Mike Berardino

 

September 14, 2007

MIAMI GARDENS

 

This was supposed to be a year of consolidation for the Marlins, a season to make sure all those wondrous breakthroughs of 2006 were no mirage.

 

If everything clicked just so, perhaps they would barge into another heady postseason. At the very worst, they would play right around break-even ball and serve notice to the rest of the baseball world that 2008 would be theirs.

 

Instead, as a highly disappointing summer wheezes to a shameful close, there seem to be more questions than answers.

 

 

 

Yes, there have been injuries. More than their share.

 

But that doesn't wipe away the uncertainty that clouds the future of this forlorn franchise. Nor does it erase the many questions that will hound the front office all winter.

 

Among them:

 

Can Dontrelle Willis rebound from this stunning tailspin? Should the Marlins slide a discounted multiyear offer his way now or do they attempt to trade him this winter for a package of players that could be more modest than they previously imagined?

 

Is Miguel Cabrera taking his Hall of Fame talent seriously enough? Or was his in-season weight gain a warning sign that he, too, should be shipped off for a boatload of cheap young talent before he breaks down physically?

 

What about the rotation? It looks like Josh Johnson will miss most if not all of next season following major elbow surgery, but what about Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco? Can they be counted on to regain their '06 form?

 

And if not, should the Marlins go out and get a couple of workhorse veterans to eat up the innings and protect their kids?

 

Should Jeremy Hermida's late-season surge be trusted? Or should he, too, be dangled this winter before his defensive woes scare off potential trade partners?

 

With Miguel Olivo likely gone, do they hand the catching job to Matt Treanor and pray he hits just enough? Or do they find a long-term answer (Seattle's Jeff Clement? The Angels' Jeff Mathis) on the trade market?

 

Those are the primary riddles regarding personnel. Pull back the lens and take in the bigger picture and the questions change.

 

What happens with the stadium? Does the Orange Bowl site get approved in the coming months? Or do the Marlins hold the line and keep demanding a downtown location, even as the clock keeps ticking to 2012 and beyond for the grand opening that never comes?

 

Does Jeffrey Loria pump up the payroll this winter? Does he keep Willis and Cabrera or just one of them or neither? Or does he hold payroll down in the $30 million range again while waiting for long-term answers on the stadium, etc?

 

Is Fredi Gonzalez the answer in the dugout? Does he have it in him to rip into a young roster when it fails to perform? Or is his players-first mentality too permissive for kids who are still finding their way?

 

And what about the horrible defense we've been subjected to watching the past two seasons? It wasn't such an issue in '06, when the Mini Marlins roared back from an 11-31 hole, but this year's "D" started out ugly and degenerated from there.

 

Is it merely a matter of tightening things up a bit? Of the kids getting used to Andy Fox's infield coaching in the wake of Perry Hill's sudden retirement?

 

Or is this group fundamentally flawed to the point where the organization's PSD mantra ? Pitching, Speed and Defense ? no longer applies?

 

And if that's the case, should the Marlins tweak their nucleus to alter the equation?

 

"We can't say one thing and then not believe in it," Marlins General Manager Admin Beinfest said earlier this summer. "If we talk about pitching and defense, then we'd better believe in it. Both of those areas have been a little deficient for us this year."

 

That doesn't even begin to cover it, not when Marlins starters rank 29th in the majors with a 5.48 ERA, and the club is about to break the franchise mark for unearned runs allowed.

 

As for the offense, all those home runs are great, but didn't this franchise win a World Series four years ago by limiting strikeouts and emphasizing the intricacies of the game?

 

"When we did the re-do a year and a half ago," Beinfest added, "obviously we were up against some other pressures and maybe weren't dealing in an ideal environment to get everything perfect."

 

On that point, no one would argue. But is this group good enough in all areas to get back to the playoffs?

 

That's one question I can answer. Beinfest and company still have more work to do in what could be another pivotal winter for South Florida baseball.

 

Mike Berardino can be reached at mberardino@sun-sentinel.com.

"When we did the re-do a year and a half ago," Beinfest added, "obviously we were up against some other pressures and maybe weren't dealing in an ideal environment to get everything perfect."

