a lot of people say david wright is going to be the NL MVP for this year, but who do you think is/will be better - cabrera or wright? wright is really good, but i think pujols should be picked as NL MVP.. every year..

Right now in the NL Carlos Delgado is putting up MVP type numbers.

cabrera is a better player. but if it was willis vs. wright i'd take wright.

I know this will really get some people going but Im not so sold on David Wright yet. To me he is still in the flash in the pan stage.

 

Don't forget, Wright plays in New York so he gets tons of press. If he played for the Marlins only die-hard baseball fans would have any clue who he was. When did David Wright become Daryll Strawberry all of a sudden?

 

Lets see if he keeps it up from last year all the way to October. Right now I dont think his name should be used in the same sentence as MVP.

I'll just pretend you were joking The Don.

 

It's really a toss-up...I'd say whoever has more cheap service time left is more valuable because they're both going to be HoFers if they stay away from injury.

Very simply, Cabrera is historically good at his age, Wright is simply very good.

 

According to baseball-reference.com's "similar batters" through age feature, Cabrera's top-10 is unbelievable.

 

Hank Aaron (954) *

Frank Robinson (952) *

Orlando Cepeda (938) *

Tony Conigliaro (930)

Mickey Mantle (930) *

Joe Medwick (925) *

Hal Trosky (925)

Ken Griffey (922)

Albert Pujols (921)

Cesar Cedeno (916)

 

5 hall of famers, and at least one more (Pujols) who will be.

 

Wright's is a little more underwhelming:

 

Ken Keltner (950)

Dick Allen (939)

Hank Blalock (934)

Richie Hebner (925)

Vladimir Guerrero (925)

Eric Chavez (925)

Jim Ray Hart (919)

Ben Chapman (915)

Scott Rolen (915)

Pete Reiser (912)

 

Yeah...Cabrera's substantially better.

I agree with Shamrock that right now is a toss-up

 

But over longer term and when both reach their prime, I think Cabrera would put better power numbers.

 

Wright is better defensively, but Cabrera is not bad either

For Straw, in a year w/ 300 AB's or more, his highest avg was 284, 39 HRs (Tie for his top), 104 RBIs (2nd most ever) his Slugging was 583 and his OBP 398. That was in 1987, which was his 5th full year.

 

For Wright, his 1st year (263 ABs) he hit 293 w 14 HR's and 40 RBIs, Slug 525 OBP 332

his 2nd year he hits 306 27 102 523 388.

 

In Wright's 1st full season, his avg was higher, he hit 12 less HR's but his RBI's were 2 short, and his on base was 10pts off while his slugging was 60 points off. Not too shabby. Wright is much more a line-drive hitter than Straw ever was (more of a HR or bust guy).

 

So he isnt the 2nd coming of Strawberry, he's the 1st coming of a true 3Bman for the Mets. He's their ARod, he's what they've always needed. They've had guys like Magadan, Hojo, although Ventura did have one great year as a Met, hitting 301 with 32hr and 120rbis.

I'll just pretend you were joking The Don.

 

It's really a toss-up...I'd say whoever has more cheap service time left is more valuable because they're both going to be HoFers if they stay away from injury.

 

 

 

:lol

 

Honestly....Im half joking. But seriously, he's a a HOFamer now???? David Wright cant sniff Chubby's natural talent.

 

 

 

Very simply, Cabrera is historically good at his age, Wright is simply very good.

 

According to baseball-reference.com's "similar batters" through age feature, Cabrera's top-10 is unbelievable.

 

Hank Aaron (954) *

Frank Robinson (952) *

Orlando Cepeda (938) *

Tony Conigliaro (930)

Mickey Mantle (930) *

Joe Medwick (925) *

Hal Trosky (925)

Ken Griffey (922)

Albert Pujols (921)

Cesar Cedeno (916)

 

5 hall of famers, and at least one more (Pujols) who will be.

 

Wright's is a little more underwhelming:

 

Ken Keltner (950)

Dick Allen (939)

Hank Blalock (934)

Richie Hebner (925)

Vladimir Guerrero (925)

Eric Chavez (925)

Jim Ray Hart (919)

Ben Chapman (915)

Scott Rolen (915)

Pete Reiser (912)

 

Yeah...Cabrera's substantially better.

 

 

 

Excellent post. Im way to lazy to provide the stats that you provided to support my argument.

 

Shamrock....your a funny guy and I really do enjoy your posts but Im having a tough time with the whole "its a toss up" thing.

Good post TSwift...I've definitely looked up those comps before myself.

