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Peavy (Long, sorry)


CleeShay
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I was having a chat with a fellow Marlins fan today. The following was discussed:

 

He mentioned how there are a few rumors going around currently:

1. The Marlins payroll will be increased next year in an effort to make a push

2. The Padres are looking to deal Peavy.

 

Now, there is a post on here discussing theory number one. It appears as if this is true - so long as the payroll increase will involve improvement of the rather than an increase for the sake of an increase. I have looked around online and have confirmed that there are at least rumors of San Diego of dealing Peavy... including:

 

1. The Padres will want a ton of young talent in return (Haren returned 6 players last year, and Peavy is more valuable. However, this summer there are more pitchers on the market - Burnett, Lowe, Sabathia, Sheets - and so a quality starter isn't in QUITE as high demand as last year ... although naturally the deman is still high none the less). They are in the midst of rebuilding, and would require multiple players that can contribute for years to come in return for Peavy.

 

2. Peavy would only go to an NL team.

 

 

 

Naturally, we then began speculating the possibility of attempting to acquire Peavy. We figured the following:

 

1. We debated wether our front office would even make an offer for Peavy, as the rotation is already crowded. Nolasco, J.J., Sanchez, Volstad, Miller (with Olsen on the block and Mitre doubtful for most of 2009) are all starters we are confident with and have proven capable of pitching well (with the exception of Miller, who still has a ways to go). These guys are also rather inexpensive - unlike Peavy. However, for the hell of it, we decided to speculate potential offers. After all, anytime you can get an experienced veteran (especially one comonly referred to as a top 10 pitcher in baseball) to anchor a young rotation, it's a good thing.

2. We made a list of people rumored to be on their way out. We came up with: Olsen, Uggla, Jacobs, Willingham or Hermidia, and Gregg. There are also rumors of a couple MRP, but we left them out of the equation for now.

3. We cross referenced those players on their way out with needed positions for San Diego. They could use Uggla, Olsen, OFer, and Gregg. With Gonzalez at first, Jacobs isn't very useful for them.

 

 

 

 

Now, we are not by any stretch of the imagination well versed in the Marlins front office nor farm system. I've read on here though that we have players to replace Jacobs, Uggla, and Hermida in the farm system.

 

 

So my questions are as follows:

 

1. Knowing that the rotation is already crowded, and Peavy would cost a lot, what are the odds of the front office even attempting to initiate talks with the Padres? If it's true that the front office is willing to increase payroll, is it really that far fetched from a monetary standpoint? I believe Peavy still has a few years of club options on his contract also, so he would be more than a one- year rental.

2. Assume for a moment that we DO initiate talks. What would it take in order to get him? Would we end up parting with anyone whom we don't already currently expect to part with? Would he be worth it?

3. What would we do with our rotation given the unlikely situation that we DID acquire him? Who would fall out? Initally I thought Miller, but you really want to have at least one left hander.

4. Do you think an acquisition of a player of Peavy's calibar would have a significant effect on attendance in South Florida? After a long term signing of Hanley and then a trade for such a high profile player, do you think the average fan in South Florida would begin to trust the Marlins' front office again?

5. What are the odds of any of this actually being relevant? I'm sure it's very low, but is something like 5% even possible?

 

 

I know this is all hypothetical and probably irrelevant. I just figured it would at least get some good discussion going.

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1. 0%. Those are the odds.

2. If we were to trade for Peavy...San Diego would want some of our best prospects in return. A guy like Stanton would go in this deal. Some of our pitching prospects would go. When you trade a pitcher the caliber of Peavy's, the other team isn't looking for Kevin Gregg's. Kevin Gregg's can be had through free agency, at a cheaper price.

3. Peavy, Nolasco, JJ, Volstad, Miller. That would be the rotation.

4. No. The attendance would remain the same. Just like it did when the team acquired guys like Carlos Delgado.

5. It's not possible...this isn't happening. It would make very little to no sense for the Marlins to make such a deal, at this point.

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First of all, welcome to the board, I love your screen name.

 

1. Knowing that the rotation is already crowded, and Peavy would cost a lot, what are the odds of the front office even attempting to initiate talks with the Padres? If it's true that the front office is willing to increase payroll, is it really that far fetched from a monetary standpoint? I believe Peavy still has a few years of club options on his contract also, so he would be more than a one- year rental.

