There is a possibility that South Florida could be affected by some sort of tropical distrubance early next week. The disturbance, which is not even a depression as of yet, is situated east of Puerto Rico. It is too early to tell how big this disburbance will become or where exactly it will go. If it becomes the next named storm, its name would be Fay.

 

Link

yesterday there was about a 20% chance it would hit south florida, any updates on that and the chance it develops and hits?

293

WHXX01 KWBC 152000

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2000 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

 

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

 

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080815 1800 UTC

000

WTNT21 KNHC 152030

TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008

2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

 

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR

THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH

COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS

ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES

NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

 

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO

DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

 

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS. A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

 

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 69.4W AT 15/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.

34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

 

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 69.4W AT 15/2100Z

AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 68.6W

 

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.9N 71.3W...INLAND

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.4N 74.1W...OVER WATER

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.2W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 81.0W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

 

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 82.0W...OVER COAST OF FLORIDA

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

 

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W...INLAND OVER FLORIDA

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

 

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 69.4W

 

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

 

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

After watching the 5pm news, the whole state is in the cone of era. Looks like late Monday/Early Tuesday it will effect us as a Tropical Storm or maybe a hurricane, but they can't predict the strength!

this is exciting for me, because my apartment is secure and it will be my first hurricane (if it happens)

this is exciting for me, because my apartment is secure and it will be my first hurricane (if it happens)

 

LOL exciting? Well make sure you have plenty of stuff to keep you busy for when the power goes off. I have been through three of them, it can be fun having hurricane parties!

this is exciting for me, because my apartment is secure and it will be my first hurricane (if it happens)

 

LOL exciting? Well make sure you have plenty of stuff to keep you busy for when the power goes off. I have been through three of them, it can be fun having hurricane parties!

Since it is my first one I am excited, but I know I wouldn't be otherwise and because I know I am in a secure place with not much to worry about I will try to enjoy it. Hopefully its a short and quick one

As long as your apartment building isn't picked up, and lands on the other side of the rainbow, im sure you'll be ok!

new pictures up on sun-sentinel. I do not really know what they mean, but it looks like the bulk of the storm will be on the gulf side. Correct me if I am wrong.

this is exciting for me, because my apartment is secure and it will be my first hurricane (if it happens)

 

LOL exciting? Well make sure you have plenty of stuff to keep you busy for when the power goes off. I have been through three of them, it can be fun having hurricane parties!

 

Im "excited" for this since it will be my A) last storm as a florida resident (going to college up in Pennsylvania) and B) we have a whole house generator!!

Cuba southeast radar

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=P.../gpdMAXw01a.gif

CNN reports decent chance of Fay going more west than expected and just dying out in the gulf.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 161435

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008

1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

 

...CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM HAITI...NEW WARNINGS AND

WATCHES ISSUED...

 

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A

HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...

AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36

HOURS.

 

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS

TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO IS IN EFFECT

FOE THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND

GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND

CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF

HAITI.

 

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. ALSO....THE GOVERNMENT OF THE

CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN

ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN

36 HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

 

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA

PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 95

MILES...155 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT

130 MILES...205 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

 

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY

WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES

CENTRAL CUBA ON SUNDAY.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

 

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE

WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

 

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8

INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND

THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15

INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS

AND MUD SLIDES.

 

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...19.0 N...73.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500

PM EDT.

 

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

i have a question...what area will more likely be hit, south florida or the carolinas? just asking.

i have a question...what area will more likely be hit, south florida or the carolinas? just asking.

Looks like it is going west, so the gulf, panhandle, georgia etc...

:lol

School starts Monday, and I might have an early day off.

i have a question...what area will more likely be hit, south florida or the carolinas? just asking.

 

Looks like for now the West Coast of Florida, but it will still effect the whole whole state, depending on the strength and size of the storm, how far the winds extend. And the track can always change right before it hits, happened to me in 2004!

Could go anywhere.

Yess this is good and bad

 

Good cuz no school on mon and tues bad cuz i have to put up shutters

 

o and thanks people keep the updates coming

At worst it's expected to be barely a Cat 2

 

And the models keep moving west.

At worst it's expected to be barely a Cat 2

 

And the models keep moving west.

it will get worse the further west it goes no? More time over the gulf can make it stronger?

I am home for a 2 week break from Tallahassee and Fay just had to develop.

 

It should be here on Tuesday, so there goes most of week 2's rest.

 

Man, it has been a while since I have done any of this. :lol

i check the weather a couple times a day, i was hearing that maybe sometime around Wednesday if it does come near us? was checking some videos off the WPTV site.

i check the weather a couple times a day, i was hearing that maybe sometime around Wednesday if it does come near us? was checking some videos off the WPTV site.

Monday-Tuesday should be hitting south florida with ti winding down on Wednesday.