May 2010 Hitter's Roundup

[MarlinsLou]

This is a round up of the Marlins Minors May 2010. It is not intended to be complete, but rather highlight the top dozen hitters in the system, significant sleepers, and anyone else absolutely drilling baseballs. If you feel the need to add a player, feel free to reply as it only benefits everyone reading.

 

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April 2010 Round Up - http://www.marlinsbaseball.com/topic/92005-april-2010-hitter-round-up/

 

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Lou’s Top 10 Hitting Prospects as of this writing

 

1. Mike Stanton

2. Logan Morrison

3. Matt Dominguez

4. Kyle Skipworth

5. Jake Smolinski

6. Bryan Petersen

7. Scott Cousins

8. Osvaldo Martinez

9. Brett Hayes

10. Marcell Ozuna

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Greensboro Grasshoppers (Class A Affiliate)

 

C - Kyle Skipworth (20 years old, 2008 first round pick)

2009 (A) - 264 AB, .208/.263/.348 (.612), 7 HR, 18/81 BB/K

April 2010 - 77 AB, .234/.314/.468 (.781), 4 HR, 9/25 BB/K

 

May 2010 - 94 AB, .298/.350/.564 (.913), 6 HR, 5/34 BB/K, 36% whiff rate

Total 2010 - 171 AB, .269/.333/.520 (.854), 10 HR, 14/59 BB/K, 35% whiff rate

 

Compared to 2009 he is doing amazing, but that BB/K is disgusting for A ball. It’s hard to criticize a guy who is coming around after an abysmal year, but Greensboro is a drastic hitter’s environment which is certainly helping the power somewhat and Skip is just flat out making terrible contact. I am encouraged he is doing something, but discouraged at the lack of plate discipline and contact. This is a major area that needs improvement. He needs to take a few more walks, and drop his strike out percentage into at least the low 20s. Good news is, he has 3-4 years to figure this out and is very raw. Great start to the year, now build off of it.

 

Quick Notes: Tom Hickman (.802 OPS, 4/22 B/KK) is back and still striking out way to much a player his age... Marcell Ozuna has not played since April 13th and listed on the DL... Justin Bass, 19th round 2008, is showing some power hitting 11 HR in route to a .248/.325/.526 line, but the 10/35 BB/K and Greensboro as a hitting environment does not suggest he is more than an organizational player....

 

Jupiter Hammerheads (High A Affiliate)

 

The Hammerheads are truly an awful hitting team. There is no way around it when the top hitter on the team, Paul Gran, is at a .709 OPS. It gets worse from there.

 

3B - Jake Smolinski (21 years old, 2007 Second Round Pick of Washington Nationals)

2009 (A) - 279 AB, .283/.379/.448 (.827), 7 HR, 38/45 BB/K

April 2010 - 80 AB, .225/.289/.350 (.639), 1 HR, 7/20 BB/K

 

May 2010 - 97 AB, .247/.270/.340 (.610), 1 HR, 2/16 BB/K

Total - 177 AB, .237/.279/.345 (.624), 2 HR, 9/36 BB/K

 

The BB/K is very surprising after his excellent rates in 2009. The power disappearing in Jupiter as most players not named Mike Stanton don’t hit a ton of HR here, but Smolinski is simply getting killed right now. Hopefully, much like Matt Dominguez last year, the learning curve has just hit him hard and he starts hitting like last year.

 

Quick Notes: Isaac Galloway has been injured since May 17, sporting a robist .482 OPS in the month of May before that, and .552 on the year. It's a small sample size, but he has done nothing as a professional. This is starting to look like Greg Burns 2.0, all tools and projection, relatively no performance.