 

I guess I didn't address the specific question in the thread, which as "who's the better player?" Cabrera, but I do think Wright is more valuable as of now because of now because he's one more year away from arby. Cabrera is also blowing up weight-wise, which may force a move to 1B eventually. I'd still say both are pretty good bets to make the HoF.

It is not a toss-up. Cabrera is better and, if both stay healthy, should have a better career than Wright.

 

David Wright is 4 months older than Miggy, which is to say they're basically the same age. Here is how they compare career-wise:

 

 

Miggy: .301 82 HR 303 RBI

 

Wright: .303 44 HR 157 RBI

 

 

Cabrera's first year in the league he hit .267, but he was barely 20 years old. While Cabrera was playing an integral part of an eventual World Series Champion, Wright, at the same age, was hitting .270 15 HR 75 RBI in High A ball.

 

Miggy is the youngest player of all time to have back to back 30 HR and 100 RBI seasons. How many times has Wright gotten 30 HR and 100 RBI? A grand total of... 0. Yup, that's right, 0.

 

Now, since Miggy was called up, who in all of baseball has had a .300 average or better and 300 RBI or more during that span? Pujols, Manny, Tejada, A-Rod and......... Miguel Cabrera.

 

For all the talk about Miggy having no protection and thus having a subpar season... consider what he's done thus far. .333/.439/.638 - OPS of 1077. He's on pace to produce these numbers: .333 35 HR 115 RBI. If this keeps up, he's going to have a subpar season. :plain (I will admit that he hasn't yet gotten "locked in" like he did several times the past two seasons. He kind of seems to be hanging around... other teams are praying he doesn't get locked in anytime soon.

 

How about Wright, with all the protection that potent Mets lineup provides him? .313/.372/.557 That's outstanding, but it's not as good as Miggy is producing in a lineup that everyone thinks gives him no protection.

 

Last season Miggy really kind of disappeared (by his standards) in August and September. His wife gave birth early August, so that might have caused him more than a few distractions. Before that he was hitting about .350. We will see Miggy hit .350+ with 40+ HR's and 120+ RBI's a few times over the course of his career.

 

Miggy is a better player now and has a higher ceiling than David Wright.

I meant it's a toss-up based on how they both fill out their ceilings, for the record, not for this season's MVP race...my fault.

 

It's scary, but Cabrera is still some way from his ceiling...scary. I just hope he maintains enough mobility to stick at 3B. Much harder to fill than 1B.

I don't think it's a toss up for ceiling, either. I think Miggy's best injury-free season, given a reasonably good supporting cast, will be about .355 45-50 HR and 150-160 RBI. I'm not being a homer here, I really think he can do it. Manny had 165 RBI one season and I think Miggy can come close to that. Plus Cabrera hits naturally for better average and will be (and might be already) stronger than Manny.

 

I think the best season Wright can put up is more like .335 40-45 HR and 135-140 RBI. That's certainly an MVP caliber season, but it's not as good as Miggy's best season.

my projection assumes miggy moves to 1B, but I respect your opinion and wouldn't be that surprised if you turned out to be correct.

I don't think it's a toss up for ceiling, either. I think Miggy's best injury-free season, given a reasonably good supporting cast, will be about .355 45-50 HR and 150-160 RBI. I'm not being a homer here, I really think he can do it. Manny had 165 RBI one season and I think Miggy can come close to that. Plus Cabrera hits naturally for better average and will be (and might be already) stronger than Manny.

 

I think the best season Wright can put up is more like .335 40-45 HR and 135-140 RBI. That's certainly an MVP caliber season, but it's not as good as Miggy's best season.

 

 

No way Cabrera can hit .350+ striking out 130 or more times a season.

 

It'd take more than just a better surrounding core of players to get his average to jump like that. It's damn near umfathomable for me to see any hitter, much less a power hitter, sitting above .330. In that situation, going 1/3 is actually going to hurt the average.

 

Cabrera could easily see 50+ homeruns, but that average is going to be mighty hard to come by.

I think you'll see his plate eye start improving every season for awhile TSwift. He's already walking almost double the pace of 2005, which we kinda expected....but it's not easy for a hitter of his age to make an adjustment like that. I was a little worried he'd just hack.

Swift, you might be right that it would be difficult for him to hit for such a high average given 1) his propensity to strike out and 2) the likelihood that he will become a bigger power hitter as he matures and gets even bigger (although the kid is huge already). If his strike-out totals go down, so might his power, so it's possible that the combination of average and power I predict for him is nearly impossible to have. However, last season he was hitting .356 as late as August 5. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/game...=7163&year=2005 I believe his wife had birth a few weeks after that, so it is possible that his drop that month and in September were related to the birth of his daughter.

