November 25, 200322 yr If anyone is interested, take a look at this...neat stuff. http://www.baseballprimer.com/bodies/szymb...i/ZiPS04BAT.htm c/o baseballprimer.com and my buddy dan szymborksi The most interesting thing is the minor league player projections he came up with.
November 25, 200322 yr Author They are not random. He gets to these numbers by using aging projections among other tools. I'll try and find his 2003 ZiPS projections. A bunch of people from this community (baseball primer) are starting to get jobs in front offices, so they know what they are talking about.
November 25, 200322 yr They are saying Miguel Cabrera will hit 17 home runs, Mike Lowell will hit 26, and Ramon Castro won't have any! Bogus.
November 25, 200322 yr uhh...he says Castro will hit 13 homers and Tejeda 29. My bad on Ramon, I read the wrong Castro. But even Ramon, if a starter, will hit more than 13. More like 25-30. And who said anything about Tejada?
November 25, 200322 yr And please tell me, when did Jeff Conine turn into Alex Gonzalez at the plate?
November 25, 200322 yr They are not random. He gets to these numbers by using aging projections among other tools. I'll try and find his 2003 ZiPS projections. A bunch of people from this community (baseball primer) are starting to get jobs in front offices, so they know what they are talking about. Yes, they may be smart people, but like Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA, it's another bad projecting tool from good baseball minds.
November 25, 200322 yr I'm sorry to make another post here, but since when was Josh Phelps a better hitter than Mike Lowell!?
November 25, 200322 yr I'm sorry to make another post here, but since when was Josh Phelps a better hitter than Mike Lowell!? As of the posting of that article thingy :angry
November 25, 200322 yr Actually I wouldn't be surprised if Phelps blew up next season. I'm not disagreeing with that at all. But he won't be better than Lowell. Josh needs to get some plat discipline too. He K'ed over 100 times in just over 100 games I believe.
November 25, 200322 yr Actually I wouldn't be surprised if Phelps blew up next season. I'm not disagreeing with that at all. But he won't be better than Lowell. Josh needs to get some plat discipline too. He K'ed over 100 times in just over 100 games I believe. He could very well do better than Lowell, seeing as Lowell didn't do anything the second half of the season. Josh has decent plate discipline. He may strikeout a lot but he'll take a walk, which is why his OBP was still higher than Lowell's.
November 25, 200322 yr He could very well do better than Lowell, seeing as Lowell didn't do anything the second half of the season. Josh has decent plate discipline. He may strikeout a lot but he'll take a walk, which is why his OBP was still higher than Lowell's. Lowell K'ed less in more games, had a better average, better OPS, ect. He did better than Phelps in every category BUT OBP. Josh is in no way at Mike's level.
November 25, 200322 yr Easiest player in baseball to predict...Magglio Ordonez. He's good for about .320-30-100 every year :thumbup
November 25, 200322 yr http://www.baseballprimer.com/bodies/szymb...i/ZiPS04PIT.htm Pitchers Name Team P Age ERA W L S G GS CG SHO INN H R ER BB K HR GDP Armando Almanza* FLA mr 31 5.36 2 4 0 51 0 0 0 47.0 44 31 28 24 50 9 0 Josh Beckett FLA sp 24 3.51 9 6 0 22 21 0 0 123.0 100 52 48 45 140 11 0 Toby Borland FLA mr 35 4.00 4 4 0 55 0 0 0 72.0 62 35 32 35 67 4 0 Ced Bowers* FLA mr 26 4.62 3 4 0 38 5 0 0 76.0 67 42 39 42 76 8 0 Nate Bump FLA mr 27 4.10 7 6 0 32 16 0 0 112.0 116 56 51 33 61 7 0 A.J. Burnett FLA sp 27 3.92 11 9 0 27 26 0 0 172.0 148 82 75 77 170 12 0 Mike Flannery FLA mr 24 5.34 3 6 0 65 0 0 0 64.0 72 41 38 25 41 1 0 Bryce Florie FLA mr 34 5.96 3 6 0 19 13 0 0 71.0 72 51 47 47 55 10 0 Mike Fyhrie FLA mr 34 4.77 6 8 0 28 19 0 0 132.0 133 77 70 60 88 12 0 Franklyn Gracesqui* FLA mr 24 4.94 3 3 0 43 0 0 0 51.0 41 30 28 44 51 1 0 Delvin James FLA sp 26 5.38 3 6 0 32 18 0 0 117.0 139 77 70 34 58 18 0 Steve Kent* FLA mr 25 5.43 2 3 0 36 1 0 0 58.0 60 38 35 36 32 4 0 Braden Looper FLA cl 29 3.99 4 4 0 75 0 0 0 79.0 76 38 35 28 58 5 0 David Manning FLA sp 31 5.93 3 7 0 21 16 0 0 91.0 95 66 60 64 55 9 0 Blaine Neal FLA mr 26 3.95 3 3 0 59 0 0 0 66.0 63 31 29 27 44 2 0 Kevin Olsen FLA sp 27 3.74 6 5 0 20 20 0 0 118.0 115 53 49 28 89 10 0 Carl Pavano FLA sp 28 3.94 11 9 0 32 27 0 0 169.0 169 81 74 43 118 15 0 Brad Penny FLA sp 26 3.93 11 10 0 30 30 0 0 181.0 175 86 79 51 141 17 0 Tommy Phelps* FLA mr 30 4.13 3 2 0 40 4 0 0 72.0 71 36 33 26 52 6 0 Mark Redman* FLA sp 30 3.95 11 10 0 28 28 0 0 180.0 176 86 79 55 128 14 0 Aaron Small FLA mr 32 5.09 6 8 0 27 16 0 0 106.0 120 66 60 30 56 16 0 Tim Spooneybarger FLA mr 24 3.69 2 2 0 56 0 0 0 61.0 53 27 25 26 55 3 0 Michael Tejera* FLA mr 27 4.65 6 7 0 41 17 0 0 120.0 120 68 62 46 92 14 0 Justin Wayne FLA sp 25 4.50 7 7 0 28 27 0 0 148.0 155 81 74 53 83 12 0 Dontrelle Willis* FLA sp 22 3.47 12 8 0 30 30 0 0 179.0 163 76 69 40 155 12 0
November 25, 200322 yr Author thankw for posting those rferry...interesting that K Olsen projects to have a nice season.
November 25, 200322 yr He could very well do better than Lowell, seeing as Lowell didn't do anything the second half of the season. Josh has decent plate discipline. He may strikeout a lot but he'll take a walk, which is why his OBP was still higher than Lowell's. Lowell K'ed less in more games, had a better average, better OPS, ect. He did better than Phelps in every category BUT OBP. Josh is in no way at Mike's level. Yes but Lowell did so terrible the second half it wouldn't be surprising if he didn't do all that great in 2004.
November 25, 200322 yr Yes but Lowell did so terrible the second half it wouldn't be surprising if he didn't do all that great in 2004. That makes no sense.
November 25, 200322 yr Yes but Lowell did so terrible the second half it wouldn't be surprising if he didn't do all that great in 2004. That makes no sense. See Paul Konerko's 2nd half stats in 2002 compared to his first half ones, and entire season stats in 2003 to see why that does make sense.
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