September 28, 200718 yr Just some things to look at when it comes to the god-awful season that Olsen has had. Wanted to wait until his last start was over before doing it. The main thing to understand with these stats is that we don't have much to go by. There's this season, last season, 2005's very small sample size, and 2005's minor league games. LD%...there are three things a hitter can do at the plate: Hit a line drive, hit a ground ball, or hit a fly ball. Groundballs are generally the "best" ball hit because they have a high probability of becoming an out and can't become a homerun (like a FB can), whereas line drives are the worst because they have the highest probability of become a hit (roughly 75% of the time). People with high .BAA's have high LD%'s...and likewise, a pitcher with a low LD% with have a low .baa against. LD% isn't something that fluncuates very much, and it's one of the things that can result in a high/low BABIP. When a player's LD% fluncuates, thats when you see a great increase/decrease in .BAA. Olsen this year has a LD% of 23.7%. How bad is that? It's good for worst in the majors for qualifing players. The opponents are putting the bat on the ball easily against him. However, last year he had a respectable 18.2% (An elite percent is generally under 15%). In 2005 (in only 20 innings of work, so very small sample size, to be taken very lightly), he had a 13.8% LD rate. In the minors of 2005, according to minorleaguesplits, he would have had a 8% LD rate...but I have to assume that they're wrong in the LD/FB department, because he would have had a very low LD rate and a very high FB rate, and it's very unlikely his FB rate would be that high considering how low his HR rate was. What's interesting though is the percent of hits that become HRs. Last year, that % was 14.4. This year, it's 12.8. Ofcoarse the amount of HRs he's given up is higher, but that's also because the amount of hits he has given up is higher. When a player struggles at the magnitude that Olsen is, it's normally because of the long ball, so it's just interesting seeing that that isn't his problem. And although his walks have increased (2006:3.74, 2007:4.27 BB/9), it's not that much of an increase when you look at the increase over the amount of inn's he goes into a game (5.1 inn). In this case, he'd average 2.23 BB over that amount of INN with his 2006 ratio...this year it's 2.54. An increase is an increase but that little of an increase won't have that much of an impact. It basically means one extra walk every 3 starts. And as said in the Kazmir thread, his DER (Amount of balls in play turned into outs) is the worst in the majors at .659. Last year it was .720, which is a good %. One of the reasons for this is his high LD%. The second reason though is Florida's deffense, which is likely the second worst in the majors, behind Tampa Bay's. Without a doubt, if Florida's defense was better, Olsen would have peformed better. But it's not the sole proprietor in this crap heap. What's more depressing though is his K/9. Last year it was 8.27, in the minors it was 9.74 (have to expect a drop off from minors to majors due to more discipline in the majors). This year it's only 6.77. So basically? He hasn't pitched well (captain obvious away!). The K ratio is what shows it the most. That drop off, without a huge drop in walks, shows that he's just putting the ball in an area where hitters are having an easier time hitting off him, hence the higher LD%/.BAA against, but still pitching well enough to keep from giving up a lot of home runs. However, looking at his past, you have to say "this isn't him". His high K ratios and low .BAA against in the minors shows that he can make pitches that are difficult to hit. He would not have had the success he has had the previous 5 years if he pitched like this then. Last year, he put up similiar numbers that he had in the minors, with ofcoarse a drop off that you'd expect when facing major league talent. So, I just don't see Olsen being this bad against next year. Now when it comes to Willis, his DER, LD%, K/9, ect ect have always been pretty consistant throughout his career (Always some expected fluncuations, like a drop in DER this year, but it's not a substantial amount). This leads to his problems being easy to identify. The long ball. His HR/H percent: 2003:8.8 2004:9.5 2005:5.2 2006:9.0 2007:12.2 He had a great year in 2005 because he rarely gave up the longball. He's having a horible year this year because he's giving up a lot of homeruns. Meanwhile, 2003, 2004, and 2006 are all around the same. So, we can suspect that this is what he'd normally be, and ergo, he's a high 3 ERA pitcher. Now with Dontrelle, there's so many theories on why he's as bad as he is. Whichever is true, it comes down to him needing to stop giving up so many home runs, expecially when you consider where he calls home.
September 28, 200718 yr With Olsen I think the HRs allowed are a big problem... the 29 allowed are tied for 6th in the NL in a pitchers park... that's not good. During ST there were a couple of articles mentioning how last year hitters were fooled by his slider. Fredi was quoted in one of the articles. That supposedly they couldn't differentiate it from his fastball and because of it the OPS allowed off his slider was around .300 (no typo here). Well obviously I don't think hitters are having problems differentiating his pitches and unless he can start to fool them again I don't expect him to be any good unless he can start throwing his slider for a strike.
