Another thing to consider, and I'm sure the Marlins have considered it, is the fact Uggla is under club control a full season longer than Cantu is. Then again, there are always payroll concerns when it comes to the Marlins. But if the Marlins want to shave off some millions it seems easier to approach replacing the production of Cantu at 3B than the production of Uggla at 2B. And both are set to be awarded multimillion dollar contracts in arbitration this offseason.

 

If you are trying to keep the Marlins competitive in 2009 it seems like a no brainer. If you trade Uggla and move Cantu to 2B you have an automatic downgrade offensively and defensively. Same goes if Coghlan is moved to second in the place of Uggla. And offensively, Uggla is a step above Cantu. So, you trade Cantu if trading Mike Jacobs (which seems like a foregone conclusion at this point) and Willingham (ditto) doesn't cut it when it comes to paring down payroll and making way for Sanchez and Maybin.

 

There are those who have been on the trade-Uggla-now-his-value-has-peaked train since the end of the 2006 season. But has he folded like those in that cadre thought he would? After the 2006 season? After the 2007 season? No. He continues to rake and play the most solid defense in our infield. Yet still many of you want to sell him down the river.

Let's take this up a notch for argument's sake. Cantu is going to make over $4. Uggla around $4.5. Willingham $2. Hammer's back is going to make him a 1B/DH soon... why not do it right now. Part of the Marlins philosophy has always been to sell a player at the right time, and Hammer is clearly down and will not get top value like Jacobs, Cantu, Uggla, Olsen, etc, the rest of them display right now.

 

Concerning the players you mention, why not do this to this to the offense.

 

C - Baker

1B - G. Sanchez / Willingham

2B - Uggla

SS - HanRam

3B - McPherson / Helms < - Solid RHP/LHP split

LF - Ross/Willingham

CF - Maybin/Ross

RF - Hermida/Ross

Bench - Helms, Willingham, Amezaga, right handed catcher, another infielder

 

With the expected SP/RP (meaning no Gregg and Olsen and everyone else), this team is around $33 million.

 

Yes you lose Cantu... but not really anything else. The only glaring negative here is totally going for broke with McPherson and Helms covering 3B adequately (unless with that 'another infielder' spot you grab another 3B option not named Andino) versus having Cantu around to completely cover 1B/3B. A positive side effect of this though, is creating a logjam in the OF where Hermida isn't guaranteed a spot (a good thing to light a fire under his ass) and Ross being able to cover for Maybin if he struggles as he can shift over and Hammer can come in.

 

This is what I have been saying all offseason despite whatever 4-5 arbitration guys are traded. There are SO many options with this team because we have very versatile personnel right now, we are going to be in good shape anyway we do it. I'm not sure if this is the best idea. I'm just throwing it out there. But at a quick glance, I am not against this.

Let's take this up a notch for argument's sake. Cantu is going to make over $4. Uggla around $4.5. Willingham $2.

 

 

No f***ing way possible Cantu Makes 4 while Uggs only gets 500k more in salary.

 

Try- Uggla 6, Cantu 3 and Willingham at 2-3.

 

Ryan Howard got 10 Million his first Arbitration Eligible year when the team offered 7. Howard plays a Easier position to fill with power and didn't Even Make the 2007 All-Star game.

 

Uggla plays a position that typically lacks power, was a 2008 all-star, and Howards already set precedent. Not to mention that Uggla's been consistent for 3 years whereas Cantu had a journeyman label dying to be attached to him until he hit big with the fish.

Let's take this up a notch for argument's sake. Cantu is going to make over $4. Uggla around $4.5. Willingham $2.

 

 

No f***ing way possible Cantu Makes 4 while Uggs only gets 500k more in salary.

 

Try- Uggla 6, Cantu 3 and Willingham at 2-3.

 

Ryan Howard got 10 Million his first Arbitration Eligible year when the team offered 7. Howard plays a Easier position to fill with power and didn't Even Make the 2007 All-Star game.

