Of the ones on our own team, AJ Burnett, Alex Gonzalez, Todd Jones, and picking up Alfonseca's option. Re-signing Easley would me mighty nice as well.

 

But, as far as others, these are my guesses as to who our FO might target:

 

LF John Mabry: Very versatile and a solid LH bat off the bench. This is my guess if Niner retires, essentially since Mabry is a left-handed Conine. Still has pop in his bat, can play corner outfield and corner infield positions.

Probability of pursuing 1-10: 6 1/2

Probability of signing 1-10: 4

Estimated cost: $7-900 K/season

 

 

LF Carlos Lee: Although unlikely that the Brewers wont pick up his team option, if they for some reason don't I could see Mr. Beinfest being all over this guy, wooing him much the same way he did Delgado. Since it is likely that we will trade Mikey to free up money for AJ and Alex and that Cabs will move to 3rd, and since it is unlikely that we will be able to trade for an Adam Dunn type, we will have a huge void in LF that wont be able to be filled by an Aguila/Willingham platoon due mostly to their lack of at-bats at the MLB level(although it might ultimately have to be filled that way). So, if Lee is allowed to become a free agent, expect Florida to be in the top 3 or 4 teams vying for his services.

Probability of pursuing 1-10: 10(if his option is not picked up)

Probability of signing 1-10: 5

Estimated cost: $7-8 mil/season

 

SS Jose Vizcaino: To have another suitable(and cheap) middle infield backup so Easley is not stretched so thin. Although, Josh Wilson could be given such an opportunity.

Probability of pursuing 1-10: 6

Probability of signing 1-10: 7

Estimated cost: $850 K/season

 

RHSP Jeff Weaver: After underperforming in a large contract, Weaver could possibly be extended a $5-6 million/year deal by us to give us a solid 4 or 5 starter in case AJ walks. My guess is Mr. Beinfest will keep in contact with Weaver from the start of the signing period, waiting to see the final status of AJ, and if AJ signs away a bold move and Weaver will be signed with-in two days of AJ leaving. If AJ re-signs, Mr. Beinfest will say thankyou and tell him no offer is on the table.

Probability of pursuing 1-10: 10

Probability of signing 1-10: 8

Estimated cost: $5-6 million/season

 

LHP C.J. Nitowski: What can I say? We add crappy leftys to our pen every now and then. Villone is the exception.

Probability of pursuing 1-10: 4

Probability of signing 1-10: 6

Estimated cost: $400 K/season

 

RHP Kyle Farnsworth: Fire-baller out of the pen, bidding-war with Atlanta over a reliever might bring in a few new fans, or make casual fans pay more attention, and would help solidify the bullpen.

Probability of pursuing 1-10: 8

Probability of signing 1-10: 6

Estimated cost: $2.5 million/season

 

RHP Ryan Dempster: Has proved he can handle the closer role, and if Todd Jones retires or signs away, expect the former Marlin to be pursued about the role.

Probability of pursuing 1-10: 7

Probability of signing: 8

Estimated cost: $2.5-3.5 million/season

If AJ walks....I would actually like to go after Kip Wells ....I think he would do very well in our pitchers park and with our defense....I like him and he is still fairly young

If AJ walks....I would actually like to go after Kip Wells ....I think he would do very well in our pitchers park and with our defense....I like him and he is still fairly young

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He's not a free agent so we'd have to trade for him, and the Pirates as of late have been asking for alot. I agree with you though, it took Schmidt a change of scenery to put it all together. I'd want Ryan Voglesong as well.

Ridiculous to have this thread now.....and the names you want to add arent even any good...

Ridiculous to have this thread now.....and the names you want to add arent even any good...

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Yep they all suck...just saying that because I started the thread? Carlos Lee sucks? And since I said Mabry and Vizcaino would be defensive replacements, I dont really get the point of posting what you did. And Jeff Weaver would be good for what he is, a 4th or 5th starter.

Ridiculous to have this thread now.....and the names you want to add arent even any good...

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Yep they all suck...just saying that because I started the thread? Carlos Lee sucks? And since I said Mabry and Vizcaino would be defensive replacements, I dont really get the point of posting what you did. And Jeff Weaver would be good for what he is, a 4th or 5th starter.

