Suddenly, Huckabee Is in Romney's Rearview Mirror

Polls Show That The Two Are in Virtual Tie in Iowa

 

By Michael D. Shear and Juliet Eilperin

Washington Post Staff Writers

Sunday, November 25, 2007; A06

 

DES MOINES, Nov. 24 -- For six months, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has owned Iowa.

 

He spent millions on TV and unleashed his extended family to blanket the state. He survived a farm-town blitz by Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) and the late entrance of former Tennessee senator Fred D. Thompson into the Republican race. Romney's money and organization bought him a convincing victory at the Ames presidential straw poll and a seemingly unshakable lead in the Iowa survey.

 

But his vision of quick, one-two victories here and in New Hampshire is crumbling, suddenly threatened by former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, a candidate who spent most of 2007 out of the spotlight and has struggled to raise money. Polls now show the pair in a virtual tie in Iowa, a development that not only threatens Romney's carefully laid plans but could reshape the entire GOP nominating contest.

 

Huckabee has received glowing reviews for his debate performances, showing off his folksy charm and playing to conservatives. But despite his second-place showing in the straw poll this summer, his campaign didn't take off until this month, when polls began to show him overtaking everyone but Romney in Iowa. Money started flowing in -- $1 million online in less than one week, according to his campaign -- and he started to catch the attention of both pundits and rivals.

 

"There is nothing like winning," said Bob Vander Plaats, Huckabee's Iowa chairman. "If we come in second, that's a story. If we beat Romney, the whole universe just changed."

 

Huckabee's surge in Iowa has further scrambled a race that already defied easy prediction. Former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani has consistently led national polls testing the Republican field, drawing on his name recognition and his performance after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. But the GOP contest remains competitive in New Hampshire, wide open in South Carolina, and now Iowa is up for grabs.

 

Even Huckabee appears to have been caught unprepared by the sudden turn of events. His Iowa state director is in Costa Rica hunting snakes over the Thanksgiving weekend and won't return to the state until tomorrow. On Friday afternoon, Huckabee's Iowa headquarters at the corner of Locust and 6th in downtown Des Moines was locked and deserted.

 

"How much can you do on America's number one shopping day?" Vander Plaats explained, saying the staff will gear up the office again on Monday. "Other than the morning of Christmas, it's their last breath of oxygen."

 

With just a few weeks remaining before the Iowa caucuses, Huckabee is frantically trying to organize his supporters in the Hawkeye State. They include a network of evangelical Christians who like Huckabee's antiabortion, anti-same-sex marriage rhetoric, home-school activists who appreciate the work he did for their cause in Arkansas, gun-rights groups, and advocates of replacing the income tax with a national sales tax, an idea that Huckabee has championed.

 

His political enemies -- no shortage of whom have popped up in recent days -- have gone on the offensive, accusing Huckabee of numerous tax increases, ethics violations and an ill-advised pardon. The Club for Growth, a conservative anti-tax group in Washington, has all but turned itself into an anti-Huckabee machine. The Eagle Forum's Phyllis Schlafly charges that Huckabee "destroyed the conservative movement in Arkansas."

 

"He's one of them. He's an evangelical," a senior strategist for a rival campaign said in explaining Huckabee's strength among conservatives in Iowa. "What they don't understand yet is that he is a fiscal liberal. They haven't figured that out."

 

Huckabee supporters say the attacks are boosting his appeal by elevating him to the status of top-tier contender and a man who must be taken seriously. "The Iowa people will now say he must be credible; otherwise, they wouldn't be shooting at him," Vander Plaats said.

 

An ordained Baptist minister with a Southern drawl, Huckabee and his campaign believe that much of his newfound support comes from the state's conservative Christians, many of whom lost their candidate when Brownback dropped out in October. Some estimates say evangelicals could make up 40 percent of GOP caucus attendees.

 

"That is his base. You consolidate that base in a year when the turnout is going to be pretty low, that's a pretty good base to have," said one longtime Iowa Republican who asked to remain anonymous to talk frankly about the candidates. He said religious voters had been disappointed by Thompson's campaign and the decision of former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) not to run this year. "Huckabee is kind of what's left standing."

 

Some members of the influential Iowa Christian Alliance have been helping Huckabee reach out to the state's churches and pastors.

 

"The most loyal and largest voting bloc the Republican Party has are pro-life voters . . . marriage issues, family issues," said Steve Deace, a Christian conservative radio personality who has turned his talk show into a daily pro-Huckabee showcase. "Those are issues of priority for us. Mike, by far -- and it's not even close -- has the most consistently positive positions."

 

On one recent show, Deace called on national evangelical leaders such as Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council and James Dobson of Focus on the Family to endorse Huckabee. "Stop playing games," he urged. "If we rally around him, he could win. Maybe you're like me. I'm tired of plugging my nose and voting for someone."

 

The high-profile endorsements have not yet followed, but Romney is taking Huckabee seriously enough that he now mentions him by name as he critiques his record.

