August 4, 200322 yr This whole thread has been a hilarious read. Amateur statisticians lambasting the non-believers with poorly thought out SA is always good for a hoot. If you ask the wrong questions you'll surely come up with the wrong answers.
August 4, 200322 yr Hey Ramp...Is that Brantley, and if so what up with the Brantley 'tar? Are you thinking by posting a pic of a complete idiot next your posts it'll make you look smarter? Gotta love Jeff "Castillo is doing a wondeful job as the Marlins' leadoff hitter" Brantley.
August 4, 200322 yr he believes in us though...."we scare him" even if he thinks Castillo is our leadoff hitter
August 4, 200322 yr Pierre: 137 Hits + 41 BB = 178 Castillo: 132 Hits + 42 BB = 174 They have nearly the same amounts of hits and walk yet Luis has scored more runs. You are all forgeting one importan diffrence Luis has 6 homers and Pierre has 0. Thats six more runs right there.
August 4, 200322 yr Pierre: 137 Hits + 41 BB = 178 Castillo: 132 Hits + 42 BB = 174 They have nearly the same amounts of hits and walk yet Luis has scored more runs. You are all forgeting one importan diffrence Luis has 6 homers and Pierre has 0. Thats six more runs right there,and Luis has scored only one more run than Juan. So I think the reson Luis has one more rin than Juan are because of the homers.
August 4, 200322 yr Author I dont understand what your trying to get at here DownRodeo , are you asking why Castillo is scoring just as many runs with alot less SBs or are you just trying to justify that Pierre's SBs are not that important? My point--which I thought the subject of this topic made fairly clear--was to determine how valuable Pierre's steals are to the team (specifically, the team's run production) it is clear to say that SBs have nothing to do with scoring in runs when the Batters arent moving runners home. 100% correct. Except one of the biggest arguments in favor of Pierre's steals is that they "ignite the offense." If his steals truly ignite the offense, then he should be scoring runs at a rate significantly higher than guys like Castillo. Base stealing plays a huge part in a pitchers mind (I know first hand) being a former college pitcher , thus throwing off the pitchers game allowing for Castillo to get on more . Castillo and Pierre have almost the same runs scored thats proves what im saying. Umm...how exactly does Castillo and Pierre having almost the same runs prove your theory? Your logic seems to be... A) Castillo bats behind Pierre B) Castillo scores a lot of runs, -so- C) Castillo must score a lot of runs because he bats behind Pierre. It's the same kind of faulty logic that posters here use to assume that Pierre ignites the offense. They think... A) Pierre steals a lot of bases B) The batters behind Pierre have hit well this season -so- C) The batters behind Pierre must be hitting well because Pierre steals a lot of bases. It's a logical jump and bad reasoning. oh sorry left this out , i would bet a kings ransome Castillo wouldnt have as many runs as he does now if it werent for JPs base stealing. Considering that Castillo's OBP this season is fairly similar to his career OBP, I don't see how you can just assume this. Isn't it possible Castillo is scoring a lot of runs because he has better hitters behind him? And because he has developed more power this season? and pitcher's throw from the stretch when JP is on base...... Pitchers throw from the stretch when most baserunners are on base. Could it just be the fact that Juan is batting two and three spots in front of main RBI men, while Luis is batting one and two spots in front? Sorry, just seems like an obvious advantage towards luis, It could just as easily be a disadvantage. With Castillo (a player who's good at getting on base as well as moving runners over) batting behind Pierre, Juan is often already at 2nd or 3rd by the time the big guns (Pudge and Lowell) come up the plate. Many people think stolen bases are overrated...But most people don't think about what's going through the pitcher's mind when Pierre's on 1st or 2nd base. Pierre being on base means more fastballs from the pitcher,the batter can expect this,which results in more hard hit balls. Yes, this has been mentioned ad nauseum. But if Pierre's baserunning truly affects the pitcher, then it would result in Pierre scoring runs at a significantly higher rate than players like Castillo, would it not? If he doesn't score runs more often than other players (who have been on base less than JP has), how can you blanketly say that his baserunning has a significant effect on the pitcher? They have nearly the same amounts of hits and walk yet Luis has scored more runs. You are all forgeting one importan diffrence Luis has 6 homers and Pierre has 0. Thats six more runs right there,and Luis has scored only one more run than Juan. So I think the reson Luis has one more rin than Juan are because of the homers. Which just goes to show that home runs are a lot more valuable than stolen bases. Pierre's 36 (36!) additional steals aren't enough to make up a difference of 6 home runs. This whole thread has been a hilarious read. Amateur statisticians lambasting the non-believers with poorly thought out SA is always good for a hoot. If you ask the wrong questions you'll surely come up with the wrong answers. Umm...exactly what evidence have you or anyone else given to refute my argument, other than "just watch the game and you can see how Pierre's baserunning psychologically affects the pitcher."
August 4, 200322 yr DR you have all the stats to back your claim up..... but, personally, i like it when he steals and in my mind it helps the team --even if he doesnt score every time or whatever else you need to say... but i appreciate the fact that you took the time to look this stuff up, most people speak their mind and then cant back anything up so i give you dap
August 4, 200322 yr My point--which I thought the subject of this topic made fairly clear--was to determine how valuable Pierre's steals are to the team (specifically, the team's run production) 100% correct. Except one of the biggest arguments in favor of Pierre's steals is that they "ignite the offense." If his steals truly ignite the offense, then he should be scoring runs at a rate significantly higher than guys like Castillo. Umm...how exactly does Castillo and Pierre having almost the same runs prove your theory? Your logic seems to be... A) Castillo bats behind Pierre B) Castillo scores a lot of runs, -so- C) Castillo must score a lot of runs because he bats behind Pierre. It's the same kind of faulty logic that posters here use to assume that Pierre ignites the offense. They think... A) Pierre steals a lot of bases B) The batters behind Pierre have hit well this season -so- C) The batters behind Pierre must be hitting well because Pierre steals a lot of bases. It's a logical jump and bad reasoning. Considering that Castillo's OBP this season is fairly similar to his career OBP, I don't see how you can just assume this. Isn't it possible Castillo is scoring a lot of runs because he has better hitters behind him? And because he has developed more power this season? Pitchers throw from the stretch when most baserunners are on base. Could it just be the fact that Juan is batting two and three spots in front of main RBI men, while Luis is batting one and two spots in front? Sorry, just seems like an obvious advantage towards luis, It could just as easily be a disadvantage. With Castillo (a player who's good at getting on base as well as moving runners over) batting behind Pierre, Juan is often already at 2nd or 3rd by the time the big guns (Pudge and Lowell) come up the plate. Many people think stolen bases are overrated...But most people don't think about what's going through the pitcher's mind when Pierre's on 1st or 2nd base. Pierre being on base means more fastballs from the pitcher,the batter can expect this,which results in more hard hit balls. Yes, this has been mentioned ad nauseum. But if Pierre's baserunning truly affects the pitcher, then it would result in Pierre scoring runs at a significantly higher rate than players like Castillo, would it not? If he doesn't score runs more often than other players (who have been on base less than JP has), how can you blanketly say that his baserunning has a significant effect on the pitcher? Which just goes to show that home runs are a lot more valuable than stolen bases. Pierre's 36 (36!) additional steals aren't enough to make up a difference of 6 home runs. Umm...exactly what evidence have you or anyone else given to refute my argument, other than "just watch the game and you can see how Pierre's baserunning psychologically affects the pitcher."Great case your making here, but at this point you are just arguing for the sake of arguing.
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