November 8, 200916 yr http://joefrisaro.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/11/payroll_projection_for_2010.html Let's hope Frisaro is wrong again, because < $36 million would be awful. I'm guessing that would mean Cantu gone in addition to Uggla, and if that happens, then I see very few ways to not start EB, which will suck. Also, if this is true, then it's obvious they are not legitimately in the running for Aroldis Chapman.
November 8, 200916 yr If that payroll is accurate the Marlins aren't going to be any good next season and that is a shame. Heck Ross might be shipped out along with Cantu and Uggla.
November 8, 200916 yr Wow, I was expecting it to be at least $40M. I hope Lou posts his $36M team with salary estimates.
November 8, 200916 yr Wow, I was expecting it to be at least $40M. I hope Lou posts his $36M team with salary estimates. hhhhmmmm C John Baker $415,000 1B Gaby Sanchez $405,000 2B Chris Coghlan $410,000 3B “Unknown Minimum 3B� $405,000 SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000 LF Brett Carroll $405,000 CF Cameron Maybin $405,000 RF Cody Ross $4,200,000 B Emilio Bonifacio $415,000 B Wes Helms $950,000 B Ronny Paulino $900,000 B “Minimum OF�/Petersen $405,000 B “Minimum 1B/LF� $1,250,000 SP Josh Johnson $5,500,000 SP Ricky Nolasco $4,250,000 SP Andrew Miller $2,000,000 SP Chris Volstad $415,000 SP Sean West $405,000 RP Leo Nunez $2,000,000 RP Matt Lindstrom $1,650,000 RP Dan Meyer $415,000 RP Rick Vanden Hurk $415,000 RP Brian Sanches $415,000 RP Burke Badenhop $415,000 RP Hunter Jones $405,000 $35,850,000 Trades - Uggla, Hermida, Cantu, Amezaga, Anibal, Pinto You could also do something like, find a cheaper veteran bench bat and use that money to keep Anibal instead and keep together the rotation. Or, get rid of Lindstrom/Nunez and use that $1.5 million for a 3B, keeping Anibal, etc. Really, the only change from this team compared to a $40 million payroll is no Cantu and a different 3B. When it comes down to it, that isn't a killer change (Cantu is a .775-.825 OPS bat with horrific defense. i.e., he is average) and going to effect the bottom line. They would just need a guy to come in and provide some sort of average production and not be a butcher defensively. Still, what it comes down to is the pitching. If the starting pitching shows up, we're not going to have problems. I have a lot of confidence in the younger bats to produce. They really don't have to do much as long as Hanley, Ross, and Baker/Paulino are consistent and Coghlan doesn't drop to much.
November 8, 200916 yr Hmmm.... According to Cots, payroll for 2009 was $36,834,000. According to my sales rep, season ticket sales for 2010 are up from 2009. Not just $$$ value, but also the amount of season ticket packages sold. Sales for 2011 are already getting on the books because of the deal offered to current season ticket holders (does anyone else understand the significance of that?). We owe nothing to players that won't be here next year (can't remember the last time that happened, and it could change a little by Opening Day if no one picks up certain guys we release, like Dallas last year). We have been told and shown that payroll will reflect income. And yet some are predicting, and running with that prediction, that payroll for next year will be lower than last year? Bah. I stick by my guess that payroll by Opening Day 2010 will be $45-50 mil. Apparently I stand alone on this prediction despite all the facts pointing in that direction. The most glaring fact being "payroll will reflect income." And "income" does mainly mean season ticket sales, not what the team hopes to make at the walk up windows during the season. I hope to be laughing again this year at the predictions of others. Just like last year when the long posts were showing how and why payroll would be under $30 mil and I was saying $35-40 mil.