 

Jacksonville Suns (Double A Affiliate)

 

OF - Mike Stanton (20 years old, 2007 Second Round Pick)

2009 (AA) - 299 AB, .231/.311/.455 (.766), 16 HR, 31/99 BB/K

2009 (A+) - 180 AB, .294/.390/.578 (.968), 12 HR, 28/45 BB/K

April 2010 - 77 AB, .338/.490/.805 (1.295), 10 HR, 22/22 BB/K

 

May 2010 - 96 AB, .271/.379/.594 (.973), 8 HR, 17/28 BB/K, 29% whiff rate

Total - 173 AB, .301/.431/.688 (1.118), 18 HR, 39/50 BB/K, 29% whiff rate

 

Not much to be said except, I sincerely hope expectations are tempered because the power is no doubt for real, but he misses a lot of baseballs and there are going to be a significant amount of strikeouts. If he hits like his 2009 AA in the majors this year, that has to be viewed as an enormous success and great potential for the future as he learns how to fight off breaking pitches. He is hitting lefties and righties equally as hard, however he has a (hilarious) home/away split of 1.413 home vs .813 away. I’m not sure if that is something to be concerned about because the sample size is low, but that’s so big it becomes notable. Regardless, I suspect he is with the Marlins within two weeks once all Super 2 issues have expired.

 

SS - Osvaldo Martinez

April 2010 - 85 AB, .318/.408/.376 (.785)

 

May 2010 - 109 AB, .352/.454/.444 (.898), 2 HR, 17/5 BB/K

Total - 193 AB, .337/.434/.415 (.849), 2 HR, 29/19 BB/K

 

Mike Stanton is so powerful he makes those around him awesome as well. The last 10 days of May, Martinez has struggled (.171/.326/.171(.497)) so his hot streak may be over, but you can’t take away what he is doing in AA right now. It will be interesting to see how he hits without Stanton around giving him preferably pitches to hit, but it’s a toss up between Martinez and Skipworth of who the breakout bat of the year is in the minors. Right now, have to go with Martinez because of those awesome awesome contact and walk rates. He is also exquisite defensively, so if he even hits a little, he could turn into a very positive player at 2B or SS down the road.

 

3B - Matt Dominguez (20 years old, 2007 First Round Pick)

2009 (AFL) - 48 AB, .188/.227/.396 (.623), 2 HR, 2/9 BB/K

2009 (AA) - 97 AB, .186/.292/.320 (.612), 2 HR, 14/24 BB/K

2009 (A+) - 381 AB, .262/.333/.420 (.753), 11 HR, 38/68 BB/K

April 2010 - 68 AB, .206/.325/.368 (.693), 1 HR, 12/17 BB/K

 

May 2010 - 106 AB, .226/.297/.406 (.702), 4 HR, 10/23 BB/K

Total - 174 AB, .218/.308/.391 (.699), 5 HR, 22/40 BB/K

 

Still struggling in AA. He started very slow last year as well so we shall see if he can pick it up over the summer. Also important to note, Dominguez is the 4th youngest player in the Southern League so he is going against competition much older. It’s not an excuse for hitting .218 on the year, but it’s reasonably for him to have extra growing pains as the Marlins aggressively promote him through the system.

 

Quick Notes: Brandon Tripp is still hitting the crap out of the ball (.393/.431/.623 in May). He is a fringe OF prospect, but if Petersen, Raynor, Cousins, and Carroll all fail for another year and Tripp is still around, could sneak his way into a backup OF slot.

 

New Orleans Zephyrs (Triple A Affiliate)

*Overall stats through June 2nd around 6:00pm, as opposed to May 31st for everyone else*

 

1B - Logan Morrison (22 years old, 2005 22nd Round Pick, Draft and Follow)

2009 (AA) - 278 AB, .277/.411/.442 (.854), 8 HR, 63/46 BB/K

April 2010 - 40 AB, .300/.383/.600 (.983), 2 HR, 6/6 BB/K

 

May 2010 - 32 AB, .281/.395/.469 (.863), 1 HR, 5/3 BB/K

Total - 74 AB, .284/.393/.527 (.920), 3 HR, 13/9 BB/K

 

Morrison returned May 24th after being out for 5 weeks with a shoulder injury. The hitting has resumed being the same. He is close to MLB ready, and if Gaby falters in a month or two will probably replace him as I think it goes without saying Morrison is the future at 1B. The Marlins could really use his lefty stick.

