Posted March 23, 200520 yr Welcome to my overview of the most competitive division in baseball, the National League East. I?ll be doing a different analysis each day leading up to an overview of all five teams and a prediction on the final day. Up first on the tab and on today?s schedule is the lineup of the five NL East foes. We?ll go in alphabetical order team-wise as to not show any bias towards any particular team. Atlanta Braves- When does the deal with the devil expire? 2004 Stats- .270/.343/.434, 178 HR, 767 RBI, 1158 K, 587 BB, 86 SB (32 CS) Additions- Brian Jordan (FA), Raul Mondesi (FA) Losses- J.D. Drew (FA- Los Angeles), Charles Thomas (Traded- Oakland) This lineup hasn?t had a great deal of change, as 6 of the 8 regulars last season will be back in there for the Bravos this season. However, missing will be last season?s cleanup hitter and one of their most promising bats. J.D Drew last year hit .305, provided a team leading 31 homers, the second most RBIs on the team with 93, team leading OBP and SLG with .436 and .569 respectively, and also contributed 12 Stolen Bases, 118 walks (as opposed to only 116 strikeouts), and 295 Total Bases, easily best in the lineup. Replacing him? Raul Mondesi, who in his last full season (2003) hit .272/.343/.484 with 24 HR and 71 RBIs. Not bad, but the majority of this was with the infinite protection of the New York Yankee lineup. He also isn?t exactly in the prime of his career anymore ? twilight would be a more accurate term. Left Field was left with a rather big hole as well, as the Braves have to replace their farmhand Charles Thomas. Thomas wasn?t the most unstoppable force on offense, but in half a season of contribution he gave the tomahawks .288/.368/.445 with 7 homers, 105 Total Bases, and not appearing in the stat book is the fact that on some nights Thomas was the only source of offense for the Braves. Taking his place is Brian Jordan, who in roughly the same amount of time posted an impressive .222/.275/.363 with 5 homers nothing at all else worth noting. The rest of the lineup, however, is in tact. Though they hit just the tenth most homers in the NL at 178, they were 5th in both average and RBIs. A big chunk of those runs were removed with the parting of Drew and Thomas, but Mondesi and Jordan should be able to cover at least two thirds of that production. Chipper Jones had a down year last season, not being a run producer at all until the final two months of the season. Andruw Jones continued his downward spiral and his inability to hit a curveball, but very quietly put up formidable stats. Johnny Estrada started proving the Braves right in the Kevin Millwood trade, hitting over .300 and driving in almost 80 runs a solid year. The keys to this offense are going to be Marcus Giles and Adam LaRoche. If Giles can stay off the disabled list, that?s a huge boost to a lineup that could do absolutely nothing while he was injured. Adam LaRoche had a solid year last season, but he?s going to have to start hitting like the prodigy the Atlanta fans thought he was and not like a .278 13 HR 45 RBI first baseman he was last season. With two of the best hitting First Baseman in the league playing the Braves 19 times a season and with the Marlins, Phillies, and Mets all posting formidable lineups, LaRoche is going to have to step it up to be able to keep Atlanta on top for a 14th straight season. Projected Lineup: SS Rafael Furcal 2B Marcus Giles 3B Chipper Jones RF Raul Mondesi CF Andruw Jones C Johnny Estrada LF Brian Jordan 1B Adam LaRoche Grade: B/B+ Florida Marlins- The lets swing at everything no matter what offense 2004 Stats: .264/.329/.406, 148 HR, 677 RBI, 968 K, 499 BB, 96 SB (43 CS) Additions: Carlos Delgado (FA) Subtractions: Jeff Conine (Bench) The Marlins subtracted absolutely no one from the lineup they put on the field in their playoff push last season. Instead, they pushed one of their starters from last year to the bench by bringing in the best 1B on the market, Carlos Delgado. You?ve heard all about what he brings to this team ? their first big lefty presence, their only power lefty outside of Cliff Floyd, a legit first baseman, blah blah blah. However, the most important thing he brings to this team is what stance he