 

Peavy will make $6.5 million in 2008 and $11 million in 2009.

 

The new money kicks in in 2010, when he'll make $15 million. He'll earn $16 million in 2011 and $17 million in 2012. The club holds a $22 million option for 2013, or a $4 million buyout.

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This post was well thought out for the most part, rational and reasonable, congratulations... However...

 

Erick's right it would cost a crapton of prospects probably including Michael Stanton, in addition to Ryan Tucker, probably also Dan Uggla, Scott Olsen et al. Jacobs wouldn't be part of the equation obviously because of Adrian Gonzalez and... seriously... LoL at Jacobs playing in PetCo full-time... you think he sucks now???

 

I never rule out the realm of the GMs discussing the players... even if it'd only be Beinfest or Hill calling the SD FO saying "What would it take"... because there's no doubt at least that much happens.

 

As for possibility, because I never rule things out (Besides Jacobs to Oakland), I'll be more generous than Erick in saying 1-2%, but I mean, even now, we still can't afford to mortgage the future on a pitcher who, while very good, has had a couple injuries and will require a lot of money.

 

The attendance also wouldn't see any significant change outside of maybe fans starting earlier on the bandwagon, especially if the local media starts selling the fact that we can "Be the Rays of 2009"...

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1. 0%. Those are the odds.

2. If we were to trade for Peavy...San Diego would want some of our best prospects in return. A guy like Stanton would go in this deal. Some of our pitching prospects would go. When you trade a pitcher the caliber of Peavy's, the other team isn't looking for Kevin Gregg's. Kevin Gregg's can be had through free agency, at a cheaper price.

3. Peavy, Nolasco, JJ, Volstad, Miller. That would be the rotation.

4. No. The attendance would remain the same. Just like it did when the team acquired guys like Carlos Delgado.

5. It's not possible...this isn't happening. It would make very little to no sense for the Marlins to make such a deal, at this point.

 

Looks like Erick beat me to it...This guy is the smartest 17 year old ever. :thumbup

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1. 0%. Those are the odds.

2. If we were to trade for Peavy...San Diego would want some of our best prospects in return. A guy like Stanton would go in this deal. Some of our pitching prospects would go. When you trade a pitcher the caliber of Peavy's, the other team isn't looking for Kevin Gregg's. Kevin Gregg's can be had through free agency, at a cheaper price.

3. Peavy, Nolasco, JJ, Volstad, Miller. That would be the rotation.

4. No. The attendance would remain the same. Just like it did when the team acquired guys like Carlos Delgado.

5. It's not possible...this isn't happening. It would make very little to no sense for the Marlins to make such a deal, at this point.

 

Looks like Erick beat me to it...This guy is the smartest 17 year old ever. :thumbup

 

Well, the difference is Erick completely eliminated all possibility, which isn't really fair, because really, if the FO felt they really wanted Peavy and that he was the "missing piece" we'd get him, hands down. The only thing barring that is the "no long term pitchers" thing, but don't let that fool you, if Peavy was a "missing piece" needed for a run, we'd end up getting him and probably flipping him when the FO felt he was expendable anyways.

 

That's not to say this isn't still like 99% unlikely, but there's always possibility in this case.

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Fair enough, PWG. I won't say 0%...but I wouldn't put this any higher than 1%. I would personally be a little mad if Beinfest ever made such a deal.

 

Peavy's a good pitcher and all, but to make such a deal (considering the Marlins are a small market team) for a pitcher, at this price is extremely risky. It's not the type of move to make...if Peavy were to get injured (which is also possible), you just traded a good portion of your farm system for nada.

 

Also, consider the fact that while Peavy's a good pitcher...his numbers are somewhat deceiving. He has the advantage of pitching at Petco. His career ERA at home (2.77) is a full run lower than his career ERA on the road (3.80). Then consider the fact that Peavy would go from facing the Giants, DBacks, Dodgers, and Rockies of the world to better hitting teams in the NL East, like the Mets & the Phillies.

 

Peavy is a #1, but the level of competition is higher in the NL East.

