March 22, 200521 yr 2005 Season Outlook It's that time of year again. For those who do not know -- I prepare a season outlook prior to each season. Here is a link to the 2004 Outlook for those who would like to see it. In this outlook, I will break down and analyze the transactions made over the past few months. I also will give you my projections for the upcoming season. So without further adieu, let's begin. The Offseason This offseason has been a rather busy one. Several 2004 Marlins are gone, and there are several new faces in the 2005 version of the Marlins. Key Losses Player: Carl Pavano Transaction: Free Agent signed with New York Yankees When this offseason began, the 2004 ace of the Marlins' staff Carl Pavano began a tour of the United States dubbed by his agent "Carlapalooza". Right out of the gate, it became more and more apparent, Pavano would not be retained. Marlins fans held onto some hope until the ink was dry on the Yankee contract but common sense told us it was not to be. Pavano would eventually sign with the Yankees. In 2004, Carl Pavano went 18-8 with a 3.00 ERA. Those are very solid numbers, and established a record for wins by a Marlins starter. What does not show up in stats though is how many times Pavano acted as the Marlins losing streak stopper last season. On several occassions, Pavano was called upon to halt a bad streak or save a series from being swept away from the Marlins. On Friday, June 4th -- Pavano got the start as the Marlins were riding a 4 game losing streak and won. Only a few weeks later on June 22nd, Pavano got the start after 3 consecutive losses by the Marlins and won. In his following start on June 27th, the Marlins were on yet another 3 game losing streak and Pavano won. Player: Armando Benitez Transaction: Free Agent signed with San Francisco Giants Armando Benitez liked being a Marlin. The Marlins liked having Armando Benitez -- why wouldn't they after a 2004 campaign like he had. Unfortunately a contract to both side's liking could not be worked out and Benitez departed the Marlins and signed with the Giants. In 2004, Armando Benitez had 47 saves and a 1.29 ERA with 62 strikeouts in 69.2 IP. A completely dominant line for a closer and what turned out to be a great signing for the Marlins. It's no secret, the Marlins bullpen was a disaster often when trying to bridge a gap from starter to Benitez -- but when that bridge was there and McKeon handed the ball to Benitez there was confidence the job would get done and there would be chest bumps all around shortly after. Other Losses: Mike Mordecai, Josias Manzanillo, Billy Koch, Chad Fox, Tommy Phelps, David Weathers, Wil Cordero, Aaron Small Key Gains Player: Al Leiter Al Leiter brings a lot to the table for the 2005 Marlins rotation. A member of the 1997 championship team, Leiter returns after a 2004 season where he went 10-8 with a very respectable 3.21 E.R.A in 173.7 innings pitched. While Leiter's workload has diminished over the past 3 seasons -- his E.RA. has remained in the 3's and he probably would've won more games over the past few seasons on a contender. He is a teacher of the game and an asset to a young pitching staff with questions. Player: Carlos Delgado Signing Carlos Delgado was quite possibly the biggest thing to happen to the Marlins franchise beyond the 2 World Championships. Delgado has 30 or more Homeruns in 8 straight seasons and was 1 R.B.I off having 100 or more R.B.I's in 8 straight seasons as well. Putting Delgado in the lineup should give the Marlins a much needed boost. Not only will he produce on his own but he will increase Miguel Cabrera's numbers by protecting him in a big way. Other Gains: Todd Jones, John Reidling, Jim Mecir, Antonio Alfonseca Comparing Opening Day Lineups 2004 Opening Day Lineup Juan Pierre CF Luis Castillo 2B Miguel Cabrera RF Mike Lowell 3B Jeff Conine LF Hee Seop Choi 1B Ramon Castro C Alex Gonzalez SS Josh Beckett P Projected 2005 Opening Day Lineup Juan Pierre CF Luis Castillo 2B Miguel Cabrera LF Carlos Delgado 1B Mike Lowell 3B Paul Lo Duca C Juan Encarnacion RF Alex Gonzalez SS Josh Beckett P My Predictions Well, in 2003 I fared better with my predictions than I did in 2004 when I predicted a repeat and the Marlins failed to even make the playoffs. Let's see what I can do in 2005. The 5th Starter spot is a big question mark for the Marlins. Ismael Valdez is a good pitcher when pitching at home but is a huge liability when starting on the road (based on 2004 stats). If Valdez costs the Marlins some games I will not be surprised at all if a pitcher is called up from Albuquerque -- be it Brian Moehler, Justin Wayne, Frank Castillo, or anyone else putting up solid numbers at the time. Valdez's spot is very much volatile in my opinion and I think we will see a change sometime this season as long as there is a better choice down in AAA. In the bullpen, Guillermo Mota is a question mark as he closes for a full season for the first time in his career. He is the backend of a bullpen that on paper is a lot more solid than the 2004 version but raises my eyebrow when anaylzing it. Jim Mecir has struggled this spring thus far, as has John Reidling. Of course it is only Spring Training but it does make me concerned anyway. I expect Mota to do a solid job and keep his closer's job for the entire year. Alfonseca will settle in nicely as the top setup man and I expect at least 1 reliever will be picked up at the trade deadline. As for the lineup -- there will be cold streaks, and hot sttreaks of course but the season is a marathon and we will definetly see more runs scored in 2005 than we saw in 2004. With the additions of Lo Duca and Delgado for a full season -- this lineup will put up runs and take pressure off our starting pitchers. I am expecting we will see some very solid numbers from the heart of the lineup. I am expecting we will see Encarnacion traded or benched quickly into the season in favor of Conine. Starting pitching is what will be the deciding factor on how much the Marlins win this season. Can the arms hold up? Can the pitchers stay consistent? Can they all pitch like they are capable of? Yes, they can. Look for Beckett and Burnett to try and one-up the other all season long as Burnett plays for a contract and Beckett tries to remain the best pitcher on staff for ego purposes. With Leiter to break the dynamic duo up -- and bring consistency the top 3 spots in the rotation should produce around 40-45 wins combined. Dontrelle should be a little more consistent with a smoother motion and post 12-15 wins himself. As for Valdez, if the Marlins can try and use him sparingly on the road by using a 4-man rotation when off-days are bunched up -- he too can put up 10-12 wins. I'm going to predict a 98-64 record for the Marlins in 2005. A National League East division title for the first time in franchise history and I'm going to stop my prediction there. I don't want to predict what will happen in the postseason - - I'll just say we WILL be there this season. The Marlins will not have the Cy Young winner, or the MVP or Rookie of the Year. All Stars will be Delgado, Beckett, Burnett, Cabrera. Gold gloves to Gonzalez, and Castillo. Thanks for reading everyone. Go Marlins!
