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Longtime general manager: Dealing Stanton not enough. Let’s torch this thing.


SonOfJack
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As Derek Jeter’s executives work feverishly to try to dump Giancarlo Stanton, Martin Pradoand Dee Gordon, here’s the question:

 

Do you keep the other key pieces, even knowing that Marcell Ozuna will be unaffordable to Miami as a free agent after 2019, or do you overhaul everything and do a total rebuild, trying to replicate what the World Series Houston Astros accomplished.

 

The Marlins have told teams that Christian Yelich and Ozuna aren’t available, but at least one longtime former GM believes that’s a mistake.

 

The thinking is this: You’re probably not going to win with Yelich and Ozuna but no Stanton and Gordon and mediocre pitching, so why not just start from scratch.

 

“The cut has to go much deeper than [stanton] if you are going to rebuild their franchise into one that will have sustainability,” MLB Network analyst and former Rockies general manager Dan O’Dowd said. “That's a hard pill to swallow. The one position you don't want to be is in the middle where you are not good enough to win.

 

“My approach would be you have to be in active listening mode. If you wait another year on Ozuna [in his last season before free agency], the trade value goes down dramatically.

 

What is Christian Yelich going to be if he’s surrounded by a bunch of young players? You have to aggressively put yourself in position to maximize every single asset. They've got a payroll projected to be $145 million and then $170 million in 2019. They don't have players internally to replace those players.

 

“That’s why I would advocate a total rebuild here, and I am looking for everything. It's much easier to build through position players [than trade mostly for pitching].”

 

O’Dowd, the Rockies’ GM for 15 years until 2014, made another good point: “In today's game, when you are using 35 to 40 players per year to get through a season, you have to have impactful depth and they don't have any. The dropoff is precipitous beyond their front line players.

 

Marlins' new owners talk about the future of the franchise

 

“They are light years away in signings [from being a contender]. You have to have a ton of great drafts to augment frontline players. By the time you do that, the frontline players will be gone anyway.”

 

O’Dowd said “where I got into problems is I went to Colorado with the mindset of going with a complete rebuild and then was told [by ownership] we would try to contend and rebuild at the same time because of the fan base...

 

“Every part of your decision making process is split two different ways: your international signings; you can't give a definitive clear direction to your people to say, ‘This is what we're doing.’”

 

Jeter apparently doesn’t want to totally alienate the fan base by trading every good player. But that shouldn’t matter in South Florida market, O’Dowd said, because “if they rebuild totally, the Marlins attendance [historically] didn't fluctuate with them being average or sucking.”

 

But here’s the one thing O’Dowd said the new owners should not do: “I would not take less for Yelich by attaching Junichi Tazawa or Brad Ziegler. You have to maximize talented players. If you don't maximize their talent at this stage, that rebuild will take much longer.”

 

ESPN Scouts Inc., analyst Keith Law, a former member of the Blue Jays front office, said dealing Yelich and Gordon would be more beneficial to the Marlins than trading Stanton, and here’s why:

 

“If you trade Stanton, they are going to have to be willing to pay a good portion to get it off the books and pay even more to get good young players in return,” Law said. “It’s more realistic to trade Yelich (or Ozuna) and Gordon.”

 

Yelich, who has completed two years of a seven-year, $49 million contract, “would be the first guy I would put out there because his team-friendly deal makes him so much more attractive,” Law said. “You often see ownership groups reluctant to move guys on team friendly deals. You think, ‘I can build around this.’

 

“With someone like Yelich or Ozuna [who’s a free agent after 2019], like Gordon, these are guys who are going to be underpaid and they have so much more trade value.”

 

Law said Yelich could net a package similar to what the Yankees got from Cleveland for Andrew Miller – “four prospects, two top 100 MLB prospects. And the other two guys in that deal are [potential] big leaguers.”

 

They might be able to get something close to that for catcher J.T. Realmuto.

 

Law said Gordon, who’s one year into a five-year, $50 million deal, is tradable “because he’s at a peak age and you are not concerned about a sudden dropoff… You could go to [this week’s] GM meetings and say we are [listening] on Yelich and Gordon and have them traded [by December] for a pretty nice return. Yelich, Ozuna and Gordon are all at ages where the market is very good.”

 

But the Marlins already have decided they prefer to deal Stanton and Gordon and will have to figure out a way to clear another $13 million if they cannot find a taker for Prado, which could then put Ozuna in play.

 

Whether that’s the prudent approach is debatable.

 

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article185014783.html

 

 

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haha, was just gonna post this.  I believe this is what the plan will end up being.

 

The only way that happens is if Jeter isn't serious about not listening on Yelich and Ozuna.

 

If he's saying that for now just to get Stanton unloaded first and avoid potential Stanton suitors preferring Yelich or Ozuna, then he's a genius. I doubt this is the case, though.

 

 

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The only way that happens is if Jeter isn't serious about not listening on Yelich and Ozuna.

 

If he's saying that for now just to get Stanton unloaded first and avoid potential Stanton suitors preferring Yelich or Ozuna, then he's a genius. I doubt this is the case, though.

