Out of the Past

I think you have to start Beckett tonight if you are the Sox. I agree. If he pitches tonight he would be on full rest for the potential game 7. This is a no brainer.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=290147%22]http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=290147"]http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=290147"]http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=290147"]http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=290147[/url] SN awards: A-Rod is player of the year October 15, 2007 Sporting News The ballots are in for Sporting News' 2007 baseball awards -- as voted on by 488 major league baseball players and 30 managers. Both managers of the year and the player of the year helped push their teams into the postseason, and a few of the All-Stars selected by their peers played into October, as well. Player of the year Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: The numbers Alex Rodriguez put up in the 2007 regular season are straight out of a video game: 54 home runs, 156 RBIs and 143 runs, all tops in the majors. He hit .314 and posted a career-best .422 on-base percentage. Even the one stat that declined significantly was a good thing: A-Rod's errors dropped from 24 in 2006 to 13 in '07. Here's one other A-Rod number: 72.3. That's the percent of major league players -- 353 out of the 488 who participated -- who voted for A-Rod as Sporting News player of the year. AL manager of the year Eric Wedge, Indians: Based on 14 A.L. managers' ballots, Wedge received six votes, two more than the Angels' Mike Scosia. NL manager of the year Bob Melvin, Diamondbacks: Based on the 16 N.L. managers' ballots, Melvin got six votes. The Phillies' Charlie Manuel received five. Other AL awards Rookie of the year: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox: After hitting .182 in April, he hit .333 the rest of the way and supplied strong defense. Comeback player of the year: Carlos Pena, 1B, Devil Rays: A year after hitting one homer in 33 big league at-bats, Pena swatted 46. All-Stars: C.C. Sabathia, P, Indians Carlos Pena, 1B, Devil Rays Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees Jorge Posada, C, Yankees Magglio Ordonez, OF, Tigers Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Angels David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox *Joe Borowski, RP, Indians Other NL awards Rookie of the year: Ryan Braun, 3B, Brewers: He hit 34 homers and drove in 97 runs -- and batted .324 -- in roughly four months. Comeback player of the year: Dmitri Young, 1B, Nationals: A season after he was released, Young finished eighth in the N.L. batting race. All-Stars: Jake Peavy, P, Padres Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins David Wright, 3B, Mets Matt Holliday, OF, Rockies Carlos Lee, OF, Astros Aaron Rowand, OF, Phillies Russell Martin, C, Dodgers *Jose Valverde, RP, Diamondbacks *Relief pitchers determined by saves plus wins.

I would think the arbiter would determine who the "comps" are based on the guidelines set be the CBA and not based on what baseball-reference says.

There more in the article than what I quoted. It's a good one. http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?opt...0&Itemid=41 In a player's first time through the arbitration process, his career is weighted almost as heavily as his platform year, with his platform year defined as the most recent season. However, in each subsequent time through arbitration the platform season is considered almost exclusively. In addition, few things matter more than playing time. If a player is sent to the minors, traded, or lands on the disabled list, those situations are generally marks against the player. The other key to keep in mind is that the arbitration process is governed by what front offices call "comps", or comparable players. Each side, team and agent, is trying to find the most favorable comps that they can use to their advantage. Finally, the comps generally do not go back further than four to five years. Arbiters want to be able to use comparisons from the same time period, as there are different elements that comprise each era of the game. As such, you will not see Barry Bonds used as a comp for Miguel Cabrera or see Mike Piazza used as a comp for Joe Mauer. As valid as those comparisons may be in the real world, they matter little in the arbitration room. For a more detailed description of the ins and outs of the process, see Tom Gorman's piece over at BP (subscription required)

Actually, RFerry, it's quite easy to argue for a pay-raise for Dontrelle. When you compare his career accomplishments to others through similar age and see his career earnings to be less than half of others like Beckett and Prior and you see Matt Sosnik has the case made for him. Pay scale in arbitration isn't a what have you done for me lately, it's here's what I've done and why I deserve it. Sosnik could argue for a $9 million or so pay-day based on his career production and service time and easily get it. One of the most ridiculous post I've read. Arbitration is about comparable players in service time and not about comparable players in age and as this is 3rd arbitration year his latest season (5.17 ERA) takes precedence over his career numbers. I wish we could bet on what he'll get... easy money.

The two major strikes agaists Olivo are his poor OBP and that he can't catch the ball. In '07 Barret was just barely above Olivo in both OBP and catching pitches (passed balls). Your original comment that Barret would be excellent is ridiculous unless you add about 983 qualifiers which is what you've done after I replied. Had you added the qualifiers from the get go I would have never replied. So, who do you want on the marlins among Olivo, Barret, Kendall, Castro, Lo Duca, Torrelaba, and I'll add Javier Valentien who wasnt mentioned. What. Catcher. Do. You. Want. The. Marlins. To. Sign. If. They. Go. The. Free. Agent. Route. As. Per. The. Article. Production, Salary, everything is in play. I would prefer Lo Duca, Torrealba or Valentin over Barret and not so much because I like them but because I don't like Barret.

