January 3rd. The first big caucus/primary of the 2008 political election. It seemed like for the longest time, we were talking about how it was too early to talk about it. Now it is almost here. Two things usually happen. Either the person that wins Iowa gains so much momentum that they run away with it(John Kerry), or the victor in Iowa continues to face a bruising battle and eventually someone else rises(B. Clinton).

 

That does anyone else have some predictions on who will be the respective nominees??

 

My predictions:

 

1. Mitt Romney wins Iowa, wins NH, wins SC, loses some moderate states to Rudy, but then wins it all out.

 

2. Hillary's slip becomes just that, a slip. Her opponents punch too early and she regains her momentum and wins it on the dem side.

 

Mitt v. Hillary in the general election. It will be another divisive bitterly contested general election. 2-3 bullpen posters will either be banned or will flee from the carnage. It will once again come down to the big three of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, with Hillary's best chances being a takeover of Ohio.

 

That said, I still like Obama much more. But his operation is struggling so far.

I think Rudy vs Hillary would be the 'match of the century', but I'm thinking Romney does have a good shot...and although I want Obama, I just can't get a feel for it right now.

 

Barring a Dean-like maneuver, I say Hilary gets it.

Man I hope it isn't Romney. I can take Rudy more or less but Romney does nothing for me. I may abstain if he is the nominee.

Romney vs. Hillary would not excite me at all.

I think Rudy is the best chance the Republicans have of winning the Oval office. If its Romney vs Clinton, I feel Clinton wins in a landslide. I actually like Romney a lot but he is a lot like Kerry in that he seems too much like a politician, not genuine enough.

 

What ever happened to the Florida primary and the Democrats? Did that issue ever get resolved?

What ever happened to the Florida primary and the Democrats? Did that issue ever get resolved?

Looks like it's going to happen January 29th as planned, which is excellent.

As much as I like Obama, he has not done enough to draw a distinction between himself and Hillary. Unfortunately, his promise to avoid the mudslinging all too common in politics today is probably hurting him now. It limits his options in responding to Hillary's moves.

 

I would also agree that Romney feels like the GOP's version of John Kerry. However, he has managed to avoid getting hammered for things like the hunting fiasco.

That was my early prediction as well, Romney-Hillary. Doesn't particularly excite me. McCain-Obama I would like.

 

Is there any way at all McCain gets back into this? He did get Brownback's endorsement, which means about nothing.

 

John McCain and even Huckabee for that matter just seem like such more traditional conservative candidates than Romney and Guiliani, plus they're actually likeable.

 

McCain has just pennies left though apparently.

That was my early prediction as well, Romney-Hillary.

 

Is there any way at all McCain gets back into this?

He is actually the guy I support the most at this point, but I think it is too little too late, even though nationally RCP is putting him 2nd right now (Romney 4th).

 

I really missed the boat with John McCain. The man was almost prophetic about the war and calling out Rumsfeld and the administration early and often.

That was my early prediction as well, Romney-Hillary. Doesn't particularly excite me. McCain-Obama I would like.

 

Is there any way at all McCain gets back into this? He did get Brownback's endorsement, which means about nothing.

 

John McCain and even Huckabee for that matter just seem like such more traditional conservative candidates than Romney and Guiliani, plus they're actually likeable.

 

McCain has just pennies left though apparently.

I don't think McCain has much of a chance to get back into this thing, and this is coming from a huge supporter of his. He's running out of money and he lost too much ground. I'm really upset about the direction his campaign has headed since he announced. He got alot of bad advice from people who wanted him to act like a mainstream candidate and move away from the style of campaigning that made him a legitimate contender in 2000.

McCain's campaign went downhill as soon as he started saying he wanted to send more troops into Iraq.

 

I used to respect him a lot more a few years ago, but clearly he has sacrificed his beliefs for one last try at the Oval Office.

Romney vs. Clinton 08 = Fritz writing in a vote for Ron Paul

 

What a couple of lame, uninspiring candidates. Yeesh.

2000 was really McCain's moment I guess.

 

Even though Republicans got a 2-term president out of Bush, I think the past 8 years would've looked very different under McCain.

 

I think there was a big missed opportunity there.