 

I think he's serious about Yelich.  I understand keeping Yelich.  I dont think he's serious about Ozuna.  And i think Ozuna is more of a guy who's market will become stronger after the initial wave of free agency and someone misses out on a guy like JD Martinez.  

 

 

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Yeah I think a lot of this is wishful thinking on @fish20's part. Like he knows along with us, it'd be ridiculously stupid to not trade Ozuna. For some reason he's trying to rationalize it though into Jeter playing around and planning to do it. Sorry but no, it just seems Jeter is being that dumb.

 

We'll find out.  Jeter isnt making the decisions mostly, its Denbo and Hill.  I think when it gets later in the offseason they will have a stronger market for Ozuna.  I think their number 1 priority is seeing what they get for Stanton, and then moving on to others.  We'll see.  You could certainly be right.  Im not claiming to have any inside knowledge, this just seems like a pretty obvious rebuild and Jeter seems to just not be trying to say everyone is for sale and thus lose possible leverage.

 

 

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I remember O'Dowd being mediocre as well but replacing Mike Hill would be great and at least in this article O'Dowd has the right mindset. 

 

I agree.  Mike Hill sucks, but I also would like to find out how much of what he did under loria was his doing and how much was Loria interfering way too much in baseball operations.  I thought we would hear more about that type of stuff after the sale went through, but there hasnt been much yet.

 

 

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I agree.  Mike Hill sucks, but I also would like to find out how much of what he did under loria was his doing and how much was Loria interfering way too much in baseball operations.  I thought we would hear more about that type of stuff after the sale went through, but there hasnt been much yet.

 

Yeah I've thought about this too. I guess we're about to have no choice but to find out how good Mike Hill really is, or isn't. 

 

 

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So, even though this is all hypothetical from O'Dowd... he'd trade everyone except Stanton right?

 

Makes me wonder how the fanbase would react if we did that. The casual fan doesn't want us trading away the probable MVP so what would happen if we kept him and rebuilt despite him? 

 

I know you cant really do that, but i wish they wouldnt take into consideration what the fanbase thought of the moves and just did the moves that they know are necessary.  Fans had an opportunity to come out for the last 7 years of Stanton, and we havent even had to open up the upper deck for almost every game.  They lost their credibility of backlash after not showing up for years.

 

 

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Yeah I've thought about this too. I guess we're about to have no choice but to find out how good Mike Hill really is, or isn't. 

 

I also think Denbo is gonna have a lot more power than Mike Hill.  I think Hill might just be around still because they need to have someone with knowledge of the organization's assets right now.

 

 

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Good point, I can see changes there coming in a year or two.

 

haha only time will tell.  Interested to see how it turns out.  I dont take much from the initial public words from the new ownership/front office guys.  Cant really take over a team and publicly say that your first move is going to be to blow up every piece with trade value, even if that is their true plan.

 

 

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Translation: They keep Mike Hill around just so they are able to ask him "what the hell were you thinking?"

 

I like to imagine its a sort of bullying situation where they pick one deal from the past few years and spend an entire day mocking him on each one until they are out of deals, and then they fire him.  So he will be fired in about 3 years after they spend 1 day mocking each bad trade.

 

 

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I like to imagine its a sort of bullying situation where they pick one deal from the past few years and spend an entire day mocking him on each one until they are out of deals, and then they fire him.  So he will be fired in about 3 years after they spend 1 day mocking each bad trade.

 

Only 3 years?!

 

 

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I don't think Hill is any good to be honest. Right now the philosophy of this team is still jacked up too. We are basically doing what a partial rebuild and still trying to compete. They are looking to do another 2017 season?

 

Ozuna is absolutely our best piece right now and his value is insane. I'm still not sold on him though. For all we know he could come back in 2018 and not have such a great season especially with no Stanton in the line up. That is not a chance that we can take. Build off his great season and cash in big time. I believe we can definitely get a good deal for him. Not something like Yelich but, something that we are looking for. Ozuna is repped by Boras and won't be resigning here nor should we try to sign him.

 

I would really like to keep Yelich but if they are gonna tear it all down, sell him off too and do it properly. Eventually they will get rid of Stanton once all the other players are traded away. I really enjoyed Winter Meetings 2005 when they were selling off everything and we got some pretty good pieces back in the deal. Especially the deal with Boston that netted us Hanley Ramirez at the time.

 

 

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I like to imagine its a sort of bullying situation where they pick one deal from the past few years and spend an entire day mocking him on each one until they are out of deals, and then they fire him.  So he will be fired in about 3 years after they spend 1 day mocking each bad trade.

 

I wouldn't be suprised if Hill is kept around for the remainder of his contract or until most of it is paid off and they let him go. This ownership is not trying to throw away money in any capacity. 

 

 

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I like to imagine its a sort of bullying situation where they pick one deal from the past few years and spend an entire day mocking him on each one until they are out of deals, and then they fire him.  So he will be fired in about 3 years after they spend 1 day mocking each bad trade.

 

Ok now I like you. This is great. 

 

 

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