Posted August 3, 200321 yr Luis Castillo now has scored 72 runs this season, one more than Juan Pierre. This despite the fact that Juan Pierre has been on base more than Luis and has 36 more stolen bases than Luis. If Pierre's steals are really that valuable, how come he hasn't even scored as many times as Castillo, who has 36 less steals? (And for those who are quick to reply that the hitters haven't been driving Pierre in...doesn't that defeat the argument that Pierre's steals "ignite" the offense?)
August 3, 200321 yr Castillo has the better OBP and batting average of the two, so I would imagine he's on-base more than Juan.
August 3, 200321 yr Luiy scores more because when Juanpy gets on base, for some reason the inning tends to fizzle out later on. But when Luiy gets on base instead, the inning tends to keep going. Wierd but thats whats been happening. At we know Pierre is clutch
August 3, 200321 yr Author I think that Pierre's steals strike fear into the hearts of the opposing pitchers and keeps them off balance- they've constantly got to watch him on base- which takes their concentration off of the batter. Again...if this is true, why doesn't he score more often? If his steals force the pitcher to take his concentration off the batter, wouldn't the batter subsequently do better when JP is on the basepaths? Yet he has less runs than Castillo, who has 36 less steals. Castillo has the better OBP and batting average of the two, so I would imagine he's on-base more than Juan. Then you'd be wrong. Castillo gets on base at a higher rate. But Pierre has been on base more times than Castillo (since JP has more at-bats), and thus has had more chances to score runs. Luiy scores more because when Juanpy gets on base, for some reason the inning tends to fizzle out later on. But when Luiy gets on base instead, the inning tends to keep going. Wierd but thats whats been happening. So you're conceding the fact that Pierre's steals don't ignite the offense...
August 3, 200321 yr So you're conceding the fact that Pierre's steals don't ignite the offense... If you could go ahead and find where I personally said that, then you can go ahead and pin that comment on me. Until then, point your fire elsewhere. No human being in there right mind can ignite an offense everytime. But what Juan Pierre does do is break the ice for the rest of the lineup. Whether he gets to come around and score is irrelevant, because his hitting and getting on base first show the fish what can and can't happen in the game that day. Luiy used to do that, but he no longer leads off, so its now Juanpy's job.
August 3, 200321 yr Author so DR, are you saying you would rather him not steal? I am merely trying to determine the value of Pierre's steals. But since you mentioned it, he would be better if he stole less but with a much higher SB%. If you could go ahead and find where I personally said that, then you can go ahead and pin that comment on me. Until then, point your fire elsewhere. Oh brother. Let's look at your comment again... "Luiy scores more because when Juanpy gets on base, for some reason the inning tends to fizzle out later on. But when Luiy gets on base instead, the inning tends to keep going. Wierd but thats whats been happening." You clearly stated that when Juan Pierre gets on base, the inning tends to fizzle out later on. Is this not IMPLYING that Pierre's steals don't ignite the offense (but rather, causes it to "fizzle out")? Ya know...say what you mean, but mean what you say. Whether he gets to come around and score is irrelevant If you're trying to argue that Pierre's steals ignite the offense, then I think whether he scores is extremely relevant. After all, if he doesn't come around to score, then he hasn't really ignited the offense, has he?
August 3, 200321 yr Valid points DR, but have you calculated the # of times a JP steal has avoided a double play ball? Id be interested to know if that number exceeds the amount of times hes been CS. Steals have definitely lost their value in the past decade, but maybe they have some value still as DP avoiding moves...At least Jack has toned down the rate we steal which has given us more baserunners to work with.
August 3, 200321 yr Author Valid points DR, but have you calculated the # of times a JP steal has avoided a double play ball? Id be interested to know if that number exceeds the amount of times hes been CS. Unfortunately, that number would be almost impossible to determine. But you're right, his attempted steals have probably prevented a few double plays this season.  But again, let's remember everyone's famous argument, that Pierre's steals "ignite the offense." If Pierre's steals keep him out of double plays, then that increases his chance to score a run. Yet he still has scored less than Castillo, despite the fact that Luis has 36 less steals, AND despite the fact that Pierre stays out of double plays by stealing so often. Even acknowledging the fact that Pierre's baserunning keeps him out of double plays, he STILL scores less often than Castillo. So where exactly does this igniting of the offense show up?