November 8, 200916 yr http://joefrisaro.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/11/payroll_projection_for_2010.html Let's hope Frisaro is wrong again, because < $36 million would be awful. I'm guessing that would mean Cantu gone in addition to Uggla, and if that happens, then I see very few ways to not start EB, which will suck. Also, if this is true, then it's obvious they are not legitimately in the running for Aroldis Chapman. If he is not on the Opening Day roster, and most predictions say he won't be, the amount of $$$ he makes in 2010 will not be reflected in the payroll. Any signing bonus he may recieve won't be reflected in the payroll figures for next year. Just like the signing bonuses and payrolls of our 2009 draft choices and our minor league players weren't on the figures for last year. But I would still be very surprised if we are actual contenders for Chapman anyway. He will go to the highest bidder. Period. And until the media makes his name far more recognizable, that won't be for a while yet. If they don't, then he will go for far less than he is reportedly asking for right now. Bet on it. Anyone know who Yu Darvish is??? I didn't until I Googled Chapman. See any reports of teams going ga-ga over him? Different circumstances, but they are in the same talent category. Because he is Asian his best chance of getting in the majors is with a west coast team? Thinking that because Chapman is Cuban he will go to either NY or Miami is just as rediculous.
November 8, 200916 yr I've known of Darvish now for a year, maybe 2. Until this past week I was unaware of Chapman however. Wasn't there quite a lot of publicity regarding Darvish at the WBC last Spring?
November 8, 200916 yr Trades - Uggla, Hermida, Cantu, Amezaga, Anibal, Pinto You could also do something like, find a cheaper veteran bench bat and use that money to keep Anibal instead and keep together the rotation. Or, get rid of Lindstrom/Nunez and use that $1.5 million for a 3B, keeping Anibal, etc. Really, the only change from this team compared to a $40 million payroll is no Cantu and a different 3B. When it comes down to it, that isn't a killer change (Cantu is a .775-.825 OPS bat with horrific defense. i.e., he is average) and going to effect the bottom line. They would just need a guy to come in and provide some sort of average production and not be a butcher defensively. Still, what it comes down to is the pitching. If the starting pitching shows up, we're not going to have problems. I have a lot of confidence in the younger bats to produce. They really don't have to do much as long as Hanley, Ross, and Baker/Paulino are consistent and Coghlan doesn't drop to much. Assuming the payroll is indeed around ($36 million) hypothetically, isn't there a strong possibility that the 3B will either be Bonifacio or some inexpensive 3B they get in return for Uggla (a repeat of the Willingham trade)? I don't see them signing anyone to fill that gap due to cost constraints.
November 8, 200916 yr Hmmm.... According to Cots, payroll for 2009 was $36,834,000. According to my sales rep, season ticket sales for 2010 are up from 2009. Not just $$$ value, but also the amount of season ticket packages sold. Sales for 2011 are already getting on the books because of the deal offered to current season ticket holders (does anyone else understand the significance of that?). We owe nothing to players that won't be here next year (can't remember the last time that happened, and it could change a little by Opening Day if no one picks up certain guys we release, like Dallas last year). We have been told and shown that payroll will reflect income. And yet some are predicting, and running with that prediction, that payroll for next year will be lower than last year? Bah. I stick by my guess that payroll by Opening Day 2010 will be $45-50 mil. Apparently I stand alone on this prediction despite all the facts pointing in that direction. The most glaring fact being "payroll will reflect income." And "income" does mainly mean season ticket sales, not what the team hopes to make at the walk up windows during the season. I hope to be laughing again this year at the predictions of others. Just like last year when the long posts were showing how and why payroll would be under $30 mil and I was saying $35-40 mil. I don't see how indicative this is of anything. Even if the Marlins generate more revenues in season ticket sales, it does not mean that they have enough profits to increase payroll after their other expenses. You are ignoring the possibility that prices of necessary goods and services might have increased or itroduced altogether that could force the team to divert money away from payroll. Having said that, I still highly doubt that the payroll is below $40 million. I just find your reasoning to be highly questionable. Loria was too upset from not making the playoffs in 2009; I don't see him fielding virtually the same team minus Uggla, Cantu, Hermida, N. Johnson, with some league mimimum players added.
November 8, 200916 yr I stick by my guess that payroll by Opening Day 2010 will be $45-50 mil. Apparently I stand alone on this prediction despite all the facts pointing in that direction. A lot of people feel these way. Maybe not up to $50, but I think it'll be just over $40 million. I think maybe $50 in 2011 to start scaling up for the stadium.
November 8, 200916 yr Author I hope the "optimists" are right (obviously). FWIW, I'd drop one of Lindstrom/Nunez, and either keep Anibal or spend a bit more on the 3B in the $36 MM team.
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