McCain's campaign went downhill as soon as he started saying he wanted to send more troops into Iraq.

 

I used to respect him a lot more a few years ago, but clearly he has sacrificed his beliefs for one last try at the Oval Office.

McCain has changed none of his views on the war, you just made that up.

McCain's campaign went downhill as soon as he started saying he wanted to send more troops into Iraq.

 

I used to respect him a lot more a few years ago, but clearly he has sacrificed his beliefs for one last try at the Oval Office.

I can understand how that would affect his chances in a general election, but how would that necessarily derail his campaign for the GOP nomination? Every GOP candidate with a shot at the nomincation is in favor of the same thing.

 

Additionally, which viewpoints has he sacrificed for a run at the presidency? Sticking to his beliefs on immigration essentially killed his campaign. If you're talking about the war, he's been critical of the way in which the war has been waged not whether the war needed to be waged. I think he's been pretty consistent on that point since Day 1.

McCain folded on the torture issue a couple years ago, and it disappointed me hugely. He's still my favorite of the Repubs, though, and I'd love to see him get the nom. I kind of wonder how different the world would be if McCain hadn't lost in 2000.

 

I really don't think Rudy can win an election. I guess Pat Robertson just endorsed him yesterday, which should help, but he's got a lot of baggage, what with all the personal stuff and the crossdressing and a lot of pre-9/11 issues as mayor.

 

I'm pulling for Obama, but I like Hillary just fine. Whatever. The election can't get here soon enough.

What do you mean by 'folded' on the torture issue?

yeah I don't recall that either.

 

I always remembered him being against any form of torture. The whole "it's not about them, it's about us" speech. One of the reasons I held him in such high regard.

What do you mean by 'folded' on the torture issue?

 

Well, here's an obviously biased account of what I'm talking about, but I still agree with the gist of it, except the last paragraph:

 

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2006/09/28/c...people-forever/

 

Here's the thread wherein I originally bitched about it:

 

http://www.marlinbaseball.com/forums/index...4&hl=mccain

Basically what happened was that McCain fought loudly and for a long time against the bill, there was a compromise bill that gave McCain a lot of what he wanted, but Bush then made his own changes that basically reversed all of the changes that McCain fought for, and McCain endorsed the bill anyway. I call that a fold; call it what you want. He's still better on this issue then almost everyone else, but this is a man folding on his principles in a very, very big way, and it's particuarly disappointing for a man who has always run on his principles.

The Romney-Hillary thing is just an outside educated guess. These elections are all over the place. It could end up being Richardson vs. Huckabee vs.Paul. Who knows.

Ah yes, I do recall that now Mabs. Well regardless McCain's out of steam apparently, and more importantly out of money.

 

It'll be down to Romney & Rudy, I'm not sure who I could stomach of the two.

 

At this point I guess I'm leaning Obama. I wish Dodd, Richardson, or Biden would've gotten some damn traction.

I'm sorry, but McCain was opposed to this war until January of this year. Then his rhetoric started to go towards increasing the number of troops in Iraq. That gave his poll numbers a big hit. I can guarantee that 70%+ of the general population wants less troops in Iraq, not more.

What do you mean by 'folded' on the torture issue?

 

Well, here's an obviously biased account of what I'm talking about, but I still agree with the gist of it, except the last paragraph:

 

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2006/09/28/c...people-forever/

 

Here's the thread wherein I originally bitched about it:

 

http://www.marlinbaseball.com/forums/index...4&hl=mccain

Thanks.

 

FWIW, I wasn't calling you out on it, I just didn't know what you were referring to.

 

I'm sorry, but McCain was opposed to this war until January of this year. Then his rhetoric started to go towards increasing the number of troops in Iraq. That gave his poll numbers a big hit. I can guarantee that 70%+ of the general population wants less troops in Iraq, not more.

He NEVER opposed the war, he opposed the HANDLING of the war. Two different things.

 

That last line is pointless and has nothing to do with anything. If he believes in a surge, why should he care what (your made up, but probably correct) 70% of Americans think. If he belives in that, he should run with that. I like a candidate who doesn't pander.

McCain never said anything about escalation of the war until his Presidential campaign geared up.