 

Uggla plays a position that typically lacks power, was a 2008 all-star, and Howards already set precedent. Not to mention that Uggla's been consistent for 3 years whereas Cantu had a journeyman label dying to be attached to him until he hit big with the fish.

http://www.marlinbaseball.com/forums/index...showtopic=85628

 

The largest 4th year salaries to middle infielders are Hanley $5.5 million, and Utley $4.5 million. Uggla is not either of them. He is good, but he ain't getting that high. In a crazy scenario, he gets to $5, but I find that unlikely when he has bad avg and K peripherals, despite the HR. Cantu is 2nd year arbitration and will get a big bump. Willingham being injured, is going to hurt his figures.

So what's your thoughts on Willingham, Lou? At 2MM is the risk/reward worth it? Obviously if healthy he has shown that he has the ability to put up pretty decent numbers on a consistent basis, better than Ross. Does he have any trade value? Is the defensive upgrade with Ross worth the slight decline in numbers from Willingham?

 

I think some people might be underrating Willingham/overrating Ross at this point, but I guess we also have to factor in the injuries...it's an interesting dilemma for the FO.

I still think Hammer could put up a .900 plus OPS

 

The problem is, where as last year the question was "Ok, can he continue to hit RHP like he did in 2008 but also go back to hitting LHP like he did the rest of his career", the question going into '09 will be "Ok, will Hammer's back stop sapping his power away"

 

When you look at how little he'll probably make, I think the risk/reward with his trade value, it'd likely be better for us to keep him. And the XBH marathon the last 1-2 weeks of the season showed good signs.

 

But I also heart my hammer. And unfortunately, his position limitations (1b and LF) isn't promising.

I still think Hammer could put up a .900 plus OPS

 

The problem is, where as last year the question was "Ok, can he continue to hit RHP like he did in 2008 but also go back to hitting LHP like he did the rest of his career", the question going into '09 will be "Ok, will Hammer's back stop sapping his power away"

 

When you look at how little he'll probably make, I think the risk/reward with his trade value, it'd likely be better for us to keep him. And the XBH marathon the last 1-2 weeks of the season showed good signs.

 

But I also heart my hammer. And unfortunately, his position limitations (1b and LF) isn't promising.

 

 

I basically concur with all this. Hammer's trade value just isn't high enough, it seems we would be selling low. Also, I am surprised we aren't hearing more about moving him to 1B again. That was all the talk last off season and seems to make even more sense this year.

It all depends on who is traded for what. If Jake leaves and we bring in no one else to fill his slot, either with that trade or via another trade, Cantu will be at 1B (Gaby will continue his developement, I believe) and probably Dallas gets his shot at 3B. I don't like that scenario, but once again it depends on what we get in return from other trades. And seeing Dallas got $425K last year and has never shown much of anything at the ML level, I doubt he gets much of a bump in arbitration.

 

My personal choice would be keep Cantu at 3B and fill the 1B slot with someone else. Test the market with Dallas and Andino. We could use some pen help next year (Gregg and Rhodes should both be gone due to financial restraints) and those two could bring us some decent arms to help a very young pen.

Cantu cannot stay predominantly at 3B for defensive reasons. He is literally that bad. Dallas is a much better defender, and so is Helms in a pinch. The optimum orientation is, vs RHP Dallas (3B) Cantu/Sanchez (1B), vs LHP Cantu (3B), Sanchez (1B). Dallas slugs the crap out of RHP, Gaby and Cantu both have a lot of success vs LHP, and Cantu can predominantly play 1B vs RHP with Sanchez mixed in occasionally. It's a perfect platoon, especially with Helms behind all of them now who can pick up the slack vs LHP if someone is struggling.

 

And you are incredibly off with the pen. First, McPherson and Andino do not have a lot of trade value to bring back any arm better than what we currently have. They are of more value to us to see if they pan out at the MLB level, versus giving them away for an equally as skeptical RP prospect. Second, we have tons of RP options. Lindstrom, Pinto, and Nelson are basically locked for the pen. Our other internal options, in no order, are Kensing, Tankeresly, Tucker, Cruz, Owens, Gardner, Delgado, and maybe even Vanden Hurk. These are all big arms, and it's very likely at least 2 of them pan out into decent RP. Slightly behind them development wise, we have Mobley (our # 2 RP prospect behind Tucker), Wood, Doolittle, and Leroux who all have MLB quality arms and should be able to contribute by the middle of the year if all goes right. Not included here our are SP prospects - Thompson, Sinkbiel, West, Trahern, Badenhop, and if they keep Olsen, one of Anibal or Miller will be in the pen. I have no problem if they want to obtain someone else in one of the pending trades, but you make additions to the RP core through our arbitration class of players. Not trading AAA position players.