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Jeff Weaver does not make this rotation next year...i'd rather have Olsen and Vargas in there....why are we signing this garbage when we need to sign AJ.....

lol... why waste your energy typing about CLee. Of course the Brewers pick up his option.

 

And if he was a FA, he'd sure as hell get more than 7-8 mil a year, especially with the total lack of FA OFs... that's for sure.

 

 

 

I like Weaver a lot but he'll be way to expensive... definitely more than 5 mil a year. Dude's a quality start machine and an innings eater. He's a vastly underrated pitcher and he'll end up getting around 8 mil a year.

 

I'd assume go for a guy like Brett Tomko to fill out the rotation.

 

 

 

Braves will re-sign Farnsworth long term.

 

Mabry, Nitkowski, Vizcaino? lol.. no need to worry about minimal impact players at this point.

Payroll is going to be tight next year.

Before we start wondering about what pieces we can add, we have to account for what pieces we have.

 

How likely will Burnett want to re-sign? Can we find someone to tke on Lowell's contract? Will Encarnacion stay or be let go? What about Gonzalez? Aside from Mota (arbitration-eligible) and Alfonseca (who won't be able to reach the playing requirements to exercise the second year) our bullpen are all on one-year contracts, how will that be pieced together? Are we going to offer arbitration to any of these players? What are the chances they accept? Can we afford it if they do? How will the negotiations with our own players affect the targetting of new players?

 

Also consider the working agreements Beinfest, Marlins personnel or ex-members of the staff have with different players, agents and other front offices. And the relationship among Marlins' employees when constructing next year's team and its future. How their time must be balanced. What risks can and can not be taken. The spur of the minute decisions that must be made.

 

Many questions, and with Hermida, Willingham, Olsen, Vargas and our minor league pitching depth there are some interesting answers to our future.

Dempster is the only guy Id think about signing on the list.

Payroll is going to be tight next year.

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Inside knowledge? Speculation (explain why you think so)?

 

Do you mean tight as in the overall payroll will be cut, not increased or that we have much of it tied up to a few players?

RHP Ryan Dempster: Has proved he can handle the closer role

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Tell that to the Cubs. They'd dump him in a heartbeat for a bonified closer.

Yeah our payroll this year could have alot of problems. If they get their hands on the new stadium alot of it goes away quickly. Otherwise I have a worry for us.

 

My keys are the following,

 

If you move Pierre you need to attach lowell to that contract to ditch his money. Which would free up a good 8 million a year salary. Plus pierre shot for cash.

 

We lose off the books Pudges cash and Hampton's cash so that is about 8 million together in money coming off of the books.

 

Miggy isnt in arbitration yet 400,000 only salary next year.

Willis wants a long term deal (he said he wants to be a marlin for career) 3 million (max for first time aribitration)

Beckett will be in arbitration again about 5 million

Vargas is gonna be getting paid minium 300,000

Olsen will be at minium 300,000

Delgado salary jumps up to about 13.5 million this year

Castillo is cheap for a GG 2nd at 4 million

Hermida will be the minium 300k

Lo Duca will be at 6.25 mill a year for the next three years still

Aguila will be at minium also 300k

Villone is at 2 million

bump is minium 300k

Messenger is minium 300k

Resop is minium 300k (future closer 2.00 era, over 9 k/9, and over 30 saves in AA, in a hitters league)

Treaner is vet minium for another year 300k

Willingham will be vet minium 300k

AA is signed one more year at 500k plus incentives

 

 

Gonzo will take between 4 to 8 mill to resign (furcal might be cheaper)

Juan Enc will get between 4-10 million somewhere (370 RISP, a 300 BA, 80 RBi, 25 HR, good arm and defense. He will be wanted elsewhere chitown or NYY good options)

AJ will get between 4 years 40 million to 4 years 50 million

Mota will get 3-5 million elsewhere (no intention to resign hates the club)

Jones has said he wants to come back, so I wouldnt be surprised for around 3 million he would

Mercir is going to retire

Connie would come back for the vet minium 1.2 million if asked for one more year

 

 

Here is what I think the marlins should do. We have a 68 million dollar payroll this year and there intention was to raise it next year.

