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A statistical analysis of the offense


rferry
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I entered all the splits into a spreadsheet and broke down each team's plate appearances broken down by baserunner situation and their skill at bringing them home. This is to measure each team's success in creating run-scoring chances AND their rate into converting those runs into outs.

 

Well... guess what? The Marlins rank near the top or above-average in most situations.

 

................ S I T U A T I O N ......................
............ Empt  1st  2nd  3rd  1&2  1&3  2&3  123 RISP
% of PA .... .544 .171 .093 .012 .082 .030 .020 .022 .275
NL Avg ..... .547 .176 .090 .010 .072 .030 .022 .026 .268
MLB Avg .... .548 .179 .088 .010 .071 .031 .022 .025 .265

R per PA ... .022 .052 .168 .457 .214 .449 .596 .857 .328
NL Avg ..... .027 .079 .163 .348 .255 .444 .463 .661 .311
MLB Avg .... .027 .082 .171 .361 .254 .464 .499 .690 .324

 

However I did notice that we are leading the entire majors in hitting with 2 outs and that we're not hitting well when leading off innings. So back to the web for base & out data. This team is so damn frustrating...

 

:confused

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By the way here are the numbers by out situation. (Hint: it's easier to bring that baserunner back home with the fewer outs you have.)

 

0 out: .264 avg (11th NL / 22nd MLB) .307 obp (14/26) .378 slg (16/29)

 

1 outs: .277 avg (3/8) .335 obp (4/6) .421 slg (8/15)

 

2 outs: .278 avg (1/2) .353 obp (1/1) .455 slg (1/2)

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The problem the offense is having is the lack of power. We are right in the bottom of the league when it comes to homeruns. Our "clutch" hitting numbers are pretty good compared to other teams, that is not the major problem.

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I'm pretty sure we've always been pretty close to the bottom in terms of homers, just based on the park we play in. I really wouldn't know where to look that up but I'm sure someone can. A big hit like a double or triple (as happened tonight) would do us wonders from time to time, though. :whistle

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The problem the offense is having is the lack of power. We are right in the bottom of the league when it comes to homeruns. Our "clutch" hitting numbers are pretty good compared to other teams, that is not the major problem.

825320[/snapback]

 

I'm pretty sure we've always been pretty close to the bottom in terms of homers, just based on the park we play in. I really wouldn't know where to look that up but I'm sure someone can. A big hit like a double or triple (as happened tonight) would do us wonders from time to time, though. :whistle

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Through 70 games we have hit 58 HRs. So we are on pace to hit 134 as a team this year. Last year we hit 148. This is taking into consideration the whole point of this past offseason was that we added power we didn't have and we are on pace to hit less homeruns than last year. 2003 we hit 157 HRs. Even in 2002 we hit 146. Power is this team's problem right now especially since that is what was suppose to be improved. And power is not something you can blame on Robinson you can not teach power.

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The problem the offense is having is the lack of power. We are right in the bottom of the league when it comes to homeruns. Our "clutch" hitting numbers are pretty good compared to other teams, that is not the major problem.

825320[/snapback]

 

I'm pretty sure we've always been pretty close to the bottom in terms of homers, just based on the park we play in. I really wouldn't know where to look that up but I'm sure someone can. A big hit like a double or triple (as happened tonight) would do us wonders from time to time, though. :whistle

825371[/snapback]

Through 70 games we have hit 58 HRs. So we are on pace to hit 134 as a team this year. Last year we hit 148. This is taking into consideration the whole point of this past offseason was that we added power we didn't have and we are on pace to hit less homeruns than last year. 2003 we hit 157 HRs. Even in 2002 we hit 146. Power is this team's problem right now especially since that is what was suppose to be improved. And power is not something you can blame on Robinson you can not teach power.

825373[/snapback]

 

You're right. Power is a problem. If Lowell would be on pace to hit 25 HRs this season (he averaged 28 the last 3), he'd have about 11 HRs now. Since he has only 3 that would be 8 more. So the team total at this point would be 66 which is on pace for about 153. In summation, I blame Lowell.

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You're right. Power is a problem. If Lowell would be on pace to hit 25 HRs this season (he averaged 28 the last 3), he'd have about 11 HRs now. Since he has only 3 that would be 8 more. So the team total at this point would be 66 which is on pace for about 153. In summation, I blame Lowell.

 

 

That's a no brainer! :mischief2

 

Also Gonzo has only 4.He's behind last year's pace also.He should have around 7 by now..so add 3 more to that total. Enc had 8 ribbies in the first week of the season with those two grannies..so he's had only 31 ribs since then.He needs to go. But, you're right...Lowell's massive slump has cost us at least 7 or 8 wins. We would be something like 43 - 27 if Lowell was hitting like he should/could.

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Runs are runs I dont care how they come in, yes I would love another power bat aka Adam Dunn stuck in our line up where Juan needs to be gone plays right now, question is we really can get a reliever and a starter or hitter, take your pick.

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A good stat in combination with the impresive 2-out numbers posted above is how teams fair with 2 outs and runners in scoring position.