 

 

Disagree completely. Cantu has learned the 3B position and after the ASB put up far better numbers there than Dallas has ever shown at this level. I just can't see Beinfest outright saying he wants to get away from guys that K alot and have a questionable glove, and then basically manufacturing a slot for a guy just like that. But in either case, it's a short term solution at this point. We have a phenom 3B working his way up. 2 years?? Maybe 1 more year??

 

Every scenario I have seen here is going on the assumption that we will be trading away players and evidently getting guys in return that are minor league prospects that are not ready to compete at this level. I doubt that happens. I think we are better equipped to fill OF positions from within, and that leaves getting IF help through the trades. IF Jake is traded then I would think the FO goes after someone that is ML ready to fill in at 1B. Someone with a glove. Some pop sure wouldn't hurt. If Jake isn't traded then I can see him being the starter and a scenario like this year happening again. Late inning defensive switches. Either case leaves Dallas expendable. Along with the signing of Helms.

 

I also think the loss of Gregg and Rhodes is being underestimated. I doubt that the team is going to want to go into the season with a young pen with limited experience. To me, hoping that will work in a 162 game season is equivalent to hoping Urbina can get on a work release program and join the team. Not gonna happen.

 

It's all irrelevant at this stage. We are just going to have to wait until some trades are done to see what direction the team is headed. So far all we have to go on is Admin saying pitching, speed, and defense.

Cantu is terrible at 3B. It's not up for debate.

Dominguez is years away.

We lose Dallas if we don't bring him up, so we are bringing him up. He is also not expendable as he could be very useful and provides depth.

Jacobs will not be on the team.

We don't need IF help through trades. We have tons of guys at every position.

We are not in as good shape in the OF, as Raynor is our top advanced minor league prospect there and he doesn't project to be a starter.

 

Your first two paragraphs are just very inaccurate. I have no problem with your bullpen concerns, and pretty much agree and hope we have cash to bring in one veteran, or keep Olsen which leaves Anibal or Miller in the pen, but I would seriously reassess some of your ideas here.

Cantu is terrible at 3B. It's not up for debate.

Dominguez is years away.

We lose Dallas if we don't bring him up, so we are bringing him up. He is also not expendable as he could be very useful and provides depth.

Jacobs will not be on the team.

We don't need IF help through trades. We have tons of guys at every position.

We are not in as good shape in the OF, as Raynor is our top advanced minor league prospect there and he doesn't project to be a starter.

 

Your first two paragraphs are just very inaccurate. I have no problem with your bullpen concerns, and pretty much agree and hope we have cash to bring in one veteran, or keep Olsen which leaves Anibal or Miller in the pen, but I would seriously reassess some of your ideas here.

 

 

No he's not, so yes it is. The VERY infrequent errors after the ASB show he has learned the position better than Dallas. If Dallas was so much better at that than either Helms or Cantu, why wasn't he brought in during those late inning defensive moves after he was called up?? Or why wasn't he called up earlier?? Conspiracy theory?? The answer is because the team/coaches know he isn't all that some here seem to think he is. Don't think with the heart, look at how things were handled. Including the signing of Helms. It's very telling.

 

How does Dallas provide depth? Like I said, a guy that Ks alot, has shown nothing at this level with his glove, and still has at least some health questions surrounding him does not fit what direction the team is going. But then of course, I do acknowledge that I am one of the few that don't want to have Dallas's baby.