wants to take in the on deck circle as he watches Miguel Cabrera bat, because that will be his impact. Thanks to the addition, Cabrera should not only have his natural progression from last season as he gains an extra year of age and experience, but now opposing pitchers have to actually pitch to him the entire season instead of just the first half. The top 3 here is what Marlin fans and opposing pitchers have become used to seeing ? two of the best leadoff men in the game and arguably the best hitter whose hair isn?t receding or completely gone in the majors. Juan Pierre had a career year in 2003, topped it in 2004, and now has been working on his patience to maybe earn a batting title. If he can improve on his .326 average and .374 OBP, and continue to be one of the ten hardest men to strike out in baseball, it?s going to be a pitfall into a different kind of deathtrap from 1-6. This is easily the most balanced lineup in the division, with speed and contact 1-2, pure hitting ability and power at 3, pure power plus run scoring producing from the left side at 4, run scoring machine at 5 from the right side, and a contact machine with some power at 6. The two biggest questions in this lineup outside of health are can the team get anything from the 7th and 8th hitters, and how will it perform in the second half of the season. Two of the better hitters in this lineup, Mike Lowell and Paul LoDuca, are notorious first half hitters and have struggled to perform even close to their early levels after the all start break. If the Marlins can get patience out of Juan Encarnacion and Alex Gonzalez, and at least some steady production out of Lowell and LoDuca, there won?t be a single easy out in this lineup (especially days when the sweet swinging Dontrelle Willis is on the mound). Or maybe they just need to mash the ball so much in the first half that 5-8 aren?t needed from July to September. Projected Lineup: CF Juan Pierre 2B Luis Castillo LF Miguel Cabrera 1B Carlos Delgado 3B Mike Lowell C Paul LoDuca RF Juan Encarnacion SS Alex Gonzalez Grade: A-/A New York Mets- The Best Offense Money Could Buy - Sorta 2004 Stats: .249/.317/.409, 185 HR, 658 RBI, 1159 K, 512 BB, 107 SB (23 CS) Additions: Carlos Beltran (FA), Full Season of David Wright, Doug Mientkiewicz (Trade- Boston) Subtractions: Richard Hidalgo (FA), Jason Phillips (Trade- Los Angeles) Easily the most improved lineup in the division and maybe all of baseball, the New York Mets spared no expense to try and bring the NL East to a four horse race instead of a three team stretch run. Now will this new offense produce like the money says they will? That?s a big question, but you can?t fault New York for trying. They went out and added .267/.367/.548, 38 HR, 104 RBI, and 42 SB in Carlos Beltran to fill the three spot in the order. They brought in Doug Mientkiewicz, who though he had an off season last year is still a .272/.363/.404 career hitter and adds a lefty dimension to the lineup. Though he won?t compete with Thome and Delgado?s likely astronomical numbers from the position, he should do enough lower in the lineup to add much needed runs to this team?s boxscores. And boy do they need it ? last season they finished bottom 5 in every major offensive category except homers and stolen bases. Like it is with any club, health is going to be a major question for this lineup. Do Jose Reyes and Kaz Matsui have 150 games in them? Can David Wright live up to his billing and start climbing up to Miguel Cabrera?s status and ability? Is Mike Piazza going to be able to play more than 120 games at catcher? Will Mientkiewicz be able to bounce back, or was last year the start of a trend? Will Carlos Beltran be able to carry the offense by himself at times? Will Cliff Floyd be healthy the entire season? Will Mike Cameron start hitting again? The lineup is surrounded by questions at every slot, and more than half will have to be answered in the Mets? favor for them to be able to remain competitive. But, on paper, this lineup can compete with the top teams in the division as far as putting runs on the board is concerned. Projected Lineup: SS Jose Reyes 2B Kaz Matsui CF Carlos Beltran C Mike Piazza LF Cliff Floyd 3B David Wright RF Mike Cameron 1B Doug