 

I think he can cut down on his strike-outs - even now he's not striking out as much as you'd expect given that he's not getting many pitches to hit and he's also trying very hard to do everything himself. He's on pace to strike out about 135 times, or just 10 more than last season. And that's with no one pitching to him and him trying to hit pitches that he should probably lay off. If he can cut down his strike outs to about 90-100 and have adequate protection (have some Rolen type guy hitting behind him, like Pujols has had), I think his best season he can hit .350 with 45 HR and 150 RBI.

I think you'll see his plate eye start improving every season for awhile TSwift. He's already walking almost double the pace of 2005, which we kinda expected....but it's not easy for a hitter of his age to make an adjustment like that. I was a little worried he'd just hack.

 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong since I've had some personal turmoil interfering with my ability to watch games thoroughly, but aren't most of the walks intentional/unintentional-intentional? From what I've seen, Miggy's still a sucker for that outside corner...just asking.

He's jacked a few of those outside-corner pitches out of the ballpark. :mischief If you're asking whether he still chases those breaking pitches low and away... he does when he's got 2 strikes on him. Not so much early in the count. He's actually pretty patient early on, but he does seem to press a little bit when the count is 0-2, 1-2, 2-2. But, that's also part of the adjustment hitters make as they mature - learning to foul those pitches off or just plain lay off them. He's on pace to get about 110 walks, which is almost 50 more than last season. It's a combination of more discipline by him and teams not pitching to him much.

 

What you have to like about what he's done this season is that he's still producing despite the fact that teams aren't pitching to him - he's on pace to do as well if not better than last season.

I think you'll see his plate eye start improving every season for awhile TSwift. He's already walking almost double the pace of 2005, which we kinda expected....but it's not easy for a hitter of his age to make an adjustment like that. I was a little worried he'd just hack.

 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong since I've had some personal turmoil interfering with my ability to watch games thoroughly, but aren't most of the walks intentional/unintentional-intentional? From what I've seen, Miggy's still a sucker for that outside corner...just asking.

I think he may have one IBB, but the rest he's had to lay off those low/outside pitches to earn his walks. As far as them intentional/unintentional almost every power hitter gets the chance to take a lot of those types of walks, it's just a matter of having enough patience to take them. I havn't seen any thay were automatic, but I've only seen 4-5 games on TV.

 

He's jacked a few of those outside-corner pitches out of the ballpark. :mischief If you're asking whether he still chases those breaking pitches low and away... he does when he's got 2 strikes on him. Not so much early in the count. He's actually pretty patient early on, but he does seem to press a little bit when the count is 0-2, 1-2, 2-2. But, that's also part of the adjustment hitters make as they mature - learning to foul those pitches off or just plain lay off them. He's on pace to get about 110 walks, which is almost 50 more than last season. It's a combination of more discipline by him and teams not pitching to him much.

 

What you have to like about what he's done this season is that he's still producing despite the fact that teams aren't pitching to him - he's on pace to do as well if not better than last season.

 

his homer against Z was a few inches outside. I liked that one

well ask yourself this question: who would you rather have as our 3rd basemen then - wright or cabrera?

In 2003, Cabrera struck out 24.28% of the time and walked 7.23% of the time.

In 2004, Cabrera struck out 21.61% of the time and walked 9.93% of the time.

In 2005, Cabrera struck out 18.25% of the time and walked 9.34% of the time.

 

So far in 2006, he's striking out 19.51% of the time and walking 15.85% of the time.

 

Those walk numbers do not include intentional walks.

 

He showed a considerable improvement in his judgement from 03 to 04. He walked less in 05, but he also made more contact. As far as what he's doing so far, it's hard to judge how his judgement has truly changed. Obviously, he's getting much less to hit, and his walks are way up, but his strikes are also up a bit as well. However, considering our current lineup, he almost has to swing at pitches he may not have chased last year because there's more pressure on him to be our primary run producer. It's alot easier to take a fastball off the outside corner when it's not the best pitch you're going to see the entire AB.

 

It'll be interesting to see how these numbers change as the season goes on, especially if Willingham continues to hit the way he's hit so far.

 

As for the comparison, I think Cabrera has a slightly higher ceiling, but they're both awesome and, without trying to hate, I think it's a pointless argument as you'd be happy to have either one. They're both going to be All-Stars year in and year out, although Wright will be the one starting as long as he's in New York and Cabs is here.

yep, hugg nails it in the bottom part of his part. that's why I say it's a tossup. As for MVP...how is Pujols NOT going to win it?