 

For example, the great #'s that Peavy put up last year...that wouldn't have happened in the NL East.

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1. 0%. Those are the odds.

2. If we were to trade for Peavy...San Diego would want some of our best prospects in return. A guy like Stanton would go in this deal. Some of our pitching prospects would go. When you trade a pitcher the caliber of Peavy's, the other team isn't looking for Kevin Gregg's. Kevin Gregg's can be had through free agency, at a cheaper price.

3. Peavy, Nolasco, JJ, Volstad, Miller. That would be the rotation.

4. No. The attendance would remain the same. Just like it did when the team acquired guys like Carlos Delgado.

5. It's not possible...this isn't happening. It would make very little to no sense for the Marlins to make such a deal, at this point.

 

Looks like Erick beat me to it...This guy is the smartest 17 year old ever. :thumbup

 

Well, the difference is Erick completely eliminated all possibility, which isn't really fair, because really, if the FO felt they really wanted Peavy and that he was the "missing piece" we'd get him, hands down. The only thing barring that is the "no long term pitchers" thing, but don't let that fool you, if Peavy was a "missing piece" needed for a run, we'd end up getting him and probably flipping him when the FO felt he was expendable anyways.

 

That's not to say this isn't still like 99% unlikely, but there's always possibility in this case.

 

 

Well..he's only 17. If he was older he would have given it the 1-2% chance that it deserved. :lol . Let's just be glad he's not a mrmarlinpride2.

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Fair enough, PWG. I won't say 0%...but I wouldn't put this any higher than 1%. I would personally be a little mad if Beinfest ever made such a deal.

 

Peavy's a good pitcher and all, but to make such a deal (considering the Marlins are a small market team) for a pitcher, at this price is extremely risky. It's not the type of move to make...if Peavy were to get injured (which is also possible), you just traded a good portion of your farm system for nada.

 

Also, consider the fact that while Peavy's a good pitcher...his numbers are somewhat deceiving. He has the advantage of pitching at Petco. His career ERA at home (2.77) is a full run lower than his career ERA on the road (3.80). Then consider the fact that Peavy would go from facing the Giants, DBacks, Dodgers, and Rockies of the world to better hitting teams in the NL East, like the Mets & the Phillies.

 

Peavy is a #1, but the level of competition is higher in the NL East.

 

For example, the great #'s that Peavy put up last year...that wouldn't have happened in the NL East.

 

The D-Backs (I think) and Rockies both play in very solid hitter's parks and it's not like Peavy would be moving to a hitter's park himself, despite the fireworks the Marlins put up, it's still very much a pitcher's park, reaping the same benefits. I mean... the Phillies probably do have a better offense than anyone in the NL West but still, it'd be akin to facing the Rockies, but really, do the Mets, Braves and Nationals? The NL East is usually more competitive, but that's probably much more the result of pitching in recent years, excluding Philly in the CBP era.

 

In short, I don't think the move to the NL East would be that bad for him. Obviously, I agree with the price and trade value and all that jazz, as I said earlier.

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Fair enough, PWG. I won't say 0%...but I wouldn't put this any higher than 1%. I would personally be a little mad if Beinfest ever made such a deal.

 

Peavy's a good pitcher and all, but to make such a deal (considering the Marlins are a small market team) for a pitcher, at this price is extremely risky. It's not the type of move to make...if Peavy were to get injured (which is also possible), you just traded a good portion of your farm system for nada.

 

Also, consider the fact that while Peavy's a good pitcher...his numbers are somewhat deceiving. He has the advantage of pitching at Petco. His career ERA at home (2.77) is a full run lower than his career ERA on the road (3.80). Then consider the fact that Peavy would go from facing the Giants, DBacks, Dodgers, and Rockies of the world to better hitting teams in the NL East, like the Mets & the Phillies.

 

Peavy is a #1, but the level of competition is higher in the NL East.

 

For example, the great #'s that Peavy put up last year...that wouldn't have happened in the NL East.