September 29, 200718 yr Just some things to look at when it comes to the god-awful season that Olsen has had. Wanted to wait until his last start was over before doing it. The main thing to understand with these stats is that we don't have much to go by. There's this season, last season, 2005's very small sample size, and 2005's minor league games. LD%...there are three things a hitter can do at the plate: Hit a line drive, hit a ground ball, or hit a fly ball. Groundballs are generally the "best" ball hit because they have a high probability of becoming an out and can't become a homerun (like a FB can), whereas line drives are the worst because they have the highest probability of become a hit (roughly 75% of the time). People with high .BAA's have high LD%'s...and likewise, a pitcher with a low LD% with have a low .baa against. LD% isn't something that fluncuates very much, and it's one of the things that can result in a high/low BABIP. When a player's LD% fluncuates, thats when you see a great increase/decrease in .BAA. Olsen this year has a LD% of 23.7%. How bad is that? It's good for worst in the majors for qualifing players. The opponents are putting the bat on the ball easily against him. However, last year he had a respectable 18.2% (An elite percent is generally under 15%). In 2005 (in only 20 innings of work, so very small sample size, to be taken very lightly), he had a 13.8% LD rate. In the minors of 2005, according to minorleaguesplits, he would have had a 8% LD rate...but I have to assume that they're wrong in the LD/FB department, because he would have had a very low LD rate and a very high FB rate, and it's very unlikely his FB rate would be that high considering how low his HR rate was. What's interesting though is the percent of hits that become HRs. Last year, that % was 14.4. This year, it's 12.8. Ofcoarse the amount of HRs he's given up is higher, but that's also because the amount of hits he has given up is higher. When a player struggles at the magnitude that Olsen is, it's normally because of the long ball, so it's just interesting seeing that that isn't his problem. And although his walks have increased (2006:3.74, 2007:4.27 BB/9), it's not that much of an increase when you look at the increase over the amount of inn's he goes into a game (5.1 inn). In this case, he'd average 2.23 BB over that amount of INN with his 2006 ratio...this year it's 2.54. An increase is an increase but that little of an increase won't have that much of an impact. It basically means one extra walk every 3 starts. And as said in the Kazmir thread, his DER (Amount of balls in play turned into outs) is the worst in the majors at .659. Last year it was .720, which is a good %. One of the reasons for this is his high LD%. The second reason though is Florida's deffense, which is likely the second worst in the majors, behind Tampa Bay's. Without a doubt, if Florida's defense was better, Olsen would have peformed better. But it's not the sole proprietor in this crap heap. What's more depressing though is his K/9. Last year it was 8.27, in the minors it was 9.74 (have to expect a drop off from minors to majors due to more discipline in the majors). This year it's only 6.77. So basically? He hasn't pitched well (captain obvious away!). The K ratio is what shows it the most. That drop off, without a huge drop in walks, shows that he's just putting the ball in an area where hitters are having an easier time hitting off him, hence the higher LD%/.BAA against, but still pitching well enough to keep from giving up a lot of home runs. However, looking at his past, you have to say "this isn't him". His high K ratios and low .BAA against in the minors shows that he can make pitches that are difficult to hit. He would not have had the success he has had the previous 5 years if he pitched like this then. Last year, he put up similiar numbers that he had in the minors, with ofcoarse a drop off that you'd expect when facing major league talent. So, I just don't see Olsen being this bad against next year. Now when it comes to Willis, his DER, LD%, K/9, ect ect have always been pretty consistant throughout his career (Always some expected fluncuations, like a drop in DER this year, but it's not a substantial amount). This leads to his problems being easy to identify. The long ball. His HR/H percent: 2003:8.8 2004:9.5 2005:5.2 2006:9.0 2007:12.2 He had a great year in 2005 because he rarely gave up the longball. He's having a horible year this year because he's giving up a lot of homeruns. Meanwhile, 2003, 2004, and 2006 are all around the same. So, we can suspect that this is what he'd normally be, and ergo, he's a high 3 ERA pitcher. Now with Dontrelle, there's so many theories on why he's as bad as he is. Whichever is true, it comes down to him needing to stop giving up so many home runs, expecially when you consider where he calls home. Dude where do you get this stuff? you really need to get out a bit more...Great info thanks
September 29, 200718 yr good write up dude really expected more info about willis seeing how there is a lot more focus on him but that olsen review was great