 

I have a real f'ing problem with that quote from Larro. You've had a YEAR AND A HALF. Two trade deadlines and an offseason since you saw "your" team play, and you sit on your hands?

 

Does no one else find it moronic that you admit that you don't feel that you have everything the way you like yet, yet you ignore three 'real' opportunities to take advantage of upgrades.

 

Try turning in a first draft of a research paper to a professor and tell him "well, when I started writing 3 months ago, I was under a lot of pressure. It isn't perfect." See how far that goes.

 

Dontrelle Willis would have brought a wealth of talent at the deadline, Miguel Olivo was money better off not spent, Scott Olsen or Josh Johnson could be Alex Rios, this abundance of young pitching we've insisted on not trading despite disproportionate depth keeps removing itself from the equation (thanks Rick!).

 

:banghead

I really think that there needs to be a coaching shake-up after this season. It doesn't necessarily have to be with the manager, although I would prefer that. Our defense has been horrendous all season, and I have not seen any signs that it is going to get better. The loss of Perry Hill dealt a huge blow to this defense, as we have clearly regressed from the last season.

 

I think that the front office has to share some blame for not making any moves to help our young guys, particularly the pitchers, this season. The only move they made was getting rid of Kim for a couple of weeks, which seemed to coinside with the beginning of our second-half slump.

 

I have to say that after the pleasant surprise of last year's team, which took away the disappointment of the lack of getting a stadium deal done, this season has really been awful.

 

You would think that logically, Loria would want to have the best team on the field as possible while negotiating for a stadium, just to boost his point. Instead, he seems to be doing the opposite, refusing to add any payroll, and almost certainly leading to the end of Dontrelle Willis in teal.

You would think that logically, Loria would want to have the best team on the field as possible while negotiating for a stadium, just to boost his point. Instead, he seems to be doing the opposite, refusing to add any payroll, and almost certainly leading to the end of Dontrelle Willis in teal.

 

Works both ways, if you have a good (read: expensive) team and are asking for a very large handout from a very tapped out state, you have to overly demonstrate need. Quite frankly, having a payroll in excess of $60 million isn't going to demonstrate that need.

 

What Loria/Samson have done, though, is a comedy of errors. They've shown that the Marlins can be sustainable with a high-payroll at Pro Player, they've shown they can be profitable with a low-payroll. At this point, there's nothing that they're going to be able to reflect upon the state, short of MLB explicitly threatening relocation, that's going to get the legislature to change their tune (and even then, we've seen relocation is met with a "good, get the f*** out of here.").

 

So, yes, it stands to reason that it would be far more beneficial to the Marlins that they are a good team that needs a stadium to be great, rather than they are a team that needs a baseball only stadium to just be legitimate.

I really think that there needs to be a coaching shake-up after this season. It doesn't necessarily have to be with the manager, although I would prefer that. Our defense has been horrendous all season, and I have not seen any signs that it is going to get better. The loss of Perry Hill dealt a huge blow to this defense, as we have clearly regressed from the last season.

 

I think that the front office has to share some blame for not making any moves to help our young guys, particularly the pitchers, this season. The only move they made was getting rid of Kim for a couple of weeks, which seemed to coinside with the beginning of our second-half slump.

 

I have to say that after the pleasant surprise of last year's team, which took away the disappointment of the lack of getting a stadium deal done, this season has really been awful.

 

You would think that logically, Loria would want to have the best team on the field as possible while negotiating for a stadium, just to boost his point. Instead, he seems to be doing the opposite, refusing to add any payroll, and almost certainly leading to the end of Dontrelle Willis in teal.

 

Does he really want a stadium ? I am starting to wonder if he really wants to move the franchise instead.

 

I just hope & pray he sells the team. Maybe he'll get frustrated enough to sell. :thumbup

We're not underachieving, we're achieving exactly as a team with a plethora of average pitching prospects who are all injury prone should be. Everyone seems to be oblivious to the fact that none of our young pitchers are truly high ceiling guys, and that an abundance of them doesn't make you a contender. If we had guys like Jon Lester, Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano (a bad example I know because he is out for the year) then I would be impressed but we don't.

I'd say Jon Lester actually is an average pitching prospect.