 

Campaigning Saturday in Derry, N.H., Romney aligned himself with Huckabee on "family, on marriage and the Second Amendment," then launched into a lengthy rebuke of Huckabee's fiscal policies. When it comes to fiscal issues, Romney added, "Republican voters are looking for a conservative, and he is a liberal. I'm a conservative."

 

"I've never bought into the story line where it was Mitt Romney and everybody else biting at our ankles," said Dave Kochel, a senior Romney adviser in Iowa. In his state, Kochel added, "It's always competitive."

 

In a Washington Post/ABC News poll released last week, 28 percent of probable caucus voters preferred Romney, while 24 percent backed Huckabee. Iowa Republicans chose Huckabee as the politician who most understands their problems and, along with Romney, is seen as the most honest of those running for the nomination. And almost twice as many of Huckabee's supporters said they are "very enthusiastic" about his candidacy than did Romney's.

 

But Huckabee comes in fifth on the question of who has the experience to be president and also ranks low when voters are asked who has the best chance of getting elected.

 

Steve Scheffler, who heads the Iowa Christian Alliance and is a veteran of three prior presidential campaigns in the state, said he wonders whether Huckabee has the resources to make sure his supporters show up for the caucuses on Jan. 3. Only about 100,000 of Iowa's 3 million residents are expected to vote in the GOP caucuses.

 

"Does he have the staff to identify more of those people and actually deliver people to the caucus?" asked Scheffler, who is neutral in the primary. Even if he wins, "where does he go after that with no money?"

 

His rivals have out-raised him by tens of millions of dollars and have built sophisticated campaign organizations in the early states. This year's campaign calendar -- which packs almost all of the presidential voting into a five-week period -- will hardly give Huckabee a chance to ramp up after a win in Iowa.

 

Without the funds to lay the kind of groundwork other candidates are laying in South Carolina, the former Arkansas governor is relying on a sort of "viral marketing" there, in which supporters e-mail information about Huckabee to their friends, said Rep. Bob Inglis (S.C.), a supporter. By contrast, Romney is blitzing South Carolina Republicans with expensive mailings that tout his tough stance on issues such as immigration, and has blanketed the state with television ads.

 

Huckabee's backers see a strong showing in Iowa as key to the former governor's chances in South Carolina and other states. "He's really going to be relying on the media lift that comes from coming close to winning in Iowa and placing in New Hampshire," Inglis said.

 

But as in Iowa, the Christian conservatives will determine whether Huckabee will extend his reach into South Carolina.

 

"The values voters and the Christian voters are the ones he's really resonating with, that are going to be his support down here," said Mike Campbell, Huckabee's state campaign chairman and the son of former governor Carroll Campbell.

 

Eilperin reported from Summersville, S.C. Staff writer David S. Broder contributed to this report from Derry, N.H.

Source

Just what the country needs these days, a social conservative and a fiscal liberal. Now THERE's a winning combination....

Just what the country needs these days, a social conservative and a fiscal liberal. Now THERE's a winning combination....

Definitely a scary combo.

Agreed. I really cannot understand any of the appeal of Huckabee outside of the Fundamentalist "Christians".

I don't mind the fairtax.

How ridiculous. So he's gaining ground because he opposes same sex marriages and abortion...yaaaaaaaaaay.

Agreed. I really cannot understand any of the appeal of Huckabee outside of the Fundamentalist "Christians".

Why did Christians need to be put in to quotes?

How ridiculous. So he's gaining ground because he opposes same sex marriages and abortion...yaaaaaaaaaay.

ZOMG, someone has different views in a candidate than you!

Agreed. I really cannot understand any of the appeal of Huckabee outside of the Fundamentalist "Christians".

Why did Christians need to be put in to quotes?

I think he did that because they certainly don't always act very Christian.

Agreed. I really cannot understand any of the appeal of Huckabee outside of the Fundamentalist "Christians".

Why did Christians need to be put in to quotes?

I think he did that because they certainly don't always act very Christian.

:banghead

Agreed. I really cannot understand any of the appeal of Huckabee outside of the Fundamentalist "Christians".

Why did Christians need to be put in to quotes?

I think he did that because they certainly don't always act very Christian.

:banghead

Not ALL of them.

How ridiculous. So he's gaining ground because he opposes same sex marriages and abortion...yaaaaaaaaaay.

ZOMG, someone has different views in a candidate than you!

 

Its ridiculous that same sex marriage is an 'issue' being discussed in a Presidential election. Even more ridiculous that a candidate's stance on same sex marriage is enough to sway a considerable amount of votes his way, as if it matters.

 

Someone can have a different view than me on this. That someone would be an idiot.

I agree with you 100% on that.

 

Still don't like your original post.

I like Huckabee due to the fair tax, his emphasis on energy independence, immigration, veteran's rights, and gun rights.

I don't mind the fairtax.