 

But it all depends on what we get in return for these trades. There is no way to say definitively what players are going (and, more importantly, who is coming here). With the exception of Gregg and most likely Rhodes. Even Scotty has question marks for trade, although he would be on the top of the probables to me. You can sit back and say you know who is going, but the fact is, no you don't. It's all speculation at this point. Admin is going to dangle just about everyone, but it will be determined by what is offered in return. And also what our AE guys will actually be asking for. None of us are mind readers so we don't know of they want to stay here because they feel we are there and will surprise everyone by accepting less than projected, or if they go for the paydays. IF Jake is traded, and IF another 1B isn't brought in that is ML ready, THEN I can see moving Cantu to 1B. But I would also expect that IF that is the scenario then the club will bring in someone to seriously compete with Dallas and Wes for that 3B slot. IF Dallas is still here by then, which I would expect using that scenario. Too many IFs.

 

Don't bother with the payroll expectations as some kind of ground rule either. We don't know what it's going to be. What we do know is what all the "experts" are saying it will be. Means nothing. And of course, there is always that "special fund" we have seen Loria use in the past when we were on the brink of a very special season. Kinda like right now. Do I expect that to happen? No. But at the same time, it wouldn't surprise me.

 

Bottom line.... Let's wait and see what we have to work with before we start saying this is the way things should be done. That has been the main point I have been making all along. Ignore it if you want.

Cantu is terrible at 3B. It's not up for debate.

Dominguez is years away.

We lose Dallas if we don't bring him up, so we are bringing him up. He is also not expendable as he could be very useful and provides depth.

Jacobs will not be on the team.

We don't need IF help through trades. We have tons of guys at every position.

We are not in as good shape in the OF, as Raynor is our top advanced minor league prospect there and he doesn't project to be a starter.

 

Your first two paragraphs are just very inaccurate. I have no problem with your bullpen concerns, and pretty much agree and hope we have cash to bring in one veteran, or keep Olsen which leaves Anibal or Miller in the pen, but I would seriously reassess some of your ideas here.

 

 

No he's not, so yes it is. The VERY infrequent errors after the ASB show he has learned the position better than Dallas. If Dallas was so much better at that than either Helms or Cantu, why wasn't he brought in during those late inning defensive moves after he was called up?? Or why wasn't he called up earlier?? Conspiracy theory?? The answer is because the team/coaches know he isn't all that some here seem to think he is. Don't think with the heart, look at how things were handled. Including the signing of Helms. It's very telling.

 

How does Dallas provide depth? Like I said, a guy that Ks alot, has shown nothing at this level with his glove, and still has at least some health questions surrounding him does not fit what direction the team is going. But then of course, I do acknowledge that I am one of the few that don't want to have Dallas's baby.

 

But it all depends on what we get in return for these trades. There is no way to say definitively what players are going (and, more importantly, who is coming here). With the exception of Gregg and most likely Rhodes. Even Scotty has question marks for trade, although he would be on the top of the probables to me. You can sit back and say you know who is going, but the fact is, no you don't. It's all speculation at this point. Admin is going to dangle just about everyone, but it will be determined by what is offered in return. And also what our AE guys will actually be asking for. None of us are mind readers so we don't know of they want to stay here because they feel we are there and will surprise everyone by accepting less than projected, or if they go for the paydays. IF Jake is traded, and IF another 1B isn't brought in that is ML ready, THEN I can see moving Cantu to 1B. But I would also expect that IF that is the scenario then the club will bring in someone to seriously compete with Dallas and Wes for that 3B slot. IF Dallas is still here by then, which I would expect using that scenario. Too many IFs.

 

Don't bother with the payroll expectations as some kind of ground rule either. We don't know what it's going to be. What we do know is what all the "experts" are saying it will be. Means nothing. And of course, there is always that "special fund" we have seen Loria use in the past when we were on the brink of a very special season. Kinda like right now. Do I expect that to happen? No. But at the same time, it wouldn't surprise me.

 

Bottom line.... Let's wait and see what we have to work with before we start saying this is the way things should be done. That has been the main point I have been making all along. Ignore it if you want.