August 3, 200321 yr Oh brother. Let's look at your comment again... "Luiy scores more because when Juanpy gets on base, for some reason the inning tends to fizzle out later on. But when Luiy gets on base instead, the inning tends to keep going. Wierd but thats whats been happening." You clearly stated that when Juan Pierre gets on base, the inning tends to fizzle out later on. Is this not IMPLYING that Pierre's steals don't ignite the offense (but rather, causes it to "fizzle out")? Ya know...say what you mean, but mean what you say. Lets play, find where I said the word steal!
August 3, 200321 yr Author Lets play, find where I said the word steal! There aren't enough *rolls eyes* to fit on the screen...Considering that the subject of this topic is "The value of Pierre's SBs," I thought it was a given that we were talking about the value of Pierre's steals. Alright...so you DON'T think Pierre's steals ignite the offense? Then why are you arguing with me?
August 3, 200321 yr Steals are definitely overrated, but the fact that JP has scored less could easily be attributed to random chance. He doesnt necessarily ignite the offense, but he gets on base at a nice clip and gives our hitters the opportunities to drive him in.
August 3, 200321 yr DwonRodeo, you can't downplay the fact that Pierre basically helps Castillo's OBP by maybe 10 points with the walks he helps him get. When you're a pitcher, and the most intimidating base stealer in the game is dancing off first, you can't argue that his mind is not on Pierre, because it is.
August 3, 200321 yr DownRodeo, if you think Pierre's stolen bases mean nothing, then you don't know baseball. Pierre helps put the defense and pitcher of the other team in a tense situation. This allows the batter at the plate for the Marlins to get an advantage since the concentration is not all on getting him out but making sure Pierre doesn't swipe a base.
August 3, 200321 yr Author DownRodeo, if you think Pierre's stolen bases mean nothing, then you don't know baseball. I don't recall ever saying or implying that Pierre's stolen bases mean nothing. This allows the batter at the plate for the Marlins to get an advantage since the concentration is not all on getting him out but making sure Pierre doesn't swipe a base. Sounds good in theory. But why does Luis Castillo score more often than Pierre? After all, don't the Marlin hitters have an "advantage" when Pierre is on base, because (as you mentioned) the pitcher is distracted?
August 4, 200321 yr But why does Luis Castillo score more often than Pierre? After all, don't the Marlin hitters have an "advantage" when Pierre is on base, because (as you mentioned) the pitcher is distracted? Does it matter who scores more? As long as they score...
August 4, 200321 yr Author Does it matter who scores more? As long as they score... C'mon Wild Card. In the context of this argument (how valuable are Pierre's steals), of course it matters how often Pierre scores. Can you try and give an actual answer to my question? Why does Castillo score more often than Pierre if Marlin hitters allegedly have an advantage with Pierre on base?
August 4, 200321 yr C'mon Wild Card. In the context of this argument (how valuable are Pierre's steals), of course it matters how often Pierre scores. Can you try and give an actual answer to my question? Why does Castillo score more often than Pierre if Marlin hitters allegedly have an advantage with Pierre on base? How many times has Pierre scored exactly? And how many times has Castillo scored? What are each of their batting averages and on base percentages?
August 4, 200321 yr C'mon Wild Card. In the context of this argument (how valuable are Pierre's steals), of course it matters how often Pierre scores. Can you try and give an actual answer to my question? Why does Castillo score more often than Pierre if Marlin hitters allegedly have an advantage with Pierre on base? How many times has Pierre scored exactly? And how many times has Castillo scored? What are each of their batting averages and on base percentages? Juan Pierre R: 71 AVG: .302 OBP: .365  Luis Castillo R: 72 AVG: .319 OBP: .382   Another interesting thing to mention... both Pierre and Castillo have 29 RBI's.
August 4, 200321 yr another interesting thing, both their first names have 4 letters :mischief2 coincidence? i think not
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