 

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JJ already said he hates working out of the pen, in an article I remember him saying he perfers being a starter because as a Starter he can get into a groove where he can start getting batters out one after another. Remember that one game aginst the cubs where we lost because of a 6-run inning?

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Because they haven't really gotten anyone. Kevin Gregg? Give me a break.

 

The two guys in the Mets trade are still unproven and I don't think anyone the Marlins have acquired period will fill in the middle relief role. It seems like to me the Marlins have only gotten long relief/late inning guys. I haven't really seen the Matt Herges replacement yet.

 

Gregg was the Herges replacement. Beinfest said in an article after he was acquired that he would fill the same role as Herges, pitching out of the pen and becoming the mop-up/long man if needed.

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Because they haven't really gotten anyone. Kevin Gregg? Give me a break.

 

The two guys in the Mets trade are still unproven and I don't think anyone the Marlins have acquired period will fill in the middle relief role. It seems like to me the Marlins have only gotten long relief/late inning guys. I haven't really seen the Matt Herges replacement yet.

 

And as I understand it, Martinez won't be back this season.

 

 

I suppose I perceive the Marlins bullpen differently than most do. I can't remember the last time I was satisfied. When Herges was pitching decently for a stretch in early summer everyone seemed to think the worst was behind us but I still remained skeptical.

Why do we have to have replacements for guys that really weren't worth their own weight?

 

My shakedown of what a pen needs is this:

- very good closer

- very good setup man

- ace fireman

- good fireman

- solid middle guy

- middle/long

- wild card (if a team decides to carry seven relievers and twelve pitchers overall)

 

Now, judging by this framework (and again, I stress this is my own not anyone else's) and by the people we have, we can very much have a successful pen next year. Here's how I see it so far, assuming Tank is not given the closer's job, from those that were in the pen last year:

 

Setup: Tank

Numbers: 41.0 IP, 33 H, 14 R, 13 ER, 4 HR, 26 BB, 46 K, 39 IR, 13 IRS, 1.16 G/F, 2.85 ERA / 1.44 WHIP / 1.77 K/BB

Why: His numbers are good to this point, but not totally worthy of a fireman spot. His WHIP is much to high as of right now even though he did well when inheriting runners (33% scored, not bad). He gets mostly ground balls which is good from the pen and his ERA is low, also good for someone who more often than not will be starting innings (8th). He needs to work on the walks though, which is a recurring theme coming up in the pen.

 

Good Fireman: Pinto

Numbers: 29.2 IP, 20 H, 12 R, 10 ER, 3 HR, 27 BB, 36 K, 13 IR, 3 IRS, 1.14 G/F, 3.03/1.58/1.33

Why: Again, someone who struggles with the walks. However, Pinto has shown a prowess in a limited time with runners on (just 23% inherited runners scoring) and is equally tough vs both L (.171 avg against) and R (.200 avg against). I think the walks will improve over time, and while I don't think he'll continue at the same IRS clip he should be a legit option in the pen for the whole year.

 

Middle/Long: Garcia

Numbers: 11.0 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 5 BB, 8 K, 4 IR, 0 IRS, 0.76 G/F, 4.91/1.36/1.60

Why: Garcia didn't have great numbers while he was up, but it was in limited action and he had to pitch plenty each time out (5 G with 11 IP). The K/BB ratio is good, the WHIP is ok, and IRS percentage (0%!) is great. However, I'm not going to give credit to those stats when I'm fully planning on dismissing the others due to a small sample. Garcia does have a live arm, however, and after starting for plenty of time in the minors and being on the team to end last season he'll probably get first crack at the job. And I think he could perform to at least average standards if not better, though I fear he'll be an inconsistent type.

 

Now, assuming that we have four slots to fill, we have the following names to potentially slot in: Travis Bowyer, Kevin Gregg, Randy Messenger, Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco (long shot), Henry Owens, Matt Lindstrom, Mike Koplove, anyone else I'm forgetting. Now, assuming they're all healthy (and realizing that the arms we traded for were meant to be played), I could see it falling something like this:

 

Closer: R Lindstrom (live 100+ arm and developing secondary pitches, perfect fit)

Setup: L Tank

Fireman 1: R Owens (projected as a closer and apparently is already very good with two pitches)

Fireman 2: L Pinto

Middle: R Gregg

Middle/Long: R Garcia

Wild: R Mitre

 

That's assuming Bowyer comes back rusty, Nolasco is starting, and they finally realize Messenger blows. Not bad to me, and you could always interchange the last three spots with people who win it out of ST.

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I agree about Nolasco as a potential future reliever/closer. He was good in the pen early on (arguably better than he was as a starter). He's the #5 guy, and he seemed to "tire" at the end of the season more than anyone, with fewer innings pitched.

 

And this is one of the main reasons why I don't like the idea of shopping him around for trade if it's unnecessary. Even if someone else comes up to usurp his spot in the rotation (which some people think is inevitable), Nolasco is almost certainly going to convert to a reliever better than would other potential starting pitchers like Mitre & Petit, and we do have need of good bullpen arms.

 

Nolasco as a closer, long reliever, or spot starter would still be valuable even if we find a better guy for the rotation.

I wouldn't make any conclusions on Nolasco's stamina yet. This was his first season in the long major leagues and he switched roles (and thus training schedules) in the middle.

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