Errors aren't a good valuation of defensive performance. Cantu ranked about worst in baseball last year and he needs to move predominantly to 1B for this team next year (if we keep him). McPherson ranked average/slightly above average during his years in the majors defensively, and scouts agree he is about the same now. I'm not thinking with the heart, I'm thinking objectively. It's very reasonable to say Dallas will probably produce a better defensive effort out of 3B than Cantu. Dallas wasn't coming in because the Marlins were in a pennant race, and why would you bring him in when he wasn't part of your team. That's logical. Maybin was forced into performance because Hermida and Willingham were struggling, which is a different situation. I have no problem keeping him in AAA, because he hasn't played a full year in years because of injuries, and he needed the day to day PA versus sitting on the bench and toiling behind Cantu and Jacobs. Your next contention, how he doesn't provide depth, is crazy. So what that he K's a lot? He also BB's a lot, has outrageous power vs RHP, is a solid defensive player despite anything you say, and is cheap for 2009. This is a good player. He will be fine jumping levels. It'll be a very Jacobs all or nothing performance, but there is nothing wrong with that in whatever role he takes. If we get rid of him, we would not get a lot in trade back, and this could blow up in our face like the Oakland Jack Cust trade. We don't want that to happen. This is a situation where he is more valuable to us, than in a trade. We need to keep him and play him, and we have a perfect situation to do this dumping Jacobs (which they will do. He and Gregg are the top guys gone, everyone else is up for debate) and deploying Cantu, McPherson, and G. Sanchez at our corners. This isn't to many infielders. Cantu should typically always play, at either slot, and if McPherson or Sanchez takes off and the other falters, that fixes the problem. And Helms can at least handle LHP in a starters capacity. We have just enough corner IF, not to many. We aren't bringing another 1B into the organization with G. Sanchez and Morrison in the minors. We are sticking with what we have at 1B for quite some time. This isn't really speculation. You can clearly see the direction they are moving in for at least these players on a production, salary, service time, everything, level. The pitching, outfield, Uggla, bench, bullpen, all of those are toss ups a lot more than this situation.

 

And I think you misunderstand arbitration. If they ask for a ton, they are going to lose their cases versus a rational-objective argument the Marlins present in the hearings. It doesn't matter if they want to play here or not, we have their rights. And I personally, find it very hard to believe anyone wants to leave this team after they won in the mid-80s and the pitching is finally healthy.

Errors aren't a good valuation of defensive performance. Cantu ranked about worst in baseball last year and he needs to move predominantly to 1B for this team next year (if we keep him). McPherson ranked average/slightly above average during his years in the majors defensively, and scouts agree he is about the same now. I'm not thinking with the heart, I'm thinking objectively. It's very reasonable to say Dallas will probably produce a better defensive effort out of 3B than Cantu. Dallas wasn't coming in because the Marlins were in a pennant race, and why would you bring him in when he wasn't part of your team. That's logical. Maybin was forced into performance because Hermida and Willingham were struggling, which is a different situation. I have no problem keeping him in AAA, because he hasn't played a full year in years because of injuries, and he needed the day to day PA versus sitting on the bench and toiling behind Cantu and Jacobs. Your next contention, how he doesn't provide depth, is crazy. So what that he K's a lot? He also BB's a lot, has outrageous power vs RHP, is a solid defensive player despite anything you say, and is cheap for 2009. This is a good player. He will be fine jumping levels. It'll be a very Jacobs all or nothing performance, but there is nothing wrong with that in whatever role he takes. If we get rid of him, we would not get a lot in trade back, and this could blow up in our face like the Oakland Jack Cust trade. We don't want that to happen. This is a situation where he is more valuable to us, than in a trade. We need to keep him and play him, and we have a perfect situation to do this dumping Jacobs (which they will do. He and Gregg are the top guys gone, everyone else is up for debate) and deploying Cantu, McPherson, and G. Sanchez at our corners. This isn't to many infielders. Cantu should typically always play, at either slot, and if McPherson or Sanchez takes off and the other falters, that fixes the problem. And Helms can at least handle LHP in a starters capacity. We have just enough corner IF, not to many. We aren't bringing another 1B into the organization with G. Sanchez and Morrison in the minors. We are sticking with what we have at 1B for quite some time. This isn't really speculation. You can clearly see the direction they are moving in for at least these players on a production, salary, service time, everything, level. The pitching, outfield, Uggla, bench, bullpen, all of those are toss ups a lot more than this situation.

