The whole operating philosophy that has governed the Marlins decisions since the 2005 season has just not worked. While the Marlins have managed to more or less break even that will soon change unless the Marlins start doing business another way. Most agree that the Marlins have a very good scouting department. So identifying talent is not the problem. The problems arise with how the Marlins handle the contracts given (or not given) to the talent.

 

First take into consideration our competition in the division going forward. Philadelphia, the top dog, just put together arguably one of the best rotations ever assembled and looks to be very good for some time to come. The Braves have a solid mix of veterans and young cheap talent - and more money to spend. The Nationals are spending loads of money on talent (how well it is being spent is arguable) and also have some very solid prospects percolating in their system. The Mets are still terrible, but with a change in the front office and $60 million coming off the books after next season they could quickly get back into the mix again.

 

If the Marlins are going to stay competitive going forward they need to change how they deal with players. The old year-to-year performance pay just isn't going to cut it. This approach has failed time and time again, leaving the organization vulnerable as players progress through their arbitration years and the cost of long-term contracts becomes prohibitive (see: Cabrera, Miguel). Not only that, this approach has poisoned the pot when it comes to negotiating long-term contracts with other players and made them less likely to take a "hometown discount" (see: Uggla, Dan).

 

With the opening of the new stadium around the corner and the promise of increased revenues from it, there is no better time than now to change gears. Simply put, if the Marlins identify talent (which they are good at) and are reasonably certain they will be above average to superstar quality major league ballplayers they need to lock that talent up long-term early on. They need to take a page out of other cost-conscious teams such as the Rays and start pulling off Evan Longoria and James Shields type deals.

 

There is risk involved as players might not pan out or be hobbled by injuries. This risk is lessened though by the fact the Marlins have a top flight scouting crew. Locking up talent early also frees up more money down the road to fill in the gaps with free agents if needed. It'll also send a message to the players that the team is committed to keeping their talent in Marlins uniforms and maybe more will be open to giving the Marlins that "hometown discount" down the road if they are not one of those locked up early on.

 

If the Marlins are going to be competitive in this division going forward while still remaining cost-conscious they need to start changing now. A certain player named Mike Stanton may be a good starting point.

I'd be happy to see them sign Stanton.

 

Sorry, but to me, the rest of your post has little to no footing. It's not like players take bad deals because it's pre-arbitration, and the risks are significant, especially for a moderate payroll team like the Marlins. And scouting doesn't decrease the risks of injury much, if at all.

 

Year-to-year didn't fail with Dontrelle Willis. If we would have bought Ricky out with a big contract after his 2008, we'd be feeling pretty shaky about it today. How about Volstad after his sub-3.00 rookie ERA - should we have jumped on the chance and given him a 7-year, $35 MM deal? You'd be hating that one right about now, too.

 

The team locked up it's 2 biggest starts: Hanley and JJ. I don't think Uggla's decision to not take 4/$48 had anything to do with them not being "committed to keeping their talent in Marlins uniforms."

 

And James Shields had an ERA over 5 last year, so I'm not sure the Rays are so smitten with that contract, either.

You only give these type of deals out to potential phenoms.

Stanton's one of those guys, but that's it.

 

And there's no guarantee that the player accepts such deals, anyway.

 

You don't give these type of deals to guys who are "above average." I'm not sure why you brought up the Rays and James Shields; that's turned out to be pretty bad.

I'm not exactly a contract guru, but in my opinion it is way too early to offer Stanton a big contract. He only has half a season of major league experience. Now if he goes out and hits 40 dingers in 2011, I would be open to seeing some negotiations next offseason, but that is only if he demonstrates that he is an absolute stud this early in his career.

Where to start? The Marlins really can't make a fundamental shift in the way they run things until they're in the new stadium. If the stadium deal was done earlier than they certainly could have made an effort to sign Cabrera, but his conditioning was a real concern when they let him go. As for the approach on contracts I agree the Marlins need to try to lock up some players now. I would suggest they take a similar path the Indians made in the mid-90's and buy out a few of them before they reach arbitration and free agency and like the Indians with a new stadium in place this could happen.