Here are both of my opinions on the Lowell and Castillo signings....please critique or add your own analysis.

 

I've come around big time on signing Luis for a few reasons:

 

(1) My argument for not wanting to pay too much for him was because his entire game is his speed which I thought was either in decline or the injured hip wouldn't allow him to make plays.

(2) The Marlins really had no other even DECENT options at 2B within or on the FA market (blah on reese, grudz, vina) so hes a great fit (3rd in win shares in NL)

(3) Since his BA, walks, and defense all remained above average in 2003 WITH his nagging hip, I'm expecting the Castillo of 2000 to emerge.

(4) We got him at a great discount because he was the best 2B FA on a market in which many teams sought a 2B.

 

In sum...the Marlins win.

 

I'm feeling very negative on the Lowell signing though. I'll give reasons later, but I hope we can flip him in the 2nd or 3rd year of his contract for prospects.

 

 

LOWELL:

 

(1) The C position has much more of an uncertainty (Castro mess) right now than 3B. We have a superstar in Cabrera wasting away in the OF when he could be playing a more difficult position at 3B while saving us Lowell's money. Having two ML quality 3B is a huge advantage and we should have tried to shop Lowell (and we still might do this anway) for a young OF/pitching/prospects/whatever. That way we save his money, replace him with someone who WILL be better, and get some good prospects. The way I see it we lock up an above avg 3B for a lot of money, when we have a great replacement already in the wings (for cheap). With this money saved we could sign Pudge to a reasonable contract and maintain our rotation without problems. Now its going to get interesting to say the least.

For a good example of what I'm talking about here, imagine we had both Choi and Lee on our roster. Would you trade the more expensive Lee and plug in a very cheap, productive Choi? Or would you keep both and move Choi to the OF? (lets say he can play it for the examples sake)

 

(2) To say Lowell had a career year in 2003 is an understatement. So from a bargaining standpoint we just bought high. And unfortunately I believe his numbers will come back to earth in 2004, leaving us with an overpriced, little above league average 3B.

 

(3) I think fans still think of wins as the best way to identify a team's success, so I still think we would have been better off letting Lowell go and giving Cabrera 3rd. If we had waited long enough Pudge would probably wind up taking that same deal (roughly Lowell's current deal) once he realized he's not getting 5/50 from anybody. Cabrera/Pudge is a more valuable combo than Cabrera/Lowell.

I think at this time signing Lowell was our best option, especially from a PR standpoint. You know the media would jump all over the FO if they traded Lowell. They would call it a firesale. Also, with Lowell at third and Cabrera in right I feel it gives us the best chance to get back to the World Series next year.

 

Although 2-3 years from now I could see how it would be very beneficial to trade Lowell. I just don't think now would be the right time. Especially after promising to re-sign Lowell midseason.

Castillo Lead the League in IF Hits so he isnt losing the Speed. I suspect this season he was Cautious about stealing and trying not to ReInjure the Hip.

I think at this time signing Lowell was our best option, especially from a PR standpoint. You know the media would jump all over the FO if they traded Lowell. They would call it a firesale. Also, with Lowell at third and Cabrera in right I feel it gives us the best chance to get back to the World Series next year.

 

Although 2-3 years from now I could see how it would be very beneficial to trade Lowell. I just don't think now would be the right time. Especially after promising to re-sign Lowell midseason.

I agree a PR hit would be inevitable if he were to leave which could be mitigated by re-signing Pudge which isn't looking promising now. I still contend that fans see wins as a better indicator of success and not which players are doing the winning.

 

I also agree with your idea about trading him in a few years...I wonder what his contract says about that since its supposedly tied to the stadium?

man...... if louie didnt want be with us i didnt really care, Spivey has skills and i didnt even know we were in the hunt for Hudson didnt think the Jays would give up on him this fast...

 

anyways louie is back, and i hope his speed is too,

 

Got Lowell i mean he is a 2 time all star his stats aren't gonna fall off the map..... i think next year he will have an even better year than he did this year.....

 

 

still i am worried about our pitching and if Juan E is coming back or not

 

keep in mind we still dont have a closer, and no we cant depend on Sppony!

Yeah but you have to wait for the fans to show up while winning. But if you make a commitment to players from the beginning of the season, fans will buy season tickets from the start and not later on the season like they did this year when they started winning.

 

Plus Pudge IMO wont be as much as a PR hit because they can make him look like the bad guy and show him being greedy.

 

I thought the same thing on Lowell and that he might be a fluke year but I dont think so. He did say that this was the best shape he had ever been in and when I watched his homeruns they werent cheap ones either. Plus Cabs gives us good production out of the RF spot and so will Lowell out of the 3rd base spot. Even if Lowell doesnt get 30 homeruns this year. You can most likely count on him for 20-25 homeruns and 100 rbis.

look at lowell's stats...

 

 

they have constantly improved.

 

 

he is in his prime right now.

 

 

dont expect much of a dropoff if any.

look at lowell's stats...

 

 

they have constantly improved.

 

 

he is in his prime right now.

 

 

dont expect much of a dropoff if any.

Xactly............

look at lowell's stats...

 

 

they have constantly improved.

 

 

he is in his prime right now.

 

 

dont expect much of a dropoff if any.

Xactly............ Yup his stats have improven.

Where's that new guy going, the other 3rd baseman, Cabrera. Is he going to right?

Where's that new guy going, the other 3rd baseman, Cabrera. Is he going to right?

Yeah, he'll be in RF next season it's looking like.

I fundamentally agree with you Sham, especially about Lowell but I think you have to factor in the PR value he has visavis geting a stadium deal approved. I also believe, for his onfield play, leadership, etc, as well as the stadium thing, signing Pudge is a must.

look at lowell's stats...

 

 

they have constantly improved.

 

 

he is in his prime right now.

 

 

dont expect much of a dropoff if any.

Xactly............ Yup his stats have improven. Actually they remained very constant for a number of years and THEN took a huge jump. Its all speculation from here, but I say his numbers go back down to career averages.

look at lowell's stats...

 

 

they have constantly improved.

 

 

he is in his prime right now.

 

 

dont expect much of a dropoff if any.

All bias aside, the best thirdbaseman in the majors plays in JRS 81 times a year. He is GG caliber (he'll have one soon) and is a hell of a hitter (one of the best when down two strikes).

 

Yes, I would take Lowell over Rolen.

Where's that new guy going, the other 3rd baseman, Cabrera. Is he going to right?

Yeah, he'll be in RF next season it's looking like. Naw, left.

 

Admin, you should know better than to think that RF isn't set already

His OBP has always been stable except for a .10 increase this year. But the difference between this year and past years is his home run total. One has to wonder if this new found stroke was a fluke or not. Only one way to find out.

Lowell's an abov-average third basemen? What are u smoking :hat ???

 

He was a candidate for Gold Glove and may have won had he not been injured.

 

His hitting has improved year after year after year, and can only get better. Look at the postseason he had. For a person coming off a broken hand I'd say that was above--average if not exceptionally.

 

Sidenote: Any news on our hulking monster Penny? I haven't seen any and would love to know.

Sham, I see your logic on the Lowell situation. But you don't let a Lowell walk away. I think he signed for cheap, he is a high caliber player. If he puts similar numbers on 2004, Lowell would be worth a LOT in trade value, even at 8 millions a year.