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With 35 games left to play being behind 4.5 games in the Wild Card race does not seem so difficult to overcome. But when you take a closer look, it will be very difficult for the Marlins to pull this one off.

 

Assuming that the Rockies will only win half of their remaining games, the Marlins will have to win 23 of the remaining 35 games in order to make the playoffs.

 

The Rockies playing .500 ball and the Marlins going 23-12 doesn't sound very realistic to me, but I'm still hoping for a bit of a miracle.

If the Marlins go 23-12, they would be 90-72. In order to force a tie with the Marlins, the Rockies would have to then go 18-16. Not positive how the tiebreaker works, but the Marlins won the season series with the Rox 4-2. At worst, that would force a playoff, I think. 23-12 = just win every series :thumbup

The way I see it the Marlins have about ten losses to spare in order to win the wild card, and even that is being generous. In other words, they must go 25-10 down the stretch and win nearly 75% of the remaining games.

 

You forget that the Rockies aren't the Marlins only competition for the WC. San Francisco has a better record and Atlanta is an identical record. One of those teams could just as easily play better over the remaining games. That essentially means that the Marlins must play much better than the Rockies, slightly better than the Giants, and equal to the Braves if one of those shall enter a winning streak. This will prove to be incedibly difficult.

 

Roughly speaking, the Rockies are projected to win about 91 or 92 games in total. If this trend holds, it means the Marlins would have to win 25 games just to tie. It is also worth considering that the Rockies have been playing much better than .563 baseball since they fired Hurdle. They've been something like .659 since Tracy took over, which would put them at 106 or 107 wins. Do I think they will actually win that many? Of course not. However, I do think it must be taken into consideration when coming up with the minimum estimate for playoff considerations.

 

Nevertheless, it's highly probable that the WC team will have at least 91 wins, so I think a 25-10 record will be necessary to keep the Marlins in the race.

One 3 or 4 game skid by any team above us puts us right back in the race. It's really not that impossible.

our starter pitcher need play better and need stop leaving guys on base

I think we are about done, we need to go on an amazing tear and the Rockies need to meltdown for us to get the WC, the prospect of them losing 3 or 4 in a row is unlikely. Even if we play well, i.e. win every series the rest of the way, we may still come up short.

if we dont make a move, we arent making the playoffs. we need a good veteran starter, and even then we probably wont make it. not unless the rockies blow up

2003 Marlins lost 9 games after August 27th

2004 Astros lost 7 games after August 27th

2007 Rockies lost 9 games after August 27th

 

If you need to make a run, that is how you do it.

Take it day by day.

With 35 games left to play being behind 4.5 games in the Wild Card race does not seem so difficult to overcome. But when you take a closer look, it will be very difficult for the Marlins to pull this one off.

 

Assuming that the Rockies will only win half of their remaining games, the Marlins will have to win 23 of the remaining 35 games in order to make the playoffs.

 

The Rockies playing .500 ball and the Marlins going 23-12 doesn't sound very realistic to me, but I'm still hoping for a bit of a miracle.

 

 

The strength of their remaining schedule is .498 and ours is .473. This is taking into account home / road splits. Ignoring home / road splits it's .483 for them and .480 for us.

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