Your analysis ignores passed balls. The only catcher who allowed more passed balls per inning than Barret is Olivo and it was barely at that.. Olivo allowed one passed ball every 62 innings while Barret allowed one every 64 innings. I think I'll pass on the .281 OBP guy who can't catch the ball and who can't throw anyone out and who is a**hole to boot. I don't mind a**holes who can play but it's retarded to add an a**hole who can't play and more so when the a**hole is a catcher and the team has a young pitching staff. This is fabulous. I laugh at bringing up passed balls in general, as we're resorting to that versus far superior statistics, but please address the argument, not the problems of these obvious imperfect options. SO what catcher do you want. If you want to use passed balls to qualify this, be my guest. I don't care what you use as long as it's a tangible thought. Passed Ball Barret Jason "Not as good as Barret, but still draws walks" Kendall Ramon Castro or one of the other FA catchers (that really get easily tossed from the whole debate based off higher salary/similar ceiling issues, or not as good as the other guys) Don't get me wrong. I would love to pass on ALL of these dudes, trade for Jeff Clement, Salty, or Shoppach, or even Montero, but the article says FA catchers, these are the guys. Who ya got? Michael Barret, and his apparent past ballsness, is still the best option to me of this group versus hoping Kendall hits that .350 OBP or hoping Castro is not a 2007 sample size fluke (plus would even come here since we ran him out of town once). Answer the question based on the choices from the article and what's on FA. You gotta it in you. I know it. The two major strikes agaists Olivo are his poor OBP and that he can't catch the ball. In '07 Barret was just barely above Olivo in both OBP and catching pitches (passed balls). Your original comment that Barret would be excellent is ridiculous unless you add about 983 qualifiers which is what you've done after I replied. Had you added the qualifiers from the get go I would have never replied.

Ramp.. but how much were these "comparables" making when they had his service time? That's the relevant issue. Also, the first time you go to arbitration the career numbers take precedence over the previous season's numbers but in the subsequent arbitration years the previous season's numbers take precedence over the career numbers.

What seems to be collective amnesia on the part of the local sports media is that Cabrera and Willis already collectively earn $14 million and even if Miggy goes to $11 million, (speculation was it was $10 million last week) I find it hard to believe Willis earns an almost 50% increase even in these inflated days after his performance this season. I agree. Who would he use for comparables when asking for $10 million? I don't think there are any pitchers with his service time and with ERAs in the 5.00 range making $10 million. I think he'll end up between $6 million and $7 million.

I think Kendall would be an exellent hitter, a catalyst with the marlins + he provides leadership, something that Barrett would fail to provide Kendall hasn't really hit well the past 3 or so years and he allowed about 120 SB this year.

Michael Barret would be excellent. If you're talking about the Barret of the .281 OBP who can't throw anyone out and who defensively flat out blows then he would be horrible... is there another Michael Barret? I guess he would be "better" than Jason Kendall but that's not saying much. Hey what have you done for me lately dude. Maybe you missed how Barret has been really banged up for about a full calender year now, and had a .850ish cumulative OPS 2004-2006. Check the home/away, it wasn't wrigley either. Oh, and here's some fun facts for you to chew on. This is a cumulative list of the FA options per the article. Argue me which player to take based on PERFORMANCE versus SALARY. 2007 CS% numbers for all catchers mentioned Olivo .329 Barret .163 Kendall .153 Lo Duca .234 Yorvit .197 Castro .100 So Olivo is OK, and everyone else sucks. No one here is outrageously better or worse than anyone else defensively where there is going to be a lasting impact onto a team's run production. Let's not make an intangible argument of "calling games" here either, although I'm sure you will puntolize this argument to the best of your ability. 2007 OPS / Career OPS Olivo .667 / .680 Barret .653 / .747 Kendall .610 / .758 Lo Duca .689 / .752 Yorvit .699 / .705 Castro .887 / .723 Olivo and Yorvit offer you nothing. Kendall and Lo Duca are older now, so their career isn't as applicable. They are the middle hitters here, with LoDuca relying completely on contact rates and Kendall on his ability to draw walks. Either would probably be effective in a High .600/Low .700 kind of way, but absolutely offers you no CEILING potential. Which leaves us, Castro who overachieved in spare time in 2007, or Barret who underachieved greatly in 2007. Both of these are in the prime years of their career and have shown they can hit baseballs. So a quick recap. Olivo can throw out runners, no one is a defensive wizard, and Barret and Castro are the only ones that offer any sort of realistic hitting potential of the group. Expected 2008 commitment Lo Duca $10-12 million, 2 years Everyone else, way less money, probably a one year + option commitment, and would love the opportunity to be a # 1 catcher So where does this leave us. First, LoDuca is out. He displays no advantages over anyone (please no intangiscale. please god!), and is literally twice as expensive. Yorvit and Olivo are out, because who cares. They are just w/e. So we have Kendall, Barret, and Castro. Since you've already detailed Kendall < Barret, Do you want Michael Barret, or Ramon Castro. There is nothing else. My answer is, I'll take the guy who has started before, has been injured, and has shown he can play, not the guy who has already been run out of this organization once, will probably have a larger market in FA because of a "breakthrough" year, and has never started in his life. So coming full circle and qualifying this further so you get it, among the options presented, Michael Barret would be excellent. He is the best combination of performance and salary of this group. Your analysis ignores passed balls. The only catcher who allowed more passed balls per inning than Barret is Olivo and it was barely at that.. Olivo allowed one passed ball every 62 innings while Barret allowed one every 64 innings. I think I'll pass on the .281 OBP guy who can't catch the ball and who can't throw anyone out and who is a**hole to boot. I don't mind a**holes who can play but it's retarded to add an a**hole who can't play and more so when the a**hole is a catcher and the team has a young pitching staff.