September 29, 200718 yr Just some things to look at when it comes to the god-awful season that Olsen has had. Wanted to wait until his last start was over before doing it. The main thing to understand with these stats is that we don't have much to go by. There's this season, last season, 2005's very small sample size, and 2005's minor league games. LD%...there are three things a hitter can do at the plate: Hit a line drive, hit a ground ball, or hit a fly ball. Groundballs are generally the "best" ball hit because they have a high probability of becoming an out and can't become a homerun (like a FB can), whereas line drives are the worst because they have the highest probability of become a hit (roughly 75% of the time). People with high .BAA's have high LD%'s...and likewise, a pitcher with a low LD% with have a low .baa against. LD% isn't something that fluncuates very much, and it's one of the things that can result in a high/low BABIP. When a player's LD% fluncuates, thats when you see a great increase/decrease in .BAA. Olsen this year has a LD% of 23.7%. How bad is that? It's good for worst in the majors for qualifing players. The opponents are putting the bat on the ball easily against him. However, last year he had a respectable 18.2% (An elite percent is generally under 15%). In 2005 (in only 20 innings of work, so very small sample size, to be taken very lightly), he had a 13.8% LD rate. In the minors of 2005, according to minorleaguesplits, he would have had a 8% LD rate...but I have to assume that they're wrong in the LD/FB department, because he would have had a very low LD rate and a very high FB rate, and it's very unlikely his FB rate would be that high considering how low his HR rate was. What's interesting though is the percent of hits that become HRs. Last year, that % was 14.4. This year, it's 12.8. Ofcoarse the amount of HRs he's given up is higher, but that's also because the amount of hits he has given up is higher. When a player struggles at the magnitude that Olsen is, it's normally because of the long ball, so it's just interesting seeing that that isn't his problem. And although his walks have increased (2006:3.74, 2007:4.27 BB/9), it's not that much of an increase when you look at the increase over the amount of inn's he goes into a game (5.1 inn). In this case, he'd average 2.23 BB over that amount of INN with his 2006 ratio...this year it's 2.54. An increase is an increase but that little of an increase won't have that much of an impact. It basically means one extra walk every 3 starts. And as said in the Kazmir thread, his DER (Amount of balls in play turned into outs) is the worst in the majors at .659. Last year it was .720, which is a good %. One of the reasons for this is his high LD%. The second reason though is Florida's deffense, which is likely the second worst in the majors, behind Tampa Bay's. Without a doubt, if Florida's defense was better, Olsen would have peformed better. But it's not the sole proprietor in this crap heap. What's more depressing though is his K/9. Last year it was 8.27, in the minors it was 9.74 (have to expect a drop off from minors to majors due to more discipline in the majors). This year it's only 6.77. So basically? He hasn't pitched well (captain obvious away!). The K ratio is what shows it the most. That drop off, without a huge drop in walks, shows that he's just putting the ball in an area where hitters are having an easier time hitting off him, hence the higher LD%/.BAA against, but still pitching well enough to keep from giving up a lot of home runs. However, looking at his past, you have to say "this isn't him". His high K ratios and low .BAA against in the minors shows that he can make pitches that are difficult to hit. He would not have had the success he has had the previous 5 years if he pitched like this then. Last year, he put up similiar numbers that he had in the minors, with ofcoarse a drop off that you'd expect when facing major league talent. So, I just don't see Olsen being this bad against next year. Now when it comes to Willis, his DER, LD%, K/9, ect ect have always been pretty consistant throughout his career (Always some expected fluncuations, like a drop in DER this year, but it's not a substantial amount). This leads to his problems being easy to identify. The long ball. His HR/H percent: 2003:8.8 2004:9.5 2005:5.2 2006:9.0 2007:12.2 He had a great year in 2005 because he rarely gave up the longball. He's having a horible year this year because he's giving up a lot of homeruns. Meanwhile, 2003, 2004, and 2006 are all around the same. So, we can suspect that this is what he'd normally be, and ergo, he's a high 3 ERA pitcher. Now with Dontrelle, there's so many theories on why he's as bad as he is. Whichever is true, it comes down to him needing to stop giving up so many home runs, expecially when you consider where he calls home. Dude where do you get this stuff? you really need to get out a bit more...Great info thanks Dude calm down, he work for the Marlins scouting department.