March 22, 200521 yr Look for Beckett and Burnett to try and one-up the other all season long as Burnett plays for a contract and Beckett tries to remain the best pitcher on staff for ego purposes. How true that is. Very nice, Admin.
March 22, 200521 yr I think the win total is a little high, but everything else is acheivable. I think we could see one of the greatest improvements from Burnett, he'll be pitching for a BIG contract like Pavs did last year. The closer job also is a concern for me but I think the relievers the Marlins have make it less of a concern than it was last year. Finally as we all know that whatever 25 players start the season will not be the same 25 at the end the season as the Fish have their "ace in the hole" in Beinfest. If there is a closer or a 5th starter out there I believe he'll get it for them.
March 22, 200521 yr Great job, Admin I think you are right on about the pitching--40 to 45 wins for our top three. However, I do expect either Burnett or Beckett to vie for the Cy Young. D-Train is capable of 14-15 wins easily (as long as he can be consistent). Valdez should remain on the team. He is a terrific 5th starter, and I doubt anyone from triple A can do as well as him. Then again, I would've thought the same about D-Train two years ago One small critique of the 'losses'--I believe Mike Mordecai is still in the organization, and coaching on one of our minor league teams (?). I remember the mention of a possible return for Mordy later in the season if we make a push (?). In fact, I know that was a possibility up until January. He may have been let go or signed elsewhere without my knowledge, though 98 wins would be great, but it's not going to happen. We are in the toughest division in the MLB...92 or 93 wins should do it, and I think that's what we'll get
March 23, 200521 yr Losing Pavs and Benitez is huge, but the addition of Leiter and a deeper bullpen (while also having Mota, and HOPEFULLY Beckett and Burnett for a full year) should more than balance it all out. The big difference will be on offense. LoDuca for the whole season (replacing Redmond and Castro... ugh) + Delgado (replacing Choi) = BIG improvement. Also considering that more of our players are expected to improve (Cabrera, Beckett, Burnett) and remain consistent (Pierre, Castillo, Lowell) than fade (Leiter and perhaps LoDuca), I think it safe to say we'll win about 10-12 more games than last year. That'd put us at about the 93-95 win range. Not far from what Admin said, but also not quite there. In short: I think we win 94 and that is if most (if not all) of the pieces end up together nice and neatly. To get closer to 100 wins would take a truly special season and is nearly impossible to predict, except for teams like the Yankees or BoSox or this year's Cards, or the Braves of old.
March 23, 200521 yr Nice synopsis. I believe Mota will handle the closer role quite well. Beckett looks like his is prepared to have a breakout season....let's see if he can stay healthy.
March 23, 200521 yr Barring significant injuries, I think we'll get to 94-98 wins. The two X factors this season: whether Josh and AJ can stay healthy and how well Cabrera will do in the 3 hole. If Josh and AJ can stay healthy and Cabrera can thrive in the 3 hole (as opposed to hit the sophomore slump - since this is his second full year, not his third), then this team will be the best in the NL.
March 23, 200521 yr Barring significant injuries, I think we'll get to 94-98 wins. The two X factors this season: whether Josh and AJ can stay healthy and how well Cabrera will do in the 3 hole. If Josh and AJ can stay healthy and Cabrera can thrive in the 3 hole (as opposed to hit the sophomore slump - since this is his second full year, not his third), then this team will be the best in the NL. 718544[/snapback] Plus now that barry bonds will miss atleast half the season (it appears) I would say that if all goes well we should be right up there as the best in the NL. St Louis will have something to say about that however
March 23, 200521 yr Author 98 wins would be great, but it's not going to happen. We are in the toughest division in the MLB...92 or 93 wins should do it, and I think that's what we'll get 718338[/snapback] I just don't think getting 92 or 93 will win the East. Even if it is tough, I feel we will need more than that. 92 or 93 would probably grab the Wild-Card though.
March 26, 200521 yr Well I didn't want this to die on the IGN boards (although it has gotten 14 replies already :shifty ), so I put it in the Marlins thread I made. Hopefully when the season ends, we can all look at and say that you were right on most accounts. :thumbup Btw, it really sucks being one of the only Marlins fans on that board to post... :glare When you have 20 Braves, Phillies and Mets fans posting (and only a few guys on our side), it makes things a little difficult to have your voice heard.
March 26, 200521 yr I'm trying to post a little more there again so you have a partner now. 721056[/snapback] Nice! And you remember what happend a few years ago when it was really only us two Marlins on that board, what the team went on to do... :whistle And Fritz post there from time to time, so it's not exactly like we are alone.
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.