 

And I think you misunderstand arbitration. If they ask for a ton, they are going to lose their cases versus a rational-objective argument the Marlins present in the hearings. It doesn't matter if they want to play here or not, we have their rights. And I personally, find it very hard to believe anyone wants to leave this team after they won in the mid-80s and the pitching is finally healthy.

 

Of course he did. He was terrible the first half of the season while learning the position. It's why I don't like playing numbers geek. You can make them proove any point you want, in either direction. Cantu is hands down the better defensive 3B over Dallas at this point. But that's only going by what I saw of Dallas in ST and going under the assumption he didn't improve there. According to you, he didn't. And looking at late defensive moves made by the team after his call up, and the fact he didn't get the call up until after the AAA season was done, it looks like the team thinks the same thing. So looking at what you say, and what you say others say, and looking at what the team actually did.......Cantu is better at 3B. So is Helms. Keeping a guy on the bench that Ks alot is not the direction this team wants to go. As far as I'm concerned, Dallas can go practise his strike out swing someplace else.

 

But I can't argue what it looks like for 1B. Except if Admin feels Gaby isn't ready. I haven't read anything from him on that and I don't have his cell number to ask. Of course I would expect the company answer on this until the trade of Jake is answered. Nobody can. Bu6t seeing all of us aren't on a ML FO team, I am going to guess he and his staff know better than we do on Gaby's, or anybody's, capabilities and/or readiness to compete at this level.

 

I don't misunderstand arbitration at all. I think you misunderstood my point. The team will offer them something, probably low ball them. Their agent will counter. If they can come to an agreement somewhere in between they don't even go to the arbitration panel. That's the point. Some could go for the big payday, ala Miggy's intent, and be gone in trade before the arbitration process takes place. Hence, they will not be playing here. I can't think of one person that will take that route tho.

 

Let's see what happens in the trades and arbitrations. There was a column posted on another thread from Frisaro and his thoughts of what is going to happen given JUST the current candidates. He was pretty well bashed around here. But that's pretty much the same thing you are doing. Which is my main point. Wait until we know what we have to work with.

I don't misunderstand arbitration at all. I think you misunderstood my point. The team will offer them something, probably low ball them. Their agent will counter. If they can come to an agreement somewhere in between they don't even go to the arbitration panel. That's the point. Some could go for the big payday, ala Miggy's intent, and be gone in trade before the arbitration process takes place. Hence, they will not be playing here. I can't think of one person that will take that route tho.

The Marlins have a policy of not negotiating with players once numbers are exchanged. They have NEVER met a player in the middle because they feel it hurts them in current and future negotiations as it's basically caving into demands. You don't understand. That's the point.

 

And I'm just ignoring all the other stuff I didn't quote because it's not worth it anymore. Godspeed.

I don't misunderstand arbitration at all. I think you misunderstood my point. The team will offer them something, probably low ball them. Their agent will counter. If they can come to an agreement somewhere in between they don't even go to the arbitration panel. That's the point. Some could go for the big payday, ala Miggy's intent, and be gone in trade before the arbitration process takes place. Hence, they will not be playing here. I can't think of one person that will take that route tho.

 

The Marlins have a policy of not negotiating with players once numbers are exchanged. They have NEVER met a player in the middle because they feel it hurts them in current and future negotiations as it's basically caving into demands. You don't understand. That's the point.

 

And I'm just ignoring all the other stuff I didn't quote because it's not worth it anymore. Godspeed.

 

 

Not at all true. And I use the Miggy negotiations as just one example. They went back and forth for quite some time, with the Marlins raising and Miggy standing still. I believe the starting numbers were the Marlins @ $5 mil, Miggy @ $7.4 mil. Team slowly came up to $6.7 mil and Miggy held fast. Of course it went to arby and Miggy won out. I use that one because it was the most publisized. There have been many more. Do not confuse guys that were pre AE and the numbers given to them. They can argue it isn't enough (although usually it is just noted in a one sentence statement via the media) and it costs them $10K for an in-team review, which I don't ever remember the team changing the numbers. In that instance you are right. So, somebody definetly dosen't understand, or is ignoring the true facts hoping he won't be called out on them.

 

We are just going to have to disagree on our Dallas feelings. No biggie. I know I am of the minority on these boards in that regard. Have a nice day.