We're not underachieving, we're achieving exactly as a team with a plethora of average pitching prospects who are all injury prone should be. Everyone seems to be oblivious to the fact that none of our young pitchers are truly high ceiling guys, and that an abundance of them doesn't make you a contender. If we had guys like Jon Lester, Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano (a bad example I know because he is out for the year) then I would be impressed but we don't.

I agree with that. I remember during the '06 ST someone asked Mazzone what he thought of the young arms the Marlins had and he said all the young arms he liked were gone. Talent wise these guys don't compare with Beckett, Penny and AJ.

We're not underachieving, we're achieving exactly as a team with a plethora of average pitching prospects who are all injury prone should be. Everyone seems to be oblivious to the fact that none of our young pitchers are truly high ceiling guys, and that an abundance of them doesn't make you a contender. If we had guys like Jon Lester, Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano (a bad example I know because he is out for the year) then I would be impressed but we don't.

 

Anyone who gets paid for an opinion has regarded Olsen in very much the same light as any of the "high ceilinged" pitching prospects.

 

What you named (save Lester) are the elite pitching prospects. Quite frankly, we didn't lose 119 games (which is what it took for Verlander), and as such, the system reflects that.

 

I happen to think Sanchez is as good a #2/fringe #1 as you're going to find. I believe Volstad can be the same, and that Olsen and Willis can't possibly be this bad again next year.

 

The pitching doesn't concern me nearly as much as the thought that we're going to hold onto every single pitcher instead of trying to get better.

Miguel Cabrera did not gain weight in-season. He came in fat then lost some.

 

The team will be ok next year, I wouldn't say they are under achieving. Like I wouldn't call the Diamondbacks under achievers next year if they don't battle for the playoffs, they are simply over achieving this year.

 

The Marlins over achieved last year, and to hold them to the same standards would not be a smart. These are the growing pains every young franchise goes through.

Miguel Cabrera did not gain weight in-season. He came in fat then lost some.

 

No he didn't. He showed up in superhuman shape, strained an oblique, put on weight and then played himself back into gameshape.

Yes, Beinfest made mistakes in not moving Dontrelle for Clement and friends, or another package, at the break, and yes he should have addressed CF, which has literally been a black hole for two years and was very easy to predict, but that's the past. I'm not going to harp on it.

 

I don't see the big deal with articles like this and the future.

 

SS, 3B, and RF. Amazing

2B and LF, well above average

1B, he's good enough with some potential for now

3/4 bench slots (Amezaga, Cody, Treanor) are set.

 

We don't need to sign any pitchers. If anything, it's a REALLY REALLY low cost veteran who will probably be overtaken by a kid sometime in the summer at minimum. We can field a staff of 12 from - Dontrelle, Olsen, Mitre, Nolasco, R. Vanden Hurk, Gregg, Lindstrom, Pinto, Tank, Kensing, J. Miller, Gardner, Barone, C. Martinez, and H. Garcia. Let alone the big wild cards which will be the determination if we contend or not - G. Hernandez, C. Volstad, A. Sanchez, H. Owens, and J. Garcia. That is just ridiculous. There is so much talent in that group of 20 or so pitchers (without Johnson), the Marlins aren't going to have P problems for years. Yea, the pitchers sucked this year. You have to chalk it up to the team soph. slump, Dontrelle just who knows, and injuries. These guys are much better than they are playing, and when all the SP whips stabilize into the 1.30s or lower range, and the bullpen repeats this years success, there will be a a massive jump in improvement right away.

 

Which leaves four problem areas for the 2008 team.

1. A center fielder who can hit RHP and play defense, to platoon with Cody in center field

2. A starting catcher that can do anything positive offensively, even a .700 OPS. Preferably hit RHP hard and catch baseballs

3. Resign Aaron Boone, or get a replacement for him.

4. 25th guy on the bench is the winner of - Andino, Reggie, Carroll, Linden, Borchard, De Aza, and Wood. It would be nice if they can resign Boone (who can cover 2B and 3B and serve as a second infielder), if they just got a slugging bat here.

 

And that's it. The Marlins don't need to blow up the team. If they trade Dontrelle and Olsen, all they'll get is different projects. Both of those guys have succeeded at this level before. They'll be fine. Mitre is a solid 5. Someone of Gaby, Anibal, Nolasco, Volstad, and Vanden Hurk, will be a really great SP next year, maybe even more than one of them will. Talk about a BULLPEN when those SP guys are going to be fighting all those fireballing RP for time on the MLB squad come the summer.