The fairtax and his stance on gun ownership are definite pluses (his stance on immigration is questionable because he pandered to illegals as governor). He is the only prez candidate, as far as I know, to carry a concealed firearm everywhere he goes. Furthermore, he endorses a federal carry law. If the government can abuse the commerce clause to protect civil rights, I do not see why they cannot protect the right to bear arms.

 

As long as the 14th amendment exists, localities have no right to abrogate the right to bear arms.

Agreed. I really cannot understand any of the appeal of Huckabee outside of the Fundamentalist "Christians".

Why did Christians need to be put in to quotes?

For reasons given, and for many such people's assertiveness that only they can define who is a Christian. As a Mormon (a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints), many such folks will say that I am not a Christian because I do not accept the Bible as infallible or exclusive, I believe in modern revelation, that what you do in life actually impacts your salvation & exaltation, and I reject that confusing co-substantial part of the trinity doctrine. Nevermind that I still read the Bible, actually think obedience to the commandments matters, that all other scripture I accept testifies of Christ, and that every prayer I offer I do so in Christ's name. And yet I am not Christian. Most of all though, having been raised Catholic, I find it laughable that Protestants especially in these discussions describe themselves as "Traditional Christians" when they didn't even exist before the 1500s.

 

So if their definition of a Christian will be more nuanced and complex than simply someone who believes in Jesus Christ, so will mine.

"Now John answered Him, saying, ?Teacher, we saw someone who does not follow us casting out demons in Your name, and we forbade him because he does not follow us.? But Jesus said, ?Do not forbid him, for no one who works a miracle in My name can soon afterward speak evil of Me. For he who is not against us is on our side. For whoever gives you a cup of water to drink in My name, because you belong to Christ, assuredly, I say to you, he will by no means lose his reward."

Mark 9:38-41

Agreed. I really cannot understand any of the appeal of Huckabee outside of the Fundamentalist "Christians".

Why did Christians need to be put in to quotes?

For reasons given, and for many such people's assertiveness that only they can define who is a Christian. As a Mormon (a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints)

 

 

Surprised to see a Latter-day Saint not behind Mitt Romney. How does your church take that? Are they following the election much and talking up Mitt? What are your thoughts on him?

Agreed. I really cannot understand any of the appeal of Huckabee outside of the Fundamentalist "Christians".

Why did Christians need to be put in to quotes?

For reasons given, and for many such people's assertiveness that only they can define who is a Christian. As a Mormon (a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints)

 

 

Surprised to see a Latter-day Saint not behind Mitt Romney. How does your church take that? Are they following the election much and talking up Mitt? What are your thoughts on him?

The Church learned a long time ago that it should stay politically neutral, at least officially. Some folks back home I remember being excited about Romney, I don't see it much in my ward up here (near DC).

For my part, I am dissapointed in Romney.

Agreed. I really cannot understand any of the appeal of Huckabee outside of the Fundamentalist "Christians".

Why did Christians need to be put in to quotes?

For reasons given, and for many such people's assertiveness that only they can define who is a Christian. As a Mormon (a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints)

 

 

Surprised to see a Latter-day Saint not behind Mitt Romney. How does your church take that? Are they following the election much and talking up Mitt? What are your thoughts on him?

The Church learned a long time ago that it should stay politically neutral, at least officially. Some folks back home I remember being excited about Romney, I don't see it much in my ward up here (near DC).

For my part, I am dissapointed in Romney.

 

 

Interesting. I admit total ignorance on this subject, but I just always assumed the LDS's were completely backing him and campaigning for him strongly. Is he active in the church?

Interesting. I admit total ignorance on this subject, but I just always assumed the LDS's were completely backing him and campaigning for him strongly. Is he active in the church?

To the best of my knowledge he is fully active, but as the Church is neutral in these matters, you can't say one way or the other. Obviously he has special appeal to LDS Republicans. But all LDS are not so. Senator Harry Reid is also a Mormon. I doubt Romney is his pick for the White House, nor for most other LDS Democrats.

I like Huckabee due to the fair tax, his emphasis on energy independence, immigration, veteran's rights, and gun rights.

 

What's his position re: immigration?

A church may lose it's non-profit status if it endorses a particular candidate (and definitely does so if it gives political contributions).

A church may lose it's non-profit status if it endorses a particular candidate (and definitely does so if it gives political contributions).

Plenty of evangelical churches and organizations openly endorse candidates, promote them using their membership lists, and invite the to campaign from their pulpits (as did Huckabee recently in Iowa I believe).

 

We do none of those things. We lost much more than non-profit status in the past.

A church may lose it's non-profit status if it endorses a particular candidate (and definitely does so if it gives political contributions).

Plenty of evangelical churches and organizations openly endorse candidates, promote them using their membership lists, and invite the to campaign from their pulpits (as did Huckabee recently in Iowa I believe).

 

We do none of those things. We lost much more than non-profit status in the past.

 

They get away with it, then. The Internal Revenue Code says otherwise. But, of course, I am no expert, so there must be a loophole somewhere.