 

The D-Backs (I think) and Rockies both play in very solid hitter's parks and it's not like Peavy would be moving to a hitter's park himself, despite the fireworks the Marlins put up, it's still very much a pitcher's park, reaping the same benefits. I mean... the Phillies probably do have a better offense than anyone in the NL West but still, it'd be akin to facing the Rockies, but really, do the Mets, Braves and Nationals? The NL East is usually more competitive, but that's probably much more the result of pitching in recent years, excluding Philly in the CBP era.

 

In short, I don't think the move to the NL East would be that bad for him. Obviously, I agree with the price and trade value and all that jazz, as I said earlier.

 

 

The Mets offense is better than any offense in the NL West, as well. As a matter of fact, the Mets scored as many runs as the Phillies this year.

 

Atlanta (a bad team in this years' NL East) scored more runs (and this includes the fact that Chipper took his month or so off, again with injuries) than any team in the NL West this year.

 

Out of the entire division, ZERO teams from the NL West were in the top half this year in .OPS, as a team.

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The Mets offense is better than any offense in the NL West, as well. As a matter of fact, the Mets scored as many runs as the Phillies this year.

 

Atlanta (a bad team in this years' NL East) scored more runs (and this includes the fact that Chipper took his month or so off, again with injuries) than any team in the NL West this year.

 

Out of the entire division, ZERO teams from the NL West were in the top half this year in .OPS, as a team.

 

My one problem with that... and to be fair, it's probably influenced mostly by some pretty anemic offenses to begin with, but how much of that can be attributed to having more pitching-oriented teams and having to play in SF, SD, and LA, extreme pitcher's parks. It's a give and take, no park in the NL East abuses hitters quite like that tri-fecta. Also, I would venture to say that most NL East pitching staffs, sans the Marlins towards the end of the year, are comparable to the NL West staffs, in terms of quality and depth. Looking at NY, you have Johan, maybe Pelfrey and then what? Washington, not getting into that one haha, Atlanta's pitching outside of Hudson is questionable, Philly has Hamels and Moyer and then?

 

Outside of Colorado, all the NL West rotations roll three deep really...

 

It's a very variable-ridden situation, how much of what effects what...

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I really didn't expect this type of response ... I'm not really used to posting something as far-fetched as this scenario and not spending the first ten replies getting flamed for it. It's nice. I think I like it here...

 

 

As for the responses themselves, I really didn't think it was very likely AT ALL. I guess my minuscule 5% was still much higher than the actual probability. But there were a few things in the responses which I do not know about.

 

1. I already admitted to not being too well-versed in the Marlins farm system. For that I apologize. But who is Stanton? From replies, it sounds as if he is our top prospect and I don't even know who he is. Pretty sad.

2. Is there any site or area on this site that has stuff to read about the farm system? I'd love to learn more.

3. I'm a little surprised at the common thought that a huge signing wouldn't wake up our fan base. From what I've heard from various fans, their main issue with the Marlins is their "unwillingness to make an attempt at long term success". I personally disagree with that assessment, but if that is indeed the main problem plaguing the common fan, I'd like to think that it would give them hope to see a long term deal with Hanley and a major signing. Do I have the "main issue" incorrect?

4. If the major selling point to our fan base should be "We are the 2008 Rays of 2009", and the "2008 Rays were the 2003 Marlins" .. can't we just skip the bs and say we are ourselves? (Im working on being humorous .. give me a break :) )

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1. I already admitted to not being too well-versed in the Marlins farm system. For that I apologize. But who is Stanton? From replies, it sounds as if he is our top prospect and I don't even know who he is. Pretty sad.

 

Mike Stanton is a power hitting right hander we drafted in the second round in 2007. He was considered a raw prospect at the time, but hit nearly 40 home runs this year Greensboro as an 18 year old. He is extremely athletic as Southern Cal offered him a scholarship to play WR, he has nice size and speed and obviously prestigious power. We are all very excited about his future...

 

 

 

 

2. Is there any site or area on this site that has stuff to read about the farm system? I'd love to learn more.

 

The minor league forum on this site is the best place for that kind of info.

 

3. I'm a little surprised at the common thought that a huge signing wouldn't wake up our fan base. From what I've heard from various fans, their main issue with the Marlins is their "unwillingness to make an attempt at long term success". I personally disagree with that assessment, but if that is indeed the main problem plaguing the common fan, I'd like to think that it would give them hope to see a long term deal with Hanley and a major signing. Do I have the "main issue" incorrect?