 

We should cover 1-4 through free agency, and not make any major trade moves (unless something just amazing is offered). Then, at the break, god willingly two things happen. One we're a contender. Two, all the SP are healthy, the bullpen is set, and we simply don't have room for all the pitchers. We trade Dontrelle (even if he's balling, actually, ESPECIALLY if he's balling) to the highest bidder in the AL, and get a god damn young catcher or center fielder (or both) who can play right now. I wouldn't be opposed to trading Dontrelle in the offseason, but as it stands right now with uncertainty with Nolasco and Anibal, and high IP jumps for Mitre, Vanden Hurk, Gaby, and Volstad, it's probably safe to keep our 200 IP commodity until everyone has proved health. He has to go this July no matter what.

 

And that's that. Get anything out of C and CF, solidify the bench, and get all the pitchers heads on straight. This should be such an easy offseason. We have all the pieces besides the 4 complimentary ones we need. And if you want to be really technical about it, Boone will probably resign quick as I'm sure his market will not be huge, hopefully Linden or Reggie just decides they want to be at least a 5th OF, maybe someone thinks Olivo will hit even .250 with the power (note he has 9 HR in the second half in 137 AB), which really just leaves getting a platoon CF/4th OF. I can honestly see the Marlins adding 1 player this offseason, being that OF (Mackowiak? Wilkerson? C. Patterson? M. Bradley?), and seeing their run differential improve by over 100 runs just based on current player progression.

 

I say BAH to these articles.

They've shown that the Marlins can be sustainable with a high-payroll at Pro Player, they've shown they can be profitable with a low-payroll.

Obviously they haven't shown it to be sustainable if it lasted for all of 2 years (if that).

Nor have we've seen evidence that the Marlins were profitable without revenue sharing transfers.

They've shown that the Marlins can be sustainable with a high-payroll at Pro Player, they've shown they can be profitable with a low-payroll.

Obviously they haven't shown it to be sustainable if it lasted for all of 2 years (if that).

Nor have we've seen evidence that the Marlins were profitable without revenue sharing transfers.

 

So then are you suggesting that Loria negotiated long-term contracts in bad faith?

 

Surely a businessman as shrewd as he is would not enter into a financial contract he could not reasonably afford to see to its completion, would he not? After all, it seems reasonable to believe that from '00-'05, under the John Henry lease, a team with a payroll in excess of $40 million was easily afforded under the lease, otherwise Loria would not have arrived in the first place. He did, you will recall, inherit this lease, a team with a payroll in excess of $40 million, and no promise of a new stadium, and he acquired all of this willingly. So willingly, in fact, that he appropriated financing to do so. Surely he would not do this if it were not profitable, or at the very least tenable.

So then are you suggesting that Loria negotiated long-term contracts in bad faith?

 

Surely a businessman as shrewd as he is would not enter into a financial contract he could not reasonably afford to see to its completion, would he not? After all, it seems reasonable to believe that from '00-'05, under the John Henry lease, a team with a payroll in excess of $40 million was easily afforded under the lease, otherwise Loria would not have arrived in the first place. He did, you will recall, inherit this lease, a team with a payroll in excess of $40 million, and no promise of a new stadium, and he acquired all of this willingly. So willingly, in fact, that he appropriated financing to do so. Surely he would not do this if it were not profitable, or at the very least tenable.

 

It'll be interesting to see if someone can rebutt this. :mis2

Huge difference between end of season 2006 and 2007. Last year we had a top tier rotation and no bullpen, This year we have an unsettled rotation with a bonofide young bullpen with a world of potential. We still have no centerfielder and our catching situation is to to be closely evaluated. I believe Jake has done enough to continue as our starting 1st baseman in the spring. All other positions appeared set just the tweaking of the bench is to be determined. Woods and Linden may not be on our team next season. Cody and Amezaga should be a lock to be our top players off the bench

Huge difference between end of season 2006 and 2007. Last year we had a top tier rotation and no bullpen, This year we have an unsettled rotation with a bonofide young bullpen with a world of potential. We still have no centerfielder and our catching situation is to to be closely evaluated. I believe Jake has done enough to continue as our starting 1st baseman in the spring. All other positions appeared set just the tweaking of the bench is to be determined. Woods and Linden may not be on our team next season. Cody and Amezaga should be a lock to be our top players off the bench

 

Meh, with a few exceptions, your bullpen is only as good as the past week.