September 29, 200718 yr Just some things to look at when it comes to the god-awful season that Olsen has had. Wanted to wait until his last start was over before doing it. The main thing to understand with these stats is that we don't have much to go by. There's this season, last season, 2005's very small sample size, and 2005's minor league games. LD%...there are three things a hitter can do at the plate: Hit a line drive, hit a ground ball, or hit a fly ball. Groundballs are generally the "best" ball hit because they have a high probability of becoming an out and can't become a homerun (like a FB can), whereas line drives are the worst because they have the highest probability of become a hit (roughly 75% of the time). People with high .BAA's have high LD%'s...and likewise, a pitcher with a low LD% with have a low .baa against. LD% isn't something that fluncuates very much, and it's one of the things that can result in a high/low BABIP. When a player's LD% fluncuates, thats when you see a great increase/decrease in .BAA. Olsen this year has a LD% of 23.7%. How bad is that? It's good for worst in the majors for qualifing players. The opponents are putting the bat on the ball easily against him. However, last year he had a respectable 18.2% (An elite percent is generally under 15%). In 2005 (in only 20 innings of work, so very small sample size, to be taken very lightly), he had a 13.8% LD rate. In the minors of 2005, according to minorleaguesplits, he would have had a 8% LD rate...but I have to assume that they're wrong in the LD/FB department, because he would have had a very low LD rate and a very high FB rate, and it's very unlikely his FB rate would be that high considering how low his HR rate was. What's interesting though is the percent of hits that become HRs. Last year, that % was 14.4. This year, it's 12.8. Ofcoarse the amount of HRs he's given up is higher, but that's also because the amount of hits he has given up is higher. When a player struggles at the magnitude that Olsen is, it's normally because of the long ball, so it's just interesting seeing that that isn't his problem. And although his walks have increased (2006:3.74, 2007:4.27 BB/9), it's not that much of an increase when you look at the increase over the amount of inn's he goes into a game (5.1 inn). In this case, he'd average 2.23 BB over that amount of INN with his 2006 ratio...this year it's 2.54. An increase is an increase but that little of an increase won't have that much of an impact. It basically means one extra walk every 3 starts. And as said in the Kazmir thread, his DER (Amount of balls in play turned into outs) is the worst in the majors at .659. Last year it was .720, which is a good %. One of the reasons for this is his high LD%. The second reason though is Florida's deffense, which is likely the second worst in the majors, behind Tampa Bay's. Without a doubt, if Florida's defense was better, Olsen would have peformed better. But it's not the sole proprietor in this crap heap. What's more depressing though is his K/9. Last year it was 8.27, in the minors it was 9.74 (have to expect a drop off from minors to majors due to more discipline in the majors). This year it's only 6.77. So basically? He hasn't pitched well (captain obvious away!). The K ratio is what shows it the most. That drop off, without a huge drop in walks, shows that he's just putting the ball in an area where hitters are having an easier time hitting off him, hence the higher LD%/.BAA against, but still pitching well enough to keep from giving up a lot of home runs. However, looking at his past, you have to say "this isn't him". His high K ratios and low .BAA against in the minors shows that he can make pitches that are difficult to hit. He would not have had the success he has had the previous 5 years if he pitched like this then. Last year, he put up similiar numbers that he had in the minors, with ofcoarse a drop off that you'd expect when facing major league talent. So, I just don't see Olsen being this bad against next year. Now when it comes to Willis, his DER, LD%, K/9, ect ect have always been pretty consistant throughout his career (Always some expected fluncuations, like a drop in DER this year, but it's not a substantial amount). This leads to his problems being easy to identify. The long ball. His HR/H percent: 2003:8.8 2004:9.5 2005:5.2 2006:9.0 2007:12.2 He had a great year in 2005 because he rarely gave up the longball. He's having a horible year this year because he's giving up a lot of homeruns. Meanwhile, 2003, 2004, and 2006 are all around the same. So, we can suspect that this is what he'd normally be, and ergo, he's a high 3 ERA pitcher. Now with Dontrelle, there's so many theories on why he's as bad as he is. Whichever is true, it comes down to him needing to stop giving up so many home runs, expecially when you consider where he calls home. Dude where do you get this stuff? you really need to get out a bit more...Great info thanks Dude calm down, he work for the Marlins scouting department. Dude I was just kidding ...everyone is so serious around here sometimes
September 29, 200718 yr Author http://hardballtimes.com/ http://fangraphs.com/ http://www.fieldingbible.com/ http://actasports.com/sows.php http://www.espn.com http://www.baseballreference.com http://www.thebaseballcube.com http://www.minorleaguesplits.com if one site doesn't have something, another probably does. With Olsen I think the HRs allowed are a big problem... the 29 allowed are tied for 6th in the NL in a pitchers park... that's not good. He also only gave up 23 HRs last year (Least given up by qualified players was 20), and is giving up HRs at a smaller rate. It's not the amount but the rate that I'm worried about.
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