 

Offer Gonzo 3 years 14 million dollar contract. He might get more elsewhere, if he does go. Then go heavy after Furcal (3 years 22 million). One of those two is a must for Andino needs at least 1 more year to get his bat ready for the majors. But, the kid has the defense already.

 

Trade Mikey and Pierre off to the Yankees. Both are beloved by George and Pierre would give them the CF/Lead off guy they would dream over. I would hate to see him go for both are team leaders but it would save us salary and also open up a chance for Cabrera at 3B (natural spot). you could get back a combination of minor leaguers and perhaps pick up Pavano and cash.

 

Cabrera moves to 3B next year, even though he leads the NL in outfield assists because his arm is a rocket. He isnt made for the outfield. He would be more happy and the marlins should look for a long term contract with him 7-10 years. To tie him up for a long long time as a marlin.

 

Willis and Beckett need to get tied up. Willis wants to sign a 5-6 year deal. He has never had an injury in his career and he is an elite Lefty pitcher. He wants to be a marlin for good and deserves to fit in. Beckett is the teams first number 1 to make it to the bigs actually. He is also the MVP of 2003 and deserves a long term contract. Get him a 3 year deal around 21 million he should jump at it. He has said he wants to stay here.

 

Hermida will be called up (a five tool player that is rated number 5 over all by alot of folks for prospects). He can do it all defense, speed on the bases, good eye, home runs. This kid is gonna be a studd. He will take over RF for the marlins as it fits him well.

 

Chris Aguila - He has been plantooning alot this year all over the Outfield, if the marlins trade off pierre he is a good choice to fill in CF. He has the speed, and arm. He is a solid hitter and has power though he hasnt shown it in the bigs (in the minors he was batting almost 400 this year lol and he is the high school HR record in the country).

 

LF I would go with Connie for 1 more year. His power numbers are down but playing a backup role and off of the bench he has hit 300 this year. And has a RISP of 335. I wouldnt be surprised if they go for a big FA here or else perhaps a trade for one of the Red's big four. They have an interest in Dunn before and still do now.

 

1B, 2B, 3B, C are all locked up for a while to come so that is solid then.

 

Here is the worst case line up

 

CF Pierre

2nd Castillo

LF Cabrera

1B Delgado

C Lo Duca

3B Lowell

RF Hermida

SS Andino

P Slot here

 

Starting Pitching

LHP D Willis "D-Train"

RHP J Beckett

LHP J Vargas "The Crow"

LHP S Olsen

RHP (We have a few guys that can compete for this in the minors if we really had to. Or Moheler back)

 

Relief

RHP R Messenger

LHP C Resop

LHP Villone

RHP AA (closer?? he did it for us before with 45 saves)

 

My keys to the offseason

1. Get a Stadium deal Done so you can raise the payroll to 85 million as stated

2. Resign Alex

3. Trade off Lowell's salary (hopefully he wins the GG to make it easier).

4. Aquire a number 5 starter or resign AJ

5. Lock up Beckett, Willis, Cabrera

6. Resign Jones or a quality closer out there. Perhaps Bj Ryan or another good solid name.

7. Get Pinnella to become the Manager for Jack is gonna retire.

 

Thoughts? Comments :mischief2

Payroll is going to be tight next year.

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Inside knowledge? Speculation (explain why you think so)?

 

Do you mean tight as in the overall payroll will be cut, not increased or that we have much of it tied up to a few players?

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Tight as in we have about half of this year's payroll already tied up in only 5 guys for next year (About $35 million). Figuring abritration for Willis, Pierre, Mota and Beckett push things well over $40 million, close to $45 million? So then we will have $45 million tied up in 9 guys and won't have a SS, much of a bullpen at all, a hole in the rotation, and lack of depth on the bench. And yeah I think payroll may be cut. Attendance stunk again this year and Loria will wind up having to shell out more money for the stadium most likely. He is already one of the more strapped for cash owners and there is no reason for him to spend more than he did this year because he is trying to make money when it comes down to it and he isn't doing it with a high-paid good team, he will try and let the rookies play.