 

CF - Scott Cousins (25 years old, 2006 third round pick)

2009 (AA) - 482 AB, .263/.323/.448 (.771), 12 HR, 42/107 BB/K, 27/9 SB/CS

vs RHP - 365 AB, .279/.336/.460 (.796), 7 HR, 35/69 BB/K

April 2010 - 62 AB, .210/.292/.290 (.582), 1 HR, 7/13 BB/K, 2/0 SB/CS

 

May 2010 - 39 AB, .282/.300/.487 (.787), 1 HR, 1/7 BB/K, 1 SB

 

Cousins only played the first 13 days of May and unfortunately got injured because it looked like he was starting to hit a little bit. He returned June 1 and went 1/4.

 

Bryan Petersen and Brett Hayes - Played most of May with the MLB squad so their stats are not posted because they are rather insignificant.

 

John Raynor, selected by Pittsburgh in the Rule5 draft, was returned to the Marlins. He is batting .292/.280/.375 in his limited at bats since his return, and is currently injured.

 

Emilio Bonifacio hit .299/.396/.333 (.729), with an astonishing 14/14 BB/K in May. On the year he is at 142 AB, .289/.361/.352 (.713). If he can do that line in the bigs, he could become a pretty solid spot starter and roll player for the team.

 

Quick Notes: Donnie Murphy, a 27 year old MILB free agent this past winter, is hitting the bejesus out of the ball with a .361/.410/.708 May, and .969 OPS through 130 PA. Murphy was out all of 2009 with an injury, but is making most of his time. He is primarily playing SS, but he is in the vein of a 2B/SS/3B backup. If the team sours on Barden, he may be ahead of Bonifacio to fill the “Amezaga� bench spot... Another MILB free agent, this one more recognizable, Hector Luna has a .287/.365/.478 line on the year and would probably be an adequate backup infielder. He is not known for his glove however... Brad Davis is 4th on the Marlins catcher depth chart and has a .282/.328/.436 line. His ceiling is probably a marginal backup catcher, but that is valuable for organizational depth purposes.

[gizmo]

Great write up as always Lou. Very insightful

[dim]

Not gonna lie Lou, not one of my favorite write ups from you. Still appreciate them regardless...

 

And I honestly think you are making people prepare for worst case scenario Stanton. I think you are telling us to tamper down our expectations on this board when the people who should lower their expectations are the casual fans. Most people on this board and people who follow both the Marlins and Stanton closely understand his issues with strikeouts and contact. I know that it will always be an issue with him throughout his career. As I have stated in the past, he will and should never be expected to be a .300 hitter at any point in his career.

 

However, his raw power should give everybody reason to expect an immediate power presence. I mean he's averaging probably 450 feet per home run this year, that's just sick. Close to a home run every 2.5 games. There's reason for excitement, and I think we should expect him to put up close to Cabrera's rookie numbers, except his average (and probably his OBP) will be lower, probably in the .240-.250 area; however, the home runs should continue to show. He should come in immediately and probably hit at least 18+ home runs (a little over 4 home runs per month isn't asking for much), and considering the dimensions of the stadium, and the fact that every ball hit by Stanton is usually a rocket off the bat (I've seen him bat in Spring Training games and a few videos online, not much), he should be able to hit doubles with ease from an early stage. His slugging will be awesome from the get go, and thus I think he can provide a high amount of RBI's even at this stage in his career.

 

I also felt you haven't given enough credit to Dominguez. You mentioned he's a young guy in the league, but that he is also a notoriously slow starter from what we have seen. In the last few games he has started to find his stride, and by seasons end his OPS should be around .760-770, which is completely acceptable for a kid his age. When you factor in his amazing defense, I would consider it a successful season overall for him, and should be on pace to be the starting 3B Opening Day 2012.

[MarlinsLou]

I'm sorry to disappoint you. But you seriously under estimate people's expectations on this board who are expecting Heyward, Hanley, and Cabrera right now. Posters have been saying he is our most dangerous hitter right now. Screw Hanley and Uggla! Maybe it happens, and that would be great, but this kid is young, raw, and big league pitchers are not going to serve up gopher balls to him. We'll see what happens. The power is real, but so was Rob Deers if you are old enough to have seen him.