 

.258 avg (4/11) .369 obp (3/6) .426 slg (2/6)

 

We can pretty much ignore On Base Percentage or Slugging Percentage as a walk does not advance the baserunner and only a single is needed to drive in the runner from 2B as he'll be running on contact with 2 outs.

 

So ignoring the blips in the sample as PBMarlin points out, this team has been starting rallies late and not bringing them home. Sounds like we need table setters (not to be confused with speedy leadoff men) more than RBI men. Although you do bring up an excellent point about power. Look at some of the situational slugging percentages.

 

I entered the new categories into the previous spreadsheet. Not sure how best to develop a run metric from the available stats, best I can think of is Runs + RBI - HR, but 1) that would not completly eliminate the double run problem, 2) that would overlap the situations, such as the batter coming around to score when the game was no longer in doubt or in an entirely different out situation and 3) would bear no resemblance to the other chart. So I left it out. All that's left is the percentage of plate appearances, or how often this situation has come up, to see how help/harm-ful they have been.

 

                  S I T U A T I O N
0out 1out 2out 2RSP Close&Late
% of PA      .314 .320 .315 .130 .134
NL Avg       .330 .318 .312 .125 .154
MLB Avg      .331 .319 .310 .123 .154

R per PA               .147
NL Avg                 .137
MLB Avg                .141

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Hmm.

 

Looking at these situational stats, anyone notice a trend of hitting behind runners but little in way of run production? The best example is having the major's highest average batting average with runners in scoring position, but only a RPPA score slightly above major league average. Is this caused by few singles into the gap? Bad baserunning? Slow baserunning? Cautious baserunning?

 

On the Bill Robinson front, it is interesting how we're one of the major's better teams hitting behind in the count and one of the worst hitting ahead in the count.

 

Ahead: .295 avg (13th NL / 24th MLB) .473 obp (9/11) .495 slg (10/19) 32% of the total plate appearances. The NL and MLB averages are both 35.1%

 

Behind: .231 avg (2/7) .228 obp (3/9) .320 slg (6/15) 32.8% of the total plate appearances. NL average is 30.5%, MLB average 30.3%.

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Some of the key situational stats broken down by player. %PPA is the percentage they come to plate in that situation of their total plate appearances. %TPA is the percentage they come to the plate of the team's plate appearances in that situation. Petty cool to see who has been asked to do what so far this year.

 

 

SITUATION Leading off Innings   Bases Empty           Runners Scoring Pos.  RISP with 2 outs      Close and Late       
Player    Avg/Obp/Slg %PPA %TPA Avg/Obp/Slg %PPA %TPA Avg/Obp/Slg %PPA %TPA Avg/Obp/Slg %PPA %TPA Avg/Obp/Slg %PPA %TPA
Cabrera   267/340/378 .169 .079 352/417/648 .470 .096 345/378/575 .331 .134 256/341/462 .149 .124 226/242/226 .084 .096
Castillo  265/321/347 .241 .084 314/421/381 .636 .096 316/435/526 .223 .067 222/364/222 .100 .062 250/357/333 .091 .077
Conine    222/263/278 .178 .030 222/286/267 .458 .034 217/406/391 .290 .042 286/474/357 .178 .054 222/417/333 .131 .054
Delgado   378/451/556 .171 .081 317/395/561 .525 .108 309/410/559 .271 .111 444/600/889 .084 .070 379/486/828 .080 .092
Easley    242/306/394 .276 .059 240/278/533 .590 .054 258/333/516 .261 .048 263/333/474 .157 .059 111/238/333 .134 .069
Encarnac  233/292/400 .240 .103 221/291/369 .494 .092 344/425/578 .262 .097 343/425/629 .148 .113 250/419/333 .085 .088
Gonzalez  203/217/305 .233 .095 279/315/397 .556 .098 323/416/462 .304 .106 214/405/286 .144 .104 186/205/256 .128 .127
LoDuca    321/377/393 .245 .097 281/338/359 .558 .096 317/378/417 .297 .101 333/444/467 .145 .101 357/438/464 .104 .100
Lowell    224/296/286 .208 .086 205/242/303 .492 .088 234/303/406 .296 .105 265/324/471 .142 .104 118/167/176 .112 .112
Pierre    270/300/348 .401 .192 242/269/317 .642 .134 190/279/328 .222 .091 132/233/289 .142 .121 111/158/194 .089 .104

TEAM      256/307/356    .235   263/327/401    .543   284/362/458    .274   261/369/426    .133   220/311/351    .097

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Nice analysis RFerry.

 

One thing that stands out is they all stink at close and late except LoDuca and Delgado.

 

The other is that they get behind in the count quite a bit more than MLB average. Could Robinson have them too tentative, watching good pitches go by early in the count?

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Could Robinson have them too tentative, watching good pitches go by early in the count?

825647[/snapback]

 

It's possible, but that doesn't necessarily drop a player's batting average. A perfect example is Luis Castillo, who works the count every single time he goes up to bat.

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Could Robinson have them too tentative, watching good pitches go by early in the count?

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The numbers do suggest BillRob is having them being a bit more defensive and singles-minded with runners on and behind in the count.

 

From my observations, the entire coaching staff has been cautious and tentative in their strategy and game decisions.

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