The status of Marlins' players:

 

Signed           Control rights         Arbitration   Free agents
C  LoDuca   6.5  IO  Cabrera            CF  Pierre    OF  Encarnacion
1B Delgado 13.5  LRF Hermida            SP  Beckett   SS  Gonzalez
2B Castillo 5    CIO Willingham         RHP Mota      SP  Burnett
3B Lowell   8.5  SP  Willis -poss Arb                 SP  Moehler
LHP Villone 2    SP  Vargas                           SP  Valdez
               SP  Olsen                            RHP Jones
               RHP Resop                            RHP Alfonseca
               RHP Messenger                        RHP Mecir
               RHP Bump                             RHP Riedling
               x-RHP Kensing                        LHP De Los Santos
               x-RHP Spooneybarger                  1O  Conine
               OF  Aguila                           IF  Easley
               SS  Andino                           PH  Harris - retire?
+Leiter     1.3  IF  Wilson                           
+Pudge      2    C   Treanor
________________ IO  Dillon
         38.8

 

The status of Marlins' players:

 

Signed ? ? ? ? ? Control rights ? ? ? ? Arbitration ? Free agents
C ?LoDuca ? 6.5 ?IO ?Cabrera ? ? ? ? ? ?CF ?Pierre ? ?OF ?Encarnacion
1B Delgado 13.5 ?LRF Hermida ? ? ? ? ? ?SP ?Beckett ? SS ?Gonzalez
2B Castillo 5 ? ?CIO Willingham ? ? ? ? RHP Mota ? ? ?SP ?Burnett
3B Lowell ? 8.5 ?SP ?Willis -poss Arb ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? SP ?Moehler
LHP Villone 2 ? ?SP ?Vargas ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? SP ?Valdez
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? SP ?Olsen ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?RHP Jones
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? RHP Resop ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?RHP Alfonseca
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? RHP Messenger ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?RHP Mecir
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? RHP Bump ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? RHP Riedling
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? x-RHP Kensing ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?LHP De Los Santos
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? x-RHP Spooneybarger ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?1O ?Conine
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? OF ?Aguila ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? IF ?Easley
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? SS ?Andino ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? PH ?Harris - retire?
+Leiter ? ? 1.3 ?IF ?Wilson ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 
+Pudge ? ? ?2 ? ?C ? Treanor
________________ IO ?Dillon
? ? ? ? ? 38.8 ?

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Thats what I basically used. If you look at the talent that will potentially leave (not that all of it will) and that we will only have 20-30 (at the highest end IMO) million dollars to fill 16 roster spots, it is not a sunshine picture to me. Granted we have a lot of young cheap talent we can call up, but most of it is untested (Andino, Willingham, Resop, Aguila) can we count on these guys to contribute what vetrans have the last few year?

Trade Pierre/Lowell to the Yankees. That clears about 12 million of next year's payroll and 9 million the following year for Lowell.

 

Trade a pitching prospect or two (Johnson/Tank) to Cinci for Griffey if he's willing to come to FL, which I think he would be. He's due:

06 - 12.5 M (6.5M deferred)

07 - 12.5 M (6.5M deferred)

08 - 12.5 M (6.5M deferred)

09 - 16M club option (4M buyout)

 

He is owed deferred money until 2024. I assume we could wait to pay him the 19.5M deferred in our years until long after we have a stadium. To pay Griffey 22M for three years (counting the buyout) is a pretty good deal, IMO. Johnson should be enough if we're willing to take on al he is owed in the last four years of the deal.

 

If AJ is willing to resign, I'd let Gonzo walk and use our freed up money to sign him long term. I assume we won't be able to resign AJ, though. Maybe we could sign Millwood or Morris instead.

