http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index...hName=Neyer_Rob

 

Marlins fishing for solutions

 

posted: Tuesday, April 10, 2007

 

First Josh Johnson goes down, and now Ricky Nolasco hits the DL.

Last season, by late June the Marlins' rotation included five pitchers who hadn't turned 25. Three of them were only 22. With the exception of Johnson, who went down in mid-September and hasn't pitched since, all the kids have been healthy until now. This, of course, isn't something we'd necessarily expect, which is why I didn't expect the Marlins to take another step forward this season.

 

Fortunately, the Marlins have more young pitchers in the pipeline. Unfortunately, none of them are what you'd call major league-ready. So 21-year-old Dutchman Rick Vanden Hurk is getting the call, with 150 professional innings to his credit, including only 25 last season (due to Tommy John surgery in 2005), and none of them above Single-A (he was supposed to make his first Double-A start last weekend).

 

Vanden Hurk is obviously talented, but I can't help but recall Logan Kensing, who was summoned from Single-A in the midst of a postseason race in 2004 and got shelled to the tune of a 12.66 ERA in three starts. Best of luck to the new kid, though; his parents flew all the way across the ocean yesterday to see him pitch against the Brewers.

 

This guy is pretty knowledgable about baseball. I like reading his blog and today he had this in his blog entry. Thought i'd share it. Nothing we didn't already knwo in here though.

I'm not a huge Rob Neyer fan, he's way too much of a PECOTA guy for my taste.

I'm not a huge Rob Neyer fan, he's way too much of a PECOTA guy for my taste.

 

I feel the same way. However, he was one of the few prognosticators last year that said the Marlins wouldn't lose 100 games. He said he would be surprised if they lost even 90 games.

I'm not a huge Rob Neyer fan, he's way too much of a PECOTA guy for my taste.

yep... I've spoken with him atleast 5 times... He is a huge stathead. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but he really doesn't like to look at the other side of the coin

I'm not a huge Rob Neyer fan, he's way too much of a PECOTA guy for my taste.

yep... I've spoken with him atleast 5 times... He is a huge stathead. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but he really doesn't like to look at the other side of the coin

 

And the thing that's the killer is he's overwhelmingly intelligent. By far one of the best "writers with a clue" in the national media (to coin a term) and it's just so damn frustrating to see a guy refuse to acknowledge so many aspects of the game that the stats revolution ignores.

 

Ah well, it's his job to write his opinion, and though I may not like reading it, he generally does a good job with his column.

I definitely prefer if a writer is closer to the sacred stats crowd than the clutch/energy/chemistry vein of thought.

At last years All Star break, Neyer wrote an article explaining what teams need to look for and Neyer wrote and also said on TV that the Marlins are in need of a second baseman. I haven't read anything from him since.

That makes you the idiot.

 

He was wrong. People are wrong. It was not completely wrong to assume that Dan Uggla wouldn't keep up his production.

I guess it's because of the low payroll, but people just keep trying to bury this team and the team just keeps proving them wrong. I hope I don't jinx him, but Vanden Hurk is having a pretty good game. I think in today's game people underestimate the importance of a good minor league system (players, coaches, scouts, etc) because of teams like the Yankees and Red Sox buying up players as fast as they can. The more writers say we are going to loose the more I think we'll win.

And the thing that's the killer is he's overwhelmingly intelligent. By far one of the best "writers with a clue" in the national media (to coin a term) and it's just so damn frustrating to see a guy refuse to acknowledge so many aspects of the game that the stats revolution ignores.

 

Ah well, it's his job to write his opinion, and though I may not like reading it, he generally does a good job with his column.

 

Anything stats can't explain is something there isn't a good enough stat for. Baseball, more than any other sport, is demostratable through stats because of the sample size. If one makes errors in judgement or player management based upon stats, then one is reading them improperly.

In my opinion stats are the best way to determine a players skill and value. The main weakness is that in order to do so you need a large sample size of stats. For example a player whos only played one season, had a great first half but then plays the whole second half with a nagging injury,the stats won't tell the whole story. Which is why stats should be the first thing to look at, but an analysis of a player should not end there.