Michael Barret would be excellent. If you're talking about the Barret of the .281 OBP who can't throw anyone out and who defensively flat out blows then he would be horrible... is there another Michael Barret? I guess he would be "better" than Jason Kendall but that's not saying much.

I can't believe the Rockies will change the lineup they've used during the hot streak because of Willy Taveras. Taveras will go back to CF and will leadoff with Spilborgh to the bench, Matsui will hit 2nd and Tulowitzki will hit 7th.

What I like is how ESPN is no longer guaranteed the "top" MLB broadcast talent that FOX doesn't use. Before ESPN would horde anyone they could, but now TBS has 4 crews and ESPN Radio has 4 crews. Stockton works on FOX MLB telecasts too as their 6th string voice when the NFL on FOX doesn't need him to call a football game, but Buck, Albert, and Vasgersian are calling football. So I'm used to the idea of him calling baseball games because he's called several Marlins games on FOX over the last few years. Ted Robinson has done pretty well, I feel, with his call considering he hasn't done baseball in over 10 years. Ted Robinson was the Mets play-by-play guy until a year or two ago.

which is what we need to be again No, we need to be exactly what we have on offense (add a CF) and have our rotation pitch like last season. We'd win 100. if we dont get better defensive play and more speed in general on the team, then winning 100 games is a pipe dream the drays are closer to Hitting + Pitching = title. There have been outstanding defensive teams that have won recently, but the Red Sox were 22nd in MLB, and the Yankees (98-00) and Cardinals (06) were middle of the pack. Fielding and winning have no correlation. I suppose it depends on how one judges team defense. If you go based on Fieldign % the you're correct but if you based on DER (the percentage of balls in play turned into outs) then you're incorrect. I think DER is about 54897 times more important than Fielding %. Below is how the teams you mentioned ranked in DER. They were all better than average and some of them were very good. '06 cards - 6th in the NL '04 Red sox - 4th in the AL '00 Yankees - 4th in the AL '99 Yankees - 3rd in the AL '98 Yankees - 1st in the AL

Pitching for sure but defense also costs us dearly. We allowed 79 more earned runs than the league average and allowed 38 more unearned runs than the league average. Of course on top of that we allowed many runs that ended up as "earned" but were allowed due to poor defensive plays that were not classified as errors. Defense matters.

If a stadium deal were to be locked up, is there any chance it can be before Cabreras contract ends in 08? He wont be a free agent until after the '09 season.

Amazing how low the collective baseball IQ is here. Simply amazing. I agree. OPS+ by Age: =========== 21 - Pujols 158 / Cabrera 130 22 - Pujols 155 / Cabrera 151 23 - Pujols 189 / Cabrera 159 24 - Pujols 175 / Cabrera 152 Cabrera is great. Pujols is in a different league.

Yea, this isn't fantasy baseball d00d. You have to take Cabrera. I can't even imagine his slugging when he turns 26/27. He might flick 50 homeruns just cause he's bored. Wright is gonna have his low/mid .900 OPS (I mean, effing awesome, especially with the D) for years, but Cabrera is the natural. The only bat you can compare him to is Pujols. I do agree it would be nice if his defense was a bit more puntolicious though. I think he'll learn with age (and the Marlins grilling Cabrera and Hanley all offseason). You can't compare Cabrera to Pujols. Pujols is in a different league.