 

1. Castillo - 5M

2. Lo Duca - 6.5M

3. Griffey (CF) - 6M

4. Cabrera (3B) - 400K

5. Delgado -13.5M

6. Hermida (RF) - 300K

7. Conine/Aguilla/Willingham (LF) - 1 million (if Conine would accept it)/300K/300K

8. Andino (SS) - 300K

 

33.6M (includes all 3 LF listed above)

 

1. Willis - 4M (estimating)

2. Beckett - 5M (estimating)

3. Vargas - 300K

4. Olsen - 300K

5. Millwood - 7M (estimating)

 

16.5M

 

Villone - 2M

Jones - 2M (estimating)

Mota - 2M (estimating)

Resop - 300K

Bump - 300K

Alfonseca - 750K (estimating)

Messenger - 300K

 

7.65M

 

Bench

Aguila/Willingham (included above)

Treanor - 300K

Easley - 750K

Dillon - 300K

 

1.35M

 

Dead weight

Leiter - 1.3M

Pudge - 2M

 

3.3M

 

Total = $62.4 million

 

:thumbup

RHP Ryan Dempster: Has proved he can handle the closer role

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Tell that to the Cubs. They'd dump him in a heartbeat for a bonified closer.

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I watch the Cubs a lot, and Dempster's saves tend to be somewhat dramatic and never 1-2-3, but he hasn't been their problem this year. He's only blown 2-3 that I know of.

Furcal has no place on this team...he racks up alot of throwing errors, and Delgado would not compliment him well at 1B. He would probably amass 50+ errors with Delgado not being able to handle his errant throws. I myself am fine with Andido, gold glove and pedestrian bat...kind of like a certain SS we've all come to know and love..so if Gonzo walks, Andido would be fine, plus it would save money.

Furcal has no place on this team...he racks up alot of throwing errors, and Delgado would not compliment him well at 1B. He would probably amass 50+ errors with Delgado not being able to handle his errant throws. I myself am fine with Andido, gold glove and pedestrian bat...kind of like a certain SS we've all come to know and love..so if Gonzo walks, Andido would be fine, plus it would save money.

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I'm not convinced that Andino is ready to make that much of a contribution at all on offense. At least Alex gives us some pop every now and then with a lot of doubles.

Furcal has no place on this team...he racks up alot of throwing errors, and Delgado would not compliment him well at 1B.? He would probably amass 50+ errors with Delgado not being able to handle his errant throws.? I myself am fine with Andido, gold glove and pedestrian bat...kind of like a certain SS we've all come to know and love..so if Gonzo walks, Andido would be fine, plus it would save money.

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I'm not convinced that Andino is ready to make that much of a contribution at all on offense. At least Alex gives us some pop every now and then with a lot of doubles.

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Furcal is overrated, maybe not as bad as Renteria and Jeter, and overrated nontheless...especially his defense. I'd take Andido over him anyday, probably Josh Wilson too.

Trade Pierre/Lowell to the Yankees. That clears about 12 million of next year's payroll and 9 million the following year for Lowell.

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Yeah thats great and all but there is only so much more money the Yankees can eat. And lets not forget the Yankees do have a 3b (ARod) and a DH (Giambi) already, so Lowell makes no sense for them anyway. Plus the Boss usually get the old guys after a good year, not after a career horrible year.

I think the biggest thing for us is to trade Lowell, re-sign AJ, and beg Conine to tough it out one more year. We'll miss Enc's bat, but we can't afford it, so no use crying over spilled milk. Besides, Hermida can step in and *hopefully* be reasonably productive; otherwise we're screwed on offense.

 

And its not like Gonzo is a stud hitter, so if this Andino guy is as good as they say with the glove, we shouldn't lose much (and save a lot of $$$) by letting Alex walk.

 

As for the bullpen, we could resign the cheapest one between Mota or Jones, but even that might be too expensive for us. That's an area where I see us hitting the bargain basement next season (and struggling for it).

Trade Pierre/Lowell to the Yankees.? That clears about 12 million of next year's payroll and 9 million the following year for Lowell.

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Yeah thats great and all but there is only so much more money the Yankees can eat. And lets not forget the Yankees do have a 3b (ARod) and a DH (Giambi) already, so Lowell makes no sense for them anyway. Plus the Boss usually get the old guys after a good year, not after a career horrible year.

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The Yankees get rid of Kevin Brown (15M) and Bernie Williams (12M) after this year. Lowell could play 1B or they could pay half his salary and ship him to the Dodgers for a pitching prospect. George would take Lowell in a second to get Pierre.

G-Mo is still arby eligible for one more season right?