 

I don't buy into the notion of building around a bullpen. We know we've got one real good arm (Tank) one good arm (Miller) and then a bunch of interchangeable parts plus Lindstrom who is either brilliant or very hittable.

 

And if the bench doesn't get a big shakeup next year, we'll be in much the same position we were this year, best case scenario of .500 ball.

We're not underachieving, we're achieving exactly as a team with a plethora of average pitching prospects who are all injury prone should be. Everyone seems to be oblivious to the fact that none of our young pitchers are truly high ceiling guys, and that an abundance of them doesn't make you a contender. If we had guys like Jon Lester, Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano (a bad example I know because he is out for the year) then I would be impressed but we don't.

 

Anyone who gets paid for an opinion has regarded Olsen in very much the same light as any of the "high ceilinged" pitching prospects.

 

What you named (save Lester) are the elite pitching prospects. Quite frankly, we didn't lose 119 games (which is what it took for Verlander), and as such, the system reflects that.

 

I happen to think Sanchez is as good a #2/fringe #1 as you're going to find. I believe Volstad can be the same, and that Olsen and Willis can't possibly be this bad again next year.

 

The pitching doesn't concern me nearly as much as the thought that we're going to hold onto every single pitcher instead of trying to get better.

 

I realize that the guys are named are elite, but it takes one or two elite guys to really put an organization over the top. It took a Josh Beckett, a big game pitcher with a powerful arm and great stuff, to elevate his game and win the series. I just don't see any of the guys we have being that good, and I can't imagine counting on Olsen or D-Train in the playoffs.

They've shown that the Marlins can be sustainable with a high-payroll at Pro Player, they've shown they can be profitable with a low-payroll.

Obviously they haven't shown it to be sustainable if it lasted for all of 2 years (if that).

Nor have we've seen evidence that the Marlins were profitable without revenue sharing transfers.

 

So then are you suggesting that Loria negotiated long-term contracts in bad faith?

 

Surely a businessman as shrewd as he is would not enter into a financial contract he could not reasonably afford to see to its completion, would he not? After all, it seems reasonable to believe that from '00-'05, under the John Henry lease, a team with a payroll in excess of $40 million was easily afforded under the lease, otherwise Loria would not have arrived in the first place. He did, you will recall, inherit this lease, a team with a payroll in excess of $40 million, and no promise of a new stadium, and he acquired all of this willingly. So willingly, in fact, that he appropriated financing to do so. Surely he would not do this if it were not profitable, or at the very least tenable.

So what you're saying is that the Marlins didn't show, but rather suggested they could sustain such a payroll at PPS. Well, whose fault is that? It's the fans for believing the impossible. Loria made it painfully clear in frequent statements regarding the teams' future (did your selective memory forget that too?), that such practice was not sustainable at PPS. Those fans you were left disappointed had only themselves to blame.

 

Shrewd businessmen do it all the time. One need only to real estate prospectors or day traders. You're living on credit, managing your assets and flipping them as it becomes necessary. Shrewd businessmen also know their business. And when the state tells you they won't follow in the path of other municipalities, and you can easily trade Delgado for a set of respectable players making 1/10 the cost while you pursue other options to correct the franchises' problems, then you do it.

Shrewd businessmen also have confidence in their abilities to rise where others failed. That Henry couldn't get a stadium deal done shouldn't keep Loria from believing he could. Nor that he hasn't yet, that he can't.

 

TSwift, we're well aware that Loria entered into this willingly. But that doesn't make him incompetent for failing. It doesn't make him a bad guy for failing or continuing to try. Like it or not, Loria isn't a 1st baseman you can just trade or release if you don't like him. He's the owner of one of just 30 franchises of MLB. The only way he can be replaced is through the same way that Miami can be replaced as a MLB host city, by a decision by MLB and the blessing of the vast majority of other 29 owners. So, I suggest rather than fight a war you can never win, you align with the beast in a goal you both share: finding a resolution to keeping the Marlins in Florida that is agreeable to Loria AND MLB AND the local municipalities AND residents AND the team's fans. But it seems you've given up, because apparently no right-thinking person will ever take on the challenge of owning the Marlins.