Mientkiewicz Grade: B+/A- Philadelphia Phillies- We?re better than you, AND we play in a hitter?s park. 2004 Stats: .267/.345/.443, 215 HR, 802 RBI, 1133 K, 645 BB, 100 SB (27 CS) Additions: Kenny Lofton (Trade- New York), Full Season of Chase Utley (well, if they are smart ? meaning no guarantees) Subtractions: Marlon Byrd (Bench), Placido Polanco (Bench ? again, if they are smart) This team had one turn over on offense this offseason, and for good reasons ? they were easily the best offense in the division, they didn?t exactly have career years from anyone, and their former manager said their hitter?s park should be even more hitter friendly this summer with the normal Philadelphia weather that we didn?t see in 2004. The only change of note is the benching of once heavily thought of Marlon Byrd, who fell out of grace with the fans and team, and the installing of veteran speedster Kenny Lofton in his spot. Lofton adds some get-up at the top of the lineup, possibly to compete with the speed-heavy tops of the Marlins and Braves. Other than that, it?s business as usual for the Phillies ? hit the ball very, very far and hope the pitcher?s don?t let the ball get hit farther than you are sending it. The top of the order is now a lot faster, as Lofton joins Jimmy Rollins in trying to set the table for the mashers in the middle of the lineup. If Rollins can up his OBP to .375 or higher, the sky is the limit for how many runs he is going to score. Lofton just needs to hit over .280 and/or get on base at .350+ and they will give the Pierre/Castillo tandem a run for best leadoff tandem in the game. Those two get to set the table for the most underrated hitter in baseball, Bobby Abreu, and the very not-underrated Jim Thome. Abreu very quietly (well, to everyone except Marlin fans) had a ridiculous year, going .301/.428/.544 with 30 HR, 105 RBIs, 312 Total Bases and 40 Stolen Bases. Why this man doesn?t get more attention is honestly beyond me, he?s one of the top ten hitters in the league year in and year out. Hitting behind him is the man no team can hide, Jim Thome. If Bobby Abreu contributes his usual 30 homers and the summer is hot in Philly, Thome could be looking at 45+ homers from the cleanup spot. Getting almost 80 homers just between 3 and 4 is just plain sick. Once you pass there start the question marks. Is this the year Ex-Cane Pat ?The Bat? Burrell gets back on track? Or will he continue to not live up to his potential? Is Mike Lieberthal capable of producing like he used to, or will being an old catcher catch up to him (no pun intended)? Will the Phillies let sweet swinging Chase Utley play 130+ games, or will they keep letting hourglass face get playing time? Will David Bell ever stop sucking? There?s a few questions after Thome, however if managed properly and Burrell gives them last year but with a slightly higher average than his .257 atrocity, then this lineup is tops again in the division. Projected Lineup: SS Jimmy Rollins CF Kenny Lofton RF Bobby Abreu 1B Jim Thome LF Pat Burrell 2B Chase Utley 3B David Bell C Mike Lieberthal Grade: A/A+ Washington Nationals- Oh, by the way ? We?re still here 2004 Stats: .249/.313/.392, 151 HR, 605 RBI, 925 K, 496 BB, 109 SB (38 CS) Additions: Jose Guillen (Trade- Anaheim), Christian Guzman (FA), Vinny Castilla (FA) Subtractions: Juan Rivera (Trade- Anaheim), Tony Bautista (FA), Maicer Izturis (Trade- Anaheim) This team did about as much to its lineup as it possibly could this offseason ? and it still sucks. Don?t get me wrong, Jose Guillen is a great addition. Anytime you can add .294/.352/.497 with 27 HR and 104 RBI to a lineup, it is improved. The lineup also drastically improved with Vinny Castilla replacing Tony Bautista at third base. Even though Vinny is very passed his prime, Bautista was so horrendous he couldn?t even find a job on an American team, opting for Japan. Guzman should also be an offensive upgrade over Izturis at short, but mostly because the latter isn?t ready yet. But with all this adding, they are still left as the 5th best offense in the division. Talk about treading water. This offense does have some plus marks to it. Brad Wilkerson, Jose Vidro, and Nick Johnson can all get on base at a very solid pace. Wilkerson