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Wright just had a better year than Cabrera. They're four months apart age wise. Miguel has better career numbers and better numbers the last 3 years but the gap is not that far apart. Wright if better defensively. Cabrera is constantly out of shape. Cabrera would get more but not that much more.

Walk-off triple play. Bases loaded. Bottom 9. No outs. Tie game. Line drive to and outfielder. Runners on 1st and 2nd are caught off base to complete the triple play. Only way to to nullify the run is if you appeal and the runner on 3rd left early (in theory a quadruple play). If the runner didn't leave early he scores and the game is over. This HAS happened before. Atleast once in the majors and once in Cuban baseball. This is really stupid. When the runner scores the game is over so there's no triple play or if there is a triple play then the runner didn't score and the game is not over. Stupid.

Uggla had a disappointing season. I would grade him out to about a C-. His regressed in his defensive play to the point where he may well be the worst defensive 2B in MLB baseball and his situational hitting also regressed to the point where it became a weakness in his game. I love HRs even at the expense of added Ks but Uggla became too HR happy even in situations when all that was needed was a base hit. I forget who it was that said that Miguel had a different swing for every occasion or something like that. Well Uggla has the same swing for every occasion. Looking at his stats he was 11th in OPS among 20 qualifying 2B in OPS and he was last among 12 qualifying 2B in Revised Zone Rating. I wouldn't mind a defensive upgrade at 2B even if we give up some offense. I agree with your first assesment about him being HR happy and really being horrible for us when it came to RISP. His OBP was a little bit worse than league average from a 2b but also had the fifth best SLG, and takes a high amount of pitchers per pa. I've said before that I would much perfer a OBP guy over a SLG guy and this doesn't change here, but Uggla is making league minimum, and that's the main thing that he has going for him. He's an above average 2B making the least amount possible. Find a 2B making the minimum that's better than him to replace him with, and then an arguement can start to be made about replacing Uggla. As far as fielding goes, you can't just look at RZR, you have to look at OOZ. RZR doesn't count any balls out of the zone, RZR and OOZ were made to go hand in hand. Yes he had the worst RZR but he also had the third best range. And considering he had a good RZR last year, I wouldn't exactly be too worried about him deffensively. I looked at the 25 2B with the most innings played and compared Uggla's RZR and OOZ to the average to see it translated to plays made. This is what I found: Uggla made 8.6 more OOZ plays than what the average guy would have made (Uggla made a play OOZ every 25.1 innings compared to the 29.1 average). Uggla made 18.3 fewer plays in his Zone than waht the average guy would have made (Uggla's RZR was .775 compared to the .830 average). Looking at it like this it means he made 9.7 fewer plays than what the average guy would have made. I guess maybe he's not as bad as I thought with the glove but still below average I'll move his overall grade from a C- to a C+.

I feel it's self-explanatory...Trading the franchise (Cabrera) just plain hurts the franchise It really depends on what type of players you get back and what you do with the money that you would have to pay him. In '09 he'll make close to $20 million. As good as he is he will not outferporm that kind of salary and small payroll teams need players to outperform their salaries. I think he'll be here in '08 but in '09 I think he's gone for sure.

Uggla is not that great of a defender and his .245 or so avg is not acceptable for a ML 2nd baseman even with his HR and RBI.... OMG. OMG. OMG. OMG. OMG. He's the 3rd or 4th best player on the team. Who cares if he has a .250 batting average if he walks 70 times a year and his 30 home runs. Are you kidding me? He's also the most consistently solid defensive player on the team. I care, because his situational hitting was atrocious. And actually, I'd put Uggla 5th on the team, behind Cabs, Hanley, Hermida and Willingham. But come on, Bob. You watched the games this season. Just as you can't look solely at batting average to determine a player's value, neither can you look at just homers and RBI. If that were the case, Braves fans would be satisfied with Andruw Jones' season. I like Uggs, but he needs to improve with runners on base and stop trying to pull every pitch. And that's up to the coaching to see that and work with him on it. And yes, a .246 average does mean something, particularly with all the wasted opportunities with runners in scoring position. Uggla had a disappointing season. I would grade him out to about a C-. His regressed in his defensive play to the point where he may well be the worst defensive 2B in MLB baseball and his situational hitting also regressed to the point where it became a weakness in his game. I love HRs even at the expense of added Ks but Uggla became too HR happy even in situations when all that was needed was a base hit. I forget who it was that said that Miguel had a different swing for every occasion or something like that. Well Uggla has the same swing for every occasion. Looking at his stats he was 11th in OPS among 20 qualifying 2B in OPS and he was last among 12 qualifying 2B in Revised Zone Rating. I wouldn't mind a defensive upgrade at 2B even if we give up some offense.