[dim]

That's one guy, cornfield. You can't say one person's stupid comments reflect the majority of fans view on Stanton.

[MarlinsLou]

That's one guy, cornfield. You can't say one person's stupid comments reflect the majority of fans view on Stanton.

 

He's the worst, but there are 27 pages of it. Maybe it's more of hatred directed to Coghlan and Maybin, but Stanton is not fixing all the problems on this team which is the point. I'd be thrilled if people expect 2003 Cabrera. THRILLED. I hope you are right, but after seeing how this fan base throws everyone under the bus if they aren't immediately good, I am not optimistic. I pray Stanton doesn't start off like Smoak.

[mystikol87]

That's one guy, cornfield. You can't say one person's stupid comments reflect the majority of fans view on Stanton.

 

He's the worst, but there are 27 pages of it. Maybe it's more of hatred directed to Coghlan and Maybin, but Stanton is not fixing all the problems on this team which is the point. I'd be thrilled if people expect 2003 Cabrera. THRILLED. I hope you are right, but after seeing how this fan base throws everyone under the bus if they aren't immediately good, I am not optimistic. I pray Stanton doesn't start off like Smoak.

 

Mike Stanton cares. He doesn't chew. He doesn't Smoak.

 

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow-D9gCp-UA

[Nny]

The numbers so far in his milb career expect him to turn into an average defensive ML SS. So, moving him to 2b or 3b puts him at +5 runs.

 

We also more or less know that we're getting barely any power, and barely any strike out rates. Essentially what we don't know is walks. If we assume 5 HRs (.075 ISO) and 13% K rate with a .310 BABIP, the question is, how much does he have to walk to 1) be average, and 2) be above average.

 

First is roughly what to expect out of him walking now. Let's say 8%. That's .271/.338/.346/.683 line, for a 1.78 WAR, or just a bit below average starter. To get to an average player (2.1 WAR for 150 games), it'd require just a bump to a 9% walk rate, which raises his line to .271/.347/.347/.695. This basically puts him right on par with where Petersen and Cousins currently are in terms of expected WAR

 

To get up to "good starter" territory (3 WAR), it'd require a jump all the way to 13% walk rate (.269/.373/.349/.722). For this year, he's at 12.5%. So that seems very unlikely. Though, the more he walks, the less he'd strike out most likely, so it wouldn't require that high of a walk rate. But it'd still require a high rate. If we assume he loses 1% K rate for every 1% BB rate he gains, that'd mean it'd require 11% BB rate/10% K rate (.280/.368/.358/.726). And considering how majority of time, players with high BB%/low power in minors see their BB% rate crash in the majors (i.e. Eckstein goes from 13% in minors to 6.5% in majors), and even a 8% rate might be too optimistic. 6% BB rate drops him down to 1.35 WAR...good for bench, bad for starting.

 

So, it seems he's most likely to become good bench, maybe ok starter. Which certainly isn't bad, especially given our 2b/3b depth (and REALLY especially considering the only thing after Hanley at SS is Bonifacio, so if Hanley gets injured we're so f***ed). But his upside is very limited, compared to Cousins or Petersen who both have the potential in power to really break out. So I'd certainly say he's place in your list is perfect behind those two (Outside of this sentence, this post is just randomly talking about him, not about his placement in your list). But, with one of Cantu/Uggla gone next year, possibly both, if he ends up getting a starting gig, he should be "fine". Especially if we hit him 9th. Having a high OBP/low SLG guy like that hitting 9th so that we get more guys in front of Hanley (and Stanton ) without taking at bats away from better hitting players is awsm.

[bobbob1313]

He will lead off for us.

[MarlinsLou]

Yea, if we get Amezaga that's fantastic. Anything more is a bonus. I also like how he splits 100 OPS higher career versus RHP than LHP....Martinez career MILB splits, vs RHP 927 AB, .285/.352/.366 (.718), 9 HR, 85 BB/115 K. (.318 BABIP). Super premium bench bat right there if that translates.