is a machine at getting on, Vidro is among the best second basemen in the league, and the Nats should definitely benefit from a full year of Johnson if he can keep it together this season. The 2-5 really isn?t bad at all, with Guzman being a very solid 2 hitter and Vidro a very good 3 hitter. Guillen can bring some pop, as can Wilkerson. But while 2-5 is good, the rest of the lineup isn?t even solid. I?m not sold at all on Endy Chavez who is slated to start in center, expect him to maybe get pulled soon out of the gate. Like I said earlier, Castilla is way past his prime and it will start to show in this lackluster offense. Brian Schneider really isn?t an offensive catcher by any stretch of the imagination, and Johnson is an injury liability. Is this the worst offense in the NL? No. However, is it in the class of the Phillies/Marlins, or even the Braves/Mets? No, it surely isn?t. And with some of the pitching staffs in this division, I wouldn?t be surprised for Washington?s new team to have big time troubles driving in runs. Projected Lineup: CF Endy Chavez SS Christian Guzman 2B Jose Vidro RF Jose Guillen LF Brad Wilkerson 3B Vinny Castilla 1B Nick Johnson C Brian Schneider Grade: C/C+ Overall Lineup Rankings: 1- Philadelphia Phillies (A+) 2- Florida Marlins (A) 3- New York Mets (B+) 4- Atlanta Braves (B+) 5- Washington Nationals (C+) Tomorrow: Starting Pitching Staffs
March 23, 200520 yr Fantastic. I wish I had the time to do something like this... Honestly, that's as good a preview as you'll find.
March 23, 200520 yr Fantastic. I wish I had the time to do something like this... Honestly, that's as good a preview as you'll find. 718941[/snapback] *Juanky comes out from under the table*
March 23, 200520 yr I doubt everyone in the Phillies and Mets lineups stays healthy. 718931[/snapback] I agree, but even my most optimistic self can't see Lowell and LoDuca magically not struggling in the second half. The Marlins might have the better O pre-All Star break, but it'll take Cabs and Delgado saving their best for last for them to stay ahead of the consistent Phillie lineup the entire season. If everything were equal, our lineup is better. But the presence of a severe pitcher's park and their hitter's park, along with the big questions 5-8 post Break, put the Phils ahead for now.
March 23, 200520 yr it isnt necessarily that Lowell struggles post break, its his power numbers that suffer
March 23, 200520 yr His average isn't the most stellar after the break either, he usually is up over or at .300 before the stoppage and then plummets into a huge slump after, then starts spraying hits around September to bring it back up to respectability.
March 23, 200520 yr Fantastic. I wish I had the time to do something like this... Honestly, that's as good a preview as you'll find. 718941[/snapback] *Juanky comes out from under the table* 718953[/snapback] haha. good job, juanky. you write with personality and sass.
March 23, 200520 yr Good going Juanky. However, IMO it will come down to pitching and injuries in NL east. If all is healthy, we go all the way. If not, all bets are off. I agree we have some solid competition.
March 23, 200520 yr why did the Phillies get an A? they lost their Ace Millwood, and they havent added no one but the Kenny Lofton.
March 23, 200520 yr why did the Phillies get an A? they lost their Ace Millwood, and they havent added no one but the Kenny Lofton. 718998[/snapback] Unless I missed something...this was just based on lineups.
March 23, 200520 yr why did the Phillies get an A? they lost their Ace Millwood, and they havent added no one but the Kenny Lofton. 718998[/snapback] He's grading offenses slick stuff.
March 23, 200520 yr why did the Phillies get an A? they lost their Ace Millwood, and they havent added no one but the Kenny Lofton. 718998[/snapback] This isn't the entire team, a different aspect of the game will be released everyday culimanting in an overview of each team and predictions for the division.
March 23, 200520 yr Great job Juanky, but are these previews "JUANKYMETRICS" friendly and approved? 719010[/snapback] Nope, they are straight from standard stats and my observations. No invented stats for these.
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