 

We have made long term signing commitments before, they just don't help. The issues with the Marlins has more to do with single players, it has to do with rain, distrust in ownership despite one or two long term signings, bad location, no baseball stadium...etc...winning though brings out the fans in mass.

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I really didn't expect this type of response ... I'm not really used to posting something as far-fetched as this scenario and not spending the first ten replies getting flamed for it. It's nice. I think I like it here...

 

 

As for the responses themselves, I really didn't think it was very likely AT ALL. I guess my minuscule 5% was still much higher than the actual probability. But there were a few things in the responses which I do not know about.

 

1. I already admitted to not being too well-versed in the Marlins farm system. For that I apologize. But who is Stanton? From replies, it sounds as if he is our top prospect and I don't even know who he is. Pretty sad.

2. Is there any site or area on this site that has stuff to read about the farm system? I'd love to learn more.

3. I'm a little surprised at the common thought that a huge signing wouldn't wake up our fan base. From what I've heard from various fans, their main issue with the Marlins is their "unwillingness to make an attempt at long term success". I personally disagree with that assessment, but if that is indeed the main problem plaguing the common fan, I'd like to think that it would give them hope to see a long term deal with Hanley and a major signing. Do I have the "main issue" incorrect?

4. If the major selling point to our fan base should be "We are the 2008 Rays of 2009", and the "2008 Rays were the 2003 Marlins" .. can't we just skip the bs and say we are ourselves? (Im working on being humorous .. give me a break :) )

 

First things first... so long as you can keep things reasonable and well explained, as you did, you shouldn't catch much flak.... don't be like ZOMG WE SHOULD GET PUJOLS. Obviously you supported a lot of your ideas with some semblance of logic, always a good thing... on to the other things...

 

1) Michael Stanton is a 19 year old kid who hit almost 40 HRs while batting almost .300 in A ball... definitely a great prospect...

2) As far as a niche for marlins minors, there's no dictionary type thing, there are a few sites off here you can use that apparently shan't be posted, PM/IM me for a link if you want, and you can always browse/ask questions in the marlins minors thread.

3) The "main issue" with fans is winning, 100%... a lot of fans attribute this to not keeping stars... but don't look at 2004-2005 when we had all those stars and went nowhere. Hanley's long term signing does spell good thing, but seeing that it's the only one kind of holds fans back, but the biggest issue is winning... if we churned out back to back 90 win seasons with playoffs in both, you'd see a rise in ticket sales.

4) Try better :p

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1) Michael Stanton is a 19 year old kid who hit almost 40 HRs while batting almost .300 in A ball... definitely a great prospect...

 

Excellent. I'll have to keep up with him

 

4) Try better :p

 

Yeah, re-reading it was pretty awful. There's bad humor, and then there's just plain bad . I'm going to stick to sarcasm for humor.

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2) As far as a niche for marlins minors, there's no dictionary type thing, there are a few sites off here you can use that apparently shan't be posted, PM/IM me for a link if you want, and you can always browse/ask questions in the marlins minors thread.

 

 

Apaprently I'm unable to use the PM feature ... such a n00b.

 

Any idea why this is the case?

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2) As far as a niche for marlins minors, there's no dictionary type thing, there are a few sites off here you can use that apparently shan't be posted, PM/IM me for a link if you want, and you can always browse/ask questions in the marlins minors thread.

 

 

Apaprently I'm unable to use the PM feature ... such a n00b.

 

Any idea why this is the case?

 

None, ask in here http://www.marlinbaseball.com/forums/index.php?showforum=8

 

Till then, I'll PM you..

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Yeah, re-reading it was pretty awful. There's bad humor, and then there's just plain bad . I'm going to stick to sarcasm for humor.

 

Sarcasm doesn't work well on the internet though ...see me calling Rabbethan (a member on this board) an idiot.

 

That worked... he just countered with more sarcasm... it's a duel of wit

 

But I didn't understand his sarcasm...therefore it failed. Maybe sarcasm on the internet only works if you have a plethora of emoticans... and I should use them more? :usaflag :elefant :jerry :sparta :train :daz :dancing

 

?

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