They've shown that the Marlins can be sustainable with a high-payroll at Pro Player, they've shown they can be profitable with a low-payroll.

Obviously they haven't shown it to be sustainable if it lasted for all of 2 years (if that).

Nor have we've seen evidence that the Marlins were profitable without revenue sharing transfers.

 

So then are you suggesting that Loria negotiated long-term contracts in bad faith?

 

Surely a businessman as shrewd as he is would not enter into a financial contract he could not reasonably afford to see to its completion, would he not? After all, it seems reasonable to believe that from '00-'05, under the John Henry lease, a team with a payroll in excess of $40 million was easily afforded under the lease, otherwise Loria would not have arrived in the first place. He did, you will recall, inherit this lease, a team with a payroll in excess of $40 million, and no promise of a new stadium, and he acquired all of this willingly. So willingly, in fact, that he appropriated financing to do so. Surely he would not do this if it were not profitable, or at the very least tenable.

So what you're saying is that the Marlins didn't show, but rather suggested they could sustain such a payroll at PPS. Well, whose fault is that? It's the fans for believing the impossible. Loria made it painfully clear in frequent statements regarding the teams' future (did your selective memory forget that too?), that such practice was not sustainable at PPS. Those fans you were left disappointed had only themselves to blame.

 

Shrewd businessmen do it all the time. One need only to real estate prospectors or day traders. You're living on credit, managing your assets and flipping them as it becomes necessary. Shrewd businessmen also know their business. And when the state tells you they won't follow in the path of other municipalities, and you can easily trade Delgado for a set of respectable players making 1/10 the cost while you pursue other options to correct the franchises' problems, then you do it.

Shrewd businessmen also have confidence in their abilities to rise where others failed. That Henry couldn't get a stadium deal done shouldn't keep Loria from believing he could. Nor that he hasn't yet, that he can't.

 

TSwift, we're well aware that Loria entered into this willingly. But that doesn't make him incompetent for failing. It doesn't make him a bad guy for failing or continuing to try. Like it or not, Loria isn't a 1st baseman you can just trade or release if you don't like him. He's the owner of one of just 30 franchises of MLB. The only way he can be replaced is through the same way that Miami can be replaced as a MLB host city, by a decision by MLB and the blessing of the vast majority of other 29 owners. So, I suggest rather than fight a war you can never win, you align with the beast in a goal you both share: finding a resolution to keeping the Marlins in Florida that is agreeable to Loria AND MLB AND the local municipalities AND residents AND the team's fans. But it seems you've given up, because apparently no right-thinking person will ever take on the challenge of owning the Marlins.

 

Way to completely duck the question and turn it into an attack on me.

 

I don't care about Loria, Henry, Huizenga, Cisneros or any other businessman that is or has been linked to the Marlins.

 

I'm simply pointing out that the Marlins are evidently capably sustainable if a team owner chooses to act in good faith. Loria has not arguably acted in good faith since October of 2005. It's debatable that he was even acting in good faith before then. As such, he and he alone is the reason the Marlins are only viable in their current bastardized form.

 

He inherited a team that is identical to what he owns now. Because the business of baseball has improved markedly in the 5 years Loria has owned the team, one could argue it's a substantial better now, simply because of revenue sharing, than when he took over. No unexpected impediments to his business sprouted up over night. The lease was not unfavorably renegotiated, the fans did not leave, en masse, until he took clearly malicious actions against them. The teams he had from '03-'05 were easily sustainable and arguably profitable with the current and past financial landscape of the team.

"The teams he had from '03-'05 were easily sustainable and arguably profitable with the current and past financial landscape of the team."

 

How did you determine this?

And do you believe you are the appropriate person to determine this?

Last time I checked you weren't putting your butt, money and reputation on the line to develop a series of strategies to correct the team's problems.

You call it negotiating in bad faith, I call it taking a chance. You're the only one around here with a problem of